NFL Week 5

FrankieCat · Oct 7, 2016

I usually like to wait until week 5 before posting any selections. I like to get a feel for things and four weeks of games helps!! I am not a stats driven capper. I like to watch lines and public/media perception. I feel the media inadvertently helps Vegas by swaying public opinion one way and Vegas sets their lines accordingly. Especially in the Prime Time games.

First game that sticks out to me is the Green Bay/NY Giants game. It opened at Green Bay -7.5 and is now down to -7. The Giants have lost their last two games and Beckham is portrayed in the media as being disgruntled. Of course, Green Bay is a public darling and is 2-1 with their only loss to Minn by 3 points. The Giants just got blasted by the Vikings and the linesmakers open Green Bay as a 7.5 point favorite. Green Bay hasn't been favored by this much yet this year and hasn't won by more than 7 points yet this year. I think the value lies with the Giants. If you like the GIants, I would bet them soon because late NY money could drop the line to 6.5 or more by game time.

NY Giants +7

Still looking at the games and if I like anything else, I will post.

Good Luck this week!!!

TomandJerry · Oct 7, 2016

good luck Frank

FrankieCat · Oct 8, 2016

Thanks Tom & Jerry!!

Another one I am looking at is the Indy/Chicago game. I just don't see how Indy is giving 4.5 points to anyone. Their O-Line is in shambles and their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. Indy is 1-3 with their one win being a 4 point win against Jax. Plus, their lines in the four games they have played are: -1, -1.5, -2.5 & +6. Since Hoyer has taken over for Cutler, the Bears have been playing much better. I see this game as a field goal game and think the 4.5 points are a gift!!

Chicago +4.5

Good Luck!!

TomandJerry · Oct 8, 2016

FrankieCat said:
Thanks Tom & Jerry!!

Another one I am looking at is the Indy/Chicago game. I just don't see how Indy is giving 4.5 points to anyone. Their O-Line is in shambles and their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. Indy is 1-3 with their one win being a 4 point win against Jax. Plus, their lines in the four games they have played are: -1, -1.5, -2.5 & +6. Since Hoyer has taken over for Cutler, the Bears have been playing much better. I see this game as a field goal game and think the 4.5 points are a gift!!

Chicago +4.5

Good Luck!!

I hope you are right this one so I can upgrade Indianapolis next week to GOW. Good luck.

FrankieCat · Oct 8, 2016

Game of the week!!!! Good luck to you also!!

Last game I am looking at is the Buffalo/LA Rams game. The Rams sit at 3-1 and they just aren't getting the respect they deserve. On the other hand, a couple of weeks ago Buff was so bad they fired their offensive coordinator. I think these are two scrappy teams and it should be a low scoring game. I like to check Pinnacles opening numbers to see if they are telling you something. Here is the opening numbers:

Money Line	Spread	Total	1st Half	2nd Half
Date	Time	Fav	Dog	Fav	Dog	Over	Under	Fav	Dog	Fav	Dog
10/02	8:10pm			STL-2 -105	BUF+2 -105	40.0 -105	40.0 -105
10/02	8:11pm			STL-2.5 -117	BUF+2.5 +106	40.0 -105	40.0 -105
10/04	6:55am	STL-142	BUF+129	STL-2.5 -117	BUF+2.5 +106	40.0 -105	40.0 -105
10/04	8:56am	STL-142	BUF+129	STL-2.5 -117	BUF+2.5 +106	40.0 +100	40.0 -110
10/04	6:24pm	STL-142	BUF+129	STL-2.5 -115	BUF+2.5 +104	40.0 +100	40.0 -110

Pinnacle opens the line at LA -2 at -105. Within one minute they move the line to LA -2.5 -117. And, Buff is at +106. This tells me that they are trying to keep you from betting the Rams and enticing you to take the Bills. I am not biting. I like the Rams at home in a low scoring affair.

LA Rams +1

Good Luck to all!!