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VegasVic

VegasVic

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The Thrashers come from behind victory over the Devils last night could be a huge statement game for both teams. For the Thrashers…stringing some wins together and picking their game up a notch can’t be far behind. This team is too talented to continue to play as dysfunctional as they have in the early going. Having goalies by the names of Berkhoel and Garnett can’t be a comforting thought but they will simply outscore the opposition.

For the Devils….Marty Brodeur is simply off his game. And it’s much more than the losses of Nieuwendyk and Stevens or the new rules. I’ve seen several recent games and he plays sloppy and disinterested. Often will not square up to the shooter, let’s in wrap arounds by not covering the post, glove appears slow. Fundamental errors you would never see from him in the past. If you doubt this just go to the schedule page of NHL.com and click on the video highlights of the Devils games. Brodeur and the vaunted Devils defense is suddenly overrated. Four overs in a row and counting.

I’ve watched 19 year old Sidney Crosby play enough this year to come to one conclusion. This guy is so slick and talented he makes people like Ziggy Palffy look slow and clueless. Crosby needs to slow down his game and actually advertise his passes to be able to connect with guys like Lemieux, Leclaire, and Recchi. You’ve heard the phrase Man among Boys. He’s the Boy among Men and they can’t keep up.

The Cap’s 20 year old phenom Alexander Ovechkin faces a similar dilemma. However with no name players around him he is free to take matters into his own hands. Explaining his 6 goals but only 4 assists compared to Crosby’s 9 assists but only two goals.

Minnesota’s Marion Gaborik who’s only criticism in the past is that he doesn’t dish off enough has 4 assists in his first two games since returning from the I.R. and will be a better player because of it. The B’s Joe Thornton’s critique is he sometimes tries to pass too much and took eight shots on net last night when he ample opportunity to pass, (scored twice), and will be a better player for it.

I love reading box scores….Did anyone notice that the Hurricanes outshot Washington 37-11 last night? Not only did Carolina shut out the Caps 4-0 for the game but shut them out from any shots on goal for the entire third period. The Canes themselves only had two for the last stanza. Two total shots on net for one period? This has to be some sort of record doesn’t it? I’ve followed hockey for a long time and I don’t believe I’ve ever seem that.

Side note: This lack of accurate shooting came after the Hurricanes equaled a franchise record for 24 shots on net in the second period.

Attendance is down all over. Washington announced 13,374 but according to The Post, “there appeared to be significantly fewer in the building.”

I watched the game in St. Louis and I believe Halloween came early in Missouri. It seems everyone chose the same costume of a blue seat. (I looked for the attendance figure on this game and couldn’t find it anywhere. I think they are afraid to tell anyone)

Nashville leads the whole universe in points with 14 and is only one of two unbeaten teams in hockey. They play a team that all the pundits tabbed as their main competition to the Western Division crown. They play on a Saturday night and draw 12,668?



Something tells me the attendance figures between the Wild and Blackhawks at the United Center should be interesting tonight. Not only do the Hawks average 13,139 this year but are head to head against the White Sox second game of the World Series.

If no one is there to hear a air horn does it make any noise?




Give me the under 18 on the Salami tonight.
GL to all.
 
BIGSHOTMAXXX

BIGSHOTMAXXX

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i hope you understand how delightful it is to read your posts vic, always entertaining and informative...i have a general observation id like to share...


putting money on the GL sure looks tempting, usually around +150-180 is the payout for a 1 unit bet....i have been getting crused with such wagers...empty net goals at the end of a game happen way less frequently than you would think...even in high moneyline games it seems most games end with a 1 goal difference.

i was lucky enough to benifit from the atlanta comeback last night and we shall see if it was a STATEMENT or a FLUKE....but i accept the money with grace for i have been on the opposite side of those games more times than id like to count!!
 

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SportSavant

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I was just about to post the calgary under aswell as the Salami under as my first 3 unit play of the year....

lots of quality goaltenders.....
 

Omni

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Very nice post. I think I'm gonna go with that Salami under, as I was also considering it as my only play today. I like to play the under Salami on days with fewer games
 
VegasVic

VegasVic

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BIGSHOTMAXXX said:
i hope you understand how delightful it is to read your posts vic, always entertaining and informative...i have a general observation id like to share...


putting money on the GL sure looks tempting, usually around +150-180 is the payout for a 1 unit bet....i have been getting crused with such wagers...empty net goals at the end of a game happen way less frequently than you would think...even in high moneyline games it seems most games end with a 1 goal difference.

i was lucky enough to benifit from the atlanta comeback last night and we shall see if it was a STATEMENT or a FLUKE....but i accept the money with grace for i have been on the opposite side of those games more times than id like to count!!

When I do take the goal line I will often use the same strategy as I do in baseball’s run line. Play the side for a full unit and back it up with a half unit on the GL or even a much more conservative approach….third of a unit.

They way I look at it nothing is more agonizing than having the right side of a game and turning it into a loser by only taking them on the goal line. Even if I’m taking heavy caulk, (which I rarely do), and laying a buck eighty on the side I still stand to win something on a one goal victory.

In example the Kings tonight are laying 166 and getting 183 on the GL

$100 pays $60.24 at -166

$33 pays $60.39 at +183

Kings win and I’m up $27.24

They win by 2 or more I’m up $120.63, (on a $133 investment)

They lose and I shouldn’t have been betting on them anyway. However hopefully will learn something valuable in the process and only lose 1/3<SUP>rd</SUP> of a unit more for that lesson.

In regard to the Thrashers:
I really do think this come back victory for Atlanta is the medicine they need to regain composure and chemistry. I’ll tell you right now I’ll be looking to take them, (if the dog price is substantial), at the Island on Tuesday and take the over 7 at Pittsburgh on Thursday.

