NHL Tuesday

Search

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Boston Bruins PK +130

Toronto gave it their all on Monday night and pulled out a very improbable victory in Buffalo. Trailing by two in the third they came back to tie the game with less than a minute to go and then winning it in O.T. with 1:15 remaining. It was a physically tough and emotional win that lifts them to within one point of division leading Boston. No time for rest or celebration by the Leafs as they must turn around after this taxing win, fly back home, and play their third game in four nights. The Bruins have had two days of rest.

Boston comes into this game rolling, winners of three straight, and with only one loss in their last seven games, (5-1-1). Interestingly enough though is that only loss came against the Leafs, (3-2), at Toronto exactly two weeks ago. A tough close game that was tied in the third but won on a late goal by Mats Sundin.

Boston has quietly put together a dominate defense only allowing 62 goals in their last 32 games dating back to 1/7/04. Since the first of the year they have compiled a 21-8-5 record. They are one of the strongest road teams in the league at 20-12-6 and in fact have a better record away than does Toronto at home, (20-14-2).

My thinking on this game is that the bruising size and strength of the Bruins will be enough of a match for a equally tough crew in the Leafs and who will wear down as the game rolls into the third period. I wonder about Belfour’s health and his effectiveness and I think that Raycroft is the better of the two under the present circumstances. The extra rest by the Bruins and a difficult five game stretch by Toronto where they lost three of those games will be enough of a edge for a outright Bruin victory.




Dallas Stars -.5 -150


The Stars are finally starting to find their stride and it couldn’t be more perfectly timed. Tonight they try to continue their climb up the standings and have a huge game with their division leading San Jose Sharks. Dallas has closed the gap to three points behind the Sharks for the all important division title which brings a automatic top three seed in the west. If they are to get anywhere in the playoffs this is a game they can’t let get away.

San Jose comes into it losing their last three on the road, four of their last five, and five of their last eight, (in which two of those loses were to the Stars). As an away dog on the road the Sharks are a less than ordinary 12-15-4. They have excelled at home but have struggled on the road and there is no tougher place to play than Dallas.

The Stars have a season record of 23-6-7 at home this year and have only allowed 1.89 GAA while scoring 2.86. As a favorite at home they have played equally well at 20-5-5. But this record is deceptive in that the majority of those points have come in their last 14 home games. They are undefeated in that string, dating back nine weeks, with a record of 11-0-3. That 14 game run includes out scoring their opponents 48-20. Four shutouts, (all by Marty Turco),and five games only allowing one goal. Also two of those victories were against these same Sharks by scores of 3-1 and 4-0.

The Stars have beaten the Sharks three of four overall this year and five straight at Dallas dating back to last year. The home ice and recent momentum will be too much for San Jose to contend with. Take this solid favorite to move within one point of securing the Pacific Division title.



NHL single unit plays………86-54-7.…..+ 32.47
Unit and a half plays………..13-5-1.…… + 10.845

NHL total to Date…………...99-59-8.……+ 43.315
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
that Boston does seem attractive, especially considering the average age of the Leafs.
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Ahem....I thought you quit till the playoffs?

icon_wink.gif


Sorry bro I knew you had the salami and wanted a 0-0 finish with Atlanta/Carolina. I did too!
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
vic, I have been very sloppy lately & it has cost me dearly
icon_frown.gif


my assumption was that belfour would be in nets when I was beting uncontrolable last night on the late NBA games & the Under SALAMI,

Sad thing is I didnt even have confirmation...then to boot I come so close but NJ scores in the last 90 secs, then Toronto scores in the last 30 secs & OT....& then of course Atlanta scores the final dagger...

I was having a real good year following (yourself) & some really hot cappers in the NCAAB thread...& I gave it all back in 48 hours....what is even more sick is I know how wrong it is...for FVCK sakes I posted it in your thread the other day...then I did exactly opposite in 1 nite & 1 nite of sickness eat away my entire years profit so far this year....

Anyway, I am honest I I post the truth as I know that most who befall my misfortune are probably too embarssed to post it, however If I can prevent one person from having a wild day & blowing their wad then it would have been worth it...
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Savant,
I had no idea that these games meant that much and if I had I wouldn‘t have made light of it in my sarcastic statement. I do appreciate your honesty. As you said if it saves someone else from committing the same mistake than there can at least be some good to come out of this very dark cloud. But let me assure you that you are not the first or the last.

