Oldmans View Of The AFC Conference Championship

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Thought I would share my views on the AFC Conference Championship between New England and Pittsburgh. Rather then dwell on the statistical figures for each team which can be found in other threads in this forum, I would like to present some significant points that should be considered when deciding which side to play in this game. It has always been my position that the better you can visualize the way a game may be played, the better chance you have of being on the right side.

First let me begin by discussing the October 31st game between these two teams. As most of you know, the Steelers won that game 34-20 wherein they opened up a first quarter lead of 21-3 due in part to turnovers and then pounded the ball on the ground to maintain control. Perhaps what some may not know or have forgotten is that New England was coming off playing the undefeated New York Jets the prior week as both teams were 5-0 and the battle was for first place in the AFC East. It was a hard fought defensive battle that resulted in the Patriots prevailing 13-7. Meanwhile Pittsburgh was coming off a bye week following a game against Dallas and had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots arriving with a string of 21 consecutive wins. Futhermore, only 90 minutes before kick-off, RB Corey Dillon was declared out of the game with a sore quad muscle, plus key WR Deion Branch was out as well as starting RT Tom Ashworth. Their should be no doubt that the Patriot game planned for Dillon the entire week and the late scratch directly impacted not only the running game to the tune of a total of 5 yards, but the entire play calling. I submit this directly affected the offensive performance of the Patriots in that game, particularly the interceptions by Brady. Once significantly behind, the Steelers could use their ground attack to chew up time and yardage. Last, having a fresh Steeler team waiting in wake of the long undefeated Patriots coming off a tough divisional battle cannot be understated as well as the mild weather that allowed Big Ben to adequately find his receivers. But that was a regular season game with a different level of intensity.

Next I would like to discuss the subject of when teams meet for a second time. I mentioned above that the first meeting in the regular season had a different level of intensity. This is extremely important as when teams reach this level of play in a championship game, their level of play must rise to meet the level presented by their opponent, otherwise the game can become lopsided. Even more important are the adjustments that each team makes off the previous game. What follows is what I believe may occur. This game will be won by the team with the most between the ears, not just the physical skills. Since Pittsburgh had so much success running the ball in the first game and it has been their pattern since Roethlisberger has been starting not to ask too much from their young quarterback, believe they will try to do the same thing in this game. Also believe that HC Belichick knows this as well and will decide to put 7 or as many as 8 in tight to stop the run and force Big Ben to try and read the varying and confusing defensive schemes consistently enough to try and beat the Patriots. Belief here is that this time around, in weather conditions that forecast for light snow and temperatures in the 20's, the Steeler offense will sputter and be inconsistent both on the ground and in the air. Now, since Corey Dillon was out of the first game for the Patriots, with all of the discussion on this particular issue, expect that the Steelers will focus their attention on stopping Dillon, which they are certainly capable of doing for the most part. But, by doing so, believe that this may very well open up the passing game for the very experienced, but more importantly poised, Brady to do damage to the Steeler secondary.

Futhermore, it has always been my position that current form is more important then season long form. An example of that was last year as Carolina made it all the way to the Superbowl and covered the spread while losing the game. I bring this up as I believe last week's Divisional Round games tell a lot about the form that these two teams reached. Although some will disagree with me, the Steelers were very fortunate to win their game against the Jets. If not for two missed late possible game winning field goals by Jet kicker Brien, the Steelers would be at home. Some will point out that their defense only gave up 3 points as the other 14 points scored by the Jets were on a punt return and interception return, both for touchdowns. Let us not forget that it was the Steelers that took an early 10-0 lead in part on their touchdown following a turnover and short field. They gave up over 4 yards per carry on the ground to the Jets running backs Martin and Jordan as well as yielding yardage in the air to Pennington. Meanwhile, Big Ben often made incorrect decisions and threw the ball into coverage and was picked off as well as looking confused at times. How might he perform against the disguised defenses thrown at him by Belichick? The touchdowns scored by the Jets should not be considered as flukes or mistakes, they were the result of a breakdown in execution. This week the team the Steelers face will be well prepared, poised, experienced and will not beat themselves and the mere fact that they were beaten by the Steelers early in the year will cause them to be even more focused. Expect a very similar level of performance that they gave against the Colts. True, the Steelers will rally around the underdog role and seeming lack of respect by the oddsmakers, but when all is said and done, the players must be able to execute and there is a significant difference in key player experience between these two teams at this level.

Last, a brief mention of the line on this game. It is my belief that the line has topped out at 3 and on game day could very well move back towards a pick, although I think that is unlikely. However, it would not surprise me to see the line move back down to 1 or 1.5 before kick-off as the line is currently being shaded toward the Steelers and belief here is that many will choose to take the points. If you like the Steelers, then by all means take the current points. If you like the Patriots, wait as the line may move to give you a better number and even if you wish not to lay any points, the moneyline will improve as well. As for me, I plan on waiting as long as possible.

Finally, an important reminder. Because the end of football season is nearing, many will choose to wager far too much on this game, often times chasing losses for the season or just because the season is coming to an end. There are possible plays everyday, every week, every month, and every year. This is just one play and should be treated as such. Make your play within your means and enjoy the game and as always, best of luck to each of you.

