Oldmans Pick For The Alamo Bowl

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Coming off a 2-1 day, nearly sweeping, winning one of our two teasers with GB/Balt but losing a heartbreaker with Ind/Minn. Our only side was a win in hoops with North Carolina. Today we turn to the Alamo Bowl with Nebraska vs Michigan State.

Nebraska plays in the Big 12 and brings to the game a team that has lost it's head coach following the regular season. The Huskers feature QB Jammal Lord who is a talented athlete that does more with his legs than his arm. He is a very capable runner but leaves a lot to be desired when throwing, as he completed only 48% of his passes with a 6-8 TD to interception ratio. The overall team rushing uses a multitude of backs and is decent though not outstanding and the wide receiving corp is capable but not spectacular. The defense is above average, particularly in the secondary, where they allowed only 50% completions with 29 interceptions. Special teams are very capable, particularly the punting game, but the place kicking can be a bit erratic at times. Returns are pretty solid.

Michigan State plays in the Big 10 and comes into the game featuring QB Jeff Smoker who completed 63% of his passes and had a 21-11 TD to interception ratio. The running game also uses a multitude of backs and is complimentary at best to the aerial game. The defense is solid against the run only allowing 3.1 yards per carry but the secondary has given up 55% completions with a 27-15 TD to interception ratio. Special teams are very good with quality punting and place kicking and an a exceptional return team.

In this game, each teams offensive strength is facing the other teams defensive strength. Nebraska will tend to try and move the ball on the ground which plays into the strength of Michigan States defensive line. Michigan State will try to throw the ball which will play into the strength of Nebraska's secondary. The special teams should offset, although an edge goes to the Spartans. The teams faced one common opponent in Penn State with both playing at home. Nebraska won 18-10 early in the season and Michigan State concluded its season winning 41-10. There are some indications that the Huskers are playing for their former head coach Frank Solich who was fired.

Feeling here is that QB Jeff Smoker will outperform his counterpart QB Jammal Lord. Lord has never really lived up to his potential and tends to make too many mistakes in judgment. The Spartans played the elite teams in the Big 10 very well losing to Michigan 20-27 and Ohio State 23-33 while beating Minnesota 44-38 and Iowa 20-10. The Huskers got wiped out by the Big 12 elite losing to Texas 7-31, Kansas State 9-38 and Missouri 24-41 while beating up on the weaklings decisively. Hence,

1* Michigan State +3.5

Overall Unit Record YTD (All Sports): (42-24.3) 63.35% 3*(5-1)(+11.7) 1*(27-19-2)(+6.0)
Overall W/L Record YTD (All Sports): (32-20-2) 61.54%
NCAAF Record YTD: (9-2)(+12.8) (Bowl Game Record 7-2 Included)
NFL Record YTD: (6-6-1)(-2.9)
NCAAB Record YTD: (12-9-1)(+4.1)
NBA Record YTD: (5-3)(+3.7)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.
 

Smells like victory!
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i like your pick

thanks for all the hard work

keep it up

vol
 

ATL

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OMT- I like the points you brought up about the opposing strengths. This Msu front five on D has been pretty stout, and I think they can make the difference here. Minny is a pretty good running team and the Spartans handled them nicely. Anytime you make Jamaal Lord pass the ball, the advantage is to the defense, no matter how spotty their secondary. I think that sparty has had enough prep time to know what to look for and I think Smoker will have some success. Longwinded way of saying I agree. Good Luck
 

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Aaaaaah DAMN! We're on opposite sides tonight. I think the Huskers will win easily.

I recently had my ass chewed out by a regular on this site for posting my contradictory opinion in his thread. SO, if you would like to hear MY thoughts on this game, let me know.
 

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Pete,
Fire away. I'm sure most of the regulars around here regard you as one of the better cappers here. Go ahead and post your thoughts; there's always going to be a few idiots around here.
 

"It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort o
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Thanks Ted. Fire away, Pete! LT
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Professional At All Times
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LSUpete:

I have no problem whatsoever if you post a contradictory opinion in any of my threads. The value of this forum is to get opposing as well as like points of view in order that each of us may make informed decisions on our plays. I may not get into a debate over anyone's opinion as I will respect their ideas and choices of sides. Please feel free to add your thoughts. They are valuable to the forum.
 

bigjimmy
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That's what the forum is all about in my opinion. Sharing all the pros and cons on both sides so we can make an informed decision. Thanks for all your efforts
 

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ATL:

You brought up some good past history with Minnesota. Please don't feel like you were being longwinded. Not at all. Information is one of the keys to our joint success. Please add your thoughts and information freely.
 

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volhound:

Thanks for your continued support. Not so much for the plays as much as your awareness of the time and effort required to not only try to make a solid selection but putting out the write-up as well.

Thanks to everyone else as well for your responses and support. It's what keeps this oldman going.
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LSU, did you read the current article here regarding posters not posting because of "flamers" etc? Present your thoughts, contribute to the folks who understand that being wrong is apart of the game, not the brightest side of this past time, but certainly VERY REAL....SOOOOO LET IT FLY MAN!
 

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Mario:

I'd like to tell you that I either have an opinion or a lean but honestly, tonight I have neither, because the current line of 49 is just about where I see the game falling. Too tough for this oldman to call. Sorry!
 

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Darn Ted , we on opposite sides, but as always best of luck to you today. Aloha CC
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Hi Ted,

I have Been watching your picks as of the BOwl season and I respect your opionns, I was hoping to get the nod on the under ... I am feeling like Nebraska 21 ---17,

Mario
 

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Captain:

It's all good. We agree to disagree on this one. Good luck to you as well. Big week ahead. Great time of year.
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Professional At All Times
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Kojak:

Nice to have you along. Should be a good game. Best of luck to you as well.
 

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Mario:

Do not, and I repeat, do not let my opinion influence you in any way if you have a strong opinion on the total, because I have none. If you see it as 21-17, that is well under the total which would warrant a play. Whatever you decide to do, best of luck to you.
 

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