Sekrah said:
I totally disagree-- you won't get a one single G1 win from that sextet this year...all overcome by the rigors of the TC chase and/or having constructed their records on sub-par competition and/or just having been precocious early(meaning passed by slower-maturing types.
1. Bernardini
2. one of the also rans from the TC will assert himself later on.
3. someone that hasn't run in the TC trail yet will appear on the scene.
charleslanger said:
Rigors of the Triple crown race? They've all only raced one leg (except for Brother Derek and SNS ), and I like any of those 4 (minus Brother Derek and SNS) to win the Belmont,
Forget Bernardini. He ran an O.K. Preakness race where 3 of the best horses were coming off supreme Derby efforts just 2 weeks prior. He does not beat Barbaro, Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and the several horses I mentioned when everybody is on rest. If those 3 horses are coming off a couple extra weeks rest, Bernardini finishes 4th.
Who were the 3yo Classic Contenders last year? Flower Alley (ran in Derby and 3 prep races). Sun King (ran in Derby, Preakness, and 3 prep races). Only Oratorio (UK Shipper) was a non-triple crown contending 3yo.
3yo's in 2004 Classic? Birdstone (Derby, Belmont, 3 prep races), Fantasticat was there but he had no business being there.
3yo's in 2003 Classic? Funny Cide, Ten Most Wanted and some UK Shipper
Brother Derek (and those other 5 I mentoned) all have a MUCH greater chance of being a serious B.C. Classic contender this season than Bernardini does
The one three year old race that is perhaps #2 to the Kentucky Derby.. The Travers Stakes, held in August at Saratoga.
Last 5 winners
2005 - Flower Alley
2004 - Birdstone
2003 - Ten Most Wanted
2002 - Medaglia d'Oro
2001 - Point Given
You have any idea what these 5 horses have in common? Yes, they all ran in the Derby and all of the Derby prep races leading up to it.
Roman Ruler was really the only major non triple crown runner last year to have an impact in the Stakes races, but he was well raced as a 2yo and had his TC hopes derailed by injury.. He does not follow the Bernardini line.
Let's look at other Post-Triple Crown, major stakes route races for 3 year old colts.
Haskell Invitational (G1)
2005 - Roman Ruler (Sun King 2nd!)
2004 - Lion Heart
2003 - Peace Rules
2002 - War Emblem
2001 - Point Given
2000 - Dixie Union (Non Derby)
1999 - Menifee
1998 - Coronado's Quest (Non-Derby)
1997 - Touch Gold
1996 - Skip Away
7 of the last 10 years, Derby horse has won the Haskell!
The two major 3yo route races post TC have been owned by Derby runners!!
To dismiss the horses that I named as legitimate 3 year old champions claiming they will suffer from the "Triple Crown rigors" is simply ignoring the historical facts.
Last 5 winners
2005 - Flower Alley
2004 - Birdstone
2003 - Ten Most Wanted
2002 - Medaglia d'Oro
2001 - Point Given
You have any idea what these 5 horses have in common? Yes, they all ran in the Derby and all of the Derby prep races leading up to it.
Roman Ruler was really the only major non triple crown runner last year to have an impact in the Stakes races, but he was well raced as a 2yo and had his TC hopes derailed by injury.. He does not follow the Bernardini line.
Let's look at other Post-Triple Crown, major stakes route races for 3 year old colts.
Haskell Invitational (G1)
2005 - Roman Ruler (Sun King 2nd!)
2004 - Lion Heart
2003 - Peace Rules
2002 - War Emblem
2001 - Point Given
2000 - Dixie Union (Non Derby)
1999 - Menifee
1998 - Coronado's Quest (Non-Derby)
1997 - Touch Gold
1996 - Skip Away
7 of the last 10 years, Derby horse has won the Haskell!
The two major 3yo route races post TC have been owned by Derby runners!!
To dismiss the horses that I named as legitimate 3 year old champions claiming they will suffer from the "Triple Crown rigors" is simply ignoring the historical facts.
gynecologist said:
uppy: Let's see.. I told you Barbaro and Brother Derek were non-contenders in the Preakness, you told me you had enough of my shit and told me to F-off. Both proved unfit to race and finished out of the money as I predicted.
Bernardini beats a softened up field without a single good 3yo horse in top condition, and he's a monster?
I can only
uppy: When this "MONSTER" beats a quality fit horse, let me know. I'll be waiting here patiently.
gynecologist said:
Thanks for the riveting analysis. Sorry for challenging your handicapping authority, I should of known better since you are one of the big professional handicappers that rakes in the big bucks around here.
