Will be traveling this week so posting early. Not sure if I will be able to get back and respond or not.
Happy Holidays to everyone!!
A 2-2 record last week plus a winner on the strong opinion total in the Philadelphia game. The last seven weeks have now produced a 33-18-3 65% record. And, the season record is still at 59%, so it’s remains a very strong season in the NFL.
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 124-105-9 54% over the first sixteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it’s more important to look at each team’s last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
Many games this week mean absolutely nothing so some of the analysis will be brief in those games.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND –8 Buffalo 33.5
My two losses last week were on Buffalo and against New England. Despite getting five interceptions and being +4 in the turnover ratio, NE probably deserved to cover that game (even though a successful two point conversion would have pushed the game) as they out gained the Jets 5.4 yppl to 4.4 yppl. As for Buffalo, their defense played just as I anticipated, allowing Miami just 169 total yards and 3.0 yppl. The problem for Buffalo, as it has been all year, was gaining just 177 total yards at 2.9 yppl and losing three fumbles and being –2 in the turnover ratio, including a costly 74 yard interception return for a touchdown, which sealed the game. The Buffalo defense has played well all year long and well on the road as well, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The problem has been the offense, which has gained just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl on the road and 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games overall. For NE, their defense continues to play just as well as Buffalo, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl at home and 4.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. On offense, NE has played worse at home but I think that’s probably a product of the weather and an aberration, rather than anything significant. Over their last five games, they are averaging 4.6 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but throwing the ball for 5.8 yps against 5.5 yps. Because NE can at least move the ball somewhat, compared to the Buffalo defense, that usually means they are getting better field position and allowing their defense to tee off on Buffalo and Drew Bledsoe. That is probably the difference in this game. Buffalo qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY) and they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 239-168-14. NE qualifies in a last home game situation, which plays on good teams, which is 29-9. Final numbers favor NE by 8.5 points (all games), by four points (last five games) and by 9.5 points (home/away games). Final totals suggest 32 points (all games), 40 points (last five games) and 30 points (home/away games). I’ll lean with Buffalo because of the situations. NEW ENGLAND 19 BUFFALO 13
SAN FRANCISCO Pk Seattle 44
The Seattle boxscore from last week was pretty interesting, considering they won the game rather handily (although the cover was in doubt and Arizona probably deserved to cover) but Seattle was actually –3 in the turnover ratio, which obviously helped Arizona stay in the game, cover wise. San Francisco played a terrific game, especially when you consider they lost Owens in the second quarter. SF out gained Philly 417 yards to 293 yards but the yards per play were even at 5.7 yppl for each team. SF sacked McNabb the second most times he has been sacked in a game this year, getting to him five times. It’s been well documented about the Seattle road woes. I played Seattle two weeks ago, when they were at St. Louis, but they were getting seven points. Seattle has been competitive in all but two of their road games, so getting seven was fine. But, they are a pick ‘em in this game, which might be asking too much, especially against a 49er team who has played terrific at home this year and doesn’t appear to have quit. SF has too many young players playing for jobs and even Garcia is playing for his job as is Kevan Barlow. Throw out the game against Arizona and Seattle has allowed at least 27 points in every other road game this year (six games). Now, go the other way and note SF hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any home game this year. So, if Seattle seems predetermined to allow at least 27 points and SF doesn’t allow more than 17 points, that’s going to make it awful hard for Seattle to win this game. Meanwhile, for SF, they have scored at least 24 points in all but one home game this year (six games). It certainly seems likely that SF will get at least 24-27 points in this game. Seattle has only scored more than 24 points in two road games and one of those games was against Arizona, which really doesn’t count. Seattle has played well in their last five games, gaining 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, throwing for 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps, but that will play right into the hands of SF, who is allowing just 5.2 yppl against 5.6 yppl and 5.7 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. Going the other way, the SF offense is playing very well right now, averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, including running the ball for 5.1 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle has played good rush defense lately, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr but they are allowing 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 99-52-4 and plays against Seattle here. San Francisco also qualifies in a last home game situation, which is a 65-33-4 play. The 49ers also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-59-8. SF would also qualify in four more very profitable situations if they were to become a dog in this game. Final numbers suggest SF by 5.5 points (all games), three points (last five games) and by 13.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 305-230-11. That same situation played the under in the SF game last week and I ignored it because of the great situation I thought SF and Philly were in last week. This week, the numbers suggest a high scoring game, which is enough to keep me off the under, but I will still lean that way because SF has played so well at home on defense and Seattle has struggled some on the road. SAN FRANCISCO 27 SEATTLE 16
Philadelphia –6.5 WASHINGTON 40.5
This game means an awful lot to Philadelphia as a win still gives them a shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss could cost them the division, which appeared to be theirs for the taking just a week ago. The Philly offense continues to roll, and they averaged 5.7 yppl in their loss last week. They are now averaging 6.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, which includes, running for 5.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr and throwing for 7.1 yps against 5.5 yps. For Washington, their defense has played better over their last five games, allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but their rush defense has been terrible, allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The Philly defense has been below average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, including a staggering 5.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr. They allowed SF to rush for 209 yards at 5.1 ypr last week. Washington isn’t playing well on offense, averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. But, at home, they are averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and the passing game is, at least, respectable, averaging 5.6 yps against 5.8 yps. I don’t have any situations on either side in this game. Final numbers suggest Philly by three points (all games), by 5.5 points (last five games) and by 11.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in a total play, which is 77-42-2 (4-1 TY) and plays on the over in this game. Washington has played five teams this year that have poor rush defenses, and they have averaged 24 points (21 in three home games) in those games. Philadelphia has faced four poor rush defenses, and averaged 27 points per game in those games. The Philly offense has been on fire over their last six games, scoring 28, 33, 26, 36, 34 and 28 points. I just don’t see anyway they don’t get at least 28 points in this game. Like I said last week, their offense is so good right now, their defense gives up points just because. The average points scored in the NFL are 42 and we have two below average defenses and one above average offense. So, all we need here is an average scoring game, which we’ve normally seen in Philadelphia games as of late. Final numbers suggest 49 points (all games), 51 points (last five games) and 39 points (home/away games). I like the over in this game and will lean with Washington to stay within the number at home. PHILADELPHIA 28 WASHINGTON 24
