NFL Week 17 [Bet's with projected win probability] from the DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH]

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The likely winner of this matchup is the Bills who have a projected win chance of 90% according to DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH] with their highest rating. On the other side of this matchup, the Patriots have a projected win probability of 10%. The whale of the move in this match-up -$900 with money line moving up!!!/// The Bills are ranked in the top 10 in average points per game, and the New England offense is dead last among their peers in scoring, so the Patriots may not have the firepower to remain competitive if they find themselves down early. While Buffalo is fighting for their playoff lives, the Patriots are playing only for pride and a high draft choice during the offseason at his point. The trends and the situation support a comfortable Buffalo victory at home Sunday. //According to DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH]. Buffalo's Josh Allen is most likely to score the first TD in Patriots vs. Bills. B&Rs Expert Consensus Rating projections give Allen a 15.4% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB is a 54.5% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.

Game with the 49ers given an 83% chance of winning, while the Commanders have a 17% chance of an upset win. [ DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH] with their 2nd highest rating]. Given the seemingly Swiss-Cheese style defense we've seen from the Commanders secondary this season, there is little reason to think the 49ers can't get over 30 points here, and will be looking to do so after an embarrassing loss on Christmas day. San Francisco has also been keen in the turnover department on defense and the Commanders have one of the highest interception rates in the NFL. Expect the wide receiving corps to make a big splash here and help Purdy regain his confidence.

Bears are the team to beat in this game, with their win probability at 62%. The Falcons, on the other hand, have a 38% chance of winning///// Falcons have needed to rely on the run a whole lot more of late and they rank second in the NFL averaging 31.5 rushing attempts per game. Ironically, they are tied with Chicago in that department. However, they don’t match the Bears with their rushing defense…no one does this season. Opponents are only getting 3.6 yards