THE SPORTS REPORTER
NFL SUMMARY OF PLAYS
BEST BETS
*N.Y. JETS over MIAMI by 10
HOUSTON over *NEW ORLEANS by 3
RECOMMENDED PLAYS
WASHINGTON over *ATLANTA by 6
*KANSAS CITY over PITTSBURGH by 11
NCAA SUMMARY OF PLAYS
BEST BETS
PURDUE over *WAKE FOREST by 12
*AKRON over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 31
RECOMMENDED PLAYS
LOUISVILLE over *SYRACUSE by 6
*PITTSBURGH over BALL STATE by 39
MEMPHIS over *SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI by 3
*FLORIDA STATE over GEORGIA TECH by 34
*NEBRASKA over PENN STATE by 19
Detailed Analysis
BEST BET
*N.Y. JETS over MIAMI by 10
As expected, Vinny and the Jets lost at Washington last Thursday night, but the effort really wasn’t that bad and certainly gives the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets something to build on for the rest of this season as they make both their home and divisional debut this week. Testaverde threw only about 20 passes in the pre-season and should benefit from last week’s start along with the rest of the New York offense. On the plus side, the Jetsons’ defense did play a pretty good game on the road, protected Vinnie well enough, and now Herman Edwards has had three extra days of prep time to gear up for this weekend’s AFC East battle. The Dolphins continued the trend of being much better at home than on the road under Dave Wannstedt last season, and were only 2-6 against the spread away from home including 0-4 as road favorites. The Dolphins are 0-3 straight-up at the Jets under Wannstedt, and have lost their last three games dating back to last season, all as the favorite. Man, if we hated Miami last week against Houston, it’s for damn sure we go right back against them. The Dolphins are an overrated, stale team on the downside. Jets aren’t much, but this game has the look of Miami’s sixth straight loss in New York. N.Y. JETS, 24-14.
BEST BET
HOUSTON over *NEW ORLEANS by 3
Teams, quarterbacks, coaches, waterboys, etc. generally make their biggest improvement in Try #2. For Houston, Try #1 was last season, their debut year. People called and laughed at Sports Reporter’s Recommended Play on the Texans last week at Miami. “Oh, the Dolphins ALWAYS cover at home in September…”What is so hard to grasp about Houston having the better defense and the better quarterback, plus points? It will happen a lot this season, and this again is one of those times. New Orleans QB Aaron Brooks? A hack compared to David Carr. Carr was a #1 draft choice. Brooks was a free agent with legs. The differences have already begun to show. Until Houston gets hit with injuries that expose their depth problems, expect them to make money. In 1996, head coach Dom Capers improved the expansion Carolina Panthers from +4.4 points better than the spread in Year 1, to +8.9 points better than the spread in their second season in the NFL. Carolina made the NFC Championship Game that year. Now, Capers is head coach at Houston. Can lightning strike twice? Maybe, maybe not, but we’re not looking at lightning.We’re looking at Week #2 in NFL 2003, with a live underdog taking the field. What is New Orleans? This is the team that lost to Detroit and Cincinnati last season, right? This is the team that couldn’t stop the run last season when they had a known run-stuffer, Norman Hand, anchoring their defensive line. This is a team that comes home after scoring only 10 points against a Seattle team with a ton of defensive problems. Dom Capers can de-pants more NFL head coaches than just Dave Wannstedt. Dead team, the Saints? HOUSTON, 23-20.
BEST BET
PURDUE over *WAKE FOREST by 12College football is an emotionally-charged happening from week-to-week but it’s very hard for the non-elite teams to keep winning when they’re not 100 percent (or close to 100 percent) charged up. Wake Forest should discover that fact of life here after Jim Grobe’s team spanked touchdown-plus underdog N.C. State last weekend 38-24 in a game that was never that close. Now, Wake must get emotionally charged to play a Purdue team it upset last year in West Lafayette, courtesy of some really bad officiating. How bad was it? Bad enough that the refs were removed from further duties last year. The Boilermakers were 10-point favs for that game and fell 24-21, but turnabout’s fair play especially when you have a quarterback who can light it up. Kyle Orton was not fully immersed in Purdue’s pass-happy system when the teams met a year ago, yet he still threw for 331 yards. The key to the loss, besides the bad refs, was four lost fumbles by Purdue. Orton threw for 255 yards last Saturday in Purdue’s loss to Bowling Green, which can be excused due to BG having a game under the belt vs. Purdue coming in cold.Wake’s defensive front likely won’t put on much heat and no secondary can stand having to cover quality receivers forever. Purdue wide receiver John Standeford will be this game’s stat-sheet stuffer deluxe … you heard it here first! Purdue, 37-25.
