NHL Notes for Saturday, Nov 29

[artiesliver]

Chicago @ Los Angeles 4pm EST

Probable Goaltenders according to Chicago Tribune
Hawks, C. Huet : 3-4-2, 2.84
Kings, Erik Ersberg: 5-4-2, 2.32

The last 8 backend of B2Bs for Chicago all went Over.

Chicago is 2-2 when visiting Pacific Division opponents this season, beating DAL and PHX, losing by a goal to SJS and ANA.

Cristobal Huet is 1-4 on the road this season.
Erik Ersberg is 4-4 at home this season.

 

[artiesliver]

Detroit @ Boston 7pm EST

Detroit has won 4 of their last 5 backend of B2B's.

In Boston's last 20 backends of B2B's, the O/U is 5-15.

Look for Tim Thomas to start in net tonight for the B's (Manny Fernandez started yesterday against the Isles). Thomas is 3-2 at home this season, with the O/U going 4-1 (last 4 all Over).

 

[artiesliver]

Chicago @ Los Angeles 4pm EST

Probable Goaltenders according to Chicago Tribune
Hawks, C. Huet : 3-4-2, 2.84
Kings, Erik Ersberg: 5-4-2, 2.32

The last 8 backend of B2Bs for Chicago all went Over.

Chicago is 2-2 when visiting Pacific Division opponents this season, beating DAL and PHX, losing by a goal to SJS and ANA.

Cristobal Huet is 1-4 on the road this season.
Erik Ersberg is 4-4 at home this season.

Chicago's last 6 games played on Saturday have gone Over.
The Kings are 5-15 in their last 20 played on Saturday, w/the O/U going 14-5-1.

 

[artiesliver]

Detroit @ Boston 7pm EST

Detroit has won 4 of their last 5 backend of B2B's.

In Boston's last 20 backends of B2B's, the O/U is 5-15.

Look for Tim Thomas to start in net tonight for the B's (Manny Fernandez started yesterday against the Isles). Thomas is 3-2 at home this season, with the O/U going 4-1 (last 4 all Over).

Detroit has won their last 7 games, and 11 of their last 12, played on Saturday. Detroit's last 20 games on Saturday have an O/U of 7-13. Wings have won their last 5 Saturday games on the road.

Boston has won 5 of their last 6 Saturday games. The B's have won 8 of their last 9 Saturday games at home.

 

[artiesliver]

Philadelphia @ Toronto 7pm EST

Philadelphia is 5-1 in their last 6 backends of B2B's.

Philly has won 6 of their last 8 road games. 5 of Philly's last 6 road games have gone Under.

Toronto is 3-8 at home this season. The O/U is 7-4 in the Leafs' 11 home games this season, including 5 of the last 6.

Toronto is 3-2 at home this season on Saturday, with the O/U at 4-1. Overall on Saturdays, the Leafs are 3-4 and the O/U is 5-2.

The Flyers are 3-3 on Saturdays this season, with the O/U at 3-3.

 

[artiesliver]

Detroit has won their last 7 games, and 11 of their last 12, played on Saturday. Detroit's last 20 games on Saturday have an O/U of 7-13. Wings have won their last 5 Saturday games on the road.

Boston has won 5 of their last 6 Saturday games. The B's have won 8 of their last 9 Saturday games at home.

Goaliepost reporting Conklin in net tonight for the Wings.

 

[artiesliver]

Buffalo @ Montreal 7pm EST

The Sabres have lost their last 5 backends of B2B's, are 3-7 in their last 10 backends.

BUF has lost 5 of their last 6 in Montreal, the last 3 of which went Under. The O/U/P is 5-12-3 in Buffalo's last 20 at Montreal.

Buffalo has lost 8 of their last 10 on the road on Saturday, including losing their last 4 in this situation. 4 of their last 5 in this situation have gone Under.

 

[artiesliver]

Buffalo @ Montreal 7pm EST

The Sabres have lost their last 5 backends of B2B's, are 3-7 in their last 10 backends.

BUF has lost 5 of their last 6 in Montreal, the last 3 of which went Under. The O/U/P is 5-12-3 in Buffalo's last 20 at Montreal.