St Louis –10 DETROIT 46
I don’t expect the Rams to suffer their normal road woes here. They are in a dome against a much inferior team in the Lions. The Rams might be without Issac Bruce again, which could hamper their offense a little. The Rams offense is slightly above average, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.4 yppl but their defense has been well below average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. It’s been the rush defense, which has failed the Rams, allowing 5.8 ypr against 4.6 ypr. But, it’s doubtful the Lions can take advantage of that, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. And on offense, the Rams have been solid with their passing game, averaging 6.7 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games and that should play just perfect against a Lions pass defense, which is allowing 8.0 yps against 7.0 yps. Don’t be too fooled by the Lions cover last week. Their only two scores came on a punt return and by the defense. For the game, they were out gained 384 yards to 106 yards and 5.4 yppl to 2.6 yppl. At least they were balanced, gaining 53 yards each running and passing. Detroit does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY). Final numbers suggest the Rams by four points (all games), 6.5 points (last five games) and by 4.5 points (home/away games). The situation leans towards Detroit so I will lean that way, reluctantly. ST LOUIS 27 DETROIT 18
CINCINNATI –7.5 Cleveland 40.5
Is there any reason to think Cincinnati, who needs a win to have a chance at the playoffs, can cover this game? Cincinnati has won eight games this year. None have been by more than eight points. Over the last five games, Cincinnati is allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.5 yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass, allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 6.7 yps against 6.3 yps. The Cleveland offense has been below average all season long, and is averaging just 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. The Cleveland defense has played well this year, allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl and they’ll face a tough Cincinnati offense, who is averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. That’s above average, but well below their season long average of 5.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 305-219-11 (18-12-1 TY) and they qualify in a similar contrary situation, which is 162-109-4. Cleveland is also a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY). Cleveland’s poor defensive performance last week does qualify them in a negative late season situation, which is a 76-34-2 play against Cleveland here. Cleveland has lost three games this year by more than seven points and all of those losses were to teams with winning percentages of .600 or higher. Final numbers suggest Cincinnati by six points (all games), by 8.5 points (last five games) and by three points (home/away games). I think Cleveland is the obvious side here. CINCINNATI 23 CLEVELAND 17
TENNESSEE –7 Tampa Bay 41.5
One thing I love is when teams win and lose in false fashion the week before. That usually provides the bettor with great value. The other area where a bettor can generate great value is when they find a team who is playing with need, which generally causes them to be laying more points than they should. That’s exactly what we have this week with Tennessee and Tampa Bay. TB lost to Atlanta last week but their numbers were very impressive. First, Atlanta scored 14 points either directly from turnovers or plays that gave them the ball inside TB’s 10 yard line. Yes, TB probably gained some of their yards in garbage time. For the game, they gained 440 yards at 6.3 yppl. Take out a 76 yard pass play, and it averages out to 5.3 yppl. Most impressive, which gets lost when you see Atlanta scored 30 points, is they only gained 267 yards at 4.7 yppl. So, TB played solid defense. It was simply four interceptions that did them in. This week they get Tennessee, who made a great last game drive last week to win against Houston. But, the Tennessee defense allowed Houston to average 6.2 yppl, including 5.1 ypr and 6.7 yps. Tennessee was incredibly hot early in the year, but they have cooled off tremendously over their last six games, failing to win any of them by more than seven points. The match-up in this game is also very intriguing. TB is averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, which includes throwing the ball for 6.5 yps against 6.4 yps. So, they can throw the ball and they will face a Tennessee defense, which has been poor against the pass all year, including allowing 6.6 yps against 5.0 yps over their last five games. Tennessee does throw the ball well, averaging 6.6 yps against 5.7 yps over their last five games but they’ll face a TB defense, which is allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.1 yps over their last five games. Tennessee has allowed at least 24 points in each of their last five games. That doesn’t bode well against a TB team who has allowed more than 24 points only twice this year and one of those was 27 points to Carolina. If TB is able to get 24 points, it’ll take more than 31 points for them not to cover this game. I just don’t see a Tennessee offense, which is banged up, getting that many points. They have only scored more than 31 points in one of their past eight games. TB qualifies in a bounce back situation in this game, which is 71-41-2. They also qualify in another bounce back situation, which is 122-67-4. TB qualifies in a negative situation, based on their poor defense last week, which is a 76-34-2 play against them here. But, Tennessee qualifies in a letdown situation, which is one of the best situations that I have. That situation is now 109-47-4. It played on Atlanta last week, but Atlanta didn’t qualify in the better subset, which is 92-24-2 (3-1 TY). It won with Cleveland against Denver a few weeks back and with Atlanta at the Giants about a month ago. So, it has held up when most people didn’t think the teams that qualified had a chance. And if our play against team (Tennessee) is at .600 or better, the situation improves to a remarkable 61-12-2. That situation is simply too strong to pass up. I also have a play on the over in this game, which is a 77-42-2 situation. I’ll pass on the total, although I think it has a chance because both teams throw the ball well and the Tennessee defense isn’t playing well lately. Final numbers suggest Tennessee by five points (all games), by 2.5 points (last five games) and by 1.5 points (home/away games). Final totals suggest about 40 points (all games), 52 points (last five games) and 36 points (home/away games). TB is now 11-1-1 as a dog of more than three points since 1997 (regular season). Way too much value and great situations to pass this play up. TENNESSEE 27 TAMPA BAY 26
ATLANTA –3 Jacksonville 43.5