BEST BET
*AKRON over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 31Eastern Michigan has already lost starting QB Jeff Crooks to a broken leg and then lost to I-AA team Western Illinois, although Western is ranked fourth in that division. Akron should be encouraged about their effort against Wisconsin, where a 14-point swing inthe span of two plays was a major difference in an eventual 48-31 loss. (Zips were stopped at goal line on fourth down, then surrendered 99-yard TD pass.) Wisconsin hasone of the finest assortment of skill players in the country. EMU, well, does not evencome close, and their defense is lousy too. In EMU’s last six MAC games of 2002, theyallowed 55, 42, 47, 33, 49, and 63 points. Opposing offensive coordinators can’t wait to get to work during EMU week! Last season, Troy Edwards of EMU was the guy who almost single-handedly beat Akron, 42-34. He threw for 390 yards. This year, he ain’t there. And now Crooks is down. It’s not the way a team wants to be starting its 2003 MAC season. The Akronian offense, led by experienced QB Charlie Frye, is already in mid-season form, and for the less-than-stellar Akron defense, this is a big class drop from the offensive skills of Kent’s Josh Cribbs in the first game, and Wisconsin’s boatload of future NFLers from last weekend. Akron, 45-14.
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WINNING POINTS NEWSLETTER
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:
BEST BETS
**** Indianapolis over Tennessee by 20
*** Cincinnati over *Oakland by 6
PREFERRED PLAYS
*New York Jets over Miami by 7
*Green Bay over Detroit by 15
NFL TOTALS
***OVER: Pittsburgh at Kansas City – Two excellent passing attacks square off here against weak defenses.
UNDER: Carolina at Tampa Bay – In a clash of the league’s top two defenses look for the Panthers to play conservatively on the road.
OVER: Denver at San Diego – Not only do both teams feature outstanding
running backs, but inexperienced defenses are in the mix, too.
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:
BEST BETS
**** NEBRASKA* over PENN STATE by 27
*** CONNECTICUT* over BOSTON COLLEGE by 12
RECOMMENDATIONS
Purdue over Wake Forest* by 12
B.Y.U. over New Mexico* by 14
Michigan* over Notre Dame by 21
Mississippi* over UL-Monroe by 17
Detailed Analysis
****BEST BET
*Indianapolis over Tennessee by 20
This is one of the biggest early-season games for the Colts in years, and we believe Indy will get it down.The Titans are just 2-7 ATS on artificial turf and their vulnerable secondary is going to have plenty of problems stopping Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison.With Jevon Kearse and Carlos Hall rebounding from injuries, the Titans’ pass rush shouldn’t be as fierce early in the season.That’s important because the Colts use three receiver sets almost extensively.The Titans don’t have enough experience in their secondary to cover everyone.Although Manning wasn’t particularly sharp last week against Cleveland, he had an excellent preseason throwing four touchdowns with no interceptions. The Titans also have to account for Edgerrin James, who unlike last year, seems fully recovered from a knee injury.The Colts defense has improved considerably under Tony Dungy.The defense should be even better having had a year picking up Dungy’s system. Indy has good speed. This comes from having one of the lightest defenses. Because of this, the Colts are susceptible to power running teams.A couple of years ago this wouldn’t have been a good matchup for the Colts because of that. But the Titans have become much more of a passing threat now with Steve McNair.Their ground game isn’t what it used to be.The Titans averaged just 2.7 yards per carry in preseason. Running back Eddie George is wearing down. So the emphasis has switched to McNair. Nothing against McNair, who is a marvelous talent, but the Colts have the better offense because of James and Harrison.They also have superior tight ends. McNair can’t match this kind of arsenal. In addition, the Colts will be playing in front of a pumped audience at home while having a huge surface advantage with the game on carpet. INDIANAPOLIS 34-14.