Buffalo has lost 8 of their last 10 on the road on Saturday, including losing their last 4 in this situation. 4 of their last 5 in this situation have gone Under.

Buffalo is 3-7 in their last 10 played on Saturday.

The Canadiens have lost their last 3 played at home on Saturday, and 5 of last 6 in this situation. In their last 20 played at home on Saturday, the O/U/P is 6-13-1.

Overall on Saturdays, the Habs are 3-7 in their last 10 Sat. games, w/the O/U going 7-3.

Carey Price probable netminder tonight (according to goaliepost.com). Price is 4-3 at home this season.

The Habs are 2-4 in their last 6 backends of B2Bs.

Sabres are 6-4 in their last 10 against Divisional foes.

 

[artiesliver]

Ottawa @ New York Islanders, 7pm

Coming off a drubbing by the Bruins yesterday--In their last 10 backends of a B2B, the Isles are 7-3, including winning their last 5 and 7 of last 8 in this situation. In their last 20 backends, the Isles are 13-7.

The Isles have won 4 of their last 5 against Northeast division opponents.

The Senators are 13-4-3 in their last 20 against the Isles on Long Island. The Sens are 13-6-1 in their last 20 against the Isles overall. However, the Isles have won 4 of their last 6 matchups.

The Sens O/U/P this season is 5-15-1. The Isles O/U/P is 13-8-1.

Alex Auld probable starter for the Sens tonight (according to goaliepost). I'm guessing McDonald will start for the Isles despite yesterday's debacle against the Bruins.

The O/U/P in the last 12 Sens games is 0-11-1.

The Sens have lost 8 of their last 9 games played on Saturday. The Sens have lost 6 of their last 8 played on the road on Saturday.

 

[artiesliver]

Ottawa @ New York Islanders, 7pm

Coming off a drubbing by the Bruins yesterday--In their last 10 backends of a B2B, the Isles are 7-3, including winning their last 5 and 7 of last 8 in this situation. In their last 20 backends, the Isles are 13-7.

The Isles have won 4 of their last 5 against Northeast division opponents.

The Senators are 13-4-3 in their last 20 against the Isles on Long Island. The Sens are 13-6-1 in their last 20 against the Isles overall. However, the Isles have won 4 of their last 6 matchups.

The Sens O/U/P this season is 5-15-1. The Isles O/U/P is 13-8-1.

Alex Auld probable starter for the Sens tonight (according to goaliepost). I'm guessing McDonald will start for the Isles despite yesterday's debacle against the Bruins.

The O/U/P in the last 12 Sens games is 0-11-1.

The Sens have lost 8 of their last 9 games played on Saturday. The Sens have lost 6 of their last 8 played on the road on Saturday.

The Isles have lost 5 of their last 7 games played at home on Saturday, 5 of last 6 in this situation have gone Over. The Isles are 6-14 in their last 20 Saturday games overall. However, they have won their last 2 Saturday games. 6 of the last 8 games the Isles have played on Saturday have gone Over. This season the Isles are 3-4 on Saturday.

Last 5 games for Isles have gone Over.

 

[artiesliver]

Washington @ Columbus, 7pm

Caps have lost 6 of last 7 backend of B2Bs. Last 3 backends for Caps have gone Over.

BlueJackets are 5-15 in last 20 game 2's of B2Bs, including losing 8 of last 9 backends. The O/U/P is 6-13-1 in those 20 games, including 8 of last 10 in this situation going Under.

Caps have won 4 of last 5 against Central Division opponents. The O/U/P is 15-3-2 in Caps' last 20 games against Central Division, including 11 of last 13 going Over.

BJs have won 5 of last 7 matchups against Southeast Division opponents.

WSH is 4-1 against CBJ in Columbus, with the Over hitting last 4 times.

WSH has lost 5 of last 7 on the road played on Saturday.

CBJ has lost 9 of last 12 played on Saturday. Last 3 Saturday games for the BJs have gone Under. Of BJs last 20 Saturday games, the Under has hit 15 times (4-15-1). 10 of last 12 BJ games at home on Saturday have gone Under. BJs have lost 3 of last 4 at home on Saturday.

