Oldmans Pick For Sunday 5/16/04 - 3* Strong Play Alert

[oldmanTED]

Decided to write this thread early as this is a strong play for me and I have already taken the number and expect it to move quickly. Coming off a 1-0 day yesterday winning with Minnesota. Before focusing my attention on Game 6 of the New Jersey/Detroit series on Sunday, just a brief comment about today's Indiana/Miami series and the San Antonio/Los Angeles series. As I had previously stated in an earlier thread, I would be passing all Game 5's except perhaps Minnesota. This still remains the case as I have absolutely no feel for what to expect in Game 5 of the Indiana/Miami series. As for Game 6 of the San Antonio/Los Angeles series, I can honestly make a case for both sides of this game, so therefore I will be passing this game as well. I do however, have a strong opinion on Game 6 of the New Jersey/Detroit series.

This match-up began with my thoughts that it would be a close, hard fought, intense series, but the Pistons surprised me at the beginning by clearly showing a match-up advantage at all positions except point guard as they quickly jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the series. Since then, this series has completely changed as the Nets energy level and ability to successfully get transition baskets as well as defend equally as well as the Pistons has gotten them a 3-2 advantage, having won three in a row, and now going home for the close out game. Fully expect the Nets to bring the same level of intensity at home that they did in Games 3 and 4 as they will be completely focused to eliminate the Pistons from the playoffs. Believe the Pistons are reeling from not only losing the last three games after being ahead 2-0, but also, losing Game 5 in triple overtime. Plus the Pistons have a significant injury disadvantage with Rasheed Wallace being somewhat limited in his mobility due to his foot injury. Last, once again, as expected the linesmaker continues to use the past line from the previous two games played in New Jersey without adjustment. Feeling here is there is excellent line value in this particular spot and therefore, I am releasing my first 3* strong play of the playoffs. Hence,

3* New Jersey -3

Overall Unit Record YTD: (183-147.5)(+35.5) 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(10-6)(+10.2) 1*(148-115-7)(+20.3)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (159-121-7) 56.79%

NBA Regular Season Final Record YTD: (17-12-2)(+5.8)
NBA Playoff Record YTD: (9-7-2)(+1.3)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.

 

[richdude57]

HEY TED: WHERE CAN U BET ON THE NETS NOE.I AM WITH PINN. & BET ROY. AND THEY ARE NOT UP YET? THANKS AND GLTU. I LIKE UR WRITE UPS. DO U HAVE AN OPINION ON ROY JONES & CARVER? THANKS AGAIN THE DUDE &gt

~

 

[HNYLOC]

Olympic

 

[Mr.Leisure]

Love this pick!I`m all over it.
THANKS TED
Hey dude it`s up at bet365 and abc islands too

 

[dolphin]

Seems quite plausible OMT...

Nets now 17-2 SU, 16-3 ATS at Home v. East in playoffs since a series opening loss to Pacers in '02. Who would want to fight that, guessing the game is close enough for coaching differential to matter? If a great coach is in his first year with a very good team, how much is the advantage over a kid coach with a group of 7-8 players who have spent 2+ years deep in the playoffs? I guess it shows in not fouling Billups before he shot the three leading to OT, but that was the players' fault as well. Nets have cherished their "forgotten" and underdog status, and their resulting extra bonding that has developed will hardly loosen before taking out the Pistons, a team with arrogance before proof. Detroit - "We have Larry Brown. We have Rasheeeeeeeeeeeeed. We are like the Bad Boys revisited. We're losing. We're losing. This can't be happening!!! Martin's gone - our smarts and depth will now crush you. You gave Billups a free opportunity - NOW you will pay for inferior coaching! We're losing. What the f**k!! We'll be back next year...just hope we don't play the Nets again

"

 

[oldmanTED]

Mr. Leisure
Dolphin
HNYLOC
rich dude

Thanks for your comments and helping dude with pointing him to books with the available line. As for an opinion on the Jones & Carver fight tonight, I have none. I rarely wager on boxing although am aware of some of the better fighters. Sorry I can't give you anymore than that. Just the truth here. Continued best of luck to each of you throughout the playoffs.

 

[Newbee_KC]

Ted:

I don't really recall if I've ever seen you post a 3* play. But I love it. I got that same Minny game 5 feeling! It's incredible, I know absolutely nothing about the NBA! I didn't even know what a 3 second violation was. But it's been a great winning experience following you.

Let me do the dance of joy for you!

:

^boogie:

 

[Newbee_KC]

I'd like to rephrase one of my statements.
But it's a great winning experience following you.

 

[cfbguy]

i agree with you ted. as for todays miami/indiana game its hard to understand what were seeing. is miami playing over thier heads or is the pacers spent from rolling thru the season like they did? is miami as good as they are showing? as for lakers/spurs its easy to say this series is over after finding out god is a laker fan given thier miracle last half second shot in game 5. the talk out of L.A. is all about the cloud the team is on. fans and players alike have declared an end to this series. the spurs are a proud champion whove been reading and hearing the same thing. im inclined to take the spurs+4.5. my line is lakers-2. this is a classic let down game. with no court date for bryant to race back to la he wont have the adrenalin rush thats been propelling him as it has. but its going to be a great game.

