Unrelated News and Notes:
Palmer Out Week 7<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis said during his press conference Monday, Oct. 13, that QB Carson Palmer (elbow) is out for the team's Week 7 game. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will once again be his replacement.<o></o>
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Hasselbeck Out Week 7<o></o>
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The Associated Press reports that Seattle Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee) will miss at least one more game because a bulging disk in his back is causing problems with his knee. Hasselbeck saw a specialist in Los Angeles that determined the disk problem in Hasselbeck's back was causing weakness in his right knee.<o></o>
Palmer Out Week 7<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis said during his press conference Monday, Oct. 13, that QB Carson Palmer (elbow) is out for the team's Week 7 game. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will once again be his replacement.<o
></o><o
></o>Hasselbeck Out Week 7<o
></o><o
></o>The Associated Press reports that Seattle Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee) will miss at least one more game because a bulging disk in his back is causing problems with his knee. Hasselbeck saw a specialist in Los Angeles that determined the disk problem in Hasselbeck's back was causing weakness in his right knee.<o
></o>Post Game Injury Report (week 6 game injuries to keep an eye on):
QBs
Tony Romo ~ broken pinkie ~ out 4 weeks
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RBs
Joseph Addai ~ hamstring ~ status unknown<o></o>
Willie McGahee ~ undisclosed ~ status unknown<o></o>
Fred Taylor ~ head - returned to game<o></o>
Felix Jones ~ hamstring - status unknown<o></o>
Ladell Betts ~ sprained knee - status unknown<o></o>
QBs
Tony Romo ~ broken pinkie ~ out 4 weeks
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>RBs
Joseph Addai ~ hamstring ~ status unknown<o
></o>Willie McGahee ~ undisclosed ~ status unknown<o
></o>Fred Taylor ~ head - returned to game<o
></o>Felix Jones ~ hamstring - status unknown<o
></o>Ladell Betts ~ sprained knee - status unknown<o
></o>
Surprised to see you against the Pack at home. Like the NYJ-3, Raiders are a mess.
The game that stuck out the most to me this week is BUF pick 'em SD. I really like Buffalo at home off a bye, going against a west coast team at an early start time. This, to me, is a line based on public perception. Buffalo got blown out in Arizona last week (with no Edwards for most of the game) and SD looked good and won a nationally televised game. Edwards is back practicing and is expected to start Sunday.
Yeah, I have no faith in the Packer defense right now. Their defensive line is a total mess. No one has any straight answers about the health of Pickett right now or what percentage of production we can get out of him. I realize that Addai is dinged up, but Rhodes ran well for IND last weekend. Our run defense is horrible right now and our pass rush is also suffering the effects. With Manning feeling healthy for the first time (he said that last weekend was like a first regular season game for him after his surgical recovery) I just don't see GB stopping IND on Sunday. GB will get their points too, so I love the over in this game also. I will keep you posted on any injury and strategic news I hear in regard to the GB defense if you are interested.
I love the NYJ play too AJ. My only reason for not making it a 2* play is due to the coast to coast travel for them. They should be able to handle OAK pretty easily (check out NYJ's rush defense ~ I don't have the numbers in front of me right now since I am at work). NYJ should be able to stop OAK from running and I have zero concerns about OAK getting any type of a pass attack going.
Great thoughts on the SD / BUF game too. You are right on in regard to the public perception on this one, so in that regard I like the play. My only concern is that this is the time of the season when SD begins to get rolling after sleep-walking through the first weeks. Do they roll again? I am not sure. Could be some serious points scored in this one if SD does overcome the travel and gets rolling.
Keep in mind that I have not done any of my traditional capping at all yet for this week, but I wanted to jump on some of these numbers early before they move against me. I will definitely take a closer look at some these as the week progresses and likely have some late week additions.
Although I'm not sold on this one yet, good call on locking that line in early. Just checked and Bodog has it at IND-2.5.
As far as the BUF/SD game goes, just checked over at the usually reliable LVSC site, and they have the Chargers ranked #2 and the Bills #10 in their power rankings, which might explain the current "pick 'em" status. We'll see, you might be correct in your thinking that the Chargers are poised to take off - similar to what they did last year after getting smoked at MIN in week 4 or 5.
At the beginning of the season I chalked this game up as a loss for GB. A lot has changed between now and then for sure, and all of us are a lot smarter now heading into week 7 than we were heading into week 1....but I find myself still drawing the same conclusion, albeit for different reasons now.
IND got off to a rough start for multiple reasons. They've had defensive woes, Manning's recovery time (from what we've recently learned was two surgeries), lack of production in the run game, etc. But they appear to be waking up again. Manning himself said that physically he is finally at the point he would normally be at in week 1 of the regular season. I am not saying that Peyton Manning's improved play will cure the run game or the defense (even though both have suddenly shown curioulsy marked improvement), but I am saying that this team is starting to look a lot more like the one a lot of us expected to see this season.
GB has also been a roller coaster of expectations and realities. On paper this is basically the same team (minus Brett Favre) that was a 4th quarter away from a Super Bowl. Debates raged on how good or bad Rodgers would be in filling Brett's shoes. I knew Rodgers would be fantastic and said so in one of my very first threads of the season (I could tell you things that would surprise you about Rodgers vs. Favre last preseason). Anyway, but what I did not know was that the O-line was going to forget how to pass protect and run block during the offseason. Or that Ted Thompson was going to trade away D-Line depth, which is killing us with injuries to the few lineman we have left. I had high expectations for this team. Aaron Rodgers will kill you if you give him 2 seconds in the pocket. But I also deal with reality. Until GB gets more healthy on defense and until the O-line gets their act together, this team will have difficulty beating upper echelon teams or hanging with upper echelon offenses.
