Decided to write this thread early as I have made my plays already and anticipate possibly losing line value as game time approaches. First and foremost, let me state that the final four teams that currently remain in the tournament are all quality teams with excellent talent and coaching. There are no cinderellas here this year. These teams are filled with tough hard nosed players that will scratch and claw and fight hard for every loose ball, rebound, and defensive stop. From my view, this promises to be some excellent round ball. With that being said, I have made two plays shown below:
1* Georgia Tech +5
8.67/1 Georgia Tech Wins The Championship
Some brief reasoning. As stated, all the remaining teams are excellent. For those of you who can recall, you may have seen that during the regular season, I have mentioned more than once that I have been impressed with Georgia Tech since very early in the year, namely the Pre-Season NIT and have on more than one occasion released a 3* strong play on the Yellowjackets. That being said, I have also respected Oklahoma State the entire year and released at least one 3* play on the Cowboys. So I feel that both teams are quite capable of winning this game. For me the difference here is quite subtle. Oklahoma State has an excellent defense, strong inside play and a terrific point guard in Lucas and an outstanding talent in Allen. Their rotations are good but at times can be a bit careless with the ball, reference the first half against St.Joseph's. Georgia Tech, after what I feel was less then capable conference play, are once again showing a whole other level of play in the tournament. Coach Hewitt is doing a tremendous job with a continuos rotation of a very deep and talented team with interchangeable players that come in fresh at all times and play tight defense, crash the boards with quickness and attack the rim both offensively and defensively. The last two games, they beat quality opposition even though losing their leading scorer B.J. Elder, who I suspect will be ready to play. They have an excellent point guard in Jack plus good perimeter shooting with Lewis as well as Elder, Bynum and Moore. Plus they drive and penetrate at any time keeping constant pressure on their opponent. Defensively, they swarm to the ball and create turnovers for transition baskets. For these reasons, I see this game being close and once again therein the line provides the value. In a game that I feel the line should be between 1 and 2, the line currently stands at 5, although is 4.5 at Pinnacle. Thus the take.
Now, as to the reasoning of the future wager. Since I feel that the game promises to be close and I lean with the Yellowjackets and believe they can win outright, this means if they do win, they face either Duke or Connecticut, two teams they have beaten already this year. Plus, those two teams will be coming off a battle of the powerhouses and quite possibly could be a bit drained from their game. After all there is only one day rest before the championship. Each team will be sky high for Saturday, but Monday the energy level will be a bit different even though it is for the championship. Depth and rotation will be very important on Monday. During the regular season, on 11/26/03, I watched Georgia Tech completely dominate Connecticut as an 8 point dog 77-61 in the Pre-Season NIT on a neutral court and follow that up by winning the tournament beating Texas Tech 85-65. Futhermore, on 3/3/04 I watched Georgia Tech beat Duke on the road as a 12 point dog 76-68, in a game that the Yellowjackets controlled throughout from start to finish and the score was not truly indicative of the game dominance. With this type of situation, and with a quality team, I feel there is value in playing the future. I normally play a future wager for 10% of a rated release and have done so in this instance. Obviously, Georgia Tech has to win outright the first game with Oklahoma State, which won't be easy by any means. But, in both plays, I like the match-ups and the value so thus the plays. There are no guarantees here and certainly this oldman will not be surprised if any one of the four teams win the championship. They are all that good. Just wanted to share my reasoning.
Good Luck All.
1* Georgia Tech +5
8.67/1 Georgia Tech Wins The Championship
Some brief reasoning. As stated, all the remaining teams are excellent. For those of you who can recall, you may have seen that during the regular season, I have mentioned more than once that I have been impressed with Georgia Tech since very early in the year, namely the Pre-Season NIT and have on more than one occasion released a 3* strong play on the Yellowjackets. That being said, I have also respected Oklahoma State the entire year and released at least one 3* play on the Cowboys. So I feel that both teams are quite capable of winning this game. For me the difference here is quite subtle. Oklahoma State has an excellent defense, strong inside play and a terrific point guard in Lucas and an outstanding talent in Allen. Their rotations are good but at times can be a bit careless with the ball, reference the first half against St.Joseph's. Georgia Tech, after what I feel was less then capable conference play, are once again showing a whole other level of play in the tournament. Coach Hewitt is doing a tremendous job with a continuos rotation of a very deep and talented team with interchangeable players that come in fresh at all times and play tight defense, crash the boards with quickness and attack the rim both offensively and defensively. The last two games, they beat quality opposition even though losing their leading scorer B.J. Elder, who I suspect will be ready to play. They have an excellent point guard in Jack plus good perimeter shooting with Lewis as well as Elder, Bynum and Moore. Plus they drive and penetrate at any time keeping constant pressure on their opponent. Defensively, they swarm to the ball and create turnovers for transition baskets. For these reasons, I see this game being close and once again therein the line provides the value. In a game that I feel the line should be between 1 and 2, the line currently stands at 5, although is 4.5 at Pinnacle. Thus the take.
Now, as to the reasoning of the future wager. Since I feel that the game promises to be close and I lean with the Yellowjackets and believe they can win outright, this means if they do win, they face either Duke or Connecticut, two teams they have beaten already this year. Plus, those two teams will be coming off a battle of the powerhouses and quite possibly could be a bit drained from their game. After all there is only one day rest before the championship. Each team will be sky high for Saturday, but Monday the energy level will be a bit different even though it is for the championship. Depth and rotation will be very important on Monday. During the regular season, on 11/26/03, I watched Georgia Tech completely dominate Connecticut as an 8 point dog 77-61 in the Pre-Season NIT on a neutral court and follow that up by winning the tournament beating Texas Tech 85-65. Futhermore, on 3/3/04 I watched Georgia Tech beat Duke on the road as a 12 point dog 76-68, in a game that the Yellowjackets controlled throughout from start to finish and the score was not truly indicative of the game dominance. With this type of situation, and with a quality team, I feel there is value in playing the future. I normally play a future wager for 10% of a rated release and have done so in this instance. Obviously, Georgia Tech has to win outright the first game with Oklahoma State, which won't be easy by any means. But, in both plays, I like the match-ups and the value so thus the plays. There are no guarantees here and certainly this oldman will not be surprised if any one of the four teams win the championship. They are all that good. Just wanted to share my reasoning.
Good Luck All.
