NFL (Week 3)

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1 unit: 3-7 -4.80
2 unit: 2-4 -5.00

Overall: 5-11 -9.80

Giants -3 1/2 (1)
Houston -6 1/2 (1)
Cleveland -3 1/2 (1)
Baltimore -2 1/2 (1)
Colts -3 (1)
Dallas +1 1/2 (1)
Seattle -14 (2)
Miami -3 (2)

Thoughts & reasons tomorrow.

Pack -6 1/2 (2)
 

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think u bounce back this wknd united, keep working bro it will turn around. I like the card
 

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Washington @ NYG -3 1/2 (1)

Wash at 1-1 with both games at home. The change at QB has got the offense rolling. Personally, their D has been playing very well. Wash has not been very good on the road going 1-13 SU in its last 14 games. At NYG their 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and Washington is 3-7-1 ats in their last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants. I like those trends on y side. NYG (0-2) but could easily be 2-0 losing by 1 and 4 points to undefeated Dallas and Atlanta. As bad as decisions that Eli has made is kind of scary but some of the calls can be blamed on the coaching staff. Anyway, going to bet on the Giants as hopefully they can get a big W at home and still be in the hunt with Philly, Wash, and they can hope Dallas struggles offensively without Romo. I saw some 3's out there and hopefully you can get it for that if you like NYG.

Tampa Bay @ Houston -6 1/2 (1)

Which TB team will show up this week? The one that was thumped 42-14 by Tenn in week 1 or the one that took it to the Saints 26-19 at home. And then there's Houston at 0-2 with both losses by a TD and only 5-11 straight up in their last 16 games at home. TB did win straight up last week as a 10 point dog but it looks like the Saints team is definitely a hurting and Brees playing hurt without the weapons that he had been used to in the past. Anyway, TB gets credit for a nice W on the road. They are now 1-7 straight up last 8 games and 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road. Houston still has a chance in what is obviously might be be a strange division race with the Colts struggles and the improvement of Tenn & Jack. I'm hoping Houston gets the picture, gets a nice first win to silence the critics for a week, and that things return to normal for TB and their coach who is just not a very good coach IMO.

Oakland @ Cleveland -3 1/2 (1)

One of these teams are going to be 2-1 and I just can't believe it will be Oakland. Oakland offense looked unstoppable last week as Carr appeared to have found his groove. The question is will Oakland feed off that Big W at home and actually go out on the road and put up those kind of offensive stats in the pound? They might but I doubt it. Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road and 0-4-1 ats in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland. Now Cleveland's loss to the Jets in the opening week is a little more justified. The Jets are much improved this year and their D is for real. Cleveland looked good last week. So it's a new week in the NFL and who's going to show up and how are they going to play. I'm going to ride the home team that is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oakland and 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland. What it comes down to it for me is I just can't believe that a team that is 4-20 SU in its last 24 games is going to win its 2nd game in a row especially on the road.

Cincy @ Baltimore -2 1/2 (1)

I'm very high on this Cincy team and they are off to a nice 2-0 start. Now they play a 0-2 team that is coming off a 37-33 loss at Oakland as a 6 point fav. It seems easy sometimes to make a play or your choice on a game. Cincy seemed like a no brainer when I first saw this line. But Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home. Cincy is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Baltimore. I know those stats go back to times when Baltimore was really good and Cincy not so good, but still solid results. This is Baltimore's home opener and after the 0-3 start with a close 6 point loss at Denver and 4 at Oakland, both losses at the tail end of the game, I'm just trying to figure out this crazy NFL and it looks like it's Baltimore's turn to keep this NFL interesting.

Colt's @ Tenn -3 (1)

Saints fan, (good person and poster) I am going back to the well to try and pick up one of those units back. I have been wrong twice now on my own home team. I bet against them many times in the past. Thank god their done with NY! Tenn has been a different story. Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee. Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee. Tennessee is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games. Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis.

