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Detroit/Edmonton Over 5 -136 (Pinnacle)

In the last six meetings between these two the final number for goals scored have been …3, 8, 8, 8, 7, and 9.
Do you see a trend here?

In the Red Wings away games this year they have averaged 5.83 scores. They have gone over the total in six of their last nine, (6-2-1).
Edmonton averages 5.39 total goals at home this year.

Lastly my choice of this game was made due to the fact that Pinnacle is offering it at 5 where everyone else seems to be more appropriately adding the hook. I can see no way this game falls at four or under. Lay the juice and get the number.


Florida/Boston Under 5 -110

Bucking a trend here and for a change I’ll take a under play. Two reasons why…
Andrew Raycroft and Roberto Luongo.

Both of these net minders are capable of shutting down a high powered offense and carry a team on their back.
They have squared off four times in their short careers. Last year at Florida Luongo shut out Boston 3-0.
This year Raycroft/Luongo faced off twice in Florida. Both battles ended in a 1-1 deadlock. And the lone game at the Fleet center a month ago produced similar results, a 2-1 Panther victory.

Luongo has been consistent in his last 7 games only allowing 11 goals and rounding into one of those patented hot streaks. Only one of those games went over the total and that was because Florida’s offense had a larger than usual offensive explosion of 5 goals against the lowly Penguins.

Raycroft has been in a groove all year long with a sub 2.00 GAA. Despite his rookie status he plays with ice water in his veins and makes the hard plays look easy. He is a large reason why the Bruins have a very realistic shot at making the Stanley Cup finals.

In the last ten meetings the under has been the winner seven times.

This is the first game at home for the Bruins after a seven game 18 day road trip.

Sergei Samsonov had his injured ribs cause him more pain in the game at Carolina on Saturday and is having a MRI done today but regardless of the results it is doubtful he’ll see action.



Tampa Bay Lightning -.5 -120


At first glance you must wonder about this game. Here’s Washington who has traded away and down sized their roster and have only played better because of it. With only one loss in their last six games they have been led by Olaf Kolzig who has allowed 7 goals in his last five games.

Tampa Bay ran into a bump on their road to the playoffs. After going 10-1-1 they lost back to back 4-3 overtime games to Buffalo and St.Louis. They come into this game looking to get back on the right path.

There is little comparison between these two squads and if it wasn’t for the stellar play of Kolzig and the recent records that I mentioned above this line wouldn’t be close to the value it is. Tampa Bay has beaten the Caps 4 out of the last 5 at Washington. And all four wins were against Kolzig.
In the last meeting there, (against Kolzig), the Bolts had a convincing win 5-2. As hot as Olie the goalie is Tampa Bay has had little trouble solving him.

As a home dog Washington has struggled going 2-8-3. And they are 5 games under .500 at home on the year. With their recent loses of Jagr and Bondra and the rumor mill having several other players being moved, (including Kolzig) I have a hard time believing the recent addition by subtraction they have been experiencing will continue. Tampa Bay has far too many weapons and too much to play for not to win this game out right. The price is right, the location is right, and the time is right.


Nashville Predators PK +107


The 23rd of February and the playoffs start here.
The Predators have never made the post season in their existence but the acquisition of Scott Sullivan, (5 goals in 3 games), is the last piece they will need to do so this year. They come into this game looking for a sweep of a three game road trip, where they have not done well until recent performance. Already beating Anaheim 3-2 and destroying Phoenix 8-2 they should not be challenged by the Kings. A team that has played their hearts out but the long season of numerous injuries are finally taking their toll. I’m not sure I’d have time to recap all the stars this team has lost but safe to say it’s a lengthy list and the most recent could be the final straw to break their back. Roman Cechmanek is the latest leaving the challenge of defending the King’s slim playoff hopes to Cristobal Huet and his 5-7-8 record, 2.63 GAA.

The Kings have lost four of their last six, (winning only once) and the Predators losing only once in their last six, (4-1-1).
After a very brief five game slump net minder Tomas Vokoun has rebounded well back to the form that made him a Nashville representative at this season’s All-Star game. Allowing thirteen goals in his last five starts he has helped lead the Predators to a three game winning streak, (3-1-1).

Lastly a word of warning. In the last ten head to head match ups between these two the Kings hold a convincing 7-1-2 record. But the one Predator victory came in L.A., Cechmanek was the goalie in all three meetings this year, (2-0-1), and Nashville has never been stronger than they are today while the Kings have never been weaker.

I predicted a few days ago that both St. Louis and Los Angeles would be bumped from the playoff race in the west and after the Blues pathetic performance in Chicago on Sunday you can scratch them from the contending list. Next to fall……the King is dead.



NHL single unit plays………64-45-4 + 18.47
Unit and a half plays…………5-2-1 +4.65

NHL total to Date……………..69-47-5 +23.12
 

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I like those picks.

