Panthers @ Saints
Play: Saints +2
This game provides a good example of a line being too inflated to compensate for the “one team having a lot to play for vs. the team with nothing to play for” variable. Bettors playing this angle are only adding fuel to the fire, and betting on an angle that was compensated for when the line opened. With many people unable to look past this variable, they are missing variables such as the Saints wanting to finish the season with a winning record, the Saints being one of the most dangerous home teams in the league, Brees determined to get the record, and the Panthers coming off a very physical and emotional overtime road loss last week.
In my opinion, the Saints have the best offense in the NFC. It is also an offense that has the highest disparity of productivity and intrinsic worth playing on turf relative to grass. Although the Panthers have a solid defense, it is a defense that has shown some leaks and has a facet that is actually well below average and proved such last week against the Giants. This facet is their run defense, as their trench play has gotten worse as the season progressed. Although the Saints are known for their passing game, they have a very underrated and potent running game that could capitalize on this Panthers weakness, especially since they won’t have the luxury of stacking the box due to the potency of the Saints passing game. This advantage on the ground will open up the pass, and allow the Saints to put forth a well balanced attack that can put up some points against this worn down Panthers defense. Although there is not much to get excited for when the Saints are on defense, the Saints are a defense that is slightly below average against the run and pass, thus lack a glary weakness that could be really picked on against a well balanced offensive attack like the Panthers.
Home field advantage is magnified in this game. The entire NFC South has shown a huge disparity of play on the road relative to at home. This notion holds true especially for these two teams, as they have lost a combined one home loss, while both support a losing road record. The Saints home field edge has also not been fully accounted for by the market place, as they have only been unable to cover one home game as well. The Saints finesse offense is well suited for dome play, therefore making a fundamental home edge accompany the intangible advantages.
Yes, the Panthers have much more to play for than the Saints. However, this notion has been approached with blinders on by many, making the line an inflated one. It is hard to justify making the Saints an underdog at home against anyone, especially a team that put forth a losing road record and went the entire season without beating a team with a winning record on the road. I think the Saints have a good chance not losing by more than three points.
Cowboys @ Eagles
Play: Eagles -1
I said it the entire season, and will conclude with the same notion as well- the Cowboys are one of the most overrated teams in the league, their offense the most overrated offense in the league, and their on field potency is far beneath their paper potency. Their high probability of not making the playoffs comes to no surprise. The Eagles on the other hand have underachieved all season, and are better than their record indicates. Their high probability of not making the playoffs comes to a surprise. What obviously doesn’t come to a surprise is that if you put these two teams together, and value will be found on the Eagles.
The Cowboys proved once again against the Ravens that their offense is very overrated, and their actually production is well below their numerical numbers. A lot of garbage time stats has padded their production and duped the naïve. They have especially struggled against quality defenses, and the Eagles are definitely such. The Eagles ability to stop the run very well will once again put pressure on Romo in a big game, a call that he has consistently been unable to answer. Unfortunately for Romo, the Eagles defense doesn’t stop at the running game, as they have played the pass very well too. They are a much better defense than the one he faced earlier in the season, and the weather variable will also be much less friendly. Expect Johnson to put forth a game plan that attacks Romo’s mistake propensity, something that he must avoid if the Cowboys have a chance to win this game.
The Cowboys defense has gotten progressively better, but still not as good as their counterparts. The Eagles offense has underachieved, but if last week showed anything, is that they have to run the ball more. The Cowboys greatest weakness is their inability to stop the running game, and they will have their hands full with Westbrook. Expect the Eagles running game to take pressure off of McNaab and allow him to work within his means. McNaab has proved better than Romo that he can produce in big games.
Both teams play much better at home, so once again, home field advantage is a huge plus. Unlike the Cowboys, the Eagles have actually held their own against quality teams, and it has been the lesser teams that have given them problems. The Eagles in my opinion, are the better team. Add home field advantage to this notion, and one could tell this line is way off. I will take the Eagles in this one.
Lions @ Packers
Play: Packers -10.5
Last weeks Lions game was inflated to their side as everyone thought that there is no way they go winless the entire season. Their backers were blind sided to the reality of them being one of the worst teams we have ever seen. So how does the market respond? Only to inflate their asking price even more, as they claim that this is their last chance to win, and once ignore how bad they really are.