Colts are decimated in the secondary. The offense has quite frankly been non existent in the first two games. Luck has sucked! Missed fg's by Venaturi, fumbles from Gore. This team is a F mess right now. Wait a minute, I think they were 0-2 last year, although the losses were much closer. New year I know, but also a new week and it's going to take 3 strikes before I write them off. Tenn at 1-1 and obviously a much improved team. Stupid bet by me but really feels like the right one.

Atlanta @ Dallas +1 1/2 (1)

Both teams off to the 2-0 start to the season. Dallas losing Romo of course is a big loss. The Dallas D is what impresses me as they are holding the opposition to only 53 ry per game. The Falcons are 2-0 and won at NYG last week with a big 4th quarter comeback. (piss poor play calling by the NYG) Ryan has been playing well and his recievers are getting open.
But it's going to take more than one win on the road before I believe in the Falcons. Atlanta is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road. They are 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road. So they are getting better at it. Dallas is tough at home and have faced adversity before. I think they will keep things simple for Weeden and that to much emphasis has been place on Romo's absence. Of course Weeden's record as a starter is horrific but he really didn't play for a very good team. Anyway, I'll risk the (1) and take the Cowboys at home as dogs.

Bears @ Seattle -14 (2)

I really don't know what to say about this game that everyone already doesn't know. I'm making a big play with two 0-2 teams and one has to win by more than td's and coming off a short week to boot. The famous Seattle D is giving up 30.5 ppg and 376 ty per game. What the hell has happened to them? Some say it's playing all of the extra games in the playoffs and its catching up to them. Some say their getting old. I say they are still a very good team and after watching Clausen come in last week after Cutler went out I feel pretty good about this bet. Especially since Seattle lost to Monday night. Wilson is a gamer and that crowd will be behind their team. That Bears D is giving up 39.5 ppg and 124 ry. Lynch will get 100 and wouldn't surprise me if Wilson gets 50. I can't see Seattle playing conservatively with the 0-2 start to the season. SUCKER ME IN!

Buffalo @ Miami -3 (2)

Both teams at 1-1 and coming off losses and looking to get back on track. Buff actually made a blowout game look much closer with some scores in the 4th. Miami had their chances but ran into a very game Jacksonville team that appears to be playing very hard for their coach and appers to have their franchise qb. I don't what to expect from this Buff D that stuffed the Colts and couldn't stop the Pats. Now they have to go on the road to play at Miami who is obviously displeased about letting that winnable game get away last week. Buffalo is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road. I like my chances with that trend. I'm aware that Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home. But Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo and I'm really thinking that they can take this one at home as they appear to have the better D so far and a good D at home is another big advantage when only giving the FG.

KC @ Green Bay -6 1/2 (2)

I would never play against the Pack at home, especially in a PT Monday night game as long as Rodgers is in the lineup and healthy. It looks like GB will have their top rb back after the ankle sprain and they would like nothing better to be 3-0 before they hit the WC next week. KC has had a lot of rest since their last Thursday night game that they blew to Denver. They have only allowed 79.5 ry per game. On the other hand, they have allowed 268 py per game and that's what Rodgers will exploit. I can't imagine any let down from GB, especially this early in the season. The big question here is how good is this Chiefs team? I know they will be fired up, but it's another thing to go into Lambeau and come out with a W. I really think GB would be a good pick in a 6 pt teaser. If so better get it before the line hits 7 or more.

Good luck everyone and remember to bet reasonably!

I hope everyone has a + week.
 

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Good luck!
 

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Thanks for the well wishes, I hope everyone ends up in the +. I've had a lot of winning seasons in various sports. Unfortunately, it doesn't always happen. The key is betting reasonably so you can stay in the game. I'd be telling a fib if I said I'm not worried because no one likes to give out losers. I had a season last year that wasn't normal. I know it, most of you know it, it's over and a new season. Right now I'm one of those 0-2 teams as I've lost $ both weeks. This is a key week for me also. I am in the + in NCAA at least.
 

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United...........win or lose, you're a solid capper in many sports...........appreciate the efforts put forth here............great write ups, BOL with all your action this week end............indy
 

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I just took Washington before looking at your thread. I certainly can't trust the new York giants to win in this league with their questionable decisions the last couple of weeks. They will have trouble with mistakes and Washington will kill clock with Morris and Jones. Good luck, hate being against you.
 

