congrats on your late victory in overtime with California in NCAAB yesterday...kind of salvaged the day...
unfortunately all I managed was a push...myself, you see when i was shopping the lines Pinny had -4 +102... Of course I could have bought the 1/2 point & brought it down to 3.5 -108, however I decided to go with the + vig
in the past I would have almost always bought the 1/2 point in that case, however many who I respect on this forum advise that paying more than 6 cents for a 1/2 point in the Long run is not worth it...so I calculated the -4 +102 to be the better line over the long run...certainly doesn't feel like that after last nite's 4 point victory...
what would you have done if presented with the same choice ted? -3.5 -108 or -4 +102?
unfortunately all I managed was a push...myself, you see when i was shopping the lines Pinny had -4 +102... Of course I could have bought the 1/2 point & brought it down to 3.5 -108, however I decided to go with the + vig
in the past I would have almost always bought the 1/2 point in that case, however many who I respect on this forum advise that paying more than 6 cents for a 1/2 point in the Long run is not worth it...so I calculated the -4 +102 to be the better line over the long run...certainly doesn't feel like that after last nite's 4 point victory...
what would you have done if presented with the same choice ted? -3.5 -108 or -4 +102?
Savant:
Thanks, I needed to win to avoid being swept yesterday due to the San Antonio debacle. To answer your question, I would not have bought the half point. I rarely buy a half point in hoops. It is generally when I envision that the teams are very evenly matched and the line is low and reflects how close they are. In last night's game, I really liked Cal and they were winning comfortably late. I was surprised that Oregon caught the Bears and sent the game to overtime. Buying points in hoops just makes it tougher to turn a profit against the vig. Your long term percentage has to increase. I'll take a push any time and move on to the next play. Good luck tonight.
Thanks, I needed to win to avoid being swept yesterday due to the San Antonio debacle. To answer your question, I would not have bought the half point. I rarely buy a half point in hoops. It is generally when I envision that the teams are very evenly matched and the line is low and reflects how close they are. In last night's game, I really liked Cal and they were winning comfortably late. I was surprised that Oregon caught the Bears and sent the game to overtime. Buying points in hoops just makes it tougher to turn a profit against the vig. Your long term percentage has to increase. I'll take a push any time and move on to the next play. Good luck tonight.
ted, thought id post my plays in your thread again, i went 2-0 yesterday with wash and sac both winning.. for today ive got:
Clev +2 (my capped line clev -2)
Mem +3 (my capped line PK)
Atl +12.5 (my capped line det-9)
Tor +6.5 (my capped line Tor +4)
Ind +2 (my capped line Ind -3)
Just so you can see the reason i played what i did..
Clev +2 (my capped line clev -2)
Mem +3 (my capped line PK)
Atl +12.5 (my capped line det-9)
Tor +6.5 (my capped line Tor +4)
Ind +2 (my capped line Ind -3)
Just so you can see the reason i played what i did..
SSI:
Congrats on the sweep yesterday. I see we will be on opposite sides tonight but it's all good. I was swayed by the last meeting between these two teams and the board dominance by New Orleans plus the loss of Artest to the Pacers. But, that cost me last night as the Kings injuries made no difference in the outcome but made me pass on the Kings. They looked very good last night. Good luck tonight on all your plays.
By the way, I hope you didn't mind that in my thread in the College Hoops Forum, I gave you kudos by name in a reply to a question from William Money on MM. Perhaps you didn't catch it, but if I was out of line, please tell me if you would prefer that I protect your privacy a bit more in the future.
Congrats on the sweep yesterday. I see we will be on opposite sides tonight but it's all good. I was swayed by the last meeting between these two teams and the board dominance by New Orleans plus the loss of Artest to the Pacers. But, that cost me last night as the Kings injuries made no difference in the outcome but made me pass on the Kings. They looked very good last night. Good luck tonight on all your plays.
By the way, I hope you didn't mind that in my thread in the College Hoops Forum, I gave you kudos by name in a reply to a question from William Money on MM. Perhaps you didn't catch it, but if I was out of line, please tell me if you would prefer that I protect your privacy a bit more in the future.
sorry i missed that ted, thanks for the kind words.. it took me about 10yrs to even realize what a bankroll was.. Of course when i started, i only played football for the first 8yrs or so. the last 3-5 years have been pretty successful and thats where my bankroll has come from.. I wish i had realized this sooner.. I honestly think 57% is achievable but not 60% over the long haul.. Im so focused on going 70-50 over 120 plays, thats why ive stopped posting many plays, im trying to streamline my playing. Now today ive got 5 going, ive spent the last couple of weeks fine tuning my capping. sorry for rambling and looking forward to tonights card, usually friday is sort of my off day but not today..
my strategy breaks down like this ted.
strive for 70-50 record per month, broken down into 4 plays per day average. includes all sports. equals to a 57% win percentage.