The Packers have really underachieved this season. They actually have a decent offense and defense, something that is rare for a team with their record. However, their true worth and potency was masked by their difficult schedule and having to play 11 teams this year with a winning record. They only got to play two really bad teams this year, and beat them both up. The Lions are horrible and getting worse. They have the worst defense we may have ever seen, a defense that plays worse on the road and will have their hands full against a Packers offense that has the ability to light up the scoreboard when they are on. Expect the Packers to take their frustrations out on the Lions and put forth an impressive offensive showing that puts pressure on a dormant Lions offense to have to keep pace to cover.
The Lions offense has been nearly as bad as their defense. They have scored more than 21 points just three times this season. The Packers can defend the pass decently which does not bode well for the Lions chances as they will probably be put into a deficit that makes them have to implement a heavy dose of passing. The Lions also lack the running game to take advantage of what the Packers defense does not do well.
Once again, home field advantage is magnified in this game. The Lions are a dome team that will be put into freezing weather. They also have a lot of young players that are not very experienced in these weather conditions.
The odds are very high that we will have a winless team this season. Expect the Lions to fight early on, but their lack of talent will put them into an early deficit. They will slowly face the reality and pack it in. I see the Packers winning this one big.
Bears @ Texans
Play: Bears +3
It looks like the market swept the Texans last week performance under the rug and continue to inflate their line as if they are a legitimately good team. This is also a rare game in which the team with something to play for is coming with a deflated price tag while facing a team with no playoff implications on the line.
After overachieving in a couple of games, the Texans defense once again showed their true worth, as they were dominated by one of the most dormant offenses in the league last week in Oakland. With Orton’s newfound propensity for error, the Bears value is heavily dependent on their ability to establish a running game. Fortunately for their chances this week, they face one of the more inferior run defenses in the league, which should allow Forte to carry the offense and allow Orton to play in the supplemental role he is much better suited for. The Texans are also vulnerable against the pass, and both Olson and Hester pose match up problems for them.
The Texans offense is pretty decent, especially at home. However, they will be outmatched against the Bears defense, which has the team speed to counter the Texans strengths. Although the Texans offense is known for their passing game, it is their running game that has been the catalyst of their upward trending productivity. The Bears have one of the best run defenses in the league, which should slowdown Slanton and put the burden on an inconsistent Schaab to make things happen.
This line is quite perplexing. You have the better team whose playoff hopes are on the line in this game getting points to a team that has been out of the playoff fight for over two months. Yes, the Texans play well at home and are trying to finish out the year with 8 wins. But that simply not enough to warrant laying three. I will gladly take the road dog in this one.
Redskins @ Niners
Play: Redskins +3
The Niners have been one of this years second half pleasant surprises after Hill and Singletary took over. The Redskins have been one of this years second half busts. However, one has to ponder how prevalent these two trends have been, and if they are truly as potent as the market is suggesting they are. After losing by double digits to the Cowboys, the Niners followed up by winning unimpressively against the Bills, beating the Jets at home, putting up just 9 points to the Dolphins, and needing a miracle win against the Rams. The Redskins on the other hand during that duration lost to the Cowboys in a much closer game, won in Seattle, then lost to two top tier teams in the Giants and Ravens, and beat the Eagles. In my opinion, even though these two teams have reversed course from the beginning of the season, not as much as the market would lead one to believe. Also, part of the Niners trend reversal was inspired by trying to get Singletary the job. Not that the job is his, one also has to wonder if the Niners relax a bit. Nonetheless, the underlying fundamentals support the Redskins.
The Niners offense may be less mistake prone with Hill, but they are still struggling to put points on the board. The Redskins defense has held their own during their downward slide, and have a solid enough run defense to limit Gore’s production and put the onus on an uneventful passing game to move the chains. The Redskins corners outclass the Niners receivers, which should once again have the Niners put forth limited production in the air.
The Niners defense has performed decenly of late, but really hasn’t been test much either. The Redskins downward offensive production has been in large part having to play the Cowboys, Giants, Ravens, and Giants defense in four of their last six games. They still have a solid running game that can give the Niners defense problems and allow Campbell to work within his means, something he hasn’t had the luxury of doing in recent games.