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United,

The cream always rises to the top. It's early, you will be fine.

Continued success.
 

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Good luck United..interested way you like Dallas? I went the other way..Agree their defense is good but with Weeden so one dimensional had to go the other way. Also while their run defense is good Atlanta lives through the air..I really love you analysis and early posts..thanks again
 

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I'm on the Giants with you tonight United...also on the over, Bol brother.
 

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Best of Luck United. Still plenty of games left to go. I like the Dallas pick as well for complete unstatistical(might not be a word) reasons. In the past, Dallas has played strong games the week after Romo was injured. I'm too lazy to google, but I think they won as underdogs the week after his last broken collarbone with Weeden. And that team had a defense like my username.
 

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I'm on the Giants with you tonight United...also on the over, Bol brother.

You must have loved all that scoring in the 4th. I was afraid Wash was going to score again and then make a two pointer and beat me by a 1/2. That's how paranoid I am right now.
 

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Always appreciate your effort, United. Well before I started posting last year, I always checked your picks and still do. Much respect to you, sir
 

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Nice win and start to the week United...yeah I loved that I'll advised pass...some coaches never learn, but I was laughing and thankful tonight.
 

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Washington @ NYG -3 1/2 (1)

Wash at 1-1 with both games at home. The change at QB has got the offense rolling. Personally, their D has been playing very well. Wash has not been very good on the road going 1-13 SU in its last 14 games. At NYG their 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and Washington is 3-7-1 ats in their last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants. I like those trends on y side. NYG (0-2) but could easily be 2-0 losing by 1 and 4 points to undefeated Dallas and Atlanta. As bad as decisions that Eli has made is kind of scary but some of the calls can be blamed on the coaching staff. Anyway, going to bet on the Giants as hopefully they can get a big W at home and still be in the hunt with Philly, Wash, and they can hope Dallas struggles offensively without Romo. I saw some 3's out there and hopefully you can get it for that if you like NYG.

Tampa Bay @ Houston -6 1/2 (1)

Which TB team will show up this week? The one that was thumped 42-14 by Tenn in week 1 or the one that took it to the Saints 26-19 at home. And then there's Houston at 0-2 with both losses by a TD and only 5-11 straight up in their last 16 games at home. TB did win straight up last week as a 10 point dog but it looks like the Saints team is definitely a hurting and Brees playing hurt without the weapons that he had been used to in the past. Anyway, TB gets credit for a nice W on the road. They are now 1-7 straight up last 8 games and 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road. Houston still has a chance in what is obviously might be be a strange division race with the Colts struggles and the improvement of Tenn & Jack. I'm hoping Houston gets the picture, gets a nice first win to silence the critics for a week, and that things return to normal for TB and their coach who is just not a very good coach IMO.

Oakland @ Cleveland -3 1/2 (1)

One of these teams are going to be 2-1 and I just can't believe it will be Oakland. Oakland offense looked unstoppable last week as Carr appeared to have found his groove. The question is will Oakland feed off that Big W at home and actually go out on the road and put up those kind of offensive stats in the pound? They might but I doubt it. Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road and 0-4-1 ats in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland. Now Cleveland's loss to the Jets in the opening week is a little more justified. The Jets are much improved this year and their D is for real. Cleveland looked good last week. So it's a new week in the NFL and who's going to show up and how are they going to play. I'm going to ride the home team that is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oakland and 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland. What it comes down to it for me is I just can't believe that a team that is 4-20 SU in its last 24 games is going to win its 2nd game in a row especially on the road.

Cincy @ Baltimore -2 1/2 (1)

I'm very high on this Cincy team and they are off to a nice 2-0 start. Now they play a 0-2 team that is coming off a 37-33 loss at Oakland as a 6 point fav. It seems easy sometimes to make a play or your choice on a game. Cincy seemed like a no brainer when I first saw this line. But Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home. Cincy is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Baltimore. I know those stats go back to times when Baltimore was really good and Cincy not so good, but still solid results. This is Baltimore's home opener and after the 0-3 start with a close 6 point loss at Denver and 4 at Oakland, both losses at the tail end of the game, I'm just trying to figure out this crazy NFL and it looks like it's Baltimore's turn to keep this NFL interesting.

