NFL Week 2 mid-week looks (YTD 0-1)...

BrokeN · Sep 10, 2003

Skins +3...Falcons with not much of a run threat with Vick out, so Bailey and Smoot can concentrate on shutting down P. Price with Finneran out. Looking for Arrington to have his hands full with Crumpler though as he has shown break-away speed.
On the other side of the ball, Spurrier has shown concern with QB Johnson knowing their audible calls, facing one of the few 3-4 defenses in the league, and the possible noise problem they will face in the dome. Ramsey needs to spread the ball around and include Gardner, McCants, and Canidate in the dink and dunk offense. Falcons have given up a couple of huge plays on the ground which Canidate has the ability to do and what I am looking for.

Lions +6.5...Line has risen a point. The big thing on this one is that GB is North Coast's NFL 4* play this week. The plan is to fade the 4* and 3* favorites TY and see how they do.

Cards +4.5...Looks like a big-O-trapolla. Hawks coming in with some huge momentum from last year and into this year. If Cards could not stop the Lions how in the world are they only getting 4.5 to a team that beat the Saints by 17 points. Don't understand. Think this will be one of Space's U-G-L-Y plays, almost for sure. Got to be a huge contrarian, I think; we'll see. Hawks is NC NFL 3* play.

The following plays are not complete till just before KO as I will be tracking the linemoves:

Texans +8...I know, I know, that Houston is 0-4 SU/ATS following a SU win. The single difference TY is that Carr has an improved O-line in front of him, as long as he has time he can come up with some plays. This may be a blowout as the Saints are coming off a lost in which they gave up a 4:0 TO ratio. It is also very hard to over come 114 yards in penalties. This one is just a look so far.

Bears +8.5...LM

Boys +7.5...LM

GL
BrokeN

[This message was edited by BrokeN on September 11, 2003 at 03:16 AM.]

Oren1 · Sep 10, 2003

you've got some balls betting on these dogs Broke! Good luck to you.

raiders72001 · Sep 10, 2003

BrokeN- Nice to see you. I made a copy of your picks for the RR. I hope you don't mind. GL

BrokeN · Sep 11, 2003

Oren, if there is something I have learned from this forum is that betting a chalk, there is only one way of winning. Win out right AND cover the number. On the other hand, by betting on the dogs, you can either win the game outright (remember that no team is a sure bet to win out right or there would not be ML bets), or lose but stay within the spread.

Betting on "U-G-L-Y" dogs are more likely to be contrarian (fade joe). Wonder why books have survived for so long. Have you ever been so sure that a chalk could and would easily cover the number that you put down some huge sums of pocket change just to have your team get blown out? I know I have. As the saying goes, if it looks too easy, go the other way.

I know it may seem crazy, but look at all the services that say they have a LOCK, ain't no such thing. Very, very few people ever hit a posted LOCK. So, why not go with the percentages or against them by fading the popular plays?

GLTY
BrokeN

Oren1 · Sep 11, 2003

I've definitely gotten bitten once or twice or more

on wagers I thought were damn near a lock. So I understand your reasoning with these picks. I also think you've made a good selection of dog picks here, giving a team 4 1/2 points or more in today's NFL can obviously tip the scales in your favor in a lot of cases. I don't think I'm on the other side of any of these picks. Oh, I do have the Seahawks. That's definitely one of my picks I have the least confidence in. I think the Falcons are a far better team than the skins, even with injuries, but those 3 points might be enough for a push.

BrokeN · Sep 13, 2003

Adding:

Jags +3...Are the Bills as good as LW? Me thinks that, that win came on the heels of the Milloy fiasco. He probably new all of the audibles that Brady called out during the game and adjusted accordingly. We'll see how focused the Bills are coming into this week after kicking some Pat a**.

Jags coming off a heartbreaker LW with the old man Brunell completing a very high percent of his passes. Very good sign that they still have a balanced offensive attack unlike the pass heavy Pats without a stud RB.

GL
BrokeN

Rattler+ · Sep 13, 2003

BrokeN
Are these your actual wagers or are they your thoughts? Specifically the Cards & Jags. Your write-ups are very true, but my 2 favorite wagers that I'm down on this week are the Hawks & the Bills! I still feel good about them, and wouldn't change them if I could. But your posts do send a shiver up my spine!
Good Luck this weekend.

SpaciousK · Sep 13, 2003

Aah, Broke, my friend, you know me all too well.

Only looking at probably one or two games this week, but I can assure you, they will undoubtedly come from among the plays you've mentioned.

Glad to see you back. Let's put aside some time to chat next week. Whaddya say?

BrokeN · Sep 13, 2003

OK Oren. Will take you advice, and Space's about laying off of the Skins this week; but, but, yeah. Not enough joe's on Atlanta for this game, actually pretty much 50/50.

Rattler, Jags is definately a play for me. As for the Cards, I'll be on them just to fade Power Sweep's 4* and 3* plays. Looking at the Seattle and Zona game at only 4.5 looks just too easy. If it ain't a trap it's ok but if it is one I'll be on the right side for once. I've made it a point this year, that if it looks too easy go the other way.

Sure Space, I'll be able to get on Wed or Thur night, just let me know when by email.

How's the Hilton top pick this week? Looks like a big ole fade at 85%.

BrokeN

G.MONEY · Sep 13, 2003

BROKE N...YES YOU CAN PLAY IN THE CONTEST, WE ARE GLAD TO HAVE YOU...I WOULD PULL UP THE THREAD TO SEE ALL THE RULES...G.

RPM · Sep 13, 2003

BrokeN

good to see you man!~ i was hoping you would turn up

Oren1 · Sep 13, 2003

hmmmm someone is taking my advice... maybe we should take the Skins...

BrokeN · Sep 13, 2003

Sorry RPM. Couldn't get onto the internet LW, got things fixed so should be good to go.

BrokeN

Oren1 · Sep 13, 2003

week 2's almost here! can you feel it?
good luck dawg, I'll be pullin' for your lions.

don't miss my special 23-1 parlay of the day

Oren1 · Sep 14, 2003

sorry broken,

, hope the Falcons pull a comeback for ya here... I guess the Skins aren't as bad as I thought

BrokeN · Sep 14, 2003

Ain't no thang Oren. Still feeling out the teams. When Space said he didn't like the Skins I listened although I thought they could do it like they did. He's won me a lot more than lost so I could care less about that one.

How bout this one:

Lost
Any DOGS out there
Reward no questions asked

Hope for a better week next week
BrokeN

sammythesage · Sep 14, 2003

T Y S hell couldn't help saying it to my fellow dog player. don't worry the tide will turn. lol

Oren1 · Sep 14, 2003

hey this week the linesmakers where still feeling the teams out as well, looks like most of th favorites covered. Can Minny AND the Giants cover their large spreads as well? I can't see myself betting on the Bears OR Cowboys. I think the Giants will probably dominate the Cowgirls.