Oldmans Pick For Friday 5/14/04

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As I had mentioned in my previous thread, the only Game 5 in which I head a lean was in the Minnesota/Sacramento series. So my focus today is on that game.

From my view, Game 4 provided game play that was inconsistent with what I had seen in the previous games of the series. Chris Webber, who I had written about at length, had his playoff game of the year with 28 points making his first 6 shots and allowing the Kings to relax early as they built a 17 point lead over a Wolves team that was clearly lacking focus, for whatever reason, as they were shooting bricks on open looks and committed an incredible 24 turnovers, this from the second best team in the league at protecting the ball. Yet even with these performances, the Wolves wiped out the 17 point lead by the late third quarter and kept the game within two points until mid fourth quarter when they continued to turn the ball over and allowed the Kings enough separation such that they could no longer recover. Feeling here is that we will see a reversal of play tonight as interviews with the Wolves players have indicated that they know full well that they did not protect the ball in Game 4. Futhermore, can't expect Webber to perform at the same level on the road. Fully expect to see a highly motivated and intense Wolves team that takes care of the ball, is selective in their shots with better results at home in front of a frenzied crowd. Look for better performances from the big three, Garnett, Cassell, and Sprewell as well as the compimentary players. Hence,

1* Minnesota -5.5

Overall Unit Record YTD: (182-147.5)(+34.5) 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(10-6)(+10.2) 1*(147-115-7)(+19.3)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (158-121-7) 56.63%

NBA Regular Season Final Record YTD: (17-12-2)(+5.8)
NBA Playoff Record YTD: (8-7-2)(+0.3)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.
 

Rx Senior
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OldManTed,

it does not bother you that the underdog is 3-0-1 in this series? Gettting points seem like a value.

Take Care,
Ku
 

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Hello Ted,

Just the thread I was looking for! I'm on it! Thank you for your support (I feel like I'm doing a Bartles & James commercial)!

The Newb
 

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oldirtyku:

Was aware of the ATS record for the series as mentioned it in my thread for Game 4. As I've stated often times before, I am a fundamental handicapper first, situational handicapper second and trend handicapper third. In watching Game 4 closely, truly believe that the Kings got off to the large lead due to the uncharacteristic play of Webber and the incredible lack of focus and number of turnovers by the Wolves. Just don't see that happening with the Wolves at home tonight and focused to a man on protecting the ball. Without turnovers, plus more intensity from the Wolves, with more attack to the hoop, see the Kings struggling to stay close in this Game 5 situation.
 

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Newbee_KC:

I like that.
icon_biggrin.gif
Best of luck tonight and enjoy the game.
 

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Ted,

Do you have any thoughts or comments about the NJ/Det game. Just wanted some insight if you can? Thank you.
 

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Newbee_KC:

Have to start this response with a caveat. At the outset of this series, I had stated in my thread for Game 1 that I expected a hard fought, intense battle between these two teams and thus released the Nets +5.5 only to see the Pistons totally control the game as they had player match-up superiority in all positions except point guard and thus won 78-56. In Game 2, we took advantage of those match-ups and released Detroit -5 and won handily 95-80 but noticed a change in transition pace and thus in Game 3 took the Nets -3 and got the win 82-64. I passed on Game 4 as I was uncertain exactly how the game might play out. That is the case here. My sense is that the early match-up problems for the Nets have be overcome and the series is now playing at the level of intensity I expected at the outset. Because of that, it would appear that the value tonight is within the line. My initial thoughts when seeing the opening line was that it was too high and if these teams are truly going to play tough taking the points would appear to be the side. To me this game could very well be similiar to last night's game between the Spurs and Lakers. That being said, this game did not warrant a level for me to release it as a play as there is still uncertainty in my mind how this game will play out. Hope that helps you to some degree. Best of luck to you tonight.
 

Pour your misery down on me
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hello ted,Going to ride minn. with you.Had a bad night last night. I lost my discipline last night and bet a 2unit half-time bet,loser.I was chasing the spurs 1st half bet I lost.
good luck to you !!!!
 

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Mr. Leisure:

Nice to have you along. As for last night, just put it behind you and consider it just part of a long learning experience. We learn more from our mistakes, particularly chasing, then we do from our successes. Best of luck tonight.
 

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Solid job again Ted! Maybe it's time for me to stop capping and become a full time rider.

Congrats
GP
1036316054.gif
 

Pour your misery down on me
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Thanks for the winner, again ted.In my opinion you are the best handicapper on this forum .
mr. leisure
 

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Ted!

GREAT CALL!!!!!!! I knew it was solid. I had this feeling after your last post. I was sure that you were going to post what I liked. You helped me reinforce my pick. Finally up for the week! Came a long way! Thank you! Looking forward to next post.

The Newb
 

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