TB makes me nervous though with how well Kolzig's been playing. I can see a tie.

baba.gif
 

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vic, nice call on the red wings over...as they say 'you snooze you lose' I hesitated last nite & now pinny has adusted their long...

I am pretty sure we will be in agreement on Tampa...I am sitting at 500 on my RX plays so I want to be more selective from here on out to assure myself a winning record in RX posted plays....

Get this, due to the fact that there was low vig, & 3 4.5's I decided to play the board over last nite looking for 3 of 5...Well I went 1-3-1
icon_frown.gif
....What is worse...The Grand Salami actually went over due to Ottawa & the fact that all my games had 4 goals...
chainsaw.gif
 

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Also, Marc Lamothe will be in nets for the Red Wings tonight. This is a strong play I think.

VegasVic, nice job thus far. Your writeups are about as good as could be expected from a forum. You should be writing for ESPN.
icon_smile.gif


sharp
 

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Sharp:

Where did you find out that Lamonthe will be in net tonight?

IS
 

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I live in Canada. We're privy to all sorts of hockey information. I also know that Talquist will be starting for Toronto tonight, and Lalime will be in goal tomorrow for the Sens.

sharp

off topic: just bought ken burns' documentery 'baseball' ten dvd's, 25 hours of the history of baseball. drooool.
 

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Savant:
Sorry to hear about the your over record from last night. I did play the Salami and was very fortunate to get the over, (as well know).

I was going to go for the middle and take under on the Col/Minn game at 4.5 +105. I had over 25 and -105 on the GS and needed only three goals for a push going into the last game between Col/Minn. The four would have given me a middle but I didn’t pull the trigger. So what happens……
There’s four goals in the books, Colorado is up by two, and with a minute and a half left coach Jacques Lemaire doesn’t pull Roloson. ????? Makes little sense to me as what do you have to lose? If you’ve scored a total of one goal all game long what makes you think you’ll score two in a minute and a half doing the same thing you’ve done for the previous 58 minutes? Time to pull out the stops pal. (or Roloson in this case)

I didn’t have a penny bet on whether the fifth goal was scored or not but I sure rooted for one as if I had!


Sharp:
Thanks for the kind words and inside info on the goaltender assignments. Actually I would be more comfortable with Legace in there as so often when you get some new kid in the nets the team behind him plays stronger defense and the opposition needs to figure him out until they can get a book on him. A lot of times it all equates to a lower scoring game.

Welcome to the forum and keep the insights coming.
 

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PS that Ken Burns 25 hour baseball deal sounds wonderful. Is it the same series that was run on PBS by him? If so it’s a great piece and something every true fane should see at least once.

Actually all his stuff is great. He had a good one on the history and evolution of Jazz and that fantastic series on the Civil War. Enjoy it bro!
 

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It's the same Ken Burns who did all those series for PBS. The baseball one has amazing insight from Buck Oneil (who is unbelievably intelligent and charismatic), Bob Costas (enough said), etc. I remember PBS ran it once 25 hours straight, and I couldn't stop watching it. I had an exam at 8am, and ended up staying up all night watching.

Vic, I assume that you will be handicapping baseball this year? I sure hope so anyhow.

GL to all.

sharp
 

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Keep up the AWESOME work, Vic. You are definately what I would consider a sharpie/wiseguy when it comes to the NHL. Do you play any other sports? And, if so, are you as profitable?

JP
 

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Hey JP
My forte is baseball and hockey but I had a great year on football this last year as well so maybe it's just a long lucky streak I'm going through.

GL
 

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Or maybe you are just a damned good capper. LOL. How well did you do in football this past year? What was your record? And, how well do you normally do in baseball and hockey, on an average season, in terms of net units?

Thanks,
JP
 

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It all varies JP. But the only consistent is I seem to get better with age.
I ended up 24 + units in football and without going over my records was in the forty unit range in baseball. And with a win pct. around 60 (or a bit less).
 

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That is impressive. If you can consistently make a profit of 80 plus units per year, you could probably do this professionally. Do you do this for a living?
JP
 

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JP I had a very good and lucky year. I do this for fun. The day I try to make a living out of it will be the day it becomes a job (and work).

Being a professional gambler is a very tough grind and does not give me a good medical plan, paid vacations, sick days, double time on holidays, etc.

I've gambled on sports my entire life and I'm not a young guy anymore. I know all too well how fleating good fortune can be. I have a great job that I enjoy tremendously and one that gives me many luxuries. Like giving me the money to bet on sports without sweating the outcome.

One truth that I discovered the hard way many years ago is once you start betting hard money or money you need to pay the rent you might as well pack it in. Nothing spells failure as quick. At least I found that's my truth.

GL
Vic
 

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