NHL Picks, Sat 02/15. This season: + $12567 (288-243-50)

[Mathemagician]

Today’s investments:

Nashville -0.5 +110 / estimate -103 / wager $300
Phoenix 0.5 +160 / estimate +118 / wager $300
Buffalo ML +105 / estimate -189 / wager $300
Carolina 0.5 +175 / estimate +156 / wager $300
NY Islanders ML +113 / estimate -111 / wager $300
Col - Min Under 5 -135 / estimate -169 / wager $100
NJ - Pit Under 5 +100 / estimate -133 / wager $100
Buf - NYR Under 5.5 -130 / estimate -167 / wager $100
Phi - Car Under 5 -139 / estimate -196 / wager $100

Click here for Mathemagician’s detailed track record and more information for NHL 2002-2003

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Mathemagician’s analysis is based on many years experience of odds making in NHL and other sports. Methods used in odds making process include careful pre-season analysis, continuous measuring of each teams abilities using power ratings and considering the daily news in each individual game.

The pre-season analysis includes mathematical and statistical analysis and determination of the changes caused by the transactions. The power rating database is always updated after each game and every published estimate is adjusted to consider injuries, fatigue caused by the schedule, different motivations and many other factors.

The pick is profitable in the long run only if the current price is higher than the estimate. Otherwise the bet is not worth placing.

 

[alwayswins]

You caught my interest when you began discussing the Kelly Criterion. I had not heard of it but I thought I'd research it. I have more reading to do but the mathematics is fairly simplistic and built on some very important assumptions that I have to examine a little more closely (positive expectation for example). As long as we are in an area that might lead to profitability I thought I'd take a closer look at what you're doing. I thought that I might follow you and see where it goes. I'm not sure I understand the numbers that you list for each game, particularly what you call 'estimate'.
When you list a game with a line - for example NJ-Pit < 5 +100. I looked for at least that number. Three offshore books had
<5 -120
<5 -115
<5 -120

Nashville - 1/2 +110
I saw
P -130
P -130
-1/2 + 105

Buf-NYR under 5.5 -130
I saw
<5 +115 at all 3 sportsbooks.

I would like to give you a try, but I can't find what I think are the numbers. Do you have a suggestion?

 

[Mathemagician]

Here is a short explanation for our numbers.

Let's use the Nashville pick as an example:

Nashville -0.5 +110 / estimate -103 / wager $300

The number +110 is the price we were able to find from a certain offshore bookmaker (mostly Pinnacle, Olympic and Canbet are used). The lines we use are usually the early lines from these bookmakers, so if you make your bets much later you might not find prices that good anymore. But if you can find +105, it could still be worth to bet on.

The estimate -103 is what we think would be the fair price based on our analysis. In other words, if we were to make the betting lines, we would put out a line of -½ -103 for Nashville (reducing the house edge first of course, so the real line we would post would be something like -110).

And this estimate should be used to determine if there is value in the price you can find from a bookmaker. You should not bet Nashville if all you can get is -105 since it's worse than -103. If you got even money odds for Nashville you could make a bet, but we would recommend using slightly higher margin (maybe 10 cents or even more) before placing a bet.