CBJ has lost 4 of last 5 games, with only win coming against ATL.

O/U/P for CBJ is 13-7-1 this season, while it is 14-7-1 for WSH.

Caps are 6-2 following a win of 2 goals or more this season. Blue Jackets are 6-2 after allowing 4 or more goals this season.

Over has hit in 8 of Caps' last 10 games. Over is 9-4 for Caps on the road this season. Caps have lost 6 of last 8 they played on the road. Last 6 Caps' games on the road have gone Over.

BJs have lost last 3 at home.

 

[dirtymoose]

good afternoon Artie! Lets get some today.

just taking a quick look at the card today, seems like a tough one.

i see 3 games i might like
you Islanders, i don't know if i can bet them tho. It just would not be right for a rangers fan to bet them!
Montreal
SJS

How are the sharks is the ladder end of a B2B?

 

[artiesliver]

New Jersey @ Pittsburgh, 7:30pm

Only the 2nd B2B for PIT this season. They are 0-1 in game 2 of B2Bs this season. Last 20 backends of B2B's for Pens, they are 7-13, with the O/U/P at 7-10-3 (last 4 going Under).

Pens have lost 8 of last 10 to the Devils when playing in Pittsburgh, 4-16 in last 20 played in PIT between these two teams. NJD won previous game in PIT this season by a score of 2-1.

After winning 5 straight at home, the PENS have dropped their last 2 games in PIT. Pens are 2-2 at home on Saturday this season, and 5-3 on Saturdays overall this season.

NJD have won last 5 games. Devils are 5-4 this season on the road and are 2-2 this season on the road when playing on Saturday.

Sabourin is 1-2 at home this season. Clemmensen is 2-1 on the road this season. (Probable goaltenders as posted by goaliepost.com).

 

[artiesliver]

good afternoon Artie! Lets get some today.

just taking a quick look at the card today, seems like a tough one.

i see 3 games i might like
you Islanders, i don't know if i can bet them tho. It just would not be right for a rangers fan to bet them!
Montreal
SJS

How are the sharks is the ladder end of a B2B?

What's up DM? Let's bang the bookies today.

Sharks are 14-6 in the latter end of their last 20 B2Bs, including winning 6 of their last 7 game 2's (only lost 4-2 to Phoenix, the same team they are playing tonight).

The Coyotes are also in a B2B tonight. In their last 5 latter halfs of B2Bs, the Yotes are 3-2. 10-10 in last 20 game 2's of B2Bs. More importantly, the O/U is 14-6 in last 20 game 2's of B2Bs for Yotes, including 6 of last 7 backends going Over (although Bryzgalov only played in 3 of them).

I'm really liking the Devils tonight. Only play that has jumped out at me so far.

 

[artiesliver]

DM--BTW, try not to get too caught up in the past numbers like I do. It is a weakness of mine (although I love going back and researching them) that often causes me to play more games than I should or go against my initial instinct. Sometimes simple is better, play the better team when the lines are decent.

 

[artiesliver]

San Jose @ Phoenix, 9pm EST

Since I already started # crunching this game for Dirty Moose, I figured I would continue w/this one.

Sharks are 14-6 in the latter end of their last 20 B2Bs, including winning 6 of their last 7 game 2's (only loss was 4-2 to Phoenix, the same team they are playing tonight).

The Coyotes are also in a B2B tonight. In their last 5 latter halfs of B2Bs, the Yotes are 3-2. 10-10 in last 20 game 2's of B2Bs. More importantly, the O/U is 14-6 in last 20 game 2's of B2Bs for Yotes, including 6 of last 7 backends going Over (although Bryzgalov only played in 3 of them).

San Jose has lost their last 3 games in the AZ desert by the following scores: 5-3, 5-4, 4-2. All 3 went Over.