Play $200 on every play, if 70-50 record is achieved then i will clear $3000.. at this rate the bankroll can grow and i can enjoy some of the fruits of my labor.. sort of 50/50 now.. i let the account grow, i spend about half of it and i keep some in a safe for cash purposes.. My bankroll is basically at 2 books now, Pinny and Oly. the rest is cash.. i get uneasy with offshore this time of year.. sort of like 5k with pinny, 5k with oly and 10k in cash.. does this sound ok to you ted?
strive for 70-50 record per month, broken down into 4 plays per day average. includes all sports. equals to a 57% win percentage.
Play $200 on every play, if 70-50 record is achieved then i will clear $3000.. at this rate the bankroll can grow and i can enjoy some of the fruits of my labor.. sort of 50/50 now.. i let the account grow, i spend about half of it and i keep some in a safe for cash purposes.. My bankroll is basically at 2 books now, Pinny and Oly. the rest is cash.. i get uneasy with offshore this time of year.. sort of like 5k with pinny, 5k with oly and 10k in cash.. does this sound ok to you ted?
SSI:
First of all, try not to look back at what might have been. I started similarly with football before including basketball. It takes time for everyone to realize that a bankroll is important. I did a lot of reading from some of the old time professionals when I first started to better understand their thought process. I have my own strengths but continue to constantly fine tune them to this day. Targeting between 55%-60% is very achieveable. Some years you will no doubt break 60% and others, you will perhaps be in the low 50's. But it is the overall bankroll through time that is to be protected and grown. Your number of plays is very reasonable each day and doesn't put your bankroll in any kind of serious risk. As we've spoken, you are a grinder as am I, although I do my best work when the games mean the most, i.e. tournaments, playoffs, etc. As for the outstanding bankroll, it is a good idea to reduce your exposure in January prior to the Superbowl. Having half of your bankroll split at Pinny and Oly is about as secure as you can get. Some information on offshore sportsbooks that I have read. About 70% of their business comes during football season. Another 20% comes from basketball season and the remaining 10% comes from baseball season. Other major sports are inclusive during those periods, but their action is not nearly as heavy. Keep that in mind when leaving your bankroll exposed. Only have enough out that you need to comfortably make your wagers allowing for swings in success, but no more. If you need 5K in each account, then leave it. If you don't have too much fluctuation in your winning and losing, then consider reducing your exposure. You can always add if you need too. Food for thought.
First of all, try not to look back at what might have been. I started similarly with football before including basketball. It takes time for everyone to realize that a bankroll is important. I did a lot of reading from some of the old time professionals when I first started to better understand their thought process. I have my own strengths but continue to constantly fine tune them to this day. Targeting between 55%-60% is very achieveable. Some years you will no doubt break 60% and others, you will perhaps be in the low 50's. But it is the overall bankroll through time that is to be protected and grown. Your number of plays is very reasonable each day and doesn't put your bankroll in any kind of serious risk. As we've spoken, you are a grinder as am I, although I do my best work when the games mean the most, i.e. tournaments, playoffs, etc. As for the outstanding bankroll, it is a good idea to reduce your exposure in January prior to the Superbowl. Having half of your bankroll split at Pinny and Oly is about as secure as you can get. Some information on offshore sportsbooks that I have read. About 70% of their business comes during football season. Another 20% comes from basketball season and the remaining 10% comes from baseball season. Other major sports are inclusive during those periods, but their action is not nearly as heavy. Keep that in mind when leaving your bankroll exposed. Only have enough out that you need to comfortably make your wagers allowing for swings in success, but no more. If you need 5K in each account, then leave it. If you don't have too much fluctuation in your winning and losing, then consider reducing your exposure. You can always add if you need too. Food for thought.
congrats on the 2-0 yesterday SSI,
we cashed together on the Kings!!! I also coudnt resist taking them + 1 for the 2nd half so it was as if I had them at + 9 for the game...
cashed my only NHL play aswell...am finally in the Black in terms of my RX posted NHL plays...if it hadn't been for that damn GOY on Ottawa the other day I would be sitting at a reasonable profit in that sport since posting...
posting has been a measure of good luck for me as My 'Posted' NBA plays have gone 16-6 since the allstar break...little bit of luck is always appreciated...
I have also started a new & more organized record keeping system for quicker review of past games...Every morning I print the 'printer friendly' version of the vegas rotation @ scoresandodds I then print the same rotation with all the final scores the next morning...I put them all in a 3 ring binder so I can track the opening-closing lines...I find it an excellent way to go back a few days & see what took place...
we cashed together on the Kings!!! I also coudnt resist taking them + 1 for the 2nd half so it was as if I had them at + 9 for the game...
cashed my only NHL play aswell...am finally in the Black in terms of my RX posted NHL plays...if it hadn't been for that damn GOY on Ottawa the other day I would be sitting at a reasonable profit in that sport since posting...
posting has been a measure of good luck for me as My 'Posted' NBA plays have gone 16-6 since the allstar break...little bit of luck is always appreciated...