Homefield advantage? The Redskins and Niners production disparity at home relative to away has been minimal at berst.
The Redskins have the better offense and defense, and have more to play for with their coach having a question mark over his head and a winning record on sigh with a win. The Niners don’t warrant being favorites here. Taking the points is just a bonus.
Broncos @ Chargers
Play: Broncos +9
I said it all season, and will say it again. The Chargers are pretenders (although they are prone to peaking late in the season, and are a better team now than they were when I was predominately making this statement). Put them in any other division, and this game would be meaningless, and although they would be playing for is to avoid a losing record. To a good extent, you are what you are, and the Chargers are a team with a losing record, and not the team the market suggest they are by putting them at near double digit favorites against the Broncos.
The Chargers defense has improved of late, but still sub par and outclassed by this Broncos offense. They are vulnerable against teams with solid running games as they struggle getting off the field and passing the torch to their offense. Although the Broncos have an injured backfield, they still posses a solid running game that has a huge advantage and can keep the Chargers offense off the field. Their passing game is one of the best in the league, has had past success against the Chargers defense, and should compliment their running game to allow them to move the chains and put up points throughout the game. Although the Chargers offense also outclasses their oppositions defense, their disadvantage on the other side of the ball will cause them to more than likely play flawlessly to cover the line. The return of Williams and Bailey on defense should shore up some of the Broncos defensive weaknesses and allow some talented defenders to cover up Gates and the backfield receiving options.
Big coaching edge in this one. Shanahan is the better preparer and in game manager compared to Turner. Homfield advantage is usually magnified in playoff like games. The market is treating it as such with the line they put forth. However, the Broncos have played better on the road this year while the Chargers have not performed well at home, especially against good teams.
The Broncos blew it last week, a loss that will more than likely keep them out of the playoffs. But no matter how you slice it, this line is inflated as oddmakers anticipate an influx of Chargers backers wanting to ride their upward trend and bet against a sinking ship. Trying to catch a falling knife is not good (the Broncos) unless the knife is being construed as a chainsaw in the market place. I will take the points.
Totals
Patriots @ Bills
Play: Over 40
Last week was a good example how the marketplace overreacts to bad weather, and blindly deflates low totals in anticipation of the market not already discounting the weather. Although this game truly has some weather variables that can materially impact the outcome of how this game is played, I still feel that the market is overacting to such variables, and their still exists value on the Over.
The Patriots offense is really starting to come into their own, as their underrated running game and upward trending passing game has caused problems for the defenses that they have recently faced. The Bills defense is one of the more inferior units that they will face all season, a defense that has gotten progressively worse as well. The Bills have struggled defending both the run and the pass, which bodes well for a well balanced offense like the Patriots who could take advantage of both weaknesses. The Patriots style of play on offense is also a good hedge for the weather, as running the ball well and implementing an effective first level passing game with a lot of screen passes can offset some of the weather effects without stunting their ability to move the ball. The Patriots have been putting up a great amount of points of late, and I see no reason for it to stop this Sunday.
The Patriots defense is still overrated and people can misinterpret last weeks apparently solid production as more substance than warranted. It was more of a Cardinals offense that looked overwhelmed by the predicaments rather than their opponents. The Bills offense is used to such weather and are used to this defense as well. The Patriots are vulnerable against the pass, something in which should encourage the Bills to increase their pass/run ratio despite the weather.
The weather can also have a positive effect for the weather. Bad weather promotes mistakes, mistakes that can lead to defensive touchdowns are solid field position for the opponents offense.
This game consists of two of the more inferior defenses in the league, and one of the hottest offenses in the league. The line clearly ignores such, and has its blinders on the weather. Such an approach proved to be a costly proposition last week, and has a good chance of doing the same in this game. I will take the Over in this game.
Radiers @ Bucs
Play: Under 39.5
The market may be overreacting to the recent Bucs performances that suggest their defense is showing some material leaks. They are ignoring the notion that their defensive struggles occurred against two of the best offenses in the league, something the Raiders are far from. In fact, the Raiders posses the worst offense in the league, an offense that should be overwhelmed by a Bucs defense (that just may have their playbook as well). Russell has struggled all year against solid pass defenses. Expect the Raiders to run the ball as much as possible to allow Russell to work within his means and prevent him from ending the season on a downward note. The Bucs are fighting for their playoff lives, and their defense is fighting for pride and their beloved coach one more time. Expect the Raiders to find a very hard time reaching the endzone.
