The Red Sheet
[font=verdana, arial, helvetica]OCTOBER 9, 2004 VOLUME 36, NUMBER 6
TEXAS TECH 44 - Nebraska 24 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Texas Tech minus 6½, and is now minus 7.
We went with the Huskers the past couple of weeks on Pointwise, suffering through a
nailbiting win at Pitt, after quick 2-TD ******, & losing in an inept offensive showing (11
FDs) while hosting a Kansas team that they simply own. Get this: Nebraska has reached
40 pts in only 2 of its last 26 games, & is in off rushing outputs of just 123 & 139 yds. Simply
unheard of. Enter the Raiders, & possibly the most explosive offense in the land, when they
get cooking. Tech QB Cumbie already has a dozen TD passes & nearly 2,100 yds. Raiders
couldn't handle Okies last week, but are super 18-4 ATS at home off a loss. Haven't met
since '01, when Huskers used 335 RYs for 10-pt win. It won't happen here.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 89
MARYLAND 37 - Georgia Tech 14 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Maryland minus 11½, and is now minus 11.
Since the arrival of Ralph Friedgen in '01, the Terp gridiron fortunes have taken a decided
step up. He has posted an enviable 25-9 record, on field, along with a highly profitable
spread log of 26-13. Last year's loss to the Jackets represents one of those rare misses,
when the Terps lost their starting QB in the 1st half. Maryland has struggled early with
Statham, but he clicked for 4 TD passes in last outing (38-pt cover at Duke, before taking a
bye week), & well remembers his miserable showing in that '03 setback. Jackets have
turned into a giveaway machine of late (10 in last 2 games), while QB Ball is providing little
leadership (8-of-26 with 3 INTs last week). Terps are fully focused for this revenger.
RATING: MARYLAND 89
MIAMI-OHIO 31 - Kent State 24 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 18, and is still minus 18. A year ago,
the Redhawks of Miami were one of the hot properties on the college gridiron scene, breezing
through the MAC, & posting an easy win over a respectable Louisville team, in the
GMAC Bowl. Thirteen straight wins, after an opening week stumble at Iowa. But the
departure of stellar QB Roethlisberger has taken its toll. Still a decent squad, but not the
killer of '03. Miami has turned it over 19 times in its 5 games to date. The Flashes stand at
1-4, but it easily could read 4-1. Cribbs keeps 'em in just about every affair. Ditto here.
RATING: KENT STATE 88
AUBURN 48 - Louisiana Tech 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 24, and is now minus 25. Yes, we
are well aware of the fact that the Tigers are in off Tennessee, with Arkansas dead ahead,
but can see no letup for the War Eagles, who are smoking, not only behind the running of
Williams, but the leadership mature QB Campbell. Throw in a solid rush "D", which should
negate the primary Bulldog weapon, RB Moats (236 RYs vs Fresno). The fact that Tech is
in off that shocking upset, sets this one up nicely. Did anyone say "Blind Hog" as a double
digit dog the following week? Perfect Tigers won't be looking past this.
RATING: AUBURN 88
SOUTH CAROLINA 37 - Mississippi 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at South Carolina minus 17, and is still
minus 17. At first glance, we liked the chances of the Gamecocks here, but decided to table
it as any high play, in light of the fact that, despite one of the most suffocating defenses in
the nation (8 ppg), Carolina has hardly lit up the scoreboard. However, the fact remains that
LY, the 'Cocks came within a whisker of completing the most remarkable comeback win of
the season, eventually losing to the Rebs, 43-40, after trailing 43-14 in the 3rd. Ole Miss
returns only 4 starters from that defense, so moving it should not be a problem. UM only a
couple of plays from standing at 0-5 SU, & pays the price for '03 win.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88
Arizona 19 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) -- Line opened at San Fran minus 1½, and is still minus 1½.
Things sure change. Year ago, the spread in this match was 10½ pts, with the Niners an
automatic play, as the Cards were the worst road team in the NFL. The 50-14 San Fran
drubbing was a bit more than expected, but just added to 'Zona's travelling ineptitude. This
season, however, the Cards stand at 2-0 ATS as guests, with one of their spread successes
coming at St Louis, losing by just 7 pts. Contrast that to '03's 37-13 road loss to the Rams.
Arizona is allowing only 11.5 ppg on the road,. & the Niners are shells of recent explosive
selves. Card 160 RY edge last week bodes well for their chances here.
RATING: ARIZONA 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Ball State, Wake Forest, Rice, Hawaii -- NFL: Carolina, Dallas, & Green Bay
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): Purdue (-7 to -11); Toledo (-10 to -14); California (+11½ to
+7½); Minnesota (+7 to +3½); OklahomaSt (-3 to -6½); VirginiaTech (-2½ to -5½); Hawaii (-15 to -18);
Wisconsin (+6 to +3½); NewMexico (Pick to -2½); Lafayette (Pick to -2½); Stanford (+6½ to +4½); NoIllinois
(-16 to -18); Missouri (-18 to -20); Virginia (-14½ to -16); FloridaSt (-18 to -19½); KansasSt (-1 to -2½);
EastCarolina (-2½ to -4); Kentucky (+6½ to +5) -- TIME CHANGES: FlaSt/Syr: now 7:00; Wisc/OhioSt: 3:30;
TxA&M/IowaSt: 7:00; Pitt/Temple: 12:00; NCSt/UNC: 6:00; KansSt/Kans: 7:20; Ohio/Marshall: 1:00; AF/
NMex: 6:30; Aub/LSU: 3:30; OklaSt/ColoSt: 3:30; BallSt/EMich: 3:30; Fla/LSU: 7:45; Ucla/Ariz: 6:30; WkForest/
VaTech: 12:00; Rut/Vandy: 8:00; Mizzou/Baylor: 10:00; Ala/Ky: 12:30; SoCaro/Miss: 1:00........
RED SHEET ONLINE
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY[/font]
