Oldmans Picks For Saturday 1/10/04

[oldmanTED]

Interesting match-ups for today's divisional round of the NFL playoffs. So let's get to our analysis and selections of the first game. We'll be back a bit later with the second game between Tennessee and New England.

Carolina vs St.Louis

After looking at the fundamental match-ups between these two teams, found some rather interesting results. St.Louis offensively features Mark Bulger throwing for 256 yards per game, 63% completion rate with a 22-22 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 81.4. The offensive line has allowed 43 sacks and the Rams have a 43% third down conversion rate. The running game features Marshall Faulk who has rushed for 74 yards per game with a 3.9 yards per carry and 45 receptions gaining 6.4 yards per reception. Tory Holt with 117 receptions and 14.5 yards per catch and Issac Bruce with 69 receptions and 14.2 lead the wide receiving corp. This offense will face a Carolina defense allowing 4.0 yards per carry on the ground and 198 yards per game on 57% completions with a 19-17 TD to interception ratio while collecting 42 sacks and allowing 35.6% third down efficiency. The Carolina offense is led by QB Jake Delhomme throwing for 218 yards per game, 59% completion rate with a 20-16 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 82.0. The offensive line allowed only 28 sacks and the Panthers have a 35.6% third down efficiency. The running game is led by Stephen Davis who averaged 103 yards per game with a 4.5 yards per carry. Steven Smith with 93 receptions and 13.4 yards per catch, Mushin Mohammed with 58 receptions and 16.2 yards per catch and Ricky Proehl with 28 receptions and 14.1 yards per catch lead the receiving corp. The offense will face a St.Louis defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry on the ground and 210 yards per game on 58% completions with a 23-24 TD to interception ratio while collecting 42 sacks and allowing a 35.9% third down efficiency. St.Louis special teams are a bit of a weakness with Sean Landeta having a net average of 32.9. Place kicking is good with Jeff Wilkens hitting 93% of his field goal attempts. Return teams are average. Carolina special teams are outstanding with Todd Sauerbrun averaging an impressive net average of 36.8 yards per kick and John Kasay hitting 86% of his field goal attempts. The return teams rank well in the league and provide good field position. Feeling here is that this St.Louis team is not like the greatest show on turf of a few years back and is susceptible to the run as well as the pass. Home field advantage clearly a plus for the Rams but Panthers can grind with Davis and timely passing by Delhomme to Smith or Muhammed. Expect to see both teams able to move the ball although not at will. The line is about right but with teams that appear to each have strengths to exploit their opponents weakness, the points provide value. Hence,

1* Carolina +7.5
1* Carolina/St.Louis Over 44.5


Overall Unit Record YTD: (60-40.8) 59.52% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(6-3)(+8.1) 1*(37-28-2)(+6.1)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (44-31-2) 58.67%
NFL Record YTD: (6-7-1)(-6.2)
NCAAF Record YTD: (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NBA Record YTD: (5-4)(+2.6)
NCAAB Record YTD: (12-12-1)(+0.8)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All. Check back later for analysis and selections for Tennessee vs New England.

 

[hansenbros.]

i like the way you think old man!

gl

 

[SSI]

ted ive got panthers +7.5 and patriots -6... good luck to you..

 

[Allstar]

OldmanTED,

Love the over in the Rams game today as well. Good luck today my friend!!!

ALLSTAR

 

[oldmanTED]

Hansen & SSI:

Thank you. Good luck to both of you today. My picks are shown in the RX Scorekeeper Contest thread in case you're interested. Only my write-ups remain.

 

[oldmanTED]

Allstar:

I hope we're right. Wouldn't mind sharing a win with you. Good luck today.

 

[JOEWILLIE]

Ted, sure hope you are correct on Car and New Eng cause I`m with you. Panthers were penalty and turn-over free vs Dallas. Maybe the same today.

 

[oldmanTED]

JOEWILLIE:

Hope so too! Good luck to you today. Enjoy the games.

 

[cooltedd]

interesting thoughts....i gotta pass on the early game though...too close to bet...good luck

 

[oldmanTED]

As promised, back with my analysis and selection for the second game between Tennessee and New England.