Colt's @ Tenn -3 (1)

Saints fan, (good person and poster) I am going back to the well to try and pick up one of those units back. I have been wrong twice now on my own home team. I bet against them many times in the past. Thank god their done with NY! Tenn has been a different story. Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee. Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee. Tennessee is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games. Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis.

Colts are decimated in the secondary. The offense has quite frankly been non existent in the first two games. Luck has sucked! Missed fg's by Venaturi, fumbles from Gore. This team is a F mess right now. Wait a minute, I think they were 0-2 last year, although the losses were much closer. New year I know, but also a new week and it's going to take 3 strikes before I write them off. Tenn at 1-1 and obviously a much improved team. Stupid bet by me but really feels like the right one.

Atlanta @ Dallas +1 1/2 (1)

Both teams off to the 2-0 start to the season. Dallas losing Romo of course is a big loss. The Dallas D is what impresses me as they are holding the opposition to only 53 ry per game. The Falcons are 2-0 and won at NYG last week with a big 4th quarter comeback. (piss poor play calling by the NYG) Ryan has been playing well and his recievers are getting open.
But it's going to take more than one win on the road before I believe in the Falcons. Atlanta is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road. They are 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road. So they are getting better at it. Dallas is tough at home and have faced adversity before. I think they will keep things simple for Weeden and that to much emphasis has been place on Romo's absence. Of course Weeden's record as a starter is horrific but he really didn't play for a very good team. Anyway, I'll risk the (1) and take the Cowboys at home as dogs.

Bears @ Seattle -14 (2)

I really don't know what to say about this game that everyone already doesn't know. I'm making a big play with two 0-2 teams and one has to win by more than td's and coming off a short week to boot. The famous Seattle D is giving up 30.5 ppg and 376 ty per game. What the hell has happened to them? Some say it's playing all of the extra games in the playoffs and its catching up to them. Some say their getting old. I say they are still a very good team and after watching Clausen come in last week after Cutler went out I feel pretty good about this bet. Especially since Seattle lost to Monday night. Wilson is a gamer and that crowd will be behind their team. That Bears D is giving up 39.5 ppg and 124 ry. Lynch will get 100 and wouldn't surprise me if Wilson gets 50. I can't see Seattle playing conservatively with the 0-2 start to the season. SUCKER ME IN!

Buffalo @ Miami -3 (2)

Both teams at 1-1 and coming off losses and looking to get back on track. Buff actually made a blowout game look much closer with some scores in the 4th. Miami had their chances but ran into a very game Jacksonville team that appears to be playing very hard for their coach and appers to have their franchise qb. I don't what to expect from this Buff D that stuffed the Colts and couldn't stop the Pats. Now they have to go on the road to play at Miami who is obviously displeased about letting that winnable game get away last week. Buffalo is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road. I like my chances with that trend. I'm aware that Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home. But Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo and I'm really thinking that they can take this one at home as they appear to have the better D so far and a good D at home is another big advantage when only giving the FG.

KC @ Green Bay -6 1/2 (2)

I would never play against the Pack at home, especially in a PT Monday night game as long as Rodgers is in the lineup and healthy. It looks like GB will have their top rb back after the ankle sprain and they would like nothing better to be 3-0 before they hit the WC next week. KC has had a lot of rest since their last Thursday night game that they blew to Denver. They have only allowed 79.5 ry per game. On the other hand, they have allowed 268 py per game and that's what Rodgers will exploit. I can't imagine any let down from GB, especially this early in the season. The big question here is how good is this Chiefs team? I know they will be fired up, but it's another thing to go into Lambeau and come out with a W. I really think GB would be a good pick in a 6 pt teaser. If so better get it before the line hits 7 or more.

Good luck everyone and remember to bet reasonably!

I hope everyone has a + week.

Good read my friend good luck this week my friend!!! :103631605
 

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