Long story short (too late), in the first few weeks of this season, despite defensive and O-line concerns, I might have taken GB +1, but since then my opinion on GB has stayed the same (they will beat bad defenses and average offenses and they will lose to great defenses and great offenses) and my regard for IND is increasing. I guess you could say that I've come full cirlce on this matchup. I like IND in this one and knowing that this number would certainly climb I had to jump on it early, even without my normal due dilligence.
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Listen to your gut AJ. Like I said in the week 6 thread, I think there have been 2 or 3 instances this season where you've stayed away from cashing a winner that I influenced you away from. That kills me buddy!! I hope I've given you more winners or kept you from more losers to make up for those 2 or 3 instances.
Anyway....I do like SD a lot. I have liked them since the preseason and for whatever reason I have always maintained a positive outlook on them even during their seemingly annual slow start. And I do think we are indeed seeing them regain their swagger again. Yes, that defense still needs a lot of improvement (great passing teams will chew them up unless they can keep constant pressure with their D-line) but SD is a very talented team. Does such a re-emergence mean that SD will win every game in which they appear to have an edge? Of course not. And they could very well lose to BUF this week. The travel, the line catering to public perceptions (high on SD and BUF on the backburner coming off of a bye). All of the reasons you laid out in your first comments about liking BUF were spot on AJ. To tell you truth, I like BUF this week also for a lot of the same reasons. It just seems like a good spot to take them. But I am too fearful that SD is rolling. We will soon find out.
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I have the SD/BUF game near a pick, but my gut, like a lot other people's, wants me to go with the Chargers. It has the makings of an easy 14 point victory where everyone stands around scratching their heads afterward wondering why they didn't see it coming. That damn "West coast team in an early East coast game" thing has been such a strong play this year, though, that I think a lot of people are gun shy on SD right now.
Because of the injuries and match ups in the GB/IND game I think there will be a lot running. The Packers ran the ball quite a bit last week during all stages of the game versus the Seahawks in spite of having limited success with it. You have to figure that they know their best chance in this game is to take advantage of Indy's run defense so that they can get Rodgers in some favorable passing situations. I was actually a little disappointed when I heard that Addai would be out in relation to my Under 48 play. The Colts also figure to run the ball a fair amount versus the weaker portion of the Packers' defense. You're right, there shouldn't be much drop off in the running game with Rhodes, but Manning may not choose to make as many dump off throws to Rhodes as he liked to do with Addai, who seems to be a really good back coming out of the backfield in the passing game.
Because of the injuries and match ups in the GB/IND game I think there will be a lot running. The Packers ran the ball quite a bit last week during all stages of the game versus the Seahawks in spite of having limited success with it. You have to figure that they know their best chance in this game is to take advantage of Indy's run defense so that they can get Rodgers in some favorable passing situations. I was actually a little disappointed when I heard that Addai would be out in relation to my Under 48 play. The Colts also figure to run the ball a fair amount versus the weaker portion of the Packers' defense. You're right, there shouldn't be much drop off in the running game with Rhodes, but Manning may not choose to make as many dump off throws to Rhodes as he liked to do with Addai, who seems to be a really good back coming out of the backfield in the passing game.
Goodluck this week eh? Get em homie.I essentially agree with everything you are saying. However, I have the cause and effect relationship tweaked just a bit, resulting in an Over play for me. I think that the run deficiencies of both defenses will make the pass attacks that much more effective. Could either team run more than they pass in this game? Sure, but probabaly only if they are having a lot of success running. Both of these teams can really score some points when they are clicking. Neither team can afford to run the ball if they are not having success doing so. Either way, through the air or by land, I think these teams will be moving the ball on each all day long.
Also keep in mind, GB has not been generating much of a pass rush in recent weeks either. That's not a good combo when paired with some of their secondary injuries. GB has some talented young defensive backs to play in place of guys like Harris, but they need to be groomed longer before they are no longer considered a liability.
No worries on the few times your opinion kept me off a play. I asked what you thought about a game. And you answered. No fault there. And believe me, I've tailed MANY of your winners. In fact, I think last week's parlay win had 3 of your plays included in the 4 gamer.
Anyway, for what it's worth you and Crunch have at least opened my eyes to this game not being the "slam dunk" I thought it was for Buffalo. I think I'm still going to make a small play on Buf, and wrap them into my 4 game parlay, but hold off on betting the farm.
I'm really starting to warm-up on NYJ. They are showing 5 or 6 points value on a couple of computer models I like to use (comprank/budgoode/sagarin/accu) and they fall into a 10-1ats system play for 2008.
The only other game I'm leaning on is Den+3 at NE. Honestly, I was surprised to see NE favored.
Yeah, NYJ looks pretty solid this weekend. I think Brett will have a nice day and Thomas Jones is starting to come around too. Let's just hope the major travel does not play too much of a factor. That line looks like it will be increasing to -3.5 soon. Paying -120 to -130 juice is a bit steep, but it may be worth it to avoid the -3.5 that is around the corner for anyone who did not get a pice of this action yet.
I was a bit surprised to see NE -3 myself. But I think it has a lot to do with the fact that Moss could have a big day versus DEN's lousy pass defense, the west to east coast travel, a strong homefield and (of course) public perception. The only way I could see NE doing a lot of damage in this game is if the coaching staff ever decided to simplify the passing offense for Cassel. To date, he has not proven himself yet capable of making all the necessary reads in that offense like Brady could. If they simplified the pass attack and gave him a lot more quick reads and quick passes I think they could pose a legit threat. But I have seen zero evidence that this is even being considered. And without the threat of a run game, Cassle has been a sitting duck as he struggles to grasp all the complexitites of that offense and the opposing defensive schemes.