I have also started a new & more organized record keeping system for quicker review of past games...Every morning I print the 'printer friendly' version of the vegas rotation @ scoresandodds I then print the same rotation with all the final scores the next morning...I put them all in a 3 ring binder so I can track the opening-closing lines...I find it an excellent way to go back a few days & see what took place...
Savant:
Congrats as well on the Kings last night as well as your posted record too date. Should have joined you both, but let the injuries cause me to pass. Great game by the Kings. Thanks for the information on the website. I'll check it out. I kind of do the same thing using the archives from www.donbest.com. Printer friendly with all sports covered in 2 to 4 pages depending on the size of the card. Covers NBA, NCAAB and NHL. Just right for you guys. Check it out as well!
Congrats as well on the Kings last night as well as your posted record too date. Should have joined you both, but let the injuries cause me to pass. Great game by the Kings. Thanks for the information on the website. I'll check it out. I kind of do the same thing using the archives from www.donbest.com. Printer friendly with all sports covered in 2 to 4 pages depending on the size of the card. Covers NBA, NCAAB and NHL. Just right for you guys. Check it out as well!
thanks for the comments ted but i play year around so keeping a steady balance is important to me at Oly and Pinny.. 5k works for me now, looking forward to the basketball tourneys that are in the near future as well as the nba playoffs.. i like to bet the series as much as individual games..
hey guys, like the plays for tonite SSI, always enjoy getting the points with the dogs...
BTW, I know both of you are very conservative, especially when it comes to $$$$ offshore...I was just wondering wether or not you had any thoughs or opinions on skybook I opened an account with them not long ago & have found that (with their free 1/2 point) they have the best line available on sides in NCAAB or NBA 75% of the time...
For example, tonite SSI they have the exact same lines that you posted, however with the free 1/2 point you are actually getting:
clev + 3 -110
Mem +3.5 -110
Atlanta +13 -110
Tor + 7 -110
Indy + 2.5 -110
of course it is a full -110 on each game, no reduced vig...however I also have an account at Pinny & it seems like the Best value for each & every game on tonights card....
FWIW, I sent them 1500$ so far...got my account up to 4K...requested 2500$ on Monday morning & it was in my neteller account on Monday afternoon....do you guys think I am playing with fire by not staying with the BIG BIG boys (pinny & Oly)? The value of the line seems incredible...
To be honest...I do not know how they do it as when a game lands exactly on the Number (as many have lately)...they obviously have to pay all bets? but they seem to manage!!
BTW, I know both of you are very conservative, especially when it comes to $$$$ offshore...I was just wondering wether or not you had any thoughs or opinions on skybook I opened an account with them not long ago & have found that (with their free 1/2 point) they have the best line available on sides in NCAAB or NBA 75% of the time...
For example, tonite SSI they have the exact same lines that you posted, however with the free 1/2 point you are actually getting:
clev + 3 -110
Mem +3.5 -110
Atlanta +13 -110
Tor + 7 -110
Indy + 2.5 -110
of course it is a full -110 on each game, no reduced vig...however I also have an account at Pinny & it seems like the Best value for each & every game on tonights card....
FWIW, I sent them 1500$ so far...got my account up to 4K...requested 2500$ on Monday morning & it was in my neteller account on Monday afternoon....do you guys think I am playing with fire by not staying with the BIG BIG boys (pinny & Oly)? The value of the line seems incredible...
To be honest...I do not know how they do it as when a game lands exactly on the Number (as many have lately)...they obviously have to pay all bets? but they seem to manage!!
Savant:
Two years ago I got caught when Sportsmarket/Aces Gold folded overnight. This was not a small book and catered to the wise guys as well as the casual player. If I remember correctly, it took action up to $50K on line. Juice free Fridays on football and had been in business for a number of years. Basically what happened is the owner took a walk with everyones money. There have been estimates of everything from $10M to $30M was lost for good by the players. There was no bailout although a few books stepped in to help a little, but most was lost. I spent the next two years researching as much as possible many, many books before deciding where to place the breakdown of my bankrolls. My philosophy following that failure is security, security, security. I cannot tell you what it feels like when one day you wake up knowing your money has been stolen. I looked for reduced vig with only the best of the best. I don't care about bonuses. A half point is nice but it is a gimmick to bring in the customers. The margin of profit for these books is extremely low. The more they give away, the greater the risk. Final answer regarding Skybook: No! Even if I were to win a contest with them, it was my intention to give the money either to charity if that was possible or one of you guys. SSI seems to have a church that could use the money. I would possibly give it to him to build up so he could donate the winnings to the church.
