NFL Week 4 Sagarin System

[FrankieCarbone]

Based on the sagarin ratings...here is the games where there might be some value.

Sagarin

Cinncinnati -6.2 Take Cinci at -3 or less
Jacksonville -10.47 Take Jax -7 or less
Tennessee -8.32 Most Value here....currently -3
Buffalo -11.41 Take buffalo at -8 or less
S.D. -4.55 Take Oakland with the points at home

All other games were right on the money as far a sagarin is concerned and the current lines.

I would say based on value...Tennesse and Oakland look like the top plays, but we'll see what happens.

 

[wizardofodd]

last week if you took the same numbers from the ratings and followed all games, you would have gone 5-11 (including the monday night game)

 

[FrankieCarbone]

Maybe I should fade the system then??

If you play 16 games a week, you're gonna lose no matter who you are.

 

[Jetplane]

last week if you took the same numbers from the ratings and followed all games, you would have gone 5-11 (including the monday night game)

>:X I have an adjusted sagarin ratings that hasn't been bad. I incorporate my numbers instead of using his ratings and it's been 4-0, 3-2,3-1...

This week has CARDS/TENN/BUFF/EAGLES with my ratings. Another 3-1? Maybe. I like CARDS and EAGLES if the injuries aren't bad.

 

[thecruncher]

Sagarin has traditionally been pretty good, but I crushed him last year and so far this year now that head to head comparisons are available at thepredictiontracker.

 

[Jetplane]

Sagarin has traditionally been pretty good, but I crushed him last year and so far this year now that head to head comparisons are available at thepredictiontracker.

sweet! thanks for the comment, i'm checkin out PT now.

 

[FrankieCarbone]

Thanks for that site. Looking at their numbers, it still looks like Jax, Tenn, Oakland, and Buff are the plays this week.

Sagarin has traditionally been pretty good, but I crushed him last year and so far this year now that head to head comparisons are available at thepredictiontracker.

 

[wizardofodd]

yea, you can comapre the lines to the books lines and they are right on most of the times. also, just an fyi, you can just pick the winner SU, the spread really is trying to balance action. LY, the spread in NFL games only mattered in about 15% of games!!

thanks for the site, i will check that one out also, you can also check out www.accuscore.com, they run 10,000 simulation games with injuries and all also, thats what harmon uses in sportsline to predict winners.

 

[Oak3]

last week if you took the same numbers from the ratings and followed all games, you would have gone 5-11 (including the monday night game)

Any Idea what the record was only on games with at least 3 point difference?

 

[jarhead60]

Sargarin picks and history are shown at this site

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/prednfl.html

That method did 53.9% ATS over last 4 years (557 out of 1034). Varied from 50 to 57%.

 

[jarhead60]

Cruncher

you said "Sagarin has traditionally been pretty good, but I crushed him last year and so far this year now that head to head comparisons are available at thepredictiontracker."

The 2007 season totals say you hit 52.7% based on 136 games.
Sagarin hit 57.0% on 267 games. That is not exactly 'crushing'
him. And you are doing well this year with 56.5% against Sagarin of 47.8%. Those percents are for ALL GAMES, not just the picks you have the most confidence in or the ones that are highest rated.

 

[BillyKidd]

Jarhead, are you in the Hilton contest this year?

 

[thecruncher]

Cruncher

you said "Sagarin has traditionally been pretty good, but I crushed him last year and so far this year now that head to head comparisons are available at thepredictiontracker."

The 2007 season totals say you hit 52.7% based on 136 games.
Sagarin hit 57.0% on 267 games. That is not exactly 'crushing'
him. And you are doing well this year with 56.5% against Sagarin of 47.8%. Those percents are for ALL GAMES, not just the picks you have the most confidence in or the ones that are highest rated.

jarhead -- I joined thepredictiontracker for the 2nd half of the season. Compare our rankings for the second half. Looking at it now, I guess he actually did have a higher ats record for the second half, doh! I was better in the 4 other categories, though, but not by a crushing margin, I guess, lol. I only remembered that I'd finished in 2nd place overall, but not that he wasn't too far behind in the second half. He was awarded first place for the entire season, I believe, as myself and the other top finisher from the second half only started with the second half. So a correction was somewhat in order, thank you. As for your last sentence, I'm not sure what you're referring to as I've picked every game on the board there as well, unlike Cover81, who left off many in the last couple of weeks of last season. Unfortunately, Todd doesn't always update our lines on Sunday mornings, as it's cost me 2 games this year after some Saturday night injury updates.

Are you in the Hilton again (I'd imagine you'd be in it for life after 2 years ago -- congrats again)? It looks like Fezzik is tearing it up early this year.

 

[jarhead60]

Yes I am in all the major contests, but I am not doing very well.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Maybe I should fade the system then??

If you play 16 games a week, you're gonna lose no matter who you are.

This line of thinking is ridiculous. The most successful gamblers I know are volume bettors. The idea that less is always better continues to get proven wrong year after year.

 

[jarhead60]

If one has a system that produces an estimated margin of victory for each game, and if the system is is accurate, then one should be able to rate games based on the differences from the point spread and the estimated margin of victory. This should produce a ranking of games based on the probability of winning ATS. If the system you are using does not produce a ranking with some degree of confidence, then I think that the system is not very good.
All that said, no one that I know of has a long term record of 60%. And there is a lot of luck involved, both in picking winners ATS and luck on the football field.

So if someone has a good numerical system, they should be able to do better in a few selected games than by picking the entire card.

 

[FrankieCarbone]

Should have been 3-1, but that Oakland loss was sick.

Thanks for that site. Looking at their numbers, it still looks like Jax, Tenn, Oakland, and Buff are the plays this week.