Conference play tips off in the Horizon League tonight with 13-4 Valpo going into 4-10 Oakland as a 5.5 point chalk. To me this looks a little too easy to play Valpo. I'll bite and take the pooch at home. Nothing bad to say about Valpo as they are mostly better than Oakland in all statistical categories this year. My only issue with Valpo is that they have played a very soft schedule (SOS 282 out of 351). They have padded all of their numbers against cupcake opponents. Meanwhile, Oakland has played a very tough schedule (SOS 12 out of 351). Having played the likes of Maryland, Clemson, Pitt, Zona and Sparty in their last 5 games should have this team battled tested and prepared for their conference home opener against a Valpo team who they have managed to hang with in previous years.
The last 7 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 5 points or less. Oakland also has won 6 of the last 8 meetings SU. Oakland has covered the last 4 meetings ATS including twice at home and three times as an underdog. This is conference play, these teams know each other well. They play close tight games. IMO this is an overlay based on how Valpo has played so far OOC. Based on their recent history and knowledge of each other this line should be around Valpo PK or -1 at best.
Last year on January 4th, 2014 a 5-11 Oakland team won 75-70 at home and covered as 2 point fav over a 9-7 Valpo. I feel the line today is inflated to -5.5 based on Valpo's early season cupcake schedule. Oakland should battle hard and make this game very competitive down to the wire. Win or lose, I feel I have to back the home dog here.
Good luck fellas!
16-7 CBB
The last 7 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 5 points or less. Oakland also has won 6 of the last 8 meetings SU. Oakland has covered the last 4 meetings ATS including twice at home and three times as an underdog. This is conference play, these teams know each other well. They play close tight games. IMO this is an overlay based on how Valpo has played so far OOC. Based on their recent history and knowledge of each other this line should be around Valpo PK or -1 at best.
Last year on January 4th, 2014 a 5-11 Oakland team won 75-70 at home and covered as 2 point fav over a 9-7 Valpo. I feel the line today is inflated to -5.5 based on Valpo's early season cupcake schedule. Oakland should battle hard and make this game very competitive down to the wire. Win or lose, I feel I have to back the home dog here.
Good luck fellas!
16-7 CBB
