Hoping not to lose the good will received following the Conference Championships, thought I would share my thoughts on tonight's game between Arizona and Pittsburgh. Before I do however, I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who responded to my football threads throughout the entire year. It was you who motivated me to have one of the more successful years in recent memory and hopefully you were able to make some money along the way. So with that let's get started.
Arizona comes into this game having beaten Atlanta 30-24 at home, Carolina 33-13 on the road, and Philadelphia 32-25 at home. In each of these games the Cardinals jumped out well ahead with good running from James and quick strikes from Warner. The Cardinal defense struggled to hold off comebacks by Atlanta and Philadelphia but continued to turnover Carolina in route to an easier win.
Pittsburgh comes into this game having beaten San Diego 35-24 and Baltimore 23-14 both at home. In these two games, the Steelers steadily ground down there opponents with their running game behind Parker and their aerial game behind Roethlisberger's timely connections. The Pittsburgh defense put enough stops on their opponents to gain separation.
In this match-up, belief here is that the Cardinals will not be able to get out to an early lead primarily because of the Pittsburgh defense. Many believe that Warner will attack quickly to Fitzgerald and Boldin as he has done against their 3 previous opponents, particularly comparing Pittsburgh defense to Philadephia's defense when blitzing. This just isn't the case. Philadelphia is a reckless blitzing defense that is very risky. The Steelers play a very different defense. They primarily use their front 4 to stop the run with Polamalu coming up from free safety. They will normally shift and disguise their blitzes and rather stay in a conventional defense with coverage forcing their opponent to try an run, which they have been unable to do, as the Steelers yield only 3.2 ypc and I fully expect James to find it difficult to hit gaps in this wall led by Harrison and Woodley. As for the quick strikes, Warner will find that with more coverage in the secondary, it won't be so easy to find open receivers, particularly with the speed on the Steeler linebackers and one can expect that Polamalu will be spying on Fitzgerald from his safety position. This unit only yielded 9.9 ypc for the season. This is an extremely sound defensive unit, not only in athletic talent but in execution.
As for the Steelers, they will have the option to run or pass in this match-up as the Cardinals yield 4.0 ypc on the ground, so fully expect Parker and Moore to have success on the ground. This should provide Roethlisberger the added dimension of the play action both for short and long passes as the Cardinals yield 11.4 ypc. Fully expect the combination of Ward, Holmes, Miller and Washington to find open spots in the Cardinal secondary and don't expect to see much pressure on Big Ben here.
When it comes to championship games, the teams that win, can run the ball, stop the run, and have the best defense. This all points to the Steelers and they are peaking at just the right time. For those who may have checked my thread in the Tracker Forum, you know that I made my play on this game a couple of hours after the line was posted. Even though this game has my top rating, I urge you to be sensible about your wager today. Too many players go all in on the Superbowl. Please don't do that. Play an amount you are comfortable with and enjoy the game! Hence,
5* Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) Bookmaker
Year To Date Record: 50-40 (+31.55)
5* (5-1)(+19.00)
4* (13-10)(+11.12)
3* (26-25)(-1.44)
2* (2-1)(+1.90)
1* (4-3)(+0.97)
Good Luck Everyone!
Arizona comes into this game having beaten Atlanta 30-24 at home, Carolina 33-13 on the road, and Philadelphia 32-25 at home. In each of these games the Cardinals jumped out well ahead with good running from James and quick strikes from Warner. The Cardinal defense struggled to hold off comebacks by Atlanta and Philadelphia but continued to turnover Carolina in route to an easier win.
Pittsburgh comes into this game having beaten San Diego 35-24 and Baltimore 23-14 both at home. In these two games, the Steelers steadily ground down there opponents with their running game behind Parker and their aerial game behind Roethlisberger's timely connections. The Pittsburgh defense put enough stops on their opponents to gain separation.
In this match-up, belief here is that the Cardinals will not be able to get out to an early lead primarily because of the Pittsburgh defense. Many believe that Warner will attack quickly to Fitzgerald and Boldin as he has done against their 3 previous opponents, particularly comparing Pittsburgh defense to Philadephia's defense when blitzing. This just isn't the case. Philadelphia is a reckless blitzing defense that is very risky. The Steelers play a very different defense. They primarily use their front 4 to stop the run with Polamalu coming up from free safety. They will normally shift and disguise their blitzes and rather stay in a conventional defense with coverage forcing their opponent to try an run, which they have been unable to do, as the Steelers yield only 3.2 ypc and I fully expect James to find it difficult to hit gaps in this wall led by Harrison and Woodley. As for the quick strikes, Warner will find that with more coverage in the secondary, it won't be so easy to find open receivers, particularly with the speed on the Steeler linebackers and one can expect that Polamalu will be spying on Fitzgerald from his safety position. This unit only yielded 9.9 ypc for the season. This is an extremely sound defensive unit, not only in athletic talent but in execution.
As for the Steelers, they will have the option to run or pass in this match-up as the Cardinals yield 4.0 ypc on the ground, so fully expect Parker and Moore to have success on the ground. This should provide Roethlisberger the added dimension of the play action both for short and long passes as the Cardinals yield 11.4 ypc. Fully expect the combination of Ward, Holmes, Miller and Washington to find open spots in the Cardinal secondary and don't expect to see much pressure on Big Ben here.
When it comes to championship games, the teams that win, can run the ball, stop the run, and have the best defense. This all points to the Steelers and they are peaking at just the right time. For those who may have checked my thread in the Tracker Forum, you know that I made my play on this game a couple of hours after the line was posted. Even though this game has my top rating, I urge you to be sensible about your wager today. Too many players go all in on the Superbowl. Please don't do that. Play an amount you are comfortable with and enjoy the game! Hence,
5* Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) Bookmaker
Year To Date Record: 50-40 (+31.55)
5* (5-1)(+19.00)
4* (13-10)(+11.12)
3* (26-25)(-1.44)
2* (2-1)(+1.90)
1* (4-3)(+0.97)
Good Luck Everyone!