 
BIGSHOTMAXXX

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well said, the GL is a good play when combined with the side, i havent learned how to play with half or third units for that matter yet...i am a stubborn ass.
 

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I think the Thrashers are the real deal, there biggest problem after Kovalchuk got back was they started waiting for him to do something and fed him time and time again instead of playing as a team like they did before he returned. Losing Boulton also opens a spot on the 4 th line for someone that can actually play and ellimates the stupid penalties he was taking and costing the team, lets hope they reconize this before he comes back from suspension. I think Garnett will be just fine once the team in front him gets some confidence in him, he was a stud in juniors on a shitty Saskatoon team and played on a couple of under 17 and 18 team canada teams and he was a high draft pick (2nd round?) so the scouts must of liked him.

Atlanta has lots of speed and skill and to survive and win in the new NHL you need that for any chance, look at the teams doing so well and you will find most have a lot of Uro's or speed/skill guys.:toast:
 

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i agree on atlanta, much better than they have shown..

vic, are you aware that nashville has trailed in every game this year... 3 of the 7 wins have been in shootouts.. "we" are lucky to be 7-0 but its nice.. outlook for next 3, chi at home tues//// a trip to columbus on wed/// at home next sat night against the oilers... could we be looking at 10-0 to start.. there is a chance..
 
BIGSHOTMAXXX

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:monsters- ....who would have thought...but its very, very, possible!!!
SSI said:
i agree on atlanta, much better than they have shown..

vic, are you aware that nashville has trailed in every game this year... 3 of the 7 wins have been in shootouts.. "we" are lucky to be 7-0 but its nice.. outlook for next 3, chi at home tues//// a trip to columbus on wed/// at home next sat night against the oilers... could we be looking at 10-0 to start.. there is a chance..
 
VegasVic

VegasVic

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SSI said:
i agree on atlanta, much better than they have shown..

vic, are you aware that nashville has trailed in every game this year... 3 of the 7 wins have been in shootouts.. "we" are lucky to be 7-0 but its nice.. outlook for next 3, chi at home tues//// a trip to columbus on wed/// at home next sat night against the oilers... could we be looking at 10-0 to start.. there is a chance..

I was aware that they have a perfect lineup for shootouts and have won all three convincingly. I also have noticed that they are a goal line killer only winning one game by more than one out of their seven victories.

I wasn’t aware that they have trailed in every game. That telling fact speaks volumes about their character. It’s evident that Nashville is for real and Savant has some incredible value in that 60/1 ticket on them.

Hey Savant I’ll trade you my 100/1 on the Penguins straight up for that worthless long shot of yours.

 
PokerKingJim

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Crosby's stick handling and vision is absolutely amazing. He's going to do nothing but get better.
 

docmercer

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VegasVic said:
For the Devils….Marty Brodeur is simply off his game. And it’s much more than the losses of Nieuwendyk and Stevens or the new rules. .

Hasn't Nieuwendyk been gone for a couple of years?

Good writup - I watched that Caps game vs. Carolina. Talk about a team that knows where they are and has no desire to prove otherwise.
 
VegasVic

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ktvvegas said:
Hasn't Nieuwendyk been gone for a couple of years?

Good writup - I watched that Caps game vs. Carolina. Talk about a team that knows where they are and has no desire to prove otherwise.

Yeah my bad....I meant Niedermayer but didn’t catch the mistake till late. Glad to see someone is paying attention. Good catch KTV
 
VegasVic

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ktvvegas said:
Good writup - I watched that Caps game vs. Carolina. Talk about a team that knows where they are and has no desire to prove otherwise.

My impression on Washington is a bit different. They at least are going with kids and building for the future. In my opinion that is the wisest long range strategy for this team. Clubs like the Penguins who mortgage the future with a past their prime, fantasy league all-star squad are taking the wrong path. All the money they spent and not one guy that can play defense. When all is said and done they will be with the Caps and watching the playoffs from their living room.

There was nothing Washington could do this year, being so financially limited. Buying free agents would have accomplished nothing but take valuable ice time away from their future players and their NHL learning experience. Sure there will be some growing pains and I feel for the fans that support this team at the gate. But no matter what, Alexander Kovalchuk, alone, will always be worth the price of admission.

I say they give Brendan Witt his wish and grab more youth and/or draft picks.

 

docmercer

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VegasVic said:
Yeah my bad....I meant Niedermayer but didn’t catch the mistake till late. Glad to see someone is paying attention. Good catch KTV

You know whats funny is - I read it and actually read it as Neidermayer and then while perusing another forum I read a Leafs fan complaining about the loss of Neiuwendyk.

Honest type on your part - and a valid point made by you.
 
barman

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Regarding the use of Goal Line pricing:

If we're putting down bets that pay between +130 up to +200, it's likely we'll lose more of them than we win.

But of course that's not bad if you're making a profit.

Our strategy is simple. Take games played to date and grade them versus the 1.5 (for or against depending on tonite's home/away).

Don't have the numbers right here, but upon capping the Wing and the Sen games for Monday nite, we can see that combined, Wing wins of 1.5 and Jack losses of 1.5 are about even for year. So getting strong plus pricing is a natural play.

Sens beating 1.5 and Canes losing to 1.5 is also right at .500, so the +190 for Ottawa to cover the spread seems a solid investment.

As always, any tactics or angles which might have working value should be applied carefully using standard Unit exposure.

If you're angle or tactic is sound, you'll profit. But if said angle or tactic gets deeked by any manner of adversity, a Protected Unit size will leave you in far less pain.

Three cents from Clearwater

Steve
 

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