NHL Saturday

[VegasVic]

New Jersey/Carolina Over 4 -130 (Olympic)
[Unit and a half play]


Both these teams played to overtime last night and both played tough draining games. And both teams have to travel to Raleigh for this game. It’s very possible that both Brodeur and Weekes will not be in net for Saturday’s meeting. Matter of fact it’s highly likely they won’t.

Brodeur hasn’t had a night off in three weeks and with the Flyers on deck, the last 14 games of the stretch drive, look for Scott Clemmensen to get a rare start. And Arturs Irbe may get the nod for Carolina. Even if one or both of the #1’s start in net for their respective teams I’ll take my chances on this low number and two very tired teams that will not have enough in the tank to play their usual tight defense.

You can score four goals by accident!


NHL single unit plays………75-53-7.…..+ 21.92
Unit and a half plays………..12-2-1.…… + 15.195

NHL total to Date…………...87-55-8.……+ 37.115

(more tomorrow)

 

[SportSavant]

ive been staring at these numbers at pinny & oly for hours now & this whole time I didn't see that 4, lol....great find, IMHO tremendous value.

 

[VegasVic]

Tampa Bay Lightning -.5 -104


The Lightning come off a very emotional victory last night over the New Jersey Devils and that fact would be my only concern here if it was any team but the Lightning. With some teams that kind of effort and good fortune would leave them flat for the second game in as many nights. But this team has had a season of these type of nights and all they do is go out again and play their hearts out once more. This team rides on that kind of emotion like a wave.

The Florida Panthers are at their crossroads and with a Tuesday trade deadline looming their season, (and any pick ups they might make to help their play off drive), comes down to this one game. If they win this game you could see some scrambling by Panther G.M. Rick Dudley. With a loss…well turn out the lights.
But just because they could be motivated to play with this additional pressure may not be a positive. Not all teams rise to the occasion and in fact some lacking in experience, discipline, and maturity fall like a house of cards. Suddenly they are doing things out of their norm and losing whatever continuity they had. And Florida is one of the youngest teams in the league with a average age of 25.9.

The Lightning who have jelled together for the last five years are simply one of the premier teams of the NHL. Since the third of January they are 22-5-1. The are also road warriors leading the league with 19 wins away from the St. Pete Times Forum. They are 13-2-3 in the last 18 road games and have won four in a row.

In their last 6 games at Florida they stand at 3-2-1 although they have lost the last two. However in the 1/17/04 game they out shot the Panthers 51-15 but Roberto Luongo only allowed one of those 51 to get past him. Olli Jokinen scored both third period goals for Florida in their 2-1 victory.

Don’t look for him to shut down the best offense in the league a second time.

 

[jcambert]

Vic, what are your thoughts on 4.5 +110 on that over? Seems like 40 cents is alot, for half a goal, don't you think? What do you think of the value of that play?

JP

 

[SportSavant]

ill chime in if you dont mind, last night the over 4.5 was available at +20 at Pinny, now it is @ +113....

I personally do not beleive it is alot for a 1/2 goal in this case...3-1 2-2 game is very likely. If you have an out at Oly P{ersonally, I would go with the -130...

 

[jcambert]

It amounts to this. at +110, this play would need to hit 47.6 percent of the time to break even. At -130, it would need to hit 56.5 percent of the time. That's a BIG difference, in my eyes, for half a goal, which is why I asked. Still undecided.

JP

 

[VegasVic]

To me 30 cent, forty cent, fifty is all relative to the added risk of any particular wager.
I believe the value of the lay price decreases with the smaller number on the total.


In this case the difference between the insurance of having a four then risking your bet on a 4 and a half is worth a solid fifty cents.
What would you lay additionaly to have the total at 3 1/2? I'd lay another sixty cents without reservation.

 

[VegasVic]

Look at their records. Do they hit a total of four 57 % of the time and will they hit it here under the conditions that I spelled out in my analysis? Don’t get too tied up in the numbers and look at how you think this game will play out.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Don’t get too tied up in the numbers and look at how you think this game will play out. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I hear you vic, however for me it is a combination of both, I dont think I have as strong a knowledge of the game or sound an eye for it as you? So for me, I will often try to exploit the mathematics of it & find it can be reasonably succesful...take a look at my card for tonite & ull C what I mean...

 

[VegasVic]

I agree 100% with the combination of math and forecasting as being a winning recipe. But even if we used nothing but math on that Jersey/Carolina total you’ll find that these two have hit four goals or more in excess of 57%. So even if we used nothing more than a analytical eyesight on this play you’d have to agree that there was value in the number of 4 -130.

 

[SportSavant]

fully agree with you in relation to the total in that game tonite, I was simply talking in general...

there does come a point however, you have to agree where the over 4.5 becomes more attractive & is a better bet in the long long haul...I dont know at what point, perhaps if we had seen over 4.5 +140 may have been more attractive than over 4 -130, I dont know, just throwing out ideas here...perhaps the 4.5 +140 would simply be a no play?

anyway now I am rambling on....Prusek looking AMAZING for ottawa tonite so far (touch wood).

 

[SportSavant]

wow