***BEST BET
Cincinnati over *Oakland by 6
Under new coach Marvin Lewis the Bengals could finally be ready to join the rest of the NFL and discover the joys of parity.While you can still refer to the Bengals as the Los Angeles Clippers of the Midwest, encouraging signs are emerging.Thanks to Lewis, the Bengals came out of training camp in better shape.Their revamped defense looked good in preseason, which shouldn’t be a surprise since Lewis is a defensive guru and the architect behind Baltimore’s great Super Bowl defense. Even though the Bengals were disappointing in losing to Denver opening week, they were only outgained 287-273. Lewis has weapons on offense. Jon Kitna is a 3,000-yard passer,Corey Dillon a perennial 1,000-yard rusher and Chad Johnson developed into a legitimate deep threat.With Lewis the Bengals finally seem like a professional unit rather than their old Bungles self.The key for Lewis is improving special teams, cutting down turnovers, which killed the Bengals in their opener, and getting Cincinnati out of its traditional early season funk. Cincinnati is 9-37 in games played before October.The Bengals have lost 39 straight on the road to teams with winning records. That streak dates back to 1990. It’s a highly embarrassing mark that Lewis desperately wants to eradicate. Getting out of town could be the best thing now for the Bengals, since the pressure is all on Oakland.The Raiders are an aging club on the decline.A key here is the Bengals catch Oakland in a sandwich spot. The Raiders are off an emotional Sunday night game against Tennessee, the team they beat in the AFC championship game last season. The Raiders then have archrival Denver up next on Monday night.Somehow we get the impression the Raiders will be gunning more for Denver than Cincinnati. CINCINNATI 27-21.
****BEST BET
NEBRASKA* over PENN STATE by 27
In a season in which the emphasis is on returning that swagger to the “Black Shirts” on defense (ridiculed as the “Black SKIRTS” by some in Lincoln last year), there are few games that are going to inspire more motivation to that unit that this one. The Cornhusker defenders were embarrassed to the tune of a 40-7 defeat in front of a national television audience on a Saturday night almost a year ago to the very day. Today it will be a much different story. Now it is indeed a much improved defense, with the schemes of Bo Pellini bringing a needed aggressiveness to the playbook. And now the offense that ran through them for those 40 points is basically here in uniform only, It is becoming painfully apparent for Joe Paterno that Zack Mills is a very average talent at QB, and Mills has struggled to make anything happen without being surrounded by N.F.L. First Rounders Larry and Bryant Johnson. But inexperienced Michael Robinson is not the answer yet, despite that tremendous athleticism. That gives the Nebraska defense an opportunity to dominate this game, which also means plenty of good field position for an offense that should be able to run effectively between the tackles. In the first two games Temple’s Mackennon Fenton and B.C.’s Derrick Knight combined for 274 yards at 5.6 per carry vs. a soft Lion defensive front, and that was at friendly Beaver Stadium. There are few places worse than Lincoln if you are soft in the trenches defensively. NEBRASKA 37-10.
***BEST BET
CONNECTICUT* over BOSTON COLLEGE by 12
Last week we had these Huskies pegged near the top of the page in that easy triumph over Army, and in doing so detailed just how far off the oddsmakers are in measuring this program. Randy Edsall’s squad is now 10-2 ATS since the start of last season, but even more important than the overall record is the fact that eight of those covers have been by at least double figures vs. the closing line. Included in that stretch was a near-miss in this matchup LY, when they came in as 33-point underdogs and took the Eagles to the absolute limit, before falling 24-16. In many ways the setting is similar to that one, except for the change in venue, and when that change is combined with the deeper stock of talent than LY the uskies get the breakthrough this time. The key is that this is their Game of the Year, against a close regional rival that they would love to defeat more than any other, and to also establish recruiting in-roads in the Boston area. That emotion showed in the narrow 2002 defeat. But for the Eagles it is another matter entirely. They come in sandwiched off of that upset at Penn State, and with a major home showdown vs. Miami F. next week in their Big East opener. That difference in focus spells upset here, if indeed that word should even be used when Connecticut wins this, as the continued development of Dan Orlovsky (624 passing yards and eight TD’s already) tells us that the wrong team might be favored going in. CONNECTICUT 33-21.
