This play is questionable, to say the least.
The AFC is -3 vs. NFC. So Minny 11-1 NFC looks about the same as sB 24-1.
But Minny is at best a poor man's no.3 to win the NFC, with a boatload of Company. Minny 15-1 NFC looks about right.
Philly 10.5
Sea 9.5
Rams 9
Bucs 9
Atl 9
GB 9
Minny 9
Skins 8.5
Dallas 8.5
Caro 8.5
The AFC is -3 vs. NFC. So Minny 11-1 NFC looks about the same as sB 24-1.
But Minny is at best a poor man's no.3 to win the NFC, with a boatload of Company. Minny 15-1 NFC looks about right.
Philly 10.5
Sea 9.5
Rams 9
Bucs 9
Atl 9
GB 9
Minny 9
Skins 8.5
Dallas 8.5
Caro 8.5
It brings up the age old points? What is value? Especailly in a future bet. If 99 places have them at +1500, and that last place has them at +2500, or even +2000 is that value? It has more potential value, but they still have to win, or at least put themselves in a position to win.
Also, is comparing them and their odds to other teams with simialr expectations a true barometer of value? Maybe with GB since they are in the same div, but not sure it is with everyone else. And to determine their probability versus that of GB you have to look at their odds just within the div and go from there. I have to assume that Minn is a slight favorite in them in that area, so you have to determine if the values correlate.
Value is always potential value, and until you have several refernce points any potential value is unidentifiable. If I offered the Det Tigers right now at +1 billion, is that value? They are mathematically stil alive I think to make a wild card. So to some that might be value, but realistically it is not. So you have to add that paramater in as well, probabilty of success.
Obviously that also has been a topic the past few years as the eventual Superbowl winners had tremendous preseason odds. So that point can be debated somewhat.
But as some have mentioned look at the NFC odds and then correlate them out, using +145 or so as a factor. If Minn at Skybook is +1655 or close to that to win the NFC, then at +2400 that is almost a perfect predictive correlation. You just have to determine which bet is better to place. Obviously the more wins necessary, the greater the odds needed to make it a "value". So they don't even have to win the SB for you to make the same amount of money, and it is possible to get even greater "value" on them if they are more than a +145 ML dog. Since it is an outdoor SB this year, then it is highly possible that will happen.
Obviuosly this is all speculation, but certain guidleines have to be looked at with futures.
Also, is comparing them and their odds to other teams with simialr expectations a true barometer of value? Maybe with GB since they are in the same div, but not sure it is with everyone else. And to determine their probability versus that of GB you have to look at their odds just within the div and go from there. I have to assume that Minn is a slight favorite in them in that area, so you have to determine if the values correlate.
Value is always potential value, and until you have several refernce points any potential value is unidentifiable. If I offered the Det Tigers right now at +1 billion, is that value? They are mathematically stil alive I think to make a wild card. So to some that might be value, but realistically it is not. So you have to add that paramater in as well, probabilty of success.
Obviously that also has been a topic the past few years as the eventual Superbowl winners had tremendous preseason odds. So that point can be debated somewhat.
But as some have mentioned look at the NFC odds and then correlate them out, using +145 or so as a factor. If Minn at Skybook is +1655 or close to that to win the NFC, then at +2400 that is almost a perfect predictive correlation. You just have to determine which bet is better to place. Obviously the more wins necessary, the greater the odds needed to make it a "value". So they don't even have to win the SB for you to make the same amount of money, and it is possible to get even greater "value" on them if they are more than a +145 ML dog. Since it is an outdoor SB this year, then it is highly possible that will happen.
Obviuosly this is all speculation, but certain guidleines have to be looked at with futures.
best option for something like this is to play it at tradesports or another exchange
When the "value" may be there, but the chance of a win is slim, you can use one of the exchanges and take your profits early, ensuring you don't need them to go all the way to still profit.
Minnesota started off hot last year, and if the same where to happen this year you could sell off early. They don't have a particularly daunting schedule, with the exception of @ Philly in Week 2, where Minny should really be able to exploit the Eagle's secondary. Next worst road bump is Week 6 @ NO and Week 7 Tenn in Minny and then Nov 8 @ Indy. They could very well be 6-1 going into Indy.
When the "value" may be there, but the chance of a win is slim, you can use one of the exchanges and take your profits early, ensuring you don't need them to go all the way to still profit.
Minnesota started off hot last year, and if the same where to happen this year you could sell off early. They don't have a particularly daunting schedule, with the exception of @ Philly in Week 2, where Minny should really be able to exploit the Eagle's secondary. Next worst road bump is Week 6 @ NO and Week 7 Tenn in Minny and then Nov 8 @ Indy. They could very well be 6-1 going into Indy.