Goaliepost.com saying Boucher for the Sharks, Bryzgalov for the Yotes. Since joining PHX last season, Bryzgalov is 3-1 against the Sharks in PHX, w/a 2.50 GAA. Boucher is 1-5 lifetime in Phoenix against the Coyotes, w/a 4.83 GAA.

Going back to last season, San Jose has won their last 4 Saturday night games on the road. So far this season, PHX is 2-3 at home on Saturdays (5-15 in last 20 at home on Sat.).

Sharks have won 11 of last 12 Saturday games they've played, including 8 in a row and all 5 games this season.

This season, the Coyotes are 2-5 on Saturday, w/the Under hitting 5 times. They have also lost 11 of their last 14 Saturday games and 14 of last 20 (O/U/P is 6-11-3 in those 20).

 

[artiesliver]

San Jose @ Phoenix, Part II

San Jose is 7-0 this season when the total is 5.5

Phoenix is 2-6 this season against teams w/a winning record.

Boucher has a 1.80 GAA in his 5 road games this season. If Nabokov starts for the Sharks, he has a 3,80 GAA in his 5 road games this season. Bryzgalov has a 1.85 GAA in his 7 starts at home this season.

After losing 6 in a row, the Yotes have won 2 straight. The Sharks are a NHL leading 19-4, winning 6 in a row and 13 of their last 15. Sharks are outshooting their opponents by an average of 37-25 this season.

 

[barman]

DM--BTW, try not to get too caught up in the past numbers like I do. It is a weakness of mine (although I love going back and researching them) that often causes me to play more games than I should or go against my initial instinct. Sometimes simple is better, play the better team when the lines are decent.

It's certainly pertinent, depending of course on which "past numbers" we are giving the most value.

The "record on Saturdays" style result is likely the most cheesy of which I can think of, but other roles you've described above carry various levels of true causative as well as correlary value.

 

[artiesliver]

Edmonton @ St. Louis, 2pm

I show this game to be relatively even, a game between two bad teams. Perhaps the recent trade w/the Leafs gives the Blues some spark???

Goaliepost now has Roloson in net for the Oilers and Legace for the Blues (according to CHED Radio 630am).

Both teams in a front-end of a B2B.

Blues playing their first game at home after a 3 game road stint.

Manny Legace is 4-2 at home this season, with the Over hitting 4 out of 6 times.

Dwayne Roloson is 3-3 on the road this season, O/U is 3-3.

Edmonton has lost 5 of their last 6 games. St. Louis has won 4 of their last 6 games.

Roloson has won his last 3 Saturday starts on the road (only 1 this season). His last 20 starts on the road have an O/U/P of 5-12-3. Legace has lost 8 of his last 10 Saturday starts, with the Over hitting in 7 of those 10 games.

The Oilers have won 3 of their last 4 Saturday games on the road and 5 of their last 7 played on Saturday (home & away).

The Blues have won 3 of their last 4 Saturday games at home, including 2 of 3 this season. The Blues are 3-3 on Saturdays this season with the Over hitting 4 of 6.

St. Louis has lost 12 of their last 14 games against Northwest Division opponents. Edmonton is 1-5 against Central Division opponents this season.

 

[artiesliver]

It's certainly pertinent, depending of course on which "past numbers" we are giving the most value.

The "record on Saturdays" style result is likely the most cheesy of which I can think of, but other roles you've described above carry various levels of true causative as well as correlary value.

The Saturday record does seem cheesy, but my logic is that certain days may have more significance than others. Saturday being HNIC has significance to the Canadian players (growing up knowing that Saturday night is Hockey Night). Playing on a Friday night can potentially influence a team if the players are anxious to go out and enjoy the local Gentlemen's Clubs. Sunday can also potentially influence a team if they spent the weekend at home with the family or were on the road w/their lady friends.

Actually, the team stats w/the highest correlation to winning percentage are (and some are obvious):

Goals For (no shit!): Correlation coefficient R=0.715
Goals Against (really?? would've never guessed): R= -0.597
5 on 5 GF/GA (this one is interesting): 0.683

PP% and Shots On Goal/Game also have correlation coefficients above 0.5 but I don't give them the same weighting as the other 3 when I am capping (maybe that's my problem).