NFL Week #6, home dogs go 0-8 ATS. Worst week ever for home dogs?

[authorbytrade]

Been doing this a long time. I can't recall a week where home dogs did worse than they did this last week. It's rare enough to have 8 home dogs in any given week but it's even more rare for none of them to cover. If there has been a worse week ever, I'd love to know of it? Historians, data base guys, any answer on this?

I think this is a microcosm of the efficient NFL betting market. As I said in another thread, I think underdogs have been devalued by about 1.1 ppg so far in 2024 and this week adds to that.

Jets game is a perfect example of market shift. Yes, I know it's only one game, but 5-7 years ago the Jets would have been +3 (Even) in this game and it wold have been a SMASH spot for them. MNF division home dog off loss with a HC change. SMASH. In today's market who knows. Jets can think they gave it away but all things considered they picked up +5 random points and still couldn't cover...at home, with the better D.

 

[authorbytrade]

Sorry, wrong forum. Can someone move this for me, please?

 

[Mofome2]

Don't remember this happening and if it did how long ago it was. But I will guess some players will blindly bet all home dogs this week (6 of them) thinking that at least 4 out of 6 cash. Out of the six which do you think cover:

Saints +2
Giants +3
Browns +5
Pitt +1.5
Tampa +3.5
Zona +2.5

I would go with Pitt (old member SDS had a system play twice a year against Jets. It applies this week and I also believe Joe public jumps on the Jets with Adams acquisition.
Giants +3. This line stands out and I think the public reaction may be to take the Eagles based on last week playing the Browns and they can only be getting better.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Been doing this a long time. I can't recall a week where home dogs did worse than they did this last week. It's rare enough to have 8 home dogs in any given week but it's even more rare for none of them to cover. If there has been a worse week ever, I'd love to know of it? Historians, data base guys, any answer on this?

I think this is a microcosm of the efficient NFL betting market. As I said in another thread, I think underdogs have been devalued by about 1.1 ppg so far in 2024 and this week adds to that.

Jets game is a perfect example of market shift. Yes, I know it's only one game, but 5-7 years ago the Jets would have been +3 (Even) in this game and it wold have been a SMASH spot for them. MNF division home dog off loss with a HC change. SMASH. In today's market who knows. Jets can think they gave it away but all things considered they picked up +5 random points and still couldn't cover...at home, with the better D.

Very great points. Agree 100%. The betting market had a great week. One game that they didn't was Denver but for the most part great week for them.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Don't remember this happening and if it did how long ago it was. But I will guess some players will blindly bet all home dogs this week (6 of them) thinking that at least 4 out of 6 cash. Out of the six which do you think cover:

Saints +2
Giants +3
Browns +5
Pitt +1.5
Tampa +3.5
Zona +2.5

I would go with Pitt (old member SDS had a system play twice a year against Jets. It applies this week and I also believe Joe public jumps on the Jets with Adams acquisition.
Giants +3. This line stands out and I think the public reaction may be to take the Eagles based on last week playing the Browns and they can only be getting better.

It's a little early in the week for spot on numbers but as of today the betting market line for NYJ @ PITT is about NYJ -1 so it appears pretty close to the current number depending on the book you use.

As for the PHI @ NYG, approx PHI -4, -3.5 on the low end.

 

[exploited17]

Road favorites have covered 12 straight