Oaklawn 04-05-2020

[Prof_Factor]

OP 04-05-2020

Asmussen is 8% (8/101) last 30 days at Oaklawn. Diodoro is 23%, but 13% for last 2 weeks (4/31). Biggest difference is Diodoro routers have done better than his sprinters while Asmussen sprinters have done better than the routers.
McKnight has sucked all meet 8% (6/73). His best runners have been in Allowance races where 50% have hit the board.
Brad Cox numbers haven't changed much ... 23% for the month, 19% last 2 weeks. It is worth noting however, Joe Talamo rides most of his runners and hasn't won with last 11 favorites below 8-5 odds, and finished completely out of the money with 8 of the 11. That proves they are manipulating payoffs because they have won 30% with all runners over 8-5 (10/33), and in-the-money 60% (20-33). What I refer to as data evidence.

Just some stats for you to digest. Yummy.


race #1 - 8.5f
... toteboard should tell us the winner.
#5 5-2 OPERATIC - likely prepared by Savoy, not sure about intent because this is the first via Deville
#4 4-1 BELLA ALICITA
#7 6-1 CONFORMATION

race #2 - 6f
#6 6-1 PERFECT RUSH - 3yo working into shape ... dueled thru slop from post 1 in last.
#8 7-2 HEART RIVER - extremely logical!
#7 12-1 JUST FOR CASEY - nice works, inspect
#4 6-1 TRACI'S GREELEY

race #3 - 8.5f
#2 4-1 CANDY STORE
#4 7-2 LNGTERMRELATIONSHP
#7 5-2 PARADE FIELD

race #4 - 6f
#12 3-1 PRIVATE LAKE
#2 4-1 JAMES'S MOONSHINE
#4 9-2 RADICATOR
#9 20-1 BOO BE RIGHT - exotic booster

race #5 - 6f
... do we smell chalk dust? See if Cox/Talamo goes below 8-5.
#9 7-2 TRUE CASTLE
#10 4-1 ITALIAN JUSTICE
#1 9-2 SHE'S A DIME - O'Neill wheels-back?
#2 10-1 FLEETA BELLE - exotic booster

... rest to follow shortly ...

 

[Melniko]

Good luck, today, I've been studying this card all morning and I'm also a big fan of Candy Store in the 3rd.

 

[Michelangelo]

Good luck, Prof.

 

[HossSense]

Good Luck Prof

 

[Lt1]

Good luck Prof.

 

[Prof_Factor]

race #6 - 8f
#4 5-2 KASILOF - Sharp/Garcia win 55% (6/11), 2/2 with favs this meet
#7 8-1 JASIRI
#2 7-2 QUANA DUDE

race #7 - 6f
#7 7-2 MAJOR ATTRACTION
#1 8-1 EDGEMONT ROAD
#4 6-1 BANK

race #8 - 8f
#5 7-2 AWE EMMA
#2 5-2 BLUE MOONRISE
#8 4-1 BLESSED AGAIN

race #9 - 6f
#3 5-2 GINOBILI
#1 4-1 AMERICAN BUTTERFLY
#2 8-1 SYCAMORE RUN
#7 10-1 THE GREAT DANSKY


FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
"fiddler" - don't expect top effort if low price
My wagers are exacta keybox top pick, plus straight win bet on top pick.
Good luck to all!

 

[Prof_Factor]

Hoss, Mich, Lt ..... thanks, and best to all of you!!

 

[Prof_Factor]

Good luck, today, I've been studying this card all morning and I'm also a big fan of Candy Store in the 3rd.

Thanks, Melniko. Good luck to you as well. We'll see if we're right with Candy.

 

[Mosi]

Prof, good luck today. May all your ponies find themselves battling hard in the stretch run to the wire.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Thanks, Mosi. Appreciate it. Good luck to you as well.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Here is a list of all Cox/Talamo runners that went off below 2-1 for the entire Oaklawn meet, in order by odds.

Below 8-5 : 0/11 wins (0%), 3/11 in-the-money (27%)
8-5 and up: 6/10 wins (60%), 9/10 in-the-money (90%)


They had 8 odds-on (below 1-1) horses, and only 1 hit the board!
Can you imagine what it would feel like to bet those 8 horses to show?
You'd have to feel like the unluckiest person in the world.

Odds 2-5
-----------------------------
2/7/2020 OP race 7
 HOPPA 
 Finished:9 of 10  Odds:0.50

4/4/2020 OP race 8
 ANSWER IN
 Finished:5 of 10  Odds:0.50

Odds 3-5
-----------------------------
2/29/2020 OP race 6
 IRISH MISCHIEF
 Finished:8 of 8  Odds:0.60

2/8/2020 OP race 7
 COMMUNICATOR
 Finished:10 of 11  Odds:0.70

Odds 4-5
------------------------------
2/20/2020 OP race 4
 BIGGS
 Finished:7 of 11  Odds:0.80

2/29/2020 OP race 9
 BREAK EVEN
 Finished:6 of 6  Odds:0.80

2/1/2020 OP race 4
 FAIR CATCH
 Finished:6 of 12  Odds:0.90

3/7/2020 OP race 7
 JEWEL THIEF
 Finished:2 of 8  Odds:0.90

Odds 1-1
-----------------------------
1/25/2020 OP race 9
 EMBOLDENED
 Finished:5 of 12  Odds:1.10

Odds 7-5
-----------------------------
2/16/2020 OP race 8
 EMBOLDENED
 Finished:2 of 7  Odds:1.40

2/28/2020 OP race 8
 GETRIDOFWHATAILESU
 Finished:2 of 7  Odds:1.40

Odds 8-5
-------------------------------
2/21/2020 OP race 2
 KURILOV (CHI)
 Finished:1 of 6  Odds:1.60

2/29/2020 OP race 8
 SHARED SENSE
 Finished:1 of 8  Odds:1.60

3/21/2020 OP race 10
 GOLDEN NOTION
 Finished:3 of 10  Odds:1.70

3/29/2020 OP race 7
 ONE STEP
 Finished:1 of 11  Odds:1.70

4/3/2020 OP race 3
 SECOND LINE DAVID
 Finished:3 of 9  Odds:1.70

4/5/2020 OP race 5
 SWEET CARLI 
 Finished:3 of 6  Odds:1.70

Odds 9-5
--------------------------
2/2/2020 OP race 6
 GETRIDOFWHATAILESU
 Finished:1 of 10  Odds:1.80

3/15/2020 OP race 8
 M G WARRIOR
 Finished:1 of 8  Odds:1.80

3/28/2020 OP race 3
 MY BOY LOLLIPOP 
 Finished:4 of 7  Odds:1.80

4/3/2020 OP race 7
 JEWEL THIEF
 Finished:1 of 8  Odds:1.90

 

[Prof_Factor]

An argument could be made that Talamo had to get used to the track in the beginning and
most of those losers fell in that timeframe.
That is true, to a degree.
Here is a graph of all Cox/Talamo runners for the meet.
Judging from the graph, I would say, by the week of Feb 24, Talamo is completely acclimated.
5 of the 11 failed favorites were after Feb 24.
They also lost with all 3 runners below 2-1 this weekend (2-5, 8-5, 8-5)

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks for sharing your work, Prof.