Oldmans Picks For Monday 1/12/04

[oldmanTED]

Coming off a 4-3 day yesterday, going 2-1 in college hoops and 2-2 in the NFL winning our first 3* play in the NFL playoffs. So, a nice solid profit for the day. Today, we turn to college hoops and find some interesting match-ups. I will keep the write-ups brief.

1* Providence +6 Friars miss Sanders but continue to play hard defense against quality opposition whether at home or on the road.

1* Syracuse +5.5 Orangemen go on the road but are playing excellent ball and use their confusing zone defense. Respect Tigers but feel points are worth the take in a close game.

1* Air Force +2 Falcons playing good hard nose defense and smart offense. Rams will be without starting center Matt Nelson and team averages 20 turnovers per game.

Summary:

1* Providence +6
1* Syracuse +5.5
1* Air Force +2

Overall Unit Record YTD: (71-47.4) 59.97% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(7-3)(+11.1) 1*(45-34-2)(+7.5)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (53-37-2) 58.89%
NCAAB Record YTD: (16-15-1)(+1.5)
NBA Record YTD: (5-4)(+2.6)
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8)(+22.0) (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NFL Record YTD: (11-10-1)(-2.5)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.

 

[Kojak]

I was leaning towards Air Force. Glad to see you like them. I am against you on Cuse though Forum is pretty split. Best of luck.

 

[oldmanTED]

Kojak:

Good luck to you as well. Nice going this weekend in the NFL.

 

[Kojak]

Thanks for noticing NFL play! Congrats to you on excellent Bowl Season. I was struggling there but followed you later in bowl schedule.

 

[SportSavant]

Mr Ted, did u lock in earlier with Providence & airforce? best I can find is + 5.5 & + 1...(although + 6 -113 available at pinnacle)...

Would have loved to have had your Green bay play when you played it (+6) as I was only able to find 4.5 before game time so I layed off...

forecasting is a very important element...I guess you figured 6 was the most value you would get...very wise...If you feel playing a line early warrants it I would love to hear about it...Pinnacle had Indy @ + 4-111 when it first opened...I loved that line & wish I had nailed it...now best I can find is +3.5 -115

 

[oldmanTED]

Kojak:

Thanks! This weekend was sweet in the NFL as well going 5-3 and hitting my 3* top play on Green Bay yesterday. Next Sunday should be interesting. I'll focus on hoops until then.

 

[Kojak]

What are your early leans this weekend? For sides I am looking at Philly and Indy and totals Indy under and Philly over.

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Yes, I got them early this morning before the movement. Wouldn't be surprised to see Providence go back to +6 or possibly more, but expect Air Force to go down towards a pick.

As for Green Bay, +6 was actually available as late as Friday. I would have taken the Packers getting 4 or better as in my thread, you will see that it was my strongest play of the playoffs too date and I felt they could win outright and probably should have.

As for next week, I'm letting the lines settle as I will evaluate the games as the week develops. Thus, it all depends on the situation as to whether I come in early or not. Basically, if I am satisfied with a particular number, I will take it whether it is early or late.

 

[oldmanTED]

Kojak:

No real leans at the moment for this weekends NFL action. Keeping a clear head and let the week unfold, evaluate, and then decide probably near game day.

 

[Hitman26]

Old Man Ted:

I've noticed you always seem to get some nice numbers in your college plays. What books are you using? Is if fair to say that the books may be moving the numbers after you play? Keep up the good work.

Goodluck
Hitman

 

[oldmanTED]

Hitman26:

I use a very wide variety of books. The reason that it appears that sometimes I get a good number is because I may have come in early like today. I placed my plays early morning. There are times that this doesn't always work out as I have been caught many times in a line movement and lost because I could have gotten a better number closer to game time. As I told Savant earlier in this thread, once I determine if I am satisfied with a number, I don't hesitate and go ahead and make my play. Sometimes the number is available early and sometimes I have to wait until game time.

Regarding your question on books moving the line after I play, it is fair to say that I have moved lines in the past but certainly not nearly all the time. If they have solid action on both sides of a game and are satisfied where their number is, particularly in football, the line will not be moved.

 

[SSI]

good luck tonight ted, only action for me is 2 nba games and a ML parlay in college hoops (UTC, Pitt, West KY) paying a little better than even money..

 

[oldmanTED]

SSI:

Good luck to you as well in the NBA as well as your ML parlay in college hoops.

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Ted, thats good advice you gave Kojak about keeping a clear mind at this time, in regards to the NFL. I needed to do that myself, thats why I went diving yesterday. The oceans is a known way of revitalizing yourself , both mentally and physically. Its also a good detoxicer and healer. I am fortunate to be surrounded by this clean clear natural remedy. What do you do to clear your mind both spiritually , emotionally, and stressfully. Just curious if you dont mind sharing some of your secrets to refocusing and recooperating. I could use more help with this area. Aloha CC.

 

[oldmanTED]

Captain:

Through the years I've learned to not look too far in advance and just take one day at a time and allow my thoughts for that day to develop. I try not to get too high before big games or too low after the games are completed. Overall, I try to remain calm throughout each and every day. If you allow your emotions to take over, you can find yourself very stressed during an event and eventually as time goes by, you will feel fatigued. What you did in diving in the ocean was excellent. It's important that you take mental breaks from this business. Then you feel like you can come back refreshed and ready to tackle the next day. The games will always be here when you are fresh and ready. I know that you are looking forward to this weekends NFL Conference Championships as am I, but if you keep them in perspective they will be but two games in a lifetime. Win or lose, they are no different then today's games or tomorrow's games. Treat them the same and you can relax and enjoy them, as you know that tomorrow is another day. As always, continue good luck to you.