Notre Dame vs Penn State on 01/09 by boxgames

Notre Dame has covered 10 straight games and that is a streak we would like to fade but they were favored big in the first nine games and closed as a one point favorite against Georgia and are now slightly favored against Penn St. so winning by margin has not been an issue in this game and the last game. This game sets up very similar to the Georgia game as this is a strength against strength (Penn St. offense vs. Notre Dame defense) and slight weakness against slight weakness (Notre Dame offense vs. Penn St. defense) but there are integral parts within each of those that gives Notre Dame the edge. Notre Dame rushed for 154 yards against Georgia and on the season, the Irish are second in EPA/rush while averaging 6.7 ypc and 3.94 YAC which is No. 1 in the country. Riley Leonard led the way with 80 rushing yards and while he threw for just 90 yards, he did not need to throw a ton or take deep chances. His dual-threat ability allows him to avoid the pass rush with an 11.5 percent pressure-to-sack rate which is No. 6 among Power Four quarterbacks. Notre Dame is 20-4 ATS when rushing for more than 100 yards since 2023. Penn St. was able to lock down the coveted No. 5 seed and has had the easiest path to the CFP Semifinals with games against SMU and Boise St. This is more of a run heavy offense as well as quarterback Drew Allar averages only 24.7 attempts per game which is No. 53 out of 57 Power Four quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts. It will be his ability to find his receivers in one-on-one coverage on second and third down which could dictate how long the offense stays on the field and I do not think he will have success. On the other side, the strength is in the secondary as the Nittany Lions are No. 7 in the country in yards allowed per dropback at 5.2 but Notre Dame does not need to throw to win as we have seen.