When I first wondered what kind of totals the oddsmakers would hang on these 20 minute 3 on 3 games a month ago I thought 9 or 10 was logical. One goal every other minute should be about the pace in my eyes. So Pinnacle opens it at 9, then it goes to 10 within 3 minutes, then 11.5 ten minutes later, by the end of the day it stood at 13.5 and lots of juice on the over. As of this morning it stands at 14.5. What a great middle opportunity for those who got down early.
However in my mind the majority of bettors who continue to hammer the inflated overs have it wrong. The oddsmakers, (and myself almost one month ago), had it right from the beginning. Despite this being a exhibition with zero defense being played I have a hard time envisioning a goal a minute being scored and basically needing 15 goals to cash the over is what the pace needs to be. Surely these goaltenders will make a save to two. Surely the teams may be a bit more defense over previous all-star games with the $1,000,000 incentive to the winning division. This means nearly $100,000 to each individual player.
It’s hard to compare the regular season OT periods to what this game will be like but I will attempt to anyway. So far this year we’ve seen 171 games tied after regulation. Only 64% have had a goal scored in 5 minutes of OT, (109 decided in OT, 62 in a SO). Zero goals in five minutes of 3 on 3, (excluding the occasions where a penalty is called), or 36% of the time tells me it’s not so easy to light the lamp even with all that open ice. Certainly not at a goal a minute pace. Additionally OT games have seen an increasing percentage decided in a SO lately. Teams have begun to play a more conservative style than what was exhibited early in the year. Since 1/16 fourteen games have gone to OT and nine have gone to the SO. Teams have learned, adjusted, and play more defense just like the first 60 minutes. Why can’t they take those strategies and use them here?
No doubt in my mind many bettors that got in early will buy back on these inflated numbers looking for middles. But that may not happen till tomorrow as they watch these lines grow and juice shrink. 5dimes is hanging 15.5 on both of the game totals. They are begging for people to take the over by offering a plus price. I’ll gladly lay the heavy juice now and take this ridiculous number. I may miss some value and perhaps the vig will lower but three weeks ago I put the number at 10. Why on earth wouldn’t I take 15.5?
Metro/Atlantic Under 15.5 -160
Pacific/Central Under 15.5 -175
However in my mind the majority of bettors who continue to hammer the inflated overs have it wrong. The oddsmakers, (and myself almost one month ago), had it right from the beginning. Despite this being a exhibition with zero defense being played I have a hard time envisioning a goal a minute being scored and basically needing 15 goals to cash the over is what the pace needs to be. Surely these goaltenders will make a save to two. Surely the teams may be a bit more defense over previous all-star games with the $1,000,000 incentive to the winning division. This means nearly $100,000 to each individual player.
It’s hard to compare the regular season OT periods to what this game will be like but I will attempt to anyway. So far this year we’ve seen 171 games tied after regulation. Only 64% have had a goal scored in 5 minutes of OT, (109 decided in OT, 62 in a SO). Zero goals in five minutes of 3 on 3, (excluding the occasions where a penalty is called), or 36% of the time tells me it’s not so easy to light the lamp even with all that open ice. Certainly not at a goal a minute pace. Additionally OT games have seen an increasing percentage decided in a SO lately. Teams have begun to play a more conservative style than what was exhibited early in the year. Since 1/16 fourteen games have gone to OT and nine have gone to the SO. Teams have learned, adjusted, and play more defense just like the first 60 minutes. Why can’t they take those strategies and use them here?
No doubt in my mind many bettors that got in early will buy back on these inflated numbers looking for middles. But that may not happen till tomorrow as they watch these lines grow and juice shrink. 5dimes is hanging 15.5 on both of the game totals. They are begging for people to take the over by offering a plus price. I’ll gladly lay the heavy juice now and take this ridiculous number. I may miss some value and perhaps the vig will lower but three weeks ago I put the number at 10. Why on earth wouldn’t I take 15.5?
Metro/Atlantic Under 15.5 -160
Pacific/Central Under 15.5 -175
