Broncos +2.5
Tonight’s line shows you how unforgiving and negative the market has been on the Broncos this year, as they come off their first loss last week, and are now home underdogs. Lets not forget this team has played 5 teams with a winning record this year, has covered all but one spread, won all but one game, and has yet to lose at home. The Steelers are starting play better, but the market has put a premium on the asking price all year. Here is a team that is 5-2, yet is just 2-5 ATS (should be 1-6 ATS). I continue to think that their defense is nowhere near as good as the one they have brought to the table in recent years. They are not as dominant against both the run and the pass, which bodes well for a well balanced Broncos offensive attack. The Steelers defense also thrives on the blitz and creating mistakes. The Broncos offense is conservative, chips away at the field and takes what is given. This should offset the blitz. Orton has been highly efficient and has not forced anything. He has thrown just one interception all season. This should decrease the chances of the Steelers creating turnovers. The Steelers are also battling some key defensive injuries.
The Broncos defense may not be able to continue at their current rate, but they still are playing at a high level. Their line, linebackers and secondary all seem to be gelling despite not much work time together. From this standpoint, one would assume that they still may have some upside. The Steelers lack the running game to offset the Broncos pass rush and blitzing capability. In fact, I expect the Broncos to be able to shut down the Steelers run game. The Steelers pass protection is suspect and struggle against blitz pick up. Expect this to be a problem if in fact the Steelers can not establish a running game. The Broncos seem to step it up at home, while the Steelers have not looked as good this year on the road compared to recent years, winning just one out of three games, and their one win being an unimpressive one against the Lions.
Until the Broncos establish a longer downward trend, I think the market is premature in their downgrade. They have been wrong about them all year.
Tonight’s line shows you how unforgiving and negative the market has been on the Broncos this year, as they come off their first loss last week, and are now home underdogs. Lets not forget this team has played 5 teams with a winning record this year, has covered all but one spread, won all but one game, and has yet to lose at home. The Steelers are starting play better, but the market has put a premium on the asking price all year. Here is a team that is 5-2, yet is just 2-5 ATS (should be 1-6 ATS). I continue to think that their defense is nowhere near as good as the one they have brought to the table in recent years. They are not as dominant against both the run and the pass, which bodes well for a well balanced Broncos offensive attack. The Steelers defense also thrives on the blitz and creating mistakes. The Broncos offense is conservative, chips away at the field and takes what is given. This should offset the blitz. Orton has been highly efficient and has not forced anything. He has thrown just one interception all season. This should decrease the chances of the Steelers creating turnovers. The Steelers are also battling some key defensive injuries.
The Broncos defense may not be able to continue at their current rate, but they still are playing at a high level. Their line, linebackers and secondary all seem to be gelling despite not much work time together. From this standpoint, one would assume that they still may have some upside. The Steelers lack the running game to offset the Broncos pass rush and blitzing capability. In fact, I expect the Broncos to be able to shut down the Steelers run game. The Steelers pass protection is suspect and struggle against blitz pick up. Expect this to be a problem if in fact the Steelers can not establish a running game. The Broncos seem to step it up at home, while the Steelers have not looked as good this year on the road compared to recent years, winning just one out of three games, and their one win being an unimpressive one against the Lions.
Until the Broncos establish a longer downward trend, I think the market is premature in their downgrade. They have been wrong about them all year.
