Duke +21
Stanford is flying across country on Thursday to play a 3:30 ET day game in Durham, NC infront of 54 lifeless fans. I just really do not see how Stanford gets up 100% for this game. Last time they played a regualr season road game on the east coast was 2009 against Wake Forest, which they lost. We all know from the NFL that cross-country traveling isn't easy in-season, and those NFL guys don't even have to take classes at Stanford monday-thursday.
I know it was a different Stanford team that lost to Wake than the top-10 squad that's rolling into Durham this weekend, but I don't believe they are the same team that ended the season last year with a huge bowl win. I don't think you can lose a top-tier coach and not miss a beat. Out-of-Conference Road games against an unranked opponent when you are highly ranked is a spot where an intense, experienced coach has value. Also, history has shown that bettors put too much stock into college QBs that are "NFL Ready" when it comes to line value, and I think that will be the case this year with Luck.
Finally, let's not mistake the beatdown Duke took last year from Alabama at home as a template for how this game is going to go. That Alabama team was a different animal than the Stanford team that's playing this weekend. Don't let Alabama's record last year fool you, they were much better than the number of loses indicated. Much like Duke was much better last week than their loss indicates. Duke outgained Richmond by 100 yards while running a very balanced offense that did a really good job of moving the chains. 2 Turnovers, 2 missed field goals, and poor redzone execution caused Duke to lose out on some scoring opportunities that eventually cost them the game. Granted, I understand this was all against Richmond, but Duke does put some points on the board and is capable of being effective in their offense.
In my opinion, Stanford plays flat on both offense and defense, giving up a few too many scores to Duke. I believe Stanford still wins the game easily, but I see them running out the 4th quarter to quickly finish off a game that is closer than they expected. Stanford 31-Duke 17
Stanford is flying across country on Thursday to play a 3:30 ET day game in Durham, NC infront of 54 lifeless fans. I just really do not see how Stanford gets up 100% for this game. Last time they played a regualr season road game on the east coast was 2009 against Wake Forest, which they lost. We all know from the NFL that cross-country traveling isn't easy in-season, and those NFL guys don't even have to take classes at Stanford monday-thursday.
I know it was a different Stanford team that lost to Wake than the top-10 squad that's rolling into Durham this weekend, but I don't believe they are the same team that ended the season last year with a huge bowl win. I don't think you can lose a top-tier coach and not miss a beat. Out-of-Conference Road games against an unranked opponent when you are highly ranked is a spot where an intense, experienced coach has value. Also, history has shown that bettors put too much stock into college QBs that are "NFL Ready" when it comes to line value, and I think that will be the case this year with Luck.
Finally, let's not mistake the beatdown Duke took last year from Alabama at home as a template for how this game is going to go. That Alabama team was a different animal than the Stanford team that's playing this weekend. Don't let Alabama's record last year fool you, they were much better than the number of loses indicated. Much like Duke was much better last week than their loss indicates. Duke outgained Richmond by 100 yards while running a very balanced offense that did a really good job of moving the chains. 2 Turnovers, 2 missed field goals, and poor redzone execution caused Duke to lose out on some scoring opportunities that eventually cost them the game. Granted, I understand this was all against Richmond, but Duke does put some points on the board and is capable of being effective in their offense.
In my opinion, Stanford plays flat on both offense and defense, giving up a few too many scores to Duke. I believe Stanford still wins the game easily, but I see them running out the 4th quarter to quickly finish off a game that is closer than they expected. Stanford 31-Duke 17
Notre Dame -3.5
There seems to be a lot of people on the RX all over this play. I don't want to give too much of a write-up because it wouldn't be anything any of you guys probably hadn't read or thought about already. I just refuse to punish Notre Dame too much for last week's loss when they were able to move the ball well in a strange game that they lost mainly on turnovers. The home crowd was taken out of the game by the two suspensions of play and Notre Dame still moved the ball down the field and held South Florida in check in the 2nd half. Notre Dame actually only gave up 1 offensive TD. I think this line is down to -3, and I love it even more at that number. I took it at -3.5, and that's where I'll play this game with my money and my record. Best of luck guys.
There seems to be a lot of people on the RX all over this play. I don't want to give too much of a write-up because it wouldn't be anything any of you guys probably hadn't read or thought about already. I just refuse to punish Notre Dame too much for last week's loss when they were able to move the ball well in a strange game that they lost mainly on turnovers. The home crowd was taken out of the game by the two suspensions of play and Notre Dame still moved the ball down the field and held South Florida in check in the 2nd half. Notre Dame actually only gave up 1 offensive TD. I think this line is down to -3, and I love it even more at that number. I took it at -3.5, and that's where I'll play this game with my money and my record. Best of luck guys.