I don’t have any situations on either team here. Jacksonville does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, but none of the subsets, and the situation is basically, a .500 situation without the subsets. But, I clearly don’t understand the line on this game. Yes, Vick is back, but the Atlanta final score last week was very misleading. They took advantage of four interceptions, which resulted in 14 points directly or indirectly. Jacksonville certainly has something to play for as they are finishing the season strongly and would like nothing other than to go out a winner in this game. They have won three of their last four games. Vick might be back but he doesn’t play defense for Atlanta and Jacksonville is superior on the defensive side of the ball and getting points to boot. The final numbers from last week’s games against NO are a bit misleading as well. They show Jacksonville out gaining NO 374 yards to 350 yards and 5.9 yppl against 5.5 yppl. But, take out the junk 75 yard touchdown at the end of the game and the numbers read 275 yards and 4.4 yppl. Those numbers tell a much different story. Jacksonville is averaging 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.3 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games. That offense will take on an Atlanta team who is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including 4.2 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.9 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is averaging 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games and they face a Jacksonville defense, which is allowing just 4.2 yppl against 5.8 yppl. Think about whom Jacksonville has played this year, yet their numbers continue to be impressive. I’ve been talking all year about Jacksonville out gaining and out averaging their opponents but losing the games because of turnovers. They finally started playing teams they can compete with and that turned around. Earlier in the year, they played Indianapolis twice, Tennessee twice, Carolina, Miami, Baltimore, New England and Tampa Bay. Final numbers suggest a pick ‘em (all games), Jacksonville by 4.5 points (last five games) and a pick ‘em (home/away games). JACKSONVILLE 27 ATLANTA 16
MIAMI –4 NY Jets 37.5
Here’s one of those games I could care less about. The game means nothing and involves two teams who disappointed their fans this year. Both defenses have been above average over their last five games, while the Jets offense has also been above average and Miami’s offense has been below average over their last five games. The Jets do qualify in a contrary situation, which is 305-219-11 (18-12-1 TY) and another contrary situation, which is 111-58-6 (5-3-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Miami by 3.5 points (all games), by seven points (last five games) and the Jets by 2.5 points (home/away games). MIAMI 20 NY JETS 17
Dallas –2 NEW ORLEANS 39
NO qualifies in some quality situations this week but I have a hard time playing them for three reasons. First, this team has been known to pack it in when things don’t go their way. Second, they have numerous injuries, which will probably result in some key starters missing this game, including Joe Horn. Third, their rush defense, as Jack Del Rio suggested this week, is horrendous. They are allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr over their last five games and 6.2 yps against 5.8 yps over that same time period, for a total of 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The offense has been solid, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps for a total of 5.7 yppl against 4.6 yppl. They’ll face a Dallas offense, which is average at best, gaining 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl and a Dallas defense, which is just above average, at best. The defense is allowing 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games. Dallas does qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 99-52-4 play against situation. And, NO qualifies in a last home game situation, which is 65-33-4. Final numbers suggest NO by two points (all games), by 9.5 points (last five games) and by .5 point (home/away games). Still, with a bad defense and the key injuries, I will pass on this play. DALLAS 21 NEW ORLEANS 20
KANSAS CITY –10 Chicago 45
Here is another game where injuries could play an important role. The Bears are without Justin Gage and Dez White this week, depleting much of their receiver corps. KC was ripped last week at Minnesota, allowing the Vikings to gain 469 yards at 6.6 yppl. They allowed the Vikings to rush for 223 yards at 5.7 ypr and throw for another 246 yards at 7.7 yps. The Bears faced a similar bad rush defense last week in Washington, and gained 191 yards at 4.8 ypr. They could do the same here seeing Detroit gained over 100 yards a few weeks back at KC. Over the last five games, Chicago is averaging just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 4.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The defense has played well, allowing just 5.1 yppl against 5.4 yppl. They’ll face a KC offense, which is averaging 6.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl. KC has been just average rushing the ball on the road but above average at home and the Bears passing offense has really suffered on the road. KC does qualify in a negative momentum situation based on their poor defensive effort last week, which is 82-45-5. That situation is only 1-7 this year and played on Detroit two weeks ago here and lost. KC qualifies in a last home game situation, which is a 29-9 play. With the injuries and the lack of a good offense, along with Grossman getting his first road start in a hostile environment, I find it hard to believe Chicago can keep it competitive here. Final numbers suggest KC by 14 points (all games), by five points (last five games) and by 16.5 points (home/away games). KANSAS CITY 33 CHICAGO 17
Indianapolis –7 HOUSTON 44.5
Houston played a competitive game last week against Tennessee before finally losing by three, 24-27. But, a quick look at their home games this year, and it figured they would be competitive last week and should be again this week. Houston has now played seven home games this year, and since their 14-42 debacle in their first home game against KC, they have not lost a home game by more than five points this year. That includes games against Jacksonville, Carolina, New England, Tennessee and the Jets. So, they have played some good teams in that bunch. For Indy, it’s tough laying a bunch of points on the road with a poor defense. Indy has played seven games on the road this year and won just one game by more than seven points. It’s tough to even mention the Houston offensive numbers because they suffered through injuries for a good part of the year, but they appear to be healthy again and it showed last week. They gained 326 yards at 6.2 yppl, including averaging 5.1 ypr and 6.7 yps. They also allowed 450 yards at 6.3 yppl, including allowing an average of 5.2 ypr and 7.4 yps. The defense hasn’t been good this year and Houston has allowed 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, including 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.0 yps. Pass defense has been a problem for Houston all year long and it figures to be a problem in this game as well. Indy is averaging 6.1 yps against 5.6 yps and 4.1 ypr against 3.6 ypr over their last five games. The Indy defense has actually played better over their last five games, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl, but they are still allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr for the season. Indy has only faced two poor defenses on the road this year and they scored 55 points at NO and 29 points at Tennessee. Houston has faced three poor defenses at home this year and scored 14 against Kansas City, 17 against Atlanta and 24 against Tennessee. Houston was able to score 27 points against a poor Cincinnati defense on the road and 20 against this Indy defense on the road earlier in the year. I don’t think they’ll have a problem getting to the 20 point mark in this game and Indy has scored at least 29 points against every poor defense they have faced this year, scoring 33, 31 and 38 at home against poor defenses. This game is being played indoors, which should only help the Indy offense. Houston does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY). Final numbers suggest Indy by 8.5 points (all games), by 7.5 points (last five games) and by 4.5 points (home/away games). I like the over in this game and the final numbers suggest about 50 points (all games), 41 points (last five games – remember Houston played without their starting qb and running back for two of those games) and about 52 points (home/away games). INDIANAPOLIS 32 HOUSTON 27