What recent trend that may be sustainable for the Bucs is their downward trending offensive production. They lack explosiveness to move the chains in chunks, and simply lack the talent to chip away at the field at a consistent basis. After not showing up in recent games, the Raiders defense found themselves last week. If they play this week with the same intensity, they can give this Bucs offense problems. The Raiders defense the pass well, but struggle against the run. This should encourage a run oriented offense to be heavily dependent on the run. Their lack of running production should allow them to only lead to moderate success that eats up clock and moves the ball in small chunks.
Two bad offenses and two above average defenses. This recipe doesn’t warrant this total. The Raiders may not find the endzone, and the Bucs certainly don’t have the offense to compensate for such. I like the Under in this one.
Bears @ Texans
Play: Under 46.5
In what was an Over friendly season, there have been a good amount of games that have been accompanied by inflated totals to offset the influx of high scoring games. However, their appears to be an apparent disconnect and over inflated compensation in both the Texans and Bears games, as both teams combined have only been able to go over the total in just two of their last twelve games. More importantly than what has happened in the past is what the market is and is not discounting with current pricing. By setting the total this high, clearly the market is ignoring recent signs that their expectations have been off with these two teams scoring.
The Bears offense has regressed of late as Orton appears not fully over his injury. He clearly showed last week that he is not someone the Bears can rely on, especially in a game with so much importance for them. Expect them to rely heavily on the running game, a notion that will demand a lot of time off the clock and will not guarantee a lot of points due to their lack of explosiveness on the ground. The Texans defense has improved during the second half of the season, especially in their home games where they play with a lot more intensity.
The Texans offense has been inconsistent and has shown to run into problems against quality defenses. Their recent upward trend has been in large part due to their running game, something in which will more than likely be outmatched by the Bears run defense. Schaab simply lacks the consistency to compensate for such, and the Bears pass defense can hold its own.
I am not sure why the market has priced this total so high. However, they have overinflated both teams totals before, and more than likely just did again. I like the Under in this game.
Play: Saints +2
This game provides a good example of a line being too inflated to compensate for the “one team having a lot to play for vs. the team with nothing to play for” variable. Bettors playing this angle are only adding fuel to the fire, and betting on an angle that was compensated for when the line opened. With many people unable to look past this variable, they are missing variables such as the Saints wanting to finish the season with a winning record, the Saints being one of the most dangerous home teams in the league, Brees determined to get the record, and the Panthers coming off a very physical and emotional overtime road loss last week.
In my opinion, the Saints have the best offense in the NFC. It is also an offense that has the highest disparity of productivity and intrinsic worth playing on turf relative to grass. Although the Panthers have a solid defense, it is a defense that has shown some leaks and has a facet that is actually well below average and proved such last week against the Giants. This facet is their run defense, as their trench play has gotten worse as the season progressed. Although the Saints are known for their passing game, they have a very underrated and potent running game that could capitalize on this Panthers weakness, especially since they won’t have the luxury of stacking the box due to the potency of the Saints passing game. This advantage on the ground will open up the pass, and allow the Saints to put forth a well balanced attack that can put up some points against this worn down Panthers defense. Although there is not much to get excited for when the Saints are on defense, the Saints are a defense that is slightly below average against the run and pass, thus lack a glary weakness that could be really picked on against a well balanced offensive attack like the Panthers.
Home field advantage is magnified in this game. The entire NFC South has shown a huge disparity of play on the road relative to at home. This notion holds true especially for these two teams, as they have lost a combined one home loss, while both support a losing road record. The Saints home field edge has also not been fully accounted for by the market place, as they have only been unable to cover one home game as well. The Saints finesse offense is well suited for dome play, therefore making a fundamental home edge accompany the intangible advantages.
Yes, the Panthers have much more to play for than the Saints. However, this notion has been approached with blinders on by many, making the line an inflated one. It is hard to justify making the Saints an underdog at home against anyone, especially a team that put forth a losing road record and went the entire season without beating a team with a winning record on the road. I think the Saints have a good chance not losing by more than three points.