Because of your input I'm sold too.. Bernardini has the potential to be the next Cigar at the rate he's going.. Wouldn't be suprised if he won 30 races in a row.
I heard that on the way back out to the barns after the Preakness, he saw Chuck Norris and kicked his ass all over the place. That's one serious animal.
btw Thank you for taking this in the spirit of debate, rather than an attack against you.Sekrah said:
Firstly, by way of explaining my peculiar stance--inho this particular year(& its young and older crops) is different from most years... has its own particular set of circumstances. So far, for '06-- potential(lightly-raced with ascending internal & final figs) & physicality seem to rule the roost, esp. w/ the dearth of outstanding young & older horses.
Secondly, TC Chase started late last year--as far as horses being rushed into racing & overraced: not afforded the luxury of enough rest to overcome nagging problems...& this seems particularly keen this season-- in particular BD & SNS have nagging problems they are racing through instead of being rested/mended, & have not kept their weight-- they're toast for this year, as far as I'm concerned...on top of the fact they have beat nothing yet--albeit w/ a coupla recent excuses(which i don't buy-- but that's subjective).
Thirdly, your horses are already done with their growth spurts-- they had them earlier than other horses, & they've been synthetically hormoned up the kazoo to keep them racing soundly--nixing any more substantial vertical growth(bone plates fuse, their bones will only get wider & heavier--making them ideal sprinter/milers, not classic routers). Lightly-raced or sidelined counterparts will be overtaking the current crop when they now hit their spurts... & their upward growth is less likely to be stunted.
I am focusing on a horse whose internal & final numbers are both still ascending from race to race, this made even more impressive with light experience--whose numbers have not peaked yet-- he is much more likely to be a champ...than asking a much more experienced contender whose numbers have already leveled off-- to suddenly pop a number much higher than it ever has.
I am always looking for the horse likeliest to grow more & pop the biggest iimprovement from its last number. And I will always take young & unknown-yet prospects to at year-ebd over the early wonders. But they must also show ability-- so uncontested leads on soft fractions over speed-biased tracks w/o to boot any quality closers present...do not impress.
All the best to you.
Final clarification / in a gist:
I would group horses like Barbaro & Bernardini in the lightly-raced or at least widely-spaced with ascending numbers AND little hype...with MAYBE already having overcome some bad trip to still win group.
and horses like Brother Derek / SNS / Lawyer Ron / Bluegrass Cat in the overhyped, overraced, AND NOT having proved themselves...with MAYBE multiple excuses trip reasons for not having won group.
And I am NOT impartial in the way i judge both groups--since the second one usually brings with it, apart from lower odds, stunted vertical growth & racing with minor nagging ailments not totally cured.
When does a horse shed the unproven label & join the potential champ group?
a. With just ONE race:
where it ran fast early AND fast late, WHILE with pressure / company or some racing trouble, NOT aided by track bias or race shape, finishing either geared down or galloping out far & strong.
b. Its final AND internal figs keep ascending from race to race.
Lastly, i have no vow of loyalty to or lasting enmity towards any horse whatsoever--it's all about the money baby...& my Gordon Gekko 'values' reflect this: fair-weather friend only, what have you done for me lately, promiscuous attraction to all new strangers/arrivals.
If I didn't do this, then all my years spent handicapping would be completely for naught.
May the greed be with you.
I would group horses like Barbaro & Bernardini in the lightly-raced or at least widely-spaced with ascending numbers AND little hype...with MAYBE already having overcome some bad trip to still win group.
and horses like Brother Derek / SNS / Lawyer Ron / Bluegrass Cat in the overhyped, overraced, AND NOT having proved themselves...with MAYBE multiple excuses trip reasons for not having won group.
And I am NOT impartial in the way i judge both groups--since the second one usually brings with it, apart from lower odds, stunted vertical growth & racing with minor nagging ailments not totally cured.
When does a horse shed the unproven label & join the potential champ group?
a. With just ONE race:
where it ran fast early AND fast late, WHILE with pressure / company or some racing trouble, NOT aided by track bias or race shape, finishing either geared down or galloping out far & strong.
b. Its final AND internal figs keep ascending from race to race.
Lastly, i have no vow of loyalty to or lasting enmity towards any horse whatsoever--it's all about the money baby...& my Gordon Gekko 'values' reflect this: fair-weather friend only, what have you done for me lately, promiscuous attraction to all new strangers/arrivals.
If I didn't do this, then all my years spent handicapping would be completely for naught.
May the greed be with you.
