Not the start I have been hoping for. Bad results and bad breaks have lead to the worst three weeks I have produced in the NFL. If I am not pleased with the results tonight, I will probably hang up posting plays the rest of this season.
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Panthers @ Cowboys
Play: Panthers +9
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
The Cowboys did nothing in the off season or the first two games to warrant so much respect. Beating up on the Bucs in week was has proven common practice for all of their opponents, and following it up with a home loss leaves a lot to be desired for the Cowboys. Sentiment may be at an all time low for the Panthers. After losing last year’s playoff game in the fashion they did and following it up with 2 bad losses this year, it appears that oddsmakers are no longer valuing them as a playoff contender. I said it last week, and will say it again; the best time to back the Panthers is when their back is against the wall and are underdogs.
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One facet of the Panthers team in which I feel has material upward mobility is their defense. They possess a well balanced unit that can defend both the run and pass above average, but have been underachieving so far year to date. Peppers and a couple other players have favorable match ups in this game, which should allow them to put pressure on the quarterback, something in which they were unable to do the first couple of games. The Cowboys offense is inconsistent and mistake prone largely because of Romo. Romo once again proved last week that he is not a big game quarterback. This weeks game is another really big one for him.
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A lot of mention has surrounded Delhomme and the Panthers anemic offense. However, there has been no mention that the Cowboys possess a sub par defense. The Panthers offensive success is contingent on their running game. Although the Cowboys did contain the Giants running game last week, this is a very sub par facet to their game, and would be surprised if the Panthers do not establish a highly efficient ground game. This should open things up for Delhomme, who is coming off a solid game last week.
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Until the Cowboys prove to be a contender, they do not warrant laying such high odds. Although the Panthers have not proved anything either, this is a team who comes out of the woodwork when you least expect it.
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Panthers @ Cowboys
Play: Under 48
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The market has brought down the line of the Panthers 2 points at most places since the open. They also bid up the Total as much as three points. It looks like the market is bullish on the Panthers offense or bearish on the Cowboys defense. However, where I am finding the most value is on the Panthers defense and betting against an overrated Cowboys offense. The Panthers defense is nowhere nearly as anemic as what they showed the last couple of weeks. They have a lot of talent and past success to make me think they do not bounce back soon enough. Expect the Cowboys to come out trying to establish a running game, as Romo once again proved he can not be relied on. Without Barber, the Cowboys may find it harder to consistently establish a well balanced attack that moves the ball downfield. Romo’s inconsistencies also increases the chances that the Cowboys points scored well not be commensurate to their yards gained.
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Not sure why the market appears to be so bullish on the Panthers offense. Even if they do perform much better than they did the last couple of weeks, this actually may favor the Under, as the Panthers would like to slow down the pace of this game, establish a heavy dose of running and use a lot of short passes to allow Delhomme to get his rhythm and confidence back. The last thing they want to do is turn this into a shootout, as their offense is not built for such. The Cowboys defense should allow the Panthers to ground out yards on the ground. Their ability to get to the quarterback should also force Delhomme to heavily rely on first level passing. Thus, if the Panthers do find success on offense, it will come at the expense of eating up a heavy dose of clock.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Panthers @ Cowboys
Play: Panthers +9
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
The Cowboys did nothing in the off season or the first two games to warrant so much respect. Beating up on the Bucs in week was has proven common practice for all of their opponents, and following it up with a home loss leaves a lot to be desired for the Cowboys. Sentiment may be at an all time low for the Panthers. After losing last year’s playoff game in the fashion they did and following it up with 2 bad losses this year, it appears that oddsmakers are no longer valuing them as a playoff contender. I said it last week, and will say it again; the best time to back the Panthers is when their back is against the wall and are underdogs.
<o
> </o>One facet of the Panthers team in which I feel has material upward mobility is their defense. They possess a well balanced unit that can defend both the run and pass above average, but have been underachieving so far year to date. Peppers and a couple other players have favorable match ups in this game, which should allow them to put pressure on the quarterback, something in which they were unable to do the first couple of games. The Cowboys offense is inconsistent and mistake prone largely because of Romo. Romo once again proved last week that he is not a big game quarterback. This weeks game is another really big one for him.
<o
> </o>A lot of mention has surrounded Delhomme and the Panthers anemic offense. However, there has been no mention that the Cowboys possess a sub par defense. The Panthers offensive success is contingent on their running game. Although the Cowboys did contain the Giants running game last week, this is a very sub par facet to their game, and would be surprised if the Panthers do not establish a highly efficient ground game. This should open things up for Delhomme, who is coming off a solid game last week.
<o
> </o>Until the Cowboys prove to be a contender, they do not warrant laying such high odds. Although the Panthers have not proved anything either, this is a team who comes out of the woodwork when you least expect it.
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> </o><o
> </o>Panthers @ Cowboys
Play: Under 48
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The market has brought down the line of the Panthers 2 points at most places since the open. They also bid up the Total as much as three points. It looks like the market is bullish on the Panthers offense or bearish on the Cowboys defense. However, where I am finding the most value is on the Panthers defense and betting against an overrated Cowboys offense. The Panthers defense is nowhere nearly as anemic as what they showed the last couple of weeks. They have a lot of talent and past success to make me think they do not bounce back soon enough. Expect the Cowboys to come out trying to establish a running game, as Romo once again proved he can not be relied on. Without Barber, the Cowboys may find it harder to consistently establish a well balanced attack that moves the ball downfield. Romo’s inconsistencies also increases the chances that the Cowboys points scored well not be commensurate to their yards gained.
<o
> </o>Not sure why the market appears to be so bullish on the Panthers offense. Even if they do perform much better than they did the last couple of weeks, this actually may favor the Under, as the Panthers would like to slow down the pace of this game, establish a heavy dose of running and use a lot of short passes to allow Delhomme to get his rhythm and confidence back. The last thing they want to do is turn this into a shootout, as their offense is not built for such. The Cowboys defense should allow the Panthers to ground out yards on the ground. Their ability to get to the quarterback should also force Delhomme to heavily rely on first level passing. Thus, if the Panthers do find success on offense, it will come at the expense of eating up a heavy dose of clock.
