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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Dallas Stars -.5 +114

Everything looks good on this card but unfortunately everything that looks good is at least a buck fifty favorite. I’m so considering the Pens total of 6??? What do they think this is the second All-Star game of the year? But of course that number is still too low for this team as the Islanders will win and win big. So why don’t I take N.Y. -2 goals on Olympic??? Why not parlay the Islanders with the Sabres with the Red Wings with the Avalanche with the over on Pittsburgh????? SHIT everything looks so easy here!!!!

I tell myself to calm down…serenity now…serenity now…breath deep…in with the good air …out with the bad…..Ahhhhhhhh……mmmmmaybe if I round robin the ½ goal with the….STOP!!!!!!!!

After much internal debate and deep breathing exercises I’ve narrowed down my seventeen selections to one. ……And it smells like victory.

Huge game in L.A. that has large playoff implications. Both these teams are battling for the last spot in the western conference with St. Louis and Nashville with a mere two points separating them all.
But to me it comes down to one thing . Dallas is rounding into form after a long season of under achieving while Los Angeles is starting to show the wear of a team that has had over 440 games lost to injuries from a superstar collection of players. They have played hard and you have to give them a world of credit but sooner or later the house of cards will fall.

Dallas has zero injuries. L.A. tonight lists ten players on the I.R. including Jason Allison, Martin Straka, Ziggy Palffy and lost for the season is Adam Deadmarsh.
The Kings are winless in their last four and come back home after a seven game road trip that sandwiched the All-Star break. (First home game in almost three weeks)

Dallas plays their last game of a three game trip in which they have already lost the first two. Before those two loses Dallas was putting things together without a loss in the eight prior. Playing to a tie against Detroit, the Islanders, beating Ottawa, San Jose and the Blues twice. To me losing those two games only sets this game up for a maximum effort by the Stars and a playoff type of atmosphere. This game has great meaning to them and when you look at these two rosters I have to believe that the Stars are simply the better of the two.

So with great restraint I offer this humble selection. It may not be a flashy choice or as exciting as a round robin but to me it’s like the smell of Napalm in the morning …it smells like victory.


NHL single unit plays…………. 58-41-4 + 16.42
Unit and a half plays……………. 5-0-0 + 8.1

NHL total to Date…………….. 63-41-4 + 24.52
 

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I like your analysis but I'm wondering if Turco having the broken foot has any effect on your decision?

I really like SJ +0.5 over NSH
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I really like SJ +0.5 over NSH <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

confidence will be high with SJ after coming off a big win agains Philly on the road...they had a day off...& now will face the lukewarm kings. Good spot...the -133 is very scary to me...dont have my chart handy but I sould guess that laying -133 you would have to win about 58% of your bets or so to break even...

So the question becomes what are the chances that SJ will either win or Tie tonite...if you feel they have a higher than 58% chance of them winnng or tieing...then thie plasy may be valuable

FWIW...I think they do...
 

Ron Mexico. #7
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The Sabres piss me off. You just never know. FLA against Buffalo is the perfect game to get
1036253673.gif
on.


PRJ
 

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vic, kings have 14 ties...tops in the league & Dallas is right up there with 10 ties...

currently at pinnacle the choice offered is:

Wed 2/18 13 Dallas Stars -0.5 +112 -129 OVER 4.5 +113
07:35 PM 14 Los Angeles Kings +0.5 -122 +119 UNDER 4.5 -123

given the nuber of ties these two teams have played so far this year, & that Dallas is on the road...aswell as this is a divisional game & neither team will want to concede a point to the other if it goes into overtime...It costs you 41 cents to buy the 1/2 point essentially...this may be a case where I would argue it might be worth it....as an insurance plan on this play.
 

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otherwise, as usual I fully agree with your DD (Due Diligence).

will likely play the stars myself...any thoughts on which way this line may move?
 

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Here is info about the Turco Injury:

ANAHEIM, Calif. – Stars goalie Marty Turco really does want to play nearly every game.

Even a hairline fracture in his left foot couldn't keep him off the ice.


Turco, who has played in all but two games this season, suffered the minor injury when a shot from defenseman Philippe Boucher hit Turco's foot at the morning skate Jan. 19 in Vancouver. It is common for NHL players to continue to play with fractures, and Turco was no exception.

"It hasn't affected his play at all," coach Dave Tippett said. "It's really a nonfactor. He hasn't missed any practice time because of it."

Turco hasn't limped after games or practices, and when asked why he had a bandage around the foot a few weeks ago, Turco said it was sore.

"It was painful at first, but it doesn't bother me much," Turco said. "I'm just watching it and making sure I take care of it."

Turco is 7-3-2-0 with a 2.15 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage since the injury.

I am sticking with the Stars pick.
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Excellent point savant regarding the tie factor and don’t think I wasn’t with your line of thinking here. But here’s why I decided to forego the insurance.

L.A. has 7 overtime loses in their 14 tries. This simple stat tells me they don’t have the depth , endurance, or team speed to play a 4 on 4 game which to me falls into the Stars advantage. What does concern me a bit is that the Stars seem content to play for the tie with no OT loses and only one OT win out of their ten games. And if that situation arises tonight they could very well be happy with the one point on the road and not want to give up two to their main competition.
When you look at the stats on this game not much screams, bet Dallas, (otherwise I would have screamed them in my post!)
This is solely a feel play for me and based on what I’ve seen in the last couple weeks with both team’s current form. I see two teams going in different directions which this time of the year routinely delivers. The cream rises to the top and although the “top” in this case may only be for 8th place and a playoff berth I feel the Kings are playing with 1% milk.
 

Go Pittsburgh!
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Vegas Vic - Dallas is the play tonight no doubt. I just looked over all the games and this line jumped out at me. Why was Dallas laying the 1/2 puck? I don't need to tell you why they are favored, you explained it very well.

Now, as to the Pens total of 6. Obviously hard to play the under. Penguins bringing up rookie goaltender Chiodo for his first start tonight. I have noticed that when goalies make their debut, teams often tighten up defensively but I really don't think that is possible for the Penguins.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Kings are playing with 1% milk. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

maybe even skim...
lolBIG.gif
 

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Hey guys:

I would be willing to bet that Garth Snow will be in goal tonight for the Islanders. Isles play Rangers tomorrow. Diprieto will probably get the night off. Might be tempted to take over 6.


IS
 

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LOS ANGELES KINGS - *Center Scott Barney (right shoulder), defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky (upper body) and right wing Dustin Brown (ankle) are expected to miss Wednesday's game against Dallas. Centers Jared Aulin (left shoulder), Jason Allison (whiplash) and Martin Straka (knee), right wing Adam Deadmarsh (concussion), and defenseman Aaron Miller (concussion) are sidelined indefinitely. Right wing Zigmund Palffy (dislocated right shoulder) is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

DALLAS STARS - No significant injuries.
 

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