Carolina –5.5 NY GIANTS 39
This is a game I could care less about and it appears so do the Giants based on their play over the last seven weeks. I don’t have any situations applying to either team here. Carolina continues to not run the ball well, but they are still throwing the ball with respectability and the Giants can’t defend the pass, with a depleted secondary. Carolina may rest some players here, making this prediction even harder to figure. Throwing out the numbers is somewhat worthless, because of the Giant injuries. I will side with the team who is actually still playing with some passion. CAROLINA 21 NY GIANTS 10
Minnesota –7.5 ARIZONA 45
I won with the Vikings last week in an easy win against Kansas City. That was the first time I had sided with the Vikings since back in week three when they covered at Detroit. Since then I have gone against the Vikings five times in their last six games and won four of those five games, including three road games. Once again, a poor defense, is being asked to lay a lot of points on the road against a team who has played well at home. This play on Arizona would be stronger if Arizona qualified in some of my fundamental rushing situations, but they don’t, so it won’t be quite as strong as I would like. But, just like the Chicago game two weeks ago, they play on the road against a team who has played very well at home this year. Arizona has played some quality teams at home and either defeated them or played them tough. Arizona lost their first home game this year, 0-38 to Seattle, but in that game, they lost starting qb Jeff Blake midway though the game and Josh McCown was thrown into action and a Arizona suffered a –4 in the turnover ratio. But, since then, they have defeated GB by seven, lost to Baltimore by eight, defeated SF by three, defeated Cincinnati by three, lost in OT to the Rams by three, and lost to Carolina by three. At least four, if not five of those teams, are better or as good as Minnesota. For the Vikings, it’s been four straight road losses in a row to the likes of SD, Oakland, St. Louis and Chicago. The Vikings defense has played better over their last five games, allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl, but at the same time, their offense has become mediocre as well, averaging just 5.7 yppl against 5.6 yppl. They’ll face an Arizona team whose offense is below average, gaining just 4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games and allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl. But, Arizona is a different team at home than on the road. At home, they are average rushing the ball, gaining 4.3 ypr against 4.3 ypr and the defense is about average as well, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Those numbers become much more competitive against a Vikings defense, which is allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl on defense on the road. Poor teams (.200 or worse) as home dogs of more than five points against winning teams are now 57-21-1 (3-1-1 TY). Arizona also qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 61-33-2. Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY), including a subset, which is 129-69-3. And, once again, we have our play on a team not covering the spread against a team covering the spread. That situation is 277-186-21. Final numbers suggest Minnesota by six points (all games), by 2.5 points (last five games) and Arizona by 1.5 points (home/away games). The value and the situations clearly favor Arizona in this game. MINNESOTA 24 ARIZONA 23
GREEN BAY –6.5 Denver 42.5
Denver will rest Clinton Portis in this game and possibly other starters as well who are banged up. Denver also lost at least one more starter on defense in last week’s win at Indy. For the Packers, it will be very hard to play with the same emotion they played with last week. There is simply no way they can get back up like they were last week. They just have to be focused and get the job done. If they can get into the playoffs, the bonding that came about last week could take this team far. The Packers offense is coming along just fine over the last five games, averaging 6.0 yppl against 5.5 yppl, including 8.3 yps against 6.7 yps. The running game continues to struggle as of late, averaging just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr. The defense has played terrific over their last five games, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including 3.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.5 yps. And at home this year, their defense is allowing just 3.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr. That is significant when going against a Denver offense, which is averaging 5.5 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games. The Broncos defense has been just average over their last five games, allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl. That includes allowing 5.7 yps against 5.6 yps, which might play right into the hot hand of the Packers passing offense. The linemaker knows GB needs this game, and thus, has asked you to lay more than they should be laying in this game. But, I still don’t think that will matter, as I think GB gets the win and cover here, with Denver getting ready for the playoffs and resting some key personnel. Not that it matters but back in 1996 Denver came to GB and benched many of their starters and lost that game 6-41 as 10 point dogs. Denver had everything wrapped up in the AFC and were getting ready for the playoffs. That’s the year Denver lost at home to Jacksonville and GB won the SB. If this line were –3 or less, GB would qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 68-23-6, and if the line were four or less, they would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-59-8 and if they are laying six or less, they would qualify in a last home game situation, which is 65-33-4. The point being GB is close to qualifying in some strong situations, but the line a little to high. Final numbers favor GB by 3.5 points (all games), by 5.5 points (last five games) and by 2.5 points (home/away games). I’ll side with GB because they are playing so well and the situations are close to making them a best bet. GREEN BAY 24 DENVER 14
SAN DIEGO –4 Oakland 45.5
One more worthless game on the board. I have numerous situations applying to both teams here, which negate both sides. Final numbers suggest SD by 4.5 points (all games), by six points (last five games) and by one point (home/away games). SD’s offense and defense are better over the last five games and I’ll reluctantly lean their way. SAN DIEGO 26 OAKLAND 20
BALTIMORE –7.5 Pittsburgh 38.5
I don’t have any situations applying to either team here, but I’ll lean towards Baltimore laying points with the better overall offense and defense. Over their last five games, the Baltimore offense has been average, gaining 5.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl, while the Pittsburgh defense has been slightly above average during that time. The Pittsburgh offense has been below average and I don’t see them doing much in this game against an above average Baltimore defense. This game does qualify in an under situation, which is 305-230-11 (19-14 TY) and my numbers suggest only about 38 points (all games), 35 points (last five games) and 33 points (home/away games). The under might be a good play here. BALTIMORE 23 PITTSBURGH 10
BEST BETS
YTD 57-40-5 +30.30%
3% SAN FRANCISCO PK
3% TAMPA BAY +7
3% ARIZONA +7.5
2% JACKSONVILLE +3
2% PHL/WASH OVER 41
2% INDIANAPOLIS/HOUSTON OVER 44.5
Happy Holidays to everyone!!