Cowboys @ Eagles
Play: Eagles -1
I said it the entire season, and will conclude with the same notion as well- the Cowboys are one of the most overrated teams in the league, their offense the most overrated offense in the league, and their on field potency is far beneath their paper potency. Their high probability of not making the playoffs comes to no surprise. The Eagles on the other hand have underachieved all season, and are better than their record indicates. Their high probability of not making the playoffs comes to a surprise. What obviously doesn’t come to a surprise is that if you put these two teams together, and value will be found on the Eagles.
The Cowboys proved once again against the Ravens that their offense is very overrated, and their actually production is well below their numerical numbers. A lot of garbage time stats has padded their production and duped the naïve. They have especially struggled against quality defenses, and the Eagles are definitely such. The Eagles ability to stop the run very well will once again put pressure on Romo in a big game, a call that he has consistently been unable to answer. Unfortunately for Romo, the Eagles defense doesn’t stop at the running game, as they have played the pass very well too. They are a much better defense than the one he faced earlier in the season, and the weather variable will also be much less friendly. Expect Johnson to put forth a game plan that attacks Romo’s mistake propensity, something that he must avoid if the Cowboys have a chance to win this game.
The Cowboys defense has gotten progressively better, but still not as good as their counterparts. The Eagles offense has underachieved, but if last week showed anything, is that they have to run the ball more. The Cowboys greatest weakness is their inability to stop the running game, and they will have their hands full with Westbrook. Expect the Eagles running game to take pressure off of McNaab and allow him to work within his means. McNaab has proved better than Romo that he can produce in big games.
Both teams play much better at home, so once again, home field advantage is a huge plus. Unlike the Cowboys, the Eagles have actually held their own against quality teams, and it has been the lesser teams that have given them problems. The Eagles in my opinion, are the better team. Add home field advantage to this notion, and one could tell this line is way off. I will take the Eagles in this one.
Lions @ Packers
Play: Packers -10.5
Last weeks Lions game was inflated to their side as everyone thought that there is no way they go winless the entire season. Their backers were blind sided to the reality of them being one of the worst teams we have ever seen. So how does the market respond? Only to inflate their asking price even more, as they claim that this is their last chance to win, and once ignore how bad they really are.
The Packers have really underachieved this season. They actually have a decent offense and defense, something that is rare for a team with their record. However, their true worth and potency was masked by their difficult schedule and having to play 11 teams this year with a winning record. They only got to play two really bad teams this year, and beat them both up. The Lions are horrible and getting worse. They have the worst defense we may have ever seen, a defense that plays worse on the road and will have their hands full against a Packers offense that has the ability to light up the scoreboard when they are on. Expect the Packers to take their frustrations out on the Lions and put forth an impressive offensive showing that puts pressure on a dormant Lions offense to have to keep pace to cover.
The Lions offense has been nearly as bad as their defense. They have scored more than 21 points just three times this season. The Packers can defend the pass decently which does not bode well for the Lions chances as they will probably be put into a deficit that makes them have to implement a heavy dose of passing. The Lions also lack the running game to take advantage of what the Packers defense does not do well.
Once again, home field advantage is magnified in this game. The Lions are a dome team that will be put into freezing weather. They also have a lot of young players that are not very experienced in these weather conditions.
The odds are very high that we will have a winless team this season. Expect the Lions to fight early on, but their lack of talent will put them into an early deficit. They will slowly face the reality and pack it in. I see the Packers winning this one big.
Bears @ Texans
Play: Bears +3
It looks like the market swept the Texans last week performance under the rug and continue to inflate their line as if they are a legitimately good team. This is also a rare game in which the team with something to play for is coming with a deflated price tag while facing a team with no playoff implications on the line.
After overachieving in a couple of games, the Texans defense once again showed their true worth, as they were dominated by one of the most dormant offenses in the league last week in Oakland. With Orton’s newfound propensity for error, the Bears value is heavily dependent on their ability to establish a running game. Fortunately for their chances this week, they face one of the more inferior run defenses in the league, which should allow Forte to carry the offense and allow Orton to play in the supplemental role he is much better suited for. The Texans are also vulnerable against the pass, and both Olson and Hester pose match up problems for them.
