Oldman's 4* Picks For Thursday 5/3/07

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Been waiting for both of tonight's games since Game 5 of each were completed as I have pre-game plays for both. So let's get started.

The Houston/Utah series has run according to script as the home team has won every game. The scores have been as follows:

Game 1: Houston (84-75)
Game 2: Houston (98-90)
Game 3: Utah (81-67)
Game 4: Utah (98-85)
Game 5: Houston (96-92)

In watching all 5 of these games, from my perspective, the Jazz have been able to play nearly equal to the Rockets while on the road often times leading these games while at home, they dominate the Rockets who are a decent but not great road team having gone 24-19 in the regular season while the Jazz were 31-10 at home. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have been much more effective in this series when at home then on the road, while Carlos Boozer has been exceptional during the series regardless on location as he has shot over, around and through the Rocket defense. It is difficult to win a close out game on the road unless one team is far superior to the other and in this match-up, these two teams are very close and home court decides the winner. This series has every indication of going to a seventh and final game in Houston. Hence,

4* Utah -4.5 (-110) CRIS


The Dallas/Golden State series has stayed the course since the Warriors upset of the Mavericks in Game 1. The scores have been as follows:

Game 1: Golden State (97-85)
Game 2: Dallas (112-99)
Game 3: Golden State (109-91)
Game 4: Golden State (103-99)
Game 5: Dallas (118-112)

In watching all 5 of these games, from my perspective, the Warriors have both out played and out coached the Mavericks, particularly at home. There are many opinions on how the Warriors will react to having lost Game 5, so I will provide my local knowledge of the state of the Warriors. First, a discussion about Game 5. Going into the game with a 3-1 series lead, I personally felt the Warriors were in a difficult position pre-game as some of the players were already looking to Game 6 even if they lost Game 5. The early results backed up my thoughts as the Mavericks cruised to a 21 point second quarter lead, but then what game surprised me as the Warriors cut that lead to 7 points at the half, 3 points by the end of the third quarter and held a 112-103 lead with 3:19 to play only to be outscored 15-0 to end the game. The mere fact that the Warriors accomplished the comeback in a setting where the Mavericks were playing all out to stay alive was extremely impressive to me. While it is true they lost, I can tell you from here, they have not lost one ounce of confidence and still believe they will beat Dallas at home in the friendly and insane environment of Oracle Arena in Oakland. One of the things I have noticed, particularly in Game 4 and 5, when the Warriors make a run to close the gap or take the lead on the Mavericks, the Dallas players appear scared and confused in their offense. They don't seem to know who to go to or what to call. Meanwhile, the confident Warriors just keep coming believing they will win. Tonight in a close out game in Oakland, the Mavericks will find a confident and hungry Warriors team waiting for them and a bit irritated after losing Game 5, which they almost stole. The Warriors are not sulking over the loss. They can't wait to get in front of their rabid home fans and eliminate Dallas from the playoffs and they have the tools and attitude to accomplish just that. Hence,

4* Golden State +2.5 (-110) CRIS

Playoffs Year To Date: 14-8 (+18.20)

Good Luck All.
 

The 2007 Pats could never beat the 1979 Steelers
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I'm already on both of these as well as the GST over. I'll be rooting for you Buddy!!
:toast:
 

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I also like the Jazz a lot tonight Ted. I just hope their inexperience in this spot will not come to bite them, but Houston has showed nothing so far on the road. Good Luck.
 

You play... to win... the game
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I'm not too sure about the Jazz. I haven't watched much of this series, but what I've seen, it feels like Yao is starting to assert himself on the series. If he does that, this may not get back to Houston.
 

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Great Run Ted. I Will Be The Opposite In Both Games Tonight. G St Should Have Finished The Job When They Had Their Chance.
 

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Gr8 analysis OMT,of both games & teams.

I'm betting Utah -4.5, that's the logical play.

As for Dallas, I was there for game 5, 5th row seats behind Mavs bench, & saw what the real Mavs are all about in the 1stQ, & saw what they're all about when Dirk stepped up in last 3mins of game for comeback win.

Dallas is still the better team, GS players know that, but they are not afraid of Dallas & they do matchup well vs Dallas.
However one has to admit that GS lives & die by 3pt shooting as evidenced in Game 5 (48% 3pts made is insane), Dallas gave GS too many opps for open 3pts shots & GS hit them, but they also missed 6 in a row in last 3mins of game!!!
Dallas needs to double team Baron & not allow GS too many 3pts opps & be more aggressive & assertive by taking the ball to the basket more often, which they can do but have been very hesitant to do for most of games vs GS, & I blame coach (Avery) for that!!!
If Dallas does all that & Dirks steps up to the elite player status that he is, & I believe he will then Dallas wins this game.

I'm taking Dallas -2.5 pts just cause I'm a :homer:

One more thing, for dallas to win the moon & stars have to also be all alligned perfectly :)

Go Mavs
 

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One more thing, for dallas to win the moon & stars have to also be all alligned perfectly :)

Go Mavs

the chances of the moon and the stars to be alligned perfectly..... is that likely???
 

SSI

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hello my friend, good luck with the warriors tonight.... ill probably be joining you but on the ML.......

slightly disagree with you on the Jazz pick tonight, simply because of the pressure thats going to be on Utah...

could be alot of value in the points tonight...... either way, this years playoffs (in my opinion) have been pretty exciting to watch.....
 

L5Y, USC is 4-0 vs SEC, outscoring them 167-48!!!
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As a Bay Area native and WILL BE THERE TONIGHT I can sum up the Warriors & Dallas mindset thus far.


GS = Inherently believe deep down they can beat Dallas anytime, anywhere
DAL = Trying to build on confidence and identity after game 5 win.
 

You play... to win... the game
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Dogs are 5-2 ATS in close out games this post-season, but interestingly enough only 2-5 SU. Keep this in mind tonight in both games I'd think.

For what it's worth, overs are 4-3 in the 7 games with two way over and two way under.
 

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I also like the Jazz a lot tonight Ted. I just hope their inexperience in this spot will not come to bite them, but Houston has showed nothing so far on the road. Good Luck.

They have played them well in Games 3 and 4 at home. See no reason they shouldn't do as well tonight.
 

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I'm not too sure about the Jazz. I haven't watched much of this series, but what I've seen, it feels like Yao is starting to assert himself on the series. If he does that, this may not get back to Houston.

Just watch tonight. You'll see them as they won both home games by DD so far in this series.
 

Happy Tissues
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Let's cash these boss...
I love the over 52 3rd quarter tonight.. That will be my large play... Lets go GS and Utah...

AW?™
 

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