A 2-2 record last week plus a winner on the strong opinion total in the Philadelphia game. The last seven weeks have now produced a 33-18-3 65% record. And, the season record is still at 59%, so it’s remains a very strong season in the NFL.
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 124-105-9 54% over the first sixteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it’s more important to look at each team’s last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
Many games this week mean absolutely nothing so some of the analysis will be brief in those games.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND –8 Buffalo 33.5
My two losses last week were on Buffalo and against New England. Despite getting five interceptions and being +4 in the turnover ratio, NE probably deserved to cover that game (even though a successful two point conversion would have pushed the game) as they out gained the Jets 5.4 yppl to 4.4 yppl. As for Buffalo, their defense played just as I anticipated, allowing Miami just 169 total yards and 3.0 yppl. The problem for Buffalo, as it has been all year, was gaining just 177 total yards at 2.9 yppl and losing three fumbles and being –2 in the turnover ratio, including a costly 74 yard interception return for a touchdown, which sealed the game. The Buffalo defense has played well all year long and well on the road as well, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The problem has been the offense, which has gained just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl on the road and 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games overall. For NE, their defense continues to play just as well as Buffalo, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl at home and 4.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. On offense, NE has played worse at home but I think that’s probably a product of the weather and an aberration, rather than anything significant. Over their last five games, they are averaging 4.6 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but throwing the ball for 5.8 yps against 5.5 yps. Because NE can at least move the ball somewhat, compared to the Buffalo defense, that usually means they are getting better field position and allowing their defense to tee off on Buffalo and Drew Bledsoe. That is probably the difference in this game. Buffalo qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY) and they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 239-168-14. NE qualifies in a last home game situation, which plays on good teams, which is 29-9. Final numbers favor NE by 8.5 points (all games), by four points (last five games) and by 9.5 points (home/away games). Final totals suggest 32 points (all games), 40 points (last five games) and 30 points (home/away games). I’ll lean with Buffalo because of the situations. NEW ENGLAND 19 BUFFALO 13
SAN FRANCISCO Pk Seattle 44
The Seattle boxscore from last week was pretty interesting, considering they won the game rather handily (although the cover was in doubt and Arizona probably deserved to cover) but Seattle was actually –3 in the turnover ratio, which obviously helped Arizona stay in the game, cover wise. San Francisco played a terrific game, especially when you consider they lost Owens in the second quarter. SF out gained Philly 417 yards to 293 yards but the yards per play were even at 5.7 yppl for each team. SF sacked McNabb the second most times he has been sacked in a game this year, getting to him five times. It’s been well documented about the Seattle road woes. I played Seattle two weeks ago, when they were at St. Louis, but they were getting seven points. Seattle has been competitive in all but two of their road games, so getting seven was fine. But, they are a pick ‘em in this game, which might be asking too much, especially against a 49er team who has played terrific at home this year and doesn’t appear to have quit. SF has too many young players playing for jobs and even Garcia is playing for his job as is Kevan Barlow. Throw out the game against Arizona and Seattle has allowed at least 27 points in every other road game this year (six games). Now, go the other way and note SF hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any home game this year. So, if Seattle seems predetermined to allow at least 27 points and SF doesn’t allow more than 17 points, that’s going to make it awful hard for Seattle to win this game. Meanwhile, for SF, they have scored at least 24 points in all but one home game this year (six games). It certainly seems likely that SF will get at least 24-27 points in this game. Seattle has only scored more than 24 points in two road games and one of those games was against Arizona, which really doesn’t count. Seattle has played well in their last five games, gaining 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, throwing for 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps, but that will play right into the hands of SF, who is allowing just 5.2 yppl against 5.6 yppl and 5.7 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. Going the other way, the SF offense is playing very well right now, averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, including running the ball for 5.1 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle has played good rush defense lately, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr but they are allowing 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 99-52-4 and plays against Seattle here. San Francisco also qualifies in a last home game situation, which is a 65-33-4 play. The 49ers also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-59-8. SF would also qualify in four more very profitable situations if they were to become a dog in this game. Final numbers suggest SF by 5.5 points (all games), three points (last five games) and by 13.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 305-230-11. That same situation played the under in the SF game last week and I ignored it because of the great situation I thought SF and Philly were in last week. This week, the numbers suggest a high scoring game, which is enough to keep me off the under, but I will still lean that way because SF has played so well at home on defense and Seattle has struggled some on the road. SAN FRANCISCO 27 SEATTLE 16
Philadelphia –6.5 WASHINGTON 40.5
This game means an awful lot to Philadelphia as a win still gives them a shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss could cost them the division, which appeared to be theirs for the taking just a week ago. The Philly offense continues to roll, and they averaged 5.7 yppl in their loss last week. They are now averaging 6.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, which includes, running for 5.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr and throwing for 7.1 yps against 5.5 yps. For Washington, their defense has played better over their last five games, allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but their rush defense has been terrible, allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The Philly defense has been below average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, including a staggering 5.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr. They allowed SF to rush for 209 yards at 5.1 ypr last week. Washington isn’t playing well on offense, averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. But, at home, they are averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and the passing game is, at least, respectable, averaging 5.6 yps against 5.8 yps. I don’t have any situations on either side in this game. Final numbers suggest Philly by three points (all games), by 5.5 points (last five games) and by 11.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in a total play, which is 77-42-2 (4-1 TY) and plays on the over in this game. Washington has played five teams this year that have poor rush defenses, and they have averaged 24 points (21 in three home games) in those games. Philadelphia has faced four poor rush defenses, and averaged 27 points per game in those games. The Philly offense has been on fire over their last six games, scoring 28, 33, 26, 36, 34 and 28 points. I just don’t see anyway they don’t get at least 28 points in this game. Like I said last week, their offense is so good right now, their defense gives up points just because. The average points scored in the NFL are 42 and we have two below average defenses and one above average offense. So, all we need here is an average scoring game, which we’ve normally seen in Philadelphia games as of late. Final numbers suggest 49 points (all games), 51 points (last five games) and 39 points (home/away games). I like the over in this game and will lean with Washington to stay within the number at home. PHILADELPHIA 28 WASHINGTON 24