The Texans offense is pretty decent, especially at home. However, they will be outmatched against the Bears defense, which has the team speed to counter the Texans strengths. Although the Texans offense is known for their passing game, it is their running game that has been the catalyst of their upward trending productivity. The Bears have one of the best run defenses in the league, which should slowdown Slanton and put the burden on an inconsistent Schaab to make things happen.
This line is quite perplexing. You have the better team whose playoff hopes are on the line in this game getting points to a team that has been out of the playoff fight for over two months. Yes, the Texans play well at home and are trying to finish out the year with 8 wins. But that simply not enough to warrant laying three. I will gladly take the road dog in this one.
Redskins @ Niners
Play: Redskins +3
The Niners have been one of this years second half pleasant surprises after Hill and Singletary took over. The Redskins have been one of this years second half busts. However, one has to ponder how prevalent these two trends have been, and if they are truly as potent as the market is suggesting they are. After losing by double digits to the Cowboys, the Niners followed up by winning unimpressively against the Bills, beating the Jets at home, putting up just 9 points to the Dolphins, and needing a miracle win against the Rams. The Redskins on the other hand during that duration lost to the Cowboys in a much closer game, won in Seattle, then lost to two top tier teams in the Giants and Ravens, and beat the Eagles. In my opinion, even though these two teams have reversed course from the beginning of the season, not as much as the market would lead one to believe. Also, part of the Niners trend reversal was inspired by trying to get Singletary the job. Not that the job is his, one also has to wonder if the Niners relax a bit. Nonetheless, the underlying fundamentals support the Redskins.
The Niners offense may be less mistake prone with Hill, but they are still struggling to put points on the board. The Redskins defense has held their own during their downward slide, and have a solid enough run defense to limit Gore’s production and put the onus on an uneventful passing game to move the chains. The Redskins corners outclass the Niners receivers, which should once again have the Niners put forth limited production in the air.
The Niners defense has performed decenly of late, but really hasn’t been test much either. The Redskins downward offensive production has been in large part having to play the Cowboys, Giants, Ravens, and Giants defense in four of their last six games. They still have a solid running game that can give the Niners defense problems and allow Campbell to work within his means, something he hasn’t had the luxury of doing in recent games.
Homefield advantage? The Redskins and Niners production disparity at home relative to away has been minimal at berst.
The Redskins have the better offense and defense, and have more to play for with their coach having a question mark over his head and a winning record on sigh with a win. The Niners don’t warrant being favorites here. Taking the points is just a bonus.
Broncos @ Chargers
Play: Broncos +9
I said it all season, and will say it again. The Chargers are pretenders (although they are prone to peaking late in the season, and are a better team now than they were when I was predominately making this statement). Put them in any other division, and this game would be meaningless, and although they would be playing for is to avoid a losing record. To a good extent, you are what you are, and the Chargers are a team with a losing record, and not the team the market suggest they are by putting them at near double digit favorites against the Broncos.
The Chargers defense has improved of late, but still sub par and outclassed by this Broncos offense. They are vulnerable against teams with solid running games as they struggle getting off the field and passing the torch to their offense. Although the Broncos have an injured backfield, they still posses a solid running game that has a huge advantage and can keep the Chargers offense off the field. Their passing game is one of the best in the league, has had past success against the Chargers defense, and should compliment their running game to allow them to move the chains and put up points throughout the game. Although the Chargers offense also outclasses their oppositions defense, their disadvantage on the other side of the ball will cause them to more than likely play flawlessly to cover the line. The return of Williams and Bailey on defense should shore up some of the Broncos defensive weaknesses and allow some talented defenders to cover up Gates and the backfield receiving options.
Big coaching edge in this one. Shanahan is the better preparer and in game manager compared to Turner. Homfield advantage is usually magnified in playoff like games. The market is treating it as such with the line they put forth. However, the Broncos have played better on the road this year while the Chargers have not performed well at home, especially against good teams.
The Broncos blew it last week, a loss that will more than likely keep them out of the playoffs. But no matter how you slice it, this line is inflated as oddmakers anticipate an influx of Chargers backers wanting to ride their upward trend and bet against a sinking ship. Trying to catch a falling knife is not good (the Broncos) unless the knife is being construed as a chainsaw in the market place. I will take the points.