I have my own horror stories that could fill this forum. But the point is you learn and grow from those mistakes. It forces you to become a better gambler. If not, than the problem goes much deeper than money management skills and those issues need to be desperately addressed. And if you care anything about yourself OR your family than you will seek out help. (and I’m not talking about handicapping services!)

Please don’t be offended by this as I’m not addressing this to you personally but to the general readership. I’ve lost the rent money before, I’ve been in the position where I’ve owed money to the mob and had my man offering to come over and have a “party” at my house unless I came up with it and fast, Hell the first time I ever came to Vegas as a kid I walked to the airport because every dime I came with was gone. I could tell more and I guarantee you that everyone on this site has their own. The only thing that makes you different is your honest.

Gambling can be anything from a pleasant hobby and entertainment to a life threatening disease. Don’t forget where I live or the trade I work in. I’ve seen it all. There is much psychology involved with gambling. Have you ever seen the movie “The Gambler” with James Caan? It’s a bit dated but the message remains clear and relevant today and beyond. If you can’t see a piece of yourself in his destructive character somewhere during that film than you aren’t being honest with yourself and that could be the biggest problem of them all. If you haven’t seen it check it out.

My father gave me advice many years ago and said, “don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose”. Despite this simple advice I managed to do just the opposite for many years. Of all the tens of books I bought and read, hundreds of articles, dealing with every conceivable system or theory regarding gambling the best advice came free from the person I loved the most in my life. If I only had listened.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
thanks for the kind words vic, no offence taken from your thread...& I am not in major Hot water as I have a good job & have set my gambling money aside.....

that being said so far this 2004 I should be up in a major positive way based on % but due to maybe 5 or 6 nights where I lost control I actually find myself down a good chunk so far this year...
icon_frown.gif


It is my own fault however, I break my rules & then next thing you know you are in deep shit....

for me I have roughly a 10K bankroll...now I dont always have it put aside carefully as sometimes I go into it, (recently went to mexico & bought a rock for my fiancee which cost about 10K all in all & set me back)...but I also work full time & I know this is a good threshold for me...

Based on 1%-2% per game this means that my games should be an average of 100$ to 200$ per game....

as soon as I start to break that rule I know I am in trouble, sometimes I find it boring ot bet only 100$ or 200$, but that is becauz I am not looking at it in the long haul...that is where the problem lies...

The other day, after watching the sens play motivated hockey against the Cannucks I decide to through down a nickel on them against the Oilers...Not a big deal in & of itself but it sets off a spiral in terms of things to come...
The feeling that you get when you lose the bet that you went 'out of bounds' with is terrible, 'I Just want it back & it will all be Ok'...I am looking at the board & 'HOLY FVCK" The clippers are at home getting 6.5 against the Mav's...The line had opened up earlier in the day at 3, but since it was the last game of the day the public pounded the other side so we are sitting at 6.5 before gametime...I then see a few people here on the Clippers...When the $$$ is in cyberland it is so easy to pull the trigger so what do I do...750 on the CLippers + 6.5...At the 1/2 they are losing by 10...& the score is quite low for what should be a high scoring game...wtf, another 750 on Clippers over for the 2nd....Wow when all is said & done I have lost 20% of my bankroll on 3 bets...that is when I start to feel sick & look at the next days card...Then what happens...500$ Under Salami....LOSER...4 Bets, 400 750, 750, 500, just like that, months have discipline are erased in 4 fvcking bets.

I am a very honest & upfront person, I post the truth here so that A) it can help others but B) to make me accountable to myself...

Now I have to suck it up & look at things over the long haul...The desire to bang one or two more games is overwhelming, but I know, even if I hit em I am doing myself a diservice in the long run...

It is funny cauz I notice that it seems to take almost 10-15 years before a gambler gets the hang of this business...this is year 13 or so for me & I am still learning...
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,123
Tokens
SS, maybe if you know these "rules" so to speak, and you recognize that you continue to "break them" then maybe you have a problem. Not meant in any way to offend. I hope you don't take it that way, but, these are classic signs. You KNOW you must be disciplined, and you continue to be wreckless, then maybe it's time to hang it up and seek help? Just a thought.