Tennessee vs New England

This game is different from all the other games this weekend as we expect to see some decent defense and the weather will play a significant role in the outcome of the game. New England offensively features QB Tom Brady throwing for 226 yards per game, 60% completion rate with a 23-12 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 85.9 and has not thrown a single interception at home. The offensive line has allowed only 31 sacks. The running game is somewhat by committee with Antowain Smith rushing for 49 yards per game with a 3.5 yards per carry average and Kevin Faulk adding 42 yards per game with a 3.6 yards per carry average. Deion Branch with 57 receptions and 14.1 yards per catch and Troy Brown with 40 receptions and 11.8 yards per catch lead the wide receiving corp. Kevin Faulk added 48 receptions and 9.2 yards per catch. The offense will face a Tennessee defense allowing 3.8 yards per carry on the ground and 238 yards per game on 60% completions with a 21-23 TD to interception ratio while collecting 40 sacks and allowing 27.7 third down efficiency and a QB rating of 76.9. The Tennessee offense features QB Steve McNair throwing for 225 yards per game, 62% completion rate with a 25-10 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 97.2. The offensive line has allowed 23 sacks and the Titans have a 40.8% third down conversion rate. The running game features Eddie George who has rushed for 65.8 yards per game with a 3.3 yard per carry average. Derrick Mason with 98 receptions and 13.6 yards per catch and Justin McCareins with 49 receptions and 17.9 yards per catch lead the wide receiver corp. The offense will face a New England defense allowing 3.4 yards per carry on the ground and 202 yards per game on 53% completions with a 11-29 TD to interception ratio while collecting 41 sacks and allowing 33.6% third down efficiency and a QB rating of 56.2. Tennessee special teams are good with punter Craig Henrich having a net average of 37.8 and place kicker Gary Anderson hitting 88% of his field goal attempts but with somewhat limited length. Return teams have been a bit of a problem allowing opponents decent field position. New England special teams have fallen a bit with Ken Walter having a net average of 33.6 and Adam Vinateri hitting only 73.5% of his field goal attempts. The return teams were outstanding providing good field position.
Feeling here is that some intangibles will loom large in this game. Tennessee is coming off an extremely hard fought and physically damaging game against Baltimore. Steve McNair is hobbling more now than in past weeks, Eddie George is playing with a dislocated shoulder, of which I am personally familiar as I dislocated my own left shoulder four times, and Jevon Kearse has an ankle sprain limiting his speed and mobility. Respect Tennessee, coach Fisher and their tenacity but it will be matched with a fresh New England squad that will be well prepared by highly respected coach Bellichick. Expect Titans to find it extremely difficult to run or throw on the Patriots particularly with the expected weather conditions. Favor Patriots short passing attack to gradually win field position and put up some points. This game will be a struggled. Just feel that situation and conditions favor Patriots at home in a tough battle. Hence,

1* New England -6
1* New England/Tennessee Under 36 (Lock in line yesterday. Recognize it has dropped to 34)


Good Luck All.

 

[Co-Captain]

Good Luck today Ted!

 

[SportSavant]

damn here is one of those tough situations where I feel opposite someone I respect tremendouly...Hansen I feel your pain, it is tough...

I like Tenness & the over, however Mr Ted whom I respect tremendously is opposite both sides...

Ted you saved me money once with your play making me save some money but I lost when I bought back due to many cappers play on Tulsa when I had G tech minus 6.5 in NCAAF college bowl.

must admit I dont have much time to cap with work & all so I often look to others for plays...

 

[SportSavant]

Ted, I have been meaning to ask you...do you middle, scalp or ever play system plays rather than good old fashion capping?

at least I have some solace in the fact that I can get the over under at 33.5

by the way...way to go on your picks...you may not get the over 23-20 as I write this however you definately capped it right...in sports anything can happen...

 

[SportSavant]

We may get our over after all!!!

onside kick recovered....lets go overtime......

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

First and foremost I am a fundamental handicapper. On rare, and I do mean rare, occasions, I will middle and/or scalp. System plays absolutely never, but I will be aware of them and factor it into my final decision.

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

If you feel strongly about your play on Tennessee and Over, please hold to your play. Remember, generally speaking, even the best handicappers have trouble winning above 57% of the time. This means 43% of the time they are wrong. So don't change. Stick to your convictions.

 

[SportSavant]

Mr Ted....I bought it to +7.5 -130 & I took the over 33.5

Feel great as we can both win!

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Good luck to you tonight. Also, I noticed late yesterday that you bumped my thread on "Money Management-Middle to Advanced Levels" that I wrote in December. Don't know what caused you to do that, but I'd like to thank you and hopefully it can provide information for posters who may not have seen it. Thanks again.