UL Lafayette +9
Both Kent State and UL Lafayetter played top-10 teams to open the season last week. However, one played a Defensive jugernaut and the other played an offensive jugernaut. I've got to favor the team who didn't take a beating from a physical SEC team; therefore, I am going to side with UL Lafayette. If you don't think that a physical game against a bigger opponent matters, just look at the way Boise St. schedules each year. They took 9 days off between games after playing Oregon in 2009, they took 12 games off after playing Va Tech last year, and they are taking 13 days off between opponents this year after beating UGA. This isn't an accident. Boise St realizes that playing Va Tech and UGA is more physically demanding than Wyoming; therefore, they take extra days off before getting back to winning. I think Kent State will be physically drained after facing the defensive line of Alabama, and I think that will show up this week at home. Ok. State is a great team, but they are great for different reasons than Alabama. I don't think ULL's game against OK State was as physical as Kent States, and I think that will have an impact. ULL was able to score some points last week and they moved the chains well picking up a lot of first downs. If UL Lafayette can put up 34 against a good team, I think they will be able to score a few TDs on a tired team. Conversely, it's tough for Kent St to have confidence in your offense when your timing and rythmn gets disrupted like it did last week. Kent St's QB went 20/47 for 99 yards, and I can't imagine he's going to be feeling great tomorrow. I think UL Lafayette is capable of winning this game against a better overall team given the situation.
Both Kent State and UL Lafayetter played top-10 teams to open the season last week. However, one played a Defensive jugernaut and the other played an offensive jugernaut. I've got to favor the team who didn't take a beating from a physical SEC team; therefore, I am going to side with UL Lafayette. If you don't think that a physical game against a bigger opponent matters, just look at the way Boise St. schedules each year. They took 9 days off between games after playing Oregon in 2009, they took 12 games off after playing Va Tech last year, and they are taking 13 days off between opponents this year after beating UGA. This isn't an accident. Boise St realizes that playing Va Tech and UGA is more physically demanding than Wyoming; therefore, they take extra days off before getting back to winning. I think Kent State will be physically drained after facing the defensive line of Alabama, and I think that will show up this week at home. Ok. State is a great team, but they are great for different reasons than Alabama. I don't think ULL's game against OK State was as physical as Kent States, and I think that will have an impact. ULL was able to score some points last week and they moved the chains well picking up a lot of first downs. If UL Lafayette can put up 34 against a good team, I think they will be able to score a few TDs on a tired team. Conversely, it's tough for Kent St to have confidence in your offense when your timing and rythmn gets disrupted like it did last week. Kent St's QB went 20/47 for 99 yards, and I can't imagine he's going to be feeling great tomorrow. I think UL Lafayette is capable of winning this game against a better overall team given the situation.
Nevada +26.5
This definitly isn't a popular play, which is one reason I like it even more. Nevada had a solid season last year, but isn't the same team this year. And I think everyone recognizes that due to the attention that Colin Kaepernick received in the draft and competiting for the starting spot in San Fran. However, I think people are assuming that Nevada is going to be a much worse team than they actually will be. I certainly think they will take a step back this year, but that step won't be as bug as people assume. Nevada scored 30+ points in 11 of their 14 games last year, and score 49+ in 6 of the 14. I know these were against weak opponents and it was last year's team, but I don't see Nevada suddenly being offensively challenged. As far as Oregon is concerned, they are a great a team as everyone knows. However, I am not sure they are going to be great in this game. 7 days ago, Oregon was preparing to play the game of the week in front of 100,000+ people in an amazing stadium on National TV. They were ready to play a top opponent in one of the most hyped opening weekend games in recent memory. They were National Title contenders, and they knew a win would jump them into the front-runner position for that title game. Then...they went out and lost to LSU's backup QB, and now are totally irrelevant in the NCG hunt. In my opinion, there has to be a huge let down of emotion for the players on Oregon's team, and I don't see that let down being overcome within 7 days. Not to mention, the comments by Chip Kelly regarding the different level of athletes that they saw last week has to have this team drinking less of their own Kool-aid. Not only did the LSU loss (and Auburn loss) take away some of Oregon's swagger, but I think they are also a little banged up from last week. Texas had a lot of trouble getting over their NCG loss, and it wouldn't surprise me if Oregon had a similar issue throughout the season. I don't think Oregon is going to go 7-5, but I don't think they are going to peel off 60+ point games throughout the season. I think Nevada is a solid play and this line is rising. I released it at +26.5, and I will take it just before game time when I think it will be the highest. For record purposes, I'll track this at a +26.5 release. Take the points, and look for Nevada to keep it within the number.