St Louis –10 DETROIT 46
I don’t expect the Rams to suffer their normal road woes here. They are in a dome against a much inferior team in the Lions. The Rams might be without Issac Bruce again, which could hamper their offense a little. The Rams offense is slightly above average, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.4 yppl but their defense has been well below average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. It’s been the rush defense, which has failed the Rams, allowing 5.8 ypr against 4.6 ypr. But, it’s doubtful the Lions can take advantage of that, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. And on offense, the Rams have been solid with their passing game, averaging 6.7 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games and that should play just perfect against a Lions pass defense, which is allowing 8.0 yps against 7.0 yps. Don’t be too fooled by the Lions cover last week. Their only two scores came on a punt return and by the defense. For the game, they were out gained 384 yards to 106 yards and 5.4 yppl to 2.6 yppl. At least they were balanced, gaining 53 yards each running and passing. Detroit does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY). Final numbers suggest the Rams by four points (all games), 6.5 points (last five games) and by 4.5 points (home/away games). The situation leans towards Detroit so I will lean that way, reluctantly. ST LOUIS 27 DETROIT 18
CINCINNATI –7.5 Cleveland 40.5
Is there any reason to think Cincinnati, who needs a win to have a chance at the playoffs, can cover this game? Cincinnati has won eight games this year. None have been by more than eight points. Over the last five games, Cincinnati is allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.5 yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass, allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 6.7 yps against 6.3 yps. The Cleveland offense has been below average all season long, and is averaging just 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. The Cleveland defense has played well this year, allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl and they’ll face a tough Cincinnati offense, who is averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. That’s above average, but well below their season long average of 5.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 305-219-11 (18-12-1 TY) and they qualify in a similar contrary situation, which is 162-109-4. Cleveland is also a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY). Cleveland’s poor defensive performance last week does qualify them in a negative late season situation, which is a 76-34-2 play against Cleveland here. Cleveland has lost three games this year by more than seven points and all of those losses were to teams with winning percentages of .600 or higher. Final numbers suggest Cincinnati by six points (all games), by 8.5 points (last five games) and by three points (home/away games). I think Cleveland is the obvious side here. CINCINNATI 23 CLEVELAND 17
TENNESSEE –7 Tampa Bay 41.5
One thing I love is when teams win and lose in false fashion the week before. That usually provides the bettor with great value. The other area where a bettor can generate great value is when they find a team who is playing with need, which generally causes them to be laying more points than they should. That’s exactly what we have this week with Tennessee and Tampa Bay. TB lost to Atlanta last week but their numbers were very impressive. First, Atlanta scored 14 points either directly from turnovers or plays that gave them the ball inside TB’s 10 yard line. Yes, TB probably gained some of their yards in garbage time. For the game, they gained 440 yards at 6.3 yppl. Take out a 76 yard pass play, and it averages out to 5.3 yppl. Most impressive, which gets lost when you see Atlanta scored 30 points, is they only gained 267 yards at 4.7 yppl. So, TB played solid defense. It was simply four interceptions that did them in. This week they get Tennessee, who made a great last game drive last week to win against Houston. But, the Tennessee defense allowed Houston to average 6.2 yppl, including 5.1 ypr and 6.7 yps. Tennessee was incredibly hot early in the year, but they have cooled off tremendously over their last six games, failing to win any of them by more than seven points. The match-up in this game is also very intriguing. TB is averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, which includes throwing the ball for 6.5 yps against 6.4 yps. So, they can throw the ball and they will face a Tennessee defense, which has been poor against the pass all year, including allowing 6.6 yps against 5.0 yps over their last five games. Tennessee does throw the ball well, averaging 6.6 yps against 5.7 yps over their last five games but they’ll face a TB defense, which is allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.1 yps over their last five games. Tennessee has allowed at least 24 points in each of their last five games. That doesn’t bode well against a TB team who has allowed more than 24 points only twice this year and one of those was 27 points to Carolina. If TB is able to get 24 points, it’ll take more than 31 points for them not to cover this game. I just don’t see a Tennessee offense, which is banged up, getting that many points. They have only scored more than 31 points in one of their past eight games. TB qualifies in a bounce back situation in this game, which is 71-41-2. They also qualify in another bounce back situation, which is 122-67-4. TB qualifies in a negative situation, based on their poor defense last week, which is a 76-34-2 play against them here. But, Tennessee qualifies in a letdown situation, which is one of the best situations that I have. That situation is now 109-47-4. It played on Atlanta last week, but Atlanta didn’t qualify in the better subset, which is 92-24-2 (3-1 TY). It won with Cleveland against Denver a few weeks back and with Atlanta at the Giants about a month ago. So, it has held up when most people didn’t think the teams that qualified had a chance. And if our play against team (Tennessee) is at .600 or better, the situation improves to a remarkable 61-12-2. That situation is simply too strong to pass up. I also have a play on the over in this game, which is a 77-42-2 situation. I’ll pass on the total, although I think it has a chance because both teams throw the ball well and the Tennessee defense isn’t playing well lately. Final numbers suggest Tennessee by five points (all games), by 2.5 points (last five games) and by 1.5 points (home/away games). Final totals suggest about 40 points (all games), 52 points (last five games) and 36 points (home/away games). TB is now 11-1-1 as a dog of more than three points since 1997 (regular season). Way too much value and great situations to pass this play up. TENNESSEE 27 TAMPA BAY 26
ATLANTA –3 Jacksonville 43.5
