Oh My! I just made a Presidential Election Model

[WillyBoyXXX]

Well, not exactly. Aside from a ‘nowcast’ (ie. if the election were held today, as opposed to a ‘forecast’, which guesses what happens on 11/5) – this is about the current trends in Swing State polling. Which, if you’ve been paying attention - the Swing States listed below are the trump cards in this game – pun intended.

Every Friday I’ll be posting a week’s worth of averaged raw state polls, gleaned from RCP, 538, and Silver Bulletin, which shows how the candidates are trending. I’m not too picky about the polls I include, mainly because I’m not smart (or obsessed) enough to do so, but I do toss outliers from the calculation when they produce more than a 5% variation from the norm.

The ‘nowcast’ I include is based on those states and their EVs which I consider ‘in the bag’ (ITB) for both candidates – 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump – along with the Swing States’ EVs they’re currently winning. States ITB are pretty much agreed to by all poll-forecasters, and “270 TO WIN’S” electoral map is probably the best.

https://www.270towin.com/

Clearly, the race is too close to call, and just about all leads shown below are within every pollster’s margin of error – making the game a tossup.

 

[MAGAking1]

Well, not exactly. Aside from a ‘nowcast’ (ie. if the election were held today, as opposed to a ‘forecast’, which guesses what happens on 11/5) – this is about the current trends in Swing State polling. Which, if you’ve been paying attention - the Swing States listed below are the trump cards in this game – pun intended.

Every Friday I’ll be posting a week’s worth of averaged raw state polls, gleaned from RCP, 538, and Silver Bulletin, which shows how the candidates are trending. I’m not too picky about the polls I include, mainly because I’m not smart (or obsessed) enough to do so, but I do toss outliers from the calculation when they produce more than a 5% variation from the norm.

The ‘nowcast’ I include is based on those states and their EVs which I consider ‘in the bag’ (ITB) for both candidates – 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump – along with the Swing States’ EVs they’re currently winning. States ITB are pretty much agreed to by all poll-forecasters, and “270 TO WIN’S” electoral map is probably the best.

https://www.270towin.com/

Clearly, the race is too close to call, and just about all leads shown below are within every pollster’s margin of error – making the game a tossup.

 

[doctorsuccess]

 

[SheriffJoe]

Heads he wins.
Tails she loses.

Who cares.

Tough to "lose" anything when you're under Continuity of Government Operations.

"Polls" are as fake and ghey as those "Covid" PCR tests which, hilariously enough, fooled the exact same idiots!

Let me explain what "polls" actually are. "Polls" are designed to reflect the output of the CORRUPT DNC "Data Manipulation Dept" RIGGED!

"Polls" are PSYOPs... predictive programing so CUCKservatives believe the FAKE RIGGED RESULTS election night and remain docile and obedient. "Well, the polls were right...I guess we lost. We need to become more "moderate" and move further left!"

How's that working for ya? While your country goes to HELL!

I've seen first hand, the dirty voter rolls and RIGGED machine algorithms. The evidence is incontrovertible.

No more games.

TDS clowns have no idea how in over their heads they are this time...and what Patriots did to fix a totally fictitious "system" the CORRUPT establishment pretends to call "democracy"

WE ARE THE MAGA 75%!

TARDS can kick and scream till they are blue in the face...the PEOPLE are being given their country back!!

Protect your minds.

To be blunt, GAME OVER!

 

[SheriffJoe]

Think about it totally logically and objectively...

If the "official polls" are more reflective of this

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Since Trump in 2016 about 38 million boomers have died. Since Obama 2008 about 63 million boomers have died. Since Biden 2020, 20 million are dead. We have been able to harvest dead Boomers ballots since Obama but as you can see we are running out of fake boomer votes. So we have moved to plan B, illegal aliens. Trump uses 20 million new illegals, which is about right since we lost 20 million boomers since 2020 to get our fake votes from.

"We miscalculated in 2020 because so many boomers were dying and we were not getting as many illegals. we made a mistake and gave Biden 81 million votes when all it need to be was 76 million.

"In 2024 we have plenty of illegals to harvest votes from and boomers are back to dying a normal rates. So expect Florida and NC to turn Blue with NV, AZ, MI, WS, PA, GA and maybe Iowa and Ohio if we are feeling greedy and really want to curb stomp Trump/Vance"

-- Codebreaker

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

And NOT this

Then those "official polls" are just RIGGED as the FINAL RESULTS. Of course they are! They're part of the SAME CRIMINAL TURNKEY SYSTEM! Duh!

The old CUCKservative maxim always was, "Polls are used to manipulate opinions.."

No. No. No. No. No.

"Polls" are predictive programming the CRIMINAL SYNDICATE USES TO JUSTIFY FRAUD DATA MANIPULATION PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE

Just like they used their FAKE, PHONY and FALSE PCR test to make you believe in a virus that didn't exist (or at least, not even close to the dangerous scale they were pretending)..

FAKE SCIENCE: Omg! You've got this horrible virus!

Norm and Norma Normie: But I don't have any symptoms? I don't feel anything.

FAKE SCIENCE: "Yes, you do! You must isolate for two weeks! And then you must wear a mask and follow the arrows in the grocery aisles! And you MUST get "vaccinated" or we're not gonna beat this thing! Do you hear me?"

Norm and Norma Normie: Duhhh...okay.