Overall Unit Record YTD: (46-36.3)(+9.70) 3*(0-1)(-3.30) 2*(2-0)(+4.00) 1*(42-30-1)(+9.00)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (44-31-1) 58.67%
NFL Record YTD: (12-5)(+5.30)
NCAAF Record YTD: (32-26-1)(+4.40)

Unrated Play Record
Second Half: (2-1)
Live In Game: (2-1)
Teasers: (1-1)

Plays rated 1*-3*

Good Luck All.
 
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Nice write up Ted.I assume this is a 1 unit play if it drops to under 2.Am I correct,or do you like it,a little more than that?
 

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Greenhead:

You know me well. It is a normal 1* play whether the line drops or not. If the line does not drop, then the moneyline becomes a very strong probability for me.
 

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Thanks Ted. I have been waiting for it to drop under 3 all week. Not sure if it will drop to even but that would be a coup.

Looks like The Shrink concurs also.
 

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I too have been trying to "visualize" this game and what I have been seeing is the Steelers trying to pound NE on the ground with Bettis and Staley - and failing miserably. Frankly, I don't think either team will have much success running the ball. This leaves us with Brady vs Rothlisberger - clearly a mismatch.

The only way Pitt wins this game is with a bold gameplan that puts the focus on Rothlisberger's passing skills rather than the RB's (weather permitting).
 

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I just love all the speculating and visualizing regarding the game. It helps kill the time leading to kick off. The fact of the matter is, we won't know for sure what will happen until then. For the record I like the Steelers plus the three. If the Steelers can limit their mistakes in the passing game and on special teams, they have a good chance. Also I wonder if the Patriots peaked last week with that incredible performance against Indy. Once again, we'll know in about 48 hours or so. I'll be at the game and can't wait.
 

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Ted,

Excellent stuff as usual and as many of your comments mirror my own thoughts, I thank you for saving me posting. All I would like to add is, even though I was on The Jets, I thought Pittsburgh's game plan was sad. With a whole two Week's to prepare, not a lot changed, and they reminded me of the old Baltimore. As I have said in another thread, if the weather gets up, both Teams will have an even better chance of stopping the run, and I personally would rather have my money on Brady. As for the line movement, it does seem to me a bit inconsistant. I play the exchanges and usually movements are reflected in all categories, however, there seems to be solid support for Pittsburgh at +3, but any support at +2.5 or M/L is swallowed up immediately. From experience, that gives the impression the heavy hitters are on everything opf New England but are not going to entertain a FG, which considering the value in other sporting events at the moment, is understandable.

As always, Best of luck.:103631605
 

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Also, NE has not lost to a team twice in the same year since Miami in the 2000 season. I wish I knew the exact number, but Belechick is like something like 15-0 when he plays a team the second time off a loss. I'll try and find the exact number somewhere, but it is something ridiculous. I can not see Belechick losing to a rookie qb in this situation. He will force him to make too many quick and costly decsions. NE will win the game in the end 24-14. I think it will be a battle for a while, but I think Big Ben will get beat by "little bill"
 

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Nice writeup, oldman......I think it's about right on......I'm a Steeler fan but I cannot back a team in the position they are in.....

I think the Pats give Ben a few defensive looks to confuse him....and the Pats won't have 4 turnovers this time

My money's on Belichick, Brady, and Vinitieri.....

I seriously doubt though that the books will move off the 3.....I got a piece of New England -3 at +110 earlier......
 

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A lot of words OLDMAN Ted

Can't determine who you selected. To many words. But with 3 football points this game is a big fat joke. Pats win cause they be deliberate and Pit players are too fat. The bus is a big fat joke. Pat's win by 14.5 football points. Think about! Good luck with your pick.

:dancefool :dancefool :dancefool :dancefool :dancefool
 

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OMT - excellent prognostication. I want to thank you for all the hard work and very sensible and intelligent write-ups you posted all year here at the Rx.


Best of Luck, you deserve it. wil.

I am hoping to lay 1.5 on the Pats, I can see it happening on gameday.
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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Teddy:



I respectfully disagree with you, I like the points. I think Pittsburg is the best team in football this year. They have the best defense and a solid core of veterans all over the place (QB excluded). I think the line has severly overreacted to last weeks results. Cower is gonna try to let his defense, special teams, and running game win it for him. That homefield advantage is gonna be the difference in the end.




It should be a dandy
Hitman
 

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2 playoff teams that the Pats faced in the last month

Jets Curtis Martin ran for like 39 yards. In 23-7 Pats win on the ROAD.

E. James for like 40 yards in the 20-3 beaten of the arena team.

Pats by 10.
 

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I`m going to ride n.e. with you . I also got philly -4 when it came out last sunday.


GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:howdy:
 

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i doubt this line changes much...every "expert" in the media seems to be picking the pats...or at least the large majority of them.....and people`s perception is shaded by these talking heads...that and the most recent performance...many people look at the "last game" and base their opinion on most recent performance...thus,the 3 point line....shaped as much by the last game played by the 2 teams as public perception of belichik and and brady`s edges over cowher and roethlisberger...both very real advantages for the pats,imo...


there`s a belief in boxing that more times than not,if a boxer wins the first fight,he`ll usually win the rematch......styles make fights.....i adhere to that adage...even in football..it wins more times than not

...i believe pittsburgh`s physical style is a good match-up vs new england...throw in the points and the venue....and the fact that this time,belichik doesn`t have 2 weeks to prep....

that said,imo,this is the superbowl....ashamed that this match-up has to occur in the semi-finals...

g.l. all
 
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