 

[Newbee_KC]

Man that LAL game was close for a little! When Horry told the referee "Watch me I'm going to foul Shaq" ,I knew the game was Lakers! Is it me or it seemed like it was set up, due to all the hype about LAL to confuse the gamblers. Getting us to think SAS? But got lucky with the Miami game! Took the over. Won by 1 point. Hard win, I was on the edge of my sit ready to use the bathroom, if lost! Hahaha! Looking forward to NJ game. Thanks Ted.

 

[oldmanTED]

Newbee_KC:

Thanks for the boogie dance. Made this oldman smile.

Congrats on winning yesterday with the Lakers and the Over in the Indiana/Miami game. Try not to read too much into the hype and whether or not the linesmaker is trying to get "us to think" about a particular team. Cap the game, look for line value, commit to your play, and use proper money management. All the extraneous thoughts will just tend to confuse the player.

Regarding today's game, as I have said this is a strong play for me but since you are new to this, I want you to fully understand what this means. Each of my units represent a 1% play of my bankroll. Therefore, today's play, I will be risking 3% of my bankroll. Too date, out of 280 plays made in all sports, I have only released 16 of these plays going 10-6 for plus 10.2 units. I'm telling you this so that you understand that these are highly selective yet by no means a certainty as the record shows. So please do not load up on this game as anything can happen in any contest. That's why they play the games. Since the line is moving higher, as was expected, if you feel that you have laid out too much at risk in this game, consider buying back some on the other side and possibly middling the game and winning both sides. The last thing we want to do is blow our profit or our bankroll on one particular play. Just wanted to share my thoughts with you.

 

[ESQAJM]

oldman: I have Nets +340 to win the series, which I bet after they were down 1-0. I was going to hedge by betting the Detroit ML today.

But after reading your writeup and opinions,(for which I have a lot of respect) I'm going to stand pat and root for a Net win
ESQAJM

 

[oldmanTED]

ESQAJM:

First, thank you for your kind words. More importantly, congratulations on having the courage to play the Nets +340 after such an embarassing first game loss. I had no such courage and have said that early in this series, the player match-ups had favored the Pistons, but believe that is no longer the case. For what it is worth, if I were in your position, I would not hedge as well. You are sitting in a very advantageous position with needing only an outright win at a great price. It should go without saying, but the very best wishes for you tonight. Enjoy the game!

 

[jwblue]

I like the pick Ted!

GL to us.

IS

 

[winbet]

The Pistons look cooked and opinions aside always remember the old adage, the only good bet is a hedged bet.

 

[oldmanTED]

InSpades:

Glad you like the play. Best of luck to you tonight.

 

[oldmanTED]

Winbet:

Been thinking about you and recall that you hold a future on the Pistons to win the title. Must admit that after the first two games, they appeared most formidable and capable of playing with all the remaining teams. That being said, certainly have watched a change in play these past three games. As you probably already know, I too believe that hedging is a wise thing to do, as I chose to do while having Georgia Tech to win the NCAA Championship but believed the Yellowjackets to be overmatched by Connecticut which turned out to be the case. Truly believe that there are times to hedge and times not to hedge and that each decision should be made on a case by case basis. In this particular case, if the attempt to close out was not following a three game win streak, a triple overtime road win, key injuries, and on the road, I would hedge. But in light of the current set of circumstances, I would choose to hold the play and not hedge. That being said, as always, they still have to play the game, and nothing is certain. Respect your opinion. Just wanted to share my thoughts with you. Continued best of luck to you.

 

[Newbee_KC]

Thanks for the feed back, Ted! Always very much appreciated! Thank you again.

The Newb

 

[winbet]

Ted,
True words as always. I have hedged the Pistons bet to make a profit but as is the biggest weakness in a gambler, greed, I held on to enough that if they won this series the profit would have been more.

I hope that if they get beat tonight that you will cover as your 3* and 5* bets should be seen as shining examples of how often an increase in stake is warranted.

Just on a side note and accepting my ignorance of NBA, I felt that Teams that have been out for the count have found something extra. Until I read your post I was thinking this might be the case tonight

All in all, I have had a very profitable first season in NBA thanks to this Forum. What started as a bit of fun soon turned to being a part of my betting bank. I would also like to say that my biggest losses this year were when I got cocky and backed my own judgement. The lesson is, always listen to people who know more than you.

Good Luck tonight Ted and look forward to exchanging views on the NFL.

 

[DENIRO]

"playing like its do or die"

yes if det loses this game det is out, however i believe nj will play like its the last game also.

they know it will be 5x as hard in game 7 at det

they know they have to close it tonight