Totals
Patriots @ Bills
Play: Over 40
Last week was a good example how the marketplace overreacts to bad weather, and blindly deflates low totals in anticipation of the market not already discounting the weather. Although this game truly has some weather variables that can materially impact the outcome of how this game is played, I still feel that the market is overacting to such variables, and their still exists value on the Over.
The Patriots offense is really starting to come into their own, as their underrated running game and upward trending passing game has caused problems for the defenses that they have recently faced. The Bills defense is one of the more inferior units that they will face all season, a defense that has gotten progressively worse as well. The Bills have struggled defending both the run and the pass, which bodes well for a well balanced offense like the Patriots who could take advantage of both weaknesses. The Patriots style of play on offense is also a good hedge for the weather, as running the ball well and implementing an effective first level passing game with a lot of screen passes can offset some of the weather effects without stunting their ability to move the ball. The Patriots have been putting up a great amount of points of late, and I see no reason for it to stop this Sunday.
The Patriots defense is still overrated and people can misinterpret last weeks apparently solid production as more substance than warranted. It was more of a Cardinals offense that looked overwhelmed by the predicaments rather than their opponents. The Bills offense is used to such weather and are used to this defense as well. The Patriots are vulnerable against the pass, something in which should encourage the Bills to increase their pass/run ratio despite the weather.
The weather can also have a positive effect for the weather. Bad weather promotes mistakes, mistakes that can lead to defensive touchdowns are solid field position for the opponents offense.
This game consists of two of the more inferior defenses in the league, and one of the hottest offenses in the league. The line clearly ignores such, and has its blinders on the weather. Such an approach proved to be a costly proposition last week, and has a good chance of doing the same in this game. I will take the Over in this game.
Radiers @ Bucs
Play: Under 39.5
The market may be overreacting to the recent Bucs performances that suggest their defense is showing some material leaks. They are ignoring the notion that their defensive struggles occurred against two of the best offenses in the league, something the Raiders are far from. In fact, the Raiders posses the worst offense in the league, an offense that should be overwhelmed by a Bucs defense (that just may have their playbook as well). Russell has struggled all year against solid pass defenses. Expect the Raiders to run the ball as much as possible to allow Russell to work within his means and prevent him from ending the season on a downward note. The Bucs are fighting for their playoff lives, and their defense is fighting for pride and their beloved coach one more time. Expect the Raiders to find a very hard time reaching the endzone.
What recent trend that may be sustainable for the Bucs is their downward trending offensive production. They lack explosiveness to move the chains in chunks, and simply lack the talent to chip away at the field at a consistent basis. After not showing up in recent games, the Raiders defense found themselves last week. If they play this week with the same intensity, they can give this Bucs offense problems. The Raiders defense the pass well, but struggle against the run. This should encourage a run oriented offense to be heavily dependent on the run. Their lack of running production should allow them to only lead to moderate success that eats up clock and moves the ball in small chunks.
Two bad offenses and two above average defenses. This recipe doesn’t warrant this total. The Raiders may not find the endzone, and the Bucs certainly don’t have the offense to compensate for such. I like the Under in this one.
Bears @ Texans
Play: Under 46.5
In what was an Over friendly season, there have been a good amount of games that have been accompanied by inflated totals to offset the influx of high scoring games. However, their appears to be an apparent disconnect and over inflated compensation in both the Texans and Bears games, as both teams combined have only been able to go over the total in just two of their last twelve games. More importantly than what has happened in the past is what the market is and is not discounting with current pricing. By setting the total this high, clearly the market is ignoring recent signs that their expectations have been off with these two teams scoring.
The Bears offense has regressed of late as Orton appears not fully over his injury. He clearly showed last week that he is not someone the Bears can rely on, especially in a game with so much importance for them. Expect them to rely heavily on the running game, a notion that will demand a lot of time off the clock and will not guarantee a lot of points due to their lack of explosiveness on the ground. The Texans defense has improved during the second half of the season, especially in their home games where they play with a lot more intensity.
The Texans offense has been inconsistent and has shown to run into problems against quality defenses. Their recent upward trend has been in large part due to their running game, something in which will more than likely be outmatched by the Bears run defense. Schaab simply lacks the consistency to compensate for such, and the Bears pass defense can hold its own.
I am not sure why the market has priced this total so high. However, they have overinflated both teams totals before, and more than likely just did again. I like the Under in this game.
alwatts
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