JP
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
JC, angry about the SIA situation eh?

yes I know the rules...yes I fvck them up once in a while...That is why this is a tough game to beat, I imagine your gambling history is flawless without any mistakes? Your money management is sound & you never bet over your head?..lol....funny thing isnt it?....you I guess are just like 98% of people in here...perfect gamblers who win all the time...hilarious!!!
lolBIG.gif


JC, read vic's response above, that is the type of response I would excpect from an adult & yours is the type I would expect from a child. Why? In his response he is man enough to admit that he has made mistakes in the past & it is through the making of mistakes that you learn for the future...Other people have also been very forthcoming in the NBA thread as we have discussed this at lenghth....to date most have shown sound support....All those who are very well respected here, SSI, Oldmanted, Zapster, Hansen, came into my NBA thread & offered a 'been there done that' consolation & put forward their two cents on how to tackle the issue in a constructive fashion....Vic doesnt post in the NBA thread but he did the same here...

You however have to act like a smart alec...you are all worked up over 1K at SIA...& I have seen you have a very aggresive personality before...I still luv ya...but I call a spade a spade & I always will.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,123
Tokens
Ouch. This tells me all I need to know. Never said I was perfect, or that I've employed perfect money management my whole gambling life. But, if you have been doing this for 11 years and know the "rules" so to speak, and are up a tidy profit as you have indicated, and simply HAVE to have the action...there is a problem...plain and simple. I didn't mean to offend you and, you know what they say. Denial is the first sign. I didn't expect you would take my post so offensively.

Time to do some soul searching, I would say.

Good luck with whatever route you choose.

JP
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> But, if you have been doing this for 11 years and know the "rules" so to speak, and are up a tidy profit as you have indicated, and simply HAVE to have the action...there is a problem...plain and simple. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

JC, u know its just takes a few secs...where you lose it, that's all man...most have found this out the hard way...that being said I am back on the horse...lol...PEACE

By the way
toast.gif
on the NETS. Easy Cash.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
vic, this may be premature, but you are starting to scare me...can I get some of that crystal ball action?

seriously though...thanks for helping me get back up...both with your words of wisdom & your plays...

SORRY FVCK. SPOKE TO SOON...........

[This message was edited by SportSavant on March 16, 2004 at 10:54 PM.]
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,765
Tokens
What in the hell happened to Dallas here??? Two goals scored by SJ with less than 1:35 left in the 3rd. Meltdown by the Stars. I thought we had this one.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
I dont know bigames...but some idiot named sportsavant was in here mushing the play before the game was over...
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Yeah that was one tough beat. No way in the world would I believe that the Stars would let them off the mat like that. Simply terrible beat!

Oh well they all even out. I've had more than my share on the winning side.

I'm glad you had the B's and at least that was NOT the bad beat of the evening! Something tells me you're going to go on a long winning streak. And that's what my crystal ball tells me!
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,765
Tokens
That's a good way to look at it Vic. I'm not too upset since Nebraska came back in college BB tonight to beat Creighton.

Then, the Coyotes let one slip by against the Ducks to win on my big play. I made the mistake of thinking the Ducks were still in contention and would fight harder than the 'Yotes. They found a way to win anyway. :O)
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Can't sweat the small stuff, BGO. Bad beats do have a way of evening out. It's just that we tend to remember the ones we are on the wrong side of. When we're on the winning side we're all friggin' geniuses!

Kudos on fading the 'Yotes. Amazing team. I won so much money riding them during Boucher's streak and now they look like they couldn't beat the original Mighty Ducks, of movie fame.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> It's just that we tend to remember the ones we are on the wrong side of. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

coundt have said it better myself...you know about my bad beat with the Salami...

Well in NBA I had Under Lakers team Points 110.5, Under game 206.5, Under Pheonix 188, & Under Washington 201...4 bets in the past 2 days for 1% each.

WEll ALL FOUR WENT INTO FVCKING OT....they would have hit in regulation but lost in ot
icon_mad.gif


that being said, you are absolutely right vic, it is harder to remember the remarkable wins, I remember days when I won three games in OT laying .5...thing is they dont stick in your head as much
icon_confused.gif
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
I know all too well how bad those streaks can go. After awhile you just expect the sky to fall. You don't know how or when but you know it's coming. The only cure for a spell like that is rent a couple movies....take some time off and come back with your guns loaded and blazing!
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,887
Messages
13,574,744
Members
100,882
Latest member
topbettor24
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com