Logical inference, people...especially you CUCKservatives. WAKE THE FUCK UP!

I have all the RECEIPTS. But don't just blindly listen to Sheriff Joe.

THINK about what I'm saying LOGICALLY...use your brain.

It's not that difficult.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Heads he wins.
Tails she loses.

Who cares.

Tough to "lose" anything when you're under Continuity of Government Operations.

"Polls" are as fake and ghey as those "Covid" PCR tests which, hilariously enough, fooled the exact same idiots!

Let me explain what "polls" actually are. "Polls" are designed to reflect the output of the CORRUPT DNC "Data Manipulation Dept" RIGGED!

"Polls" are PSYOPs... predictive programing so CUCKservatives believe the FAKE RIGGED RESULTS election night and remain docile and obedient. "Well, the polls were right...I guess we lost. We need to become more "moderate" and move further left!"

How's that working for ya? While your country goes to HELL!

I've seen first hand, the dirty voter rolls and RIGGED machine algorithms. The evidence is incontrovertible.

No more games.

TDS clowns have no idea how in over their heads they are this time...and what Patriots did to fix a totally fictitious "system" the CORRUPT establishment pretends to call "democracy"

WE ARE THE MAGA 75%!

TARDS can kick and scream till they are blue in the face...the PEOPLE are being given their country back!!



View attachment 101294

Protect your minds.

To be blunt, GAME OVER!

Geez – try decaf – LOL. Is there anything about America you like? Aside from guns, I guess. Anything? A few bad polls, and the sky is falling: everything’s corrupt, fake, and the country’s all shit. Maybe it’s time for a nap.

 

[MAGAking1]

. Maybe it’s time for a nap.

Maybe its time for you to WAKE UP

 

[SheriffJoe]

Everything’s corrupt, fake, and the country’s all shit.

Bingo.

Want proof? You still believe "President Biden" got "81 million votes"...even though ONE OF YOUR OWN just ratted you out!

So you didn't learn a damn thing from 2020... same old FAKE "polls" reflecting the upcoming FAKE statistically-impossible "results", which you - AGAIN! - will swallow hook, line and sinker.

And you STILL don't think this is a problem?

 

[Seymour]

the media runs with the narrative that Trump is racist - and then asks people who they are voting for? then tells us we can't rely on polling

 

[roadreeler57]

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Trump’s poll numbers are stagnating in North Caroline, where his lead is a paltry 0.4%, and Georgia 0.8% (where the Republican fix may be in, but he needs a convincing and real win for credibility’s sake). He remains down in Pennsylvania by 1.6%, a state he must deny to Harris (the blue wall states are her backbone). Securing the sunbelt states should be Trump’s priority, but he needs to spend more time and resources in Pennsylvania to avoid another 2020.

 

[MAGAking1]

Trump’s poll numbers are stagnating in North Caroline, where his lead is a paltry 0.4%, and Georgia 0.8% (where the Republican fix may be in, but he needs a convincing and real win for credibility’s sake). He remains down in Pennsylvania by 1.6%, a state he must deny to Harris (the blue wall states are her backbone). Securing the sunbelt states should be Trump’s priority, but he needs to spend more time and resources in Pennsylvania to avoid another 2020.

Yep still thinking this is about fake polls and "politics"

Hilarious and Clueless at the same time....

 

[Greenbacks]

Fair & square he wins bigly

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

If you can be coherent – ie. without launching into another goofy conspiracy theory – what make polls “fake”? Some like the NYT/Sienna and Rasmusen have a baked in bias, but most pollsters have an inherent need to accurate – it’s their bread and butters. So tell me, why do both Trump and Harris spend money on “fake” polls.

 

[MAGAking1]

If you can be coherent – ie. without launching into another goofy conspiracy theory – what make polls “fake”? Some like the NYT/Sienna and Rasmusen have a baked in bias, but most pollsters have an inherent need to accurate – it’s their bread and butters. So tell me, why do both Trump and Harris spend money on “fake” polls.

Fake Polls have no inherent need to be accurate just like fake news has no inherent need to be accurate.

All they need to be inherent in is convincing the gullible sheep like you that what they say is true.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

I suppose you just can't help yourself. You're too invested in the upside-down reality you've bought into - one that gives you the comfort you need - to see the reality we - all of us - live in.

 

[MAGAking1]

I suppose you just can't help yourself. You're too invested in the upside-down reality you've bought into - one that gives you the comfort you need - to see the reality we - all of us - live in.

LOLOLOLOL

Women are men and men are women....talk about being ODMF.

 

[MAGAking1]

I suppose you just can't help yourself. You're too invested in the upside-down reality you've bought into - one that gives you the comfort you need - to see the reality we - all of us - live in.

This is a literally a note from your future self to your current self.

If you EVER wake the FK up then you will realize it.

 

[MAGAking1]

If you can be coherent – ie. without launching into another goofy conspiracy theory

Lesson for dealing with the brainwashed. (not really a response to you SillyWilly, just quoting for reference)

When you are dealing with someone who sets up a question with this type of lead in then you ALREADY know they are not interested in a REAL answer.....They have ALREADY closed their minds

Because whatever you tell them that doesnt agree with their programming will automatically be dismissed as a goofy CONSPIRACY THEORY

 

[Greenbacks]

What's gotten into Willie?