Two years ago I got caught when Sportsmarket/Aces Gold folded overnight. This was not a small book and catered to the wise guys as well as the casual player. If I remember correctly, it took action up to $50K on line. Juice free Fridays on football and had been in business for a number of years. Basically what happened is the owner took a walk with everyones money. There have been estimates of everything from $10M to $30M was lost for good by the players. There was no bailout although a few books stepped in to help a little, but most was lost. I spent the next two years researching as much as possible many, many books before deciding where to place the breakdown of my bankrolls. My philosophy following that failure is security, security, security. I cannot tell you what it feels like when one day you wake up knowing your money has been stolen. I looked for reduced vig with only the best of the best. I don't care about bonuses. A half point is nice but it is a gimmick to bring in the customers. The margin of profit for these books is extremely low. The more they give away, the greater the risk. Final answer regarding Skybook: No! Even if I were to win a contest with them, it was my intention to give the money either to charity if that was possible or one of you guys. SSI seems to have a church that could use the money. I would possibly give it to him to build up so he could donate the winnings to the church.
Savant:
All books have a small margin. I have read in various articles that there profit margin is approximately 3%-5%. If this is true, the more incentives that they offer, the more their profit margin is at risk of reduction. Whether that be reduced vig, half points, juice free for particular periods, bonuses, etc. What helps the books is the volume. The internet has created a much larger customer base than the old days when a player might have to go to Reno, Vegas, Atlantic City or even a local to make their plays. It is sort of like any volume business. The more sales are made the greater the overall income, even if the profit margin is low. Think of Costco as a example of a large discount warehouse with reduced prices. The business is successful through volume. If a book has volume, like Pinnacle for instance, it can afford to offer a reduced price. But a smaller book with less volume is risking it's profit if it doesn't have enough customers to offset it's reduced price.
All books have a small margin. I have read in various articles that there profit margin is approximately 3%-5%. If this is true, the more incentives that they offer, the more their profit margin is at risk of reduction. Whether that be reduced vig, half points, juice free for particular periods, bonuses, etc. What helps the books is the volume. The internet has created a much larger customer base than the old days when a player might have to go to Reno, Vegas, Atlantic City or even a local to make their plays. It is sort of like any volume business. The more sales are made the greater the overall income, even if the profit margin is low. Think of Costco as a example of a large discount warehouse with reduced prices. The business is successful through volume. If a book has volume, like Pinnacle for instance, it can afford to offer a reduced price. But a smaller book with less volume is risking it's profit if it doesn't have enough customers to offset it's reduced price.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> well you cant lose now and you have $1000 of their dollars.. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I don't quite agree with that SSI as I still have 1500$ on account with them & I have EARNED that money by winning wagers...if they did close down overnite I would be out 1500$ cash...that's how I would see it anyway...remember I also scalp/middle so it is not always necessarilly pure profits,
that being said, I understand exactly what you are saying...basically you both do not have confidence in the reliability of this or these types of books...
thanks for the words guys
I don't quite agree with that SSI as I still have 1500$ on account with them & I have EARNED that money by winning wagers...if they did close down overnite I would be out 1500$ cash...that's how I would see it anyway...remember I also scalp/middle so it is not always necessarilly pure profits,
that being said, I understand exactly what you are saying...basically you both do not have confidence in the reliability of this or these types of books...
thanks for the words guys
Savant:
Once the money is earned, it is yours and if it suddenly disappears overnight, the feeling is very real that the money has been stolen even if it is a profit. I chalked my loss up as a learning experience and a business expense, but I don't wish to experience that type of loss again. So, I try to be as careful as I can in this business. But, that being said, even the biggest and the best are not a certainty. Only if our money was held in escrow and we had direct access to it, would I feel even more comfortable. Even the owner of Olympic is well known to be a gambler of significant proportions so I am always conscious of that fact. Remember, we are trusting our money with people we don't even know with the belief that their business is sound and important enough to them that they will protect their business. That being said, they could choose to walk at any time and we have little recourse. I'm not suggesting gloom and doom, just keeping it real.
Once the money is earned, it is yours and if it suddenly disappears overnight, the feeling is very real that the money has been stolen even if it is a profit. I chalked my loss up as a learning experience and a business expense, but I don't wish to experience that type of loss again. So, I try to be as careful as I can in this business. But, that being said, even the biggest and the best are not a certainty. Only if our money was held in escrow and we had direct access to it, would I feel even more comfortable. Even the owner of Olympic is well known to be a gambler of significant proportions so I am always conscious of that fact. Remember, we are trusting our money with people we don't even know with the belief that their business is sound and important enough to them that they will protect their business. That being said, they could choose to walk at any time and we have little recourse. I'm not suggesting gloom and doom, just keeping it real.