I don’t have any situations on either team here. Jacksonville does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, but none of the subsets, and the situation is basically, a .500 situation without the subsets. But, I clearly don’t understand the line on this game. Yes, Vick is back, but the Atlanta final score last week was very misleading. They took advantage of four interceptions, which resulted in 14 points directly or indirectly. Jacksonville certainly has something to play for as they are finishing the season strongly and would like nothing other than to go out a winner in this game. They have won three of their last four games. Vick might be back but he doesn’t play defense for Atlanta and Jacksonville is superior on the defensive side of the ball and getting points to boot. The final numbers from last week’s games against NO are a bit misleading as well. They show Jacksonville out gaining NO 374 yards to 350 yards and 5.9 yppl against 5.5 yppl. But, take out the junk 75 yard touchdown at the end of the game and the numbers read 275 yards and 4.4 yppl. Those numbers tell a much different story. Jacksonville is averaging 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.3 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games. That offense will take on an Atlanta team who is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including 4.2 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.9 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is averaging 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games and they face a Jacksonville defense, which is allowing just 4.2 yppl against 5.8 yppl. Think about whom Jacksonville has played this year, yet their numbers continue to be impressive. I’ve been talking all year about Jacksonville out gaining and out averaging their opponents but losing the games because of turnovers. They finally started playing teams they can compete with and that turned around. Earlier in the year, they played Indianapolis twice, Tennessee twice, Carolina, Miami, Baltimore, New England and Tampa Bay. Final numbers suggest a pick ‘em (all games), Jacksonville by 4.5 points (last five games) and a pick ‘em (home/away games). JACKSONVILLE 27 ATLANTA 16
MIAMI –4 NY Jets 37.5
Here’s one of those games I could care less about. The game means nothing and involves two teams who disappointed their fans this year. Both defenses have been above average over their last five games, while the Jets offense has also been above average and Miami’s offense has been below average over their last five games. The Jets do qualify in a contrary situation, which is 305-219-11 (18-12-1 TY) and another contrary situation, which is 111-58-6 (5-3-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Miami by 3.5 points (all games), by seven points (last five games) and the Jets by 2.5 points (home/away games). MIAMI 20 NY JETS 17
Dallas –2 NEW ORLEANS 39
NO qualifies in some quality situations this week but I have a hard time playing them for three reasons. First, this team has been known to pack it in when things don’t go their way. Second, they have numerous injuries, which will probably result in some key starters missing this game, including Joe Horn. Third, their rush defense, as Jack Del Rio suggested this week, is horrendous. They are allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr over their last five games and 6.2 yps against 5.8 yps over that same time period, for a total of 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The offense has been solid, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps for a total of 5.7 yppl against 4.6 yppl. They’ll face a Dallas offense, which is average at best, gaining 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl and a Dallas defense, which is just above average, at best. The defense is allowing 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games. Dallas does qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 99-52-4 play against situation. And, NO qualifies in a last home game situation, which is 65-33-4. Final numbers suggest NO by two points (all games), by 9.5 points (last five games) and by .5 point (home/away games). Still, with a bad defense and the key injuries, I will pass on this play. DALLAS 21 NEW ORLEANS 20
KANSAS CITY –10 Chicago 45
Here is another game where injuries could play an important role. The Bears are without Justin Gage and Dez White this week, depleting much of their receiver corps. KC was ripped last week at Minnesota, allowing the Vikings to gain 469 yards at 6.6 yppl. They allowed the Vikings to rush for 223 yards at 5.7 ypr and throw for another 246 yards at 7.7 yps. The Bears faced a similar bad rush defense last week in Washington, and gained 191 yards at 4.8 ypr. They could do the same here seeing Detroit gained over 100 yards a few weeks back at KC. Over the last five games, Chicago is averaging just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 4.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The defense has played well, allowing just 5.1 yppl against 5.4 yppl. They’ll face a KC offense, which is averaging 6.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl. KC has been just average rushing the ball on the road but above average at home and the Bears passing offense has really suffered on the road. KC does qualify in a negative momentum situation based on their poor defensive effort last week, which is 82-45-5. That situation is only 1-7 this year and played on Detroit two weeks ago here and lost. KC qualifies in a last home game situation, which is a 29-9 play. With the injuries and the lack of a good offense, along with Grossman getting his first road start in a hostile environment, I find it hard to believe Chicago can keep it competitive here. Final numbers suggest KC by 14 points (all games), by five points (last five games) and by 16.5 points (home/away games). KANSAS CITY 33 CHICAGO 17
Indianapolis –7 HOUSTON 44.5
Houston played a competitive game last week against Tennessee before finally losing by three, 24-27. But, a quick look at their home games this year, and it figured they would be competitive last week and should be again this week. Houston has now played seven home games this year, and since their 14-42 debacle in their first home game against KC, they have not lost a home game by more than five points this year. That includes games against Jacksonville, Carolina, New England, Tennessee and the Jets. So, they have played some good teams in that bunch. For Indy, it’s tough laying a bunch of points on the road with a poor defense. Indy has played seven games on the road this year and won just one game by more than seven points. It’s tough to even mention the Houston offensive numbers because they suffered through injuries for a good part of the year, but they appear to be healthy again and it showed last week. They gained 326 yards at 6.2 yppl, including averaging 5.1 ypr and 6.7 yps. They also allowed 450 yards at 6.3 yppl, including allowing an average of 5.2 ypr and 7.4 yps. The defense hasn’t been good this year and Houston has allowed 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, including 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.0 yps. Pass defense has been a problem for Houston all year long and it figures to be a problem in this game as well. Indy is averaging 6.1 yps against 5.6 yps and 4.1 ypr against 3.6 ypr over their last five games. The Indy defense has actually played better over their last five games, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl, but they are still allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr for the season. Indy has only faced two poor defenses on the road this year and they scored 55 points at NO and 29 points at Tennessee. Houston has faced three poor defenses at home this year and scored 14 against Kansas City, 17 against Atlanta and 24 against Tennessee. Houston was able to score 27 points against a poor Cincinnati defense on the road and 20 against this Indy defense on the road earlier in the year. I don’t think they’ll have a problem getting to the 20 point mark in this game and Indy has scored at least 29 points against every poor defense they have faced this year, scoring 33, 31 and 38 at home against poor defenses. This game is being played indoors, which should only help the Indy offense. Houston does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY). Final numbers suggest Indy by 8.5 points (all games), by 7.5 points (last five games) and by 4.5 points (home/away games). I like the over in this game and the final numbers suggest about 50 points (all games), 41 points (last five games – remember Houston played without their starting qb and running back for two of those games) and about 52 points (home/away games). INDIANAPOLIS 32 HOUSTON 27