This definitly isn't a popular play, which is one reason I like it even more. Nevada had a solid season last year, but isn't the same team this year. And I think everyone recognizes that due to the attention that Colin Kaepernick received in the draft and competiting for the starting spot in San Fran. However, I think people are assuming that Nevada is going to be a much worse team than they actually will be. I certainly think they will take a step back this year, but that step won't be as bug as people assume. Nevada scored 30+ points in 11 of their 14 games last year, and score 49+ in 6 of the 14. I know these were against weak opponents and it was last year's team, but I don't see Nevada suddenly being offensively challenged. As far as Oregon is concerned, they are a great a team as everyone knows. However, I am not sure they are going to be great in this game. 7 days ago, Oregon was preparing to play the game of the week in front of 100,000+ people in an amazing stadium on National TV. They were ready to play a top opponent in one of the most hyped opening weekend games in recent memory. They were National Title contenders, and they knew a win would jump them into the front-runner position for that title game. Then...they went out and lost to LSU's backup QB, and now are totally irrelevant in the NCG hunt. In my opinion, there has to be a huge let down of emotion for the players on Oregon's team, and I don't see that let down being overcome within 7 days. Not to mention, the comments by Chip Kelly regarding the different level of athletes that they saw last week has to have this team drinking less of their own Kool-aid. Not only did the LSU loss (and Auburn loss) take away some of Oregon's swagger, but I think they are also a little banged up from last week. Texas had a lot of trouble getting over their NCG loss, and it wouldn't surprise me if Oregon had a similar issue throughout the season. I don't think Oregon is going to go 7-5, but I don't think they are going to peel off 60+ point games throughout the season. I think Nevada is a solid play and this line is rising. I released it at +26.5, and I will take it just before game time when I think it will be the highest. For record purposes, I'll track this at a +26.5 release. Take the points, and look for Nevada to keep it within the number.
Penn State/Alabama u42
4 different QBs will take snaps in this game. That alone should tell you that these two teams are still figuring out some things on offense. On top of that, both teams have better than average defenses with Alabama probably having the #1 defense in the country. Penn St has a very solid defensive line that matches up great against the weak Alabama O-line. Alabama is a running team by nature but playing on the road against a solid defense with two inexperience QBs will force Alabama to rely more on that running game than usual. However, their offensive line problems from last year don't seem to be much better so they will find running the ball to be difficult against this Penn St team. Penn St struggled passing the football in their opening game last week against a very mediocre opponent, and it will be much tougher this week. If Penn St. becomes one deminsional on offense against Alabama, they will have huge problems. Penn St will try to win it by keeping it close for 3 quarters and relying on the home crowd in the 4th. On the otherside, Alabama will try to win this game with field position, special teams, and defense. Neither one of these teams want to have to ask their QBs to bring them from behind against these defenses so look for conservative play calling and a short game.
4 different QBs will take snaps in this game. That alone should tell you that these two teams are still figuring out some things on offense. On top of that, both teams have better than average defenses with Alabama probably having the #1 defense in the country. Penn St has a very solid defensive line that matches up great against the weak Alabama O-line. Alabama is a running team by nature but playing on the road against a solid defense with two inexperience QBs will force Alabama to rely more on that running game than usual. However, their offensive line problems from last year don't seem to be much better so they will find running the ball to be difficult against this Penn St team. Penn St struggled passing the football in their opening game last week against a very mediocre opponent, and it will be much tougher this week. If Penn St. becomes one deminsional on offense against Alabama, they will have huge problems. Penn St will try to win it by keeping it close for 3 quarters and relying on the home crowd in the 4th. On the otherside, Alabama will try to win this game with field position, special teams, and defense. Neither one of these teams want to have to ask their QBs to bring them from behind against these defenses so look for conservative play calling and a short game.
The halftime score of this New Mexico St and Minnesota score makes me like the under in the USC game tonight even more. USC only managed 19 points against Minnesota but yet New Mexico St puts up 21 in the first half. I don't normally like to play the "connect-the-dots" game when it comes to plays, and I liked the under long before this game kicked off, but this game just reinforces some of my opinions from capping the game.
New Mexico 14 first-downs on 33 plays
226 yards passing
New Mexico 14 first-downs on 33 plays
226 yards passing
