NIT Deja Vu Play

[t3a]

Last wednesday, Maryland was a 9.5-10 point favorite over Oral Roberts. A couple of extremely well-respected handicappers (j/k) such as the Journeyman, Roxy and myself agreed that Maryland would not be motivated to win some little NIT game and that Oral would come to College Park and drain some 3's in the face of the weak Terps D and get the cover and maybe even an outright win. OK, so we were wrong by about 15 points. So here we go one week later, Maryland again a 10 point choice over Davidson - another team that shoots the 3 better on the road than at home (Road Games = 40.1%) and a nice won loss record (16-0 in conference) over some suspect competition. The Wildcats are also coming off two road wins including an 11 point spanking of SW Mo a few days ago.
Some more Davidson ATS stats from this year:
against a team with a winning record: 12-4
as an underdog: 9-2
in road lined games: 12-2
against teams with winning record after 15 or more games: 8-2
These guys look like road warriors on paper. So why the big line?

I am going to say based on the Terps strength of schedule and stellar home non-conference record, that the straight up win looks good, now about those 10 points - I am not falling for it again. OralRob looked good on paper too, but maybe the bright lights of the Comcast Center or the travel or something caught up with them and I think the same will happen to Davidson here when they see the difference in competition between the Elon's of the world that they accumulated their nice stats against, and Maryland.

Plus I think Lefty Dreisell will be out there somewher putting the hex on Davidson and pulling for the Terps.

Playing MD 9.5 (-106@pinny) for 5 units

 

[ProphetablePicks]

I am on Davidson. they are a better squad than Oral Roberts and I like the way these guys are playing.They wont be intimidated by these Terps trusy me when I say that!. I love that so many are hoping on Maryland.....

 

[t3a]

Agree that Davidson is better than Oral, I think this line is suspiciously high.

we'll see....

 

[ProphetablePicks]

disagree on that the line is so high?? what were you expecting it to be? I mean it still is Maryland even though they have had a down year and a team that not many know about.I dont think the line is high at all.

GL

 

[t3a]

More NIT

Texas A&M over St. Joe's - suddenly A&M are beasts on their home court, soft scheduling at the beginning of the year helped, but they have taken care of business with some big conference wins down the stretch too. They just beat a competitive ACC team in Clemson a few days ago, in large part thanks to Clemson's lousy free throw shooting. I think A&M will get a boost tonight from what has to be a somewhat tired St. Joe's team playing their 7th game in less than 2 weeks, which is about 2 or 3 games more in that span than is normal for a college team. The A&M crowd should be wild, as they are enjoying their first postseason success since forever.

Playing A&M -6 for 3 units

 

[t3a]

disagree on that the line is so high?? what were you expecting it to be?

GL

Well based on MD's tendancy to play up or down to their level of competition, I was thinking around minus 7, which was the number they were against Clemson in the ACC tourney in a "must win" spot that they lost by 12.

I hope I am not overanalyzing the line here, MD is a tough team to get a read on their motivation

 

[t3a]

Nice of MD to wake up with that 16-0 run to close the 1st half. They still couldn't put Davidson away til the final 2 minutes, I don't get this team, but it is a win

St. Joe's shoots 33% and wins by 7. So much for being tired.

record in tracker thread, with Vandy pending:

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=264243