Carolina –5.5 NY GIANTS 39
This is a game I could care less about and it appears so do the Giants based on their play over the last seven weeks. I don’t have any situations applying to either team here. Carolina continues to not run the ball well, but they are still throwing the ball with respectability and the Giants can’t defend the pass, with a depleted secondary. Carolina may rest some players here, making this prediction even harder to figure. Throwing out the numbers is somewhat worthless, because of the Giant injuries. I will side with the team who is actually still playing with some passion. CAROLINA 21 NY GIANTS 10
Minnesota –7.5 ARIZONA 45
I won with the Vikings last week in an easy win against Kansas City. That was the first time I had sided with the Vikings since back in week three when they covered at Detroit. Since then I have gone against the Vikings five times in their last six games and won four of those five games, including three road games. Once again, a poor defense, is being asked to lay a lot of points on the road against a team who has played well at home. This play on Arizona would be stronger if Arizona qualified in some of my fundamental rushing situations, but they don’t, so it won’t be quite as strong as I would like. But, just like the Chicago game two weeks ago, they play on the road against a team who has played very well at home this year. Arizona has played some quality teams at home and either defeated them or played them tough. Arizona lost their first home game this year, 0-38 to Seattle, but in that game, they lost starting qb Jeff Blake midway though the game and Josh McCown was thrown into action and a Arizona suffered a –4 in the turnover ratio. But, since then, they have defeated GB by seven, lost to Baltimore by eight, defeated SF by three, defeated Cincinnati by three, lost in OT to the Rams by three, and lost to Carolina by three. At least four, if not five of those teams, are better or as good as Minnesota. For the Vikings, it’s been four straight road losses in a row to the likes of SD, Oakland, St. Louis and Chicago. The Vikings defense has played better over their last five games, allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl, but at the same time, their offense has become mediocre as well, averaging just 5.7 yppl against 5.6 yppl. They’ll face an Arizona team whose offense is below average, gaining just 4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games and allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl. But, Arizona is a different team at home than on the road. At home, they are average rushing the ball, gaining 4.3 ypr against 4.3 ypr and the defense is about average as well, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Those numbers become much more competitive against a Vikings defense, which is allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl on defense on the road. Poor teams (.200 or worse) as home dogs of more than five points against winning teams are now 57-21-1 (3-1-1 TY). Arizona also qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 61-33-2. Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY), including a subset, which is 129-69-3. And, once again, we have our play on a team not covering the spread against a team covering the spread. That situation is 277-186-21. Final numbers suggest Minnesota by six points (all games), by 2.5 points (last five games) and Arizona by 1.5 points (home/away games). The value and the situations clearly favor Arizona in this game. MINNESOTA 24 ARIZONA 23
GREEN BAY –6.5 Denver 42.5
Denver will rest Clinton Portis in this game and possibly other starters as well who are banged up. Denver also lost at least one more starter on defense in last week’s win at Indy. For the Packers, it will be very hard to play with the same emotion they played with last week. There is simply no way they can get back up like they were last week. They just have to be focused and get the job done. If they can get into the playoffs, the bonding that came about last week could take this team far. The Packers offense is coming along just fine over the last five games, averaging 6.0 yppl against 5.5 yppl, including 8.3 yps against 6.7 yps. The running game continues to struggle as of late, averaging just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr. The defense has played terrific over their last five games, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including 3.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.5 yps. And at home this year, their defense is allowing just 3.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr. That is significant when going against a Denver offense, which is averaging 5.5 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games. The Broncos defense has been just average over their last five games, allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl. That includes allowing 5.7 yps against 5.6 yps, which might play right into the hot hand of the Packers passing offense. The linemaker knows GB needs this game, and thus, has asked you to lay more than they should be laying in this game. But, I still don’t think that will matter, as I think GB gets the win and cover here, with Denver getting ready for the playoffs and resting some key personnel. Not that it matters but back in 1996 Denver came to GB and benched many of their starters and lost that game 6-41 as 10 point dogs. Denver had everything wrapped up in the AFC and were getting ready for the playoffs. That’s the year Denver lost at home to Jacksonville and GB won the SB. If this line were –3 or less, GB would qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 68-23-6, and if the line were four or less, they would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-59-8 and if they are laying six or less, they would qualify in a last home game situation, which is 65-33-4. The point being GB is close to qualifying in some strong situations, but the line a little to high. Final numbers favor GB by 3.5 points (all games), by 5.5 points (last five games) and by 2.5 points (home/away games). I’ll side with GB because they are playing so well and the situations are close to making them a best bet. GREEN BAY 24 DENVER 14
SAN DIEGO –4 Oakland 45.5
One more worthless game on the board. I have numerous situations applying to both teams here, which negate both sides. Final numbers suggest SD by 4.5 points (all games), by six points (last five games) and by one point (home/away games). SD’s offense and defense are better over the last five games and I’ll reluctantly lean their way. SAN DIEGO 26 OAKLAND 20
BALTIMORE –7.5 Pittsburgh 38.5
I don’t have any situations applying to either team here, but I’ll lean towards Baltimore laying points with the better overall offense and defense. Over their last five games, the Baltimore offense has been average, gaining 5.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl, while the Pittsburgh defense has been slightly above average during that time. The Pittsburgh offense has been below average and I don’t see them doing much in this game against an above average Baltimore defense. This game does qualify in an under situation, which is 305-230-11 (19-14 TY) and my numbers suggest only about 38 points (all games), 35 points (last five games) and 33 points (home/away games). The under might be a good play here. BALTIMORE 23 PITTSBURGH 10
BEST BETS
YTD 57-40-5 +30.30%
3% SAN FRANCISCO PK
3% TAMPA BAY +7
3% ARIZONA +7.5
2% JACKSONVILLE +3
2% PHL/WASH OVER 41
2% INDIANAPOLIS/HOUSTON OVER 44.5
