IN:
Oklahoma, Iowa/Michigan St winner. These 2 are locks.
In with a win:
Alabama, Clemson. They both win there is no debate. These 4 teams are in.
Florida isn't beating Alabama. That leaves one spot.
If Clemson loses they are out, but UNC isn't necessarily in. I think the football committee is looking at this like the basketball committee does. Who have you played? Look at the CFP rankings , before this week they were ranked 14th. Would a win over Clemson vault them up significantly? Maybe it does.
So assuming Alabama wins and Clemson loses, we have the following teams looking at 1 spot:
North Carolina
Ohio St
Stanford if they beat USC (probably out with their 2 losses)
Its basically UNC vs Ohio St.
Does the committee have it in them to exclude a 1 Loss conference champion, who just beat the #1 ranked team? After this week, UNC should be ranked ahead of at least 5 more teams putting them at #9 minimum. Beat Clemson and you have to put them ahead of them. Who would be ranked ahead of them, outside of the 3 locks, if they beat Clemson??
Ohio ST and Stanford are the only possibilities.
How much weight will the committee put into a win over Clemson? I would think it would be pretty big. Enough to vault a 2 loss Stanford who would beat an unranked USC team for their championship.
It comes down to this:
Would the committee put in another Big 12 team over a 1 loss Conf Champion that just beat the #1 team in the country?
To me, it looks like the ACC championship game is a play in game, winner gets in and Ohio St is left out.
Now if Alabama somehow loses? Ohio St is right back in the picture, or possibly Stanford. But assuming an Alabama win, the ACC winner gets the last spot.