My supporting WU for the above plays on Stanford and against Maryland is now added below:
In a nutshell, Stanford holds many edges in this game, as would be expected of a 14-point favorite. The Cardinal have a balanced, productive offense, as Sr. QB Kevin Hogan is 23-8 as a starter (11-6 vs. ranked teams) and has completed 65% of his passes for 2780 yds. with an 18-8 TD-int. ratio this season. The trio of Remound Wright, Kelsey Young and Barry Sanders Jr. combined for 1192 YR, and the OL was virtually free of injuries all season. The all-junior starting OL is led by 1st-team A-A LT Andrus Peat, projected as a first-round NFL draft choice. RS frosh TE Austin Hooper is the latest in a line of high-quality players at that position to play for Stanford, while WR Devon Cajuste recorded 17.0 ypc.. Unfortunately, top WR Ty Montgomery (61 catches) is Out, after hurting his shoulder Nov. 22 vs. Cal and sitting out for the UCLA win, where Stanford showed that they have enough weapons on offense to beat a good opponent w/o him.And his absence will result in more opportunities for versatile freshman Christian McCaffrey, who saw his role increase late in the season. Left tackle Andrus Peat leads the large, veteran and healthy Stanford offensive line, which could be tested by a Maryland defense that recorded 31 sacks. But the strength of this Stanford team, like those if the last two years, is its defense, which is led by lineman Henry Anderson (14 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks) and safety Jordan Richards, who had three interceptions, and ranks 2nd in scoring (allowing 16 ppg), 5th in total defense, and 7th vs. the pass.
So with all those positives, plus fourth year head coach David Shaw being a two-time Pac-12 Coach of the Year, how is it that Stanford, after going to an NCAA record four straight BCS bowls the L4Y, for an NCAA record during the post-2000 “BCS era,” finished with the same so so record (specifically, 7-5 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-12) as their opponent Maryland to end up in this middle run bowl? Let’s start with Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan, who struggled for much of the season but ended up with decent numbers for the season after shining against Cal and UCLA, where he completed 31-of-39 passes for 448 yards and two scores over the two games and teamed with running back Remound Wright (who rushed for a combined six touchdowns in his those two games) to finally spark an offense that had averaged 13.4 points in Stanford’s five losses. And IMO, despite being a “media darling” for most of his tenure as Stanford’s head coach, and having been a two-time Pac-12 Coach of the Year, poor play calling by head coach Shaw at critical points late in the game in the Cardinal’s 3 close losses (all by 3 points) to USC, ND and Utah are also to blame, as was also the case in Stanford’s “come from ahead” Rose Bowl loss LY to Michigan State.
Stanford, who we have handicapped for this game as a home fave since this game is a virtual home game (with Levi's Stadium in nearby Santa Clara just 11 miles from the school's Palo Alto campus) is 2-1 ATS the last two years as home faves in tonite’s 10-17 point range, with an average winning margin of 16 points. And Stanford’s “personality” this year is to overpower teams who are inferior to them, but struggle against the better opponents on their schedule. More specifically, Stanford has extended margins when it can impose its will on opponents, with its wins coming by an average of 24 pts., with only one victory by fewer than 17 points. And with Maryland having lost big to the best teams on its schedule, as detailed below, this match-up bodes well for Stanford. With Shaw as head coach, Stanford is just 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in bowl games (should have been 3-0 both SU and ATS), all 3 of them BCS bowls against opponents much better than Maryland. And one question that must be asked before getting too excited about backing Stanford tonite as a big fave in a minor bowl against a lower rung bowl team, after having played on the “big stage” in BCS bowls for the last four years, is how motivated will Stanford really be to not only win this game, but to also “put the hammer down” on Maryland? And as one might expect, there is all kind of speculation and opinions about that, but no sure answer until we see for ourselves what kind of intensity (or lack thereof) Stanford brings to this game.
Maryland (7-5 overall and 4-4 Big Ten) qualified for this bowl with 5 of its 7 wins coming against non-bowl teams and the Terrapins are looking to bounce back from a demoralizing 41-38 loss to Rutgers in their regular-season finale. QB C.J. Brown led the Terps in rushing (569 yds, 7 TDs) and threw for 2083 yds. and 13 TDs, but completed just 53% and had 9 INTs as well. Caleb Rowe might have won the starting job from Brown, but suffered a season-ending knee injury at mid-season. Maryland had a bit of success in its inaugural season in the Big Ten, posting highlight wins against traditionally-strong Iowa, Penn State and Michigan, but were out-scored by a collective 141-46 in losing to Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan St. by an average score of 47-15, despite two of those 3 blowout losses being at home. The Terps will have star WR Stefon Biggs (52 catches, 5 TDs in 9 games) back in action after he missed time with a lacerated kidney at the end of the regular season. Biggs finished second in the Big Ten in receptions per game (5.8) and was fourth with an average of 72.7 receiving yards. Biggs finished second in the Big Ten in receptions per game (5.8) and was fourth with an average of 72.7 receiving yards. He’ll likely be matched up against Stanford cornerback Alex Carter, who is considered a top NFL prospect.Only one Terp RB ran for more than 100 yds. in a game this year, Brandon Ross with 108 vs. Rutgers, but he got almost half of those on a 40-yd. TD run when a Scarlet Knight defender whiffed at the line of scrimmage on a play that should've been a 2-yard gain. The Terp defense, ranked 11th in the Big Ten in total defense, ranks 98th against the run and 81st in scoring, giving up 29 ppg, but defensive back William Likely has a team-high six interceptions and 5-11, 282-pound lineman Andre Monroe leads the team with 9.5 sacks. Maryland also boasts the nation’s best kicker in Brad Craddock (18-of-19 in field goal attempts).
To summarize, Stanford is playing a virtual home game in this bowl, and is better than Maryland at QB, RB, OL, and on defense. And we expect the Cardinal defense to close and lock the "back door" against coast-to-coast traveler Maryland, and in doing so to win this game convincingly enough to cover this large spread. But again, as pointed out above, we do have same concerns about Stanford’s intensity level for this minor bow game after having played on the “big stage” in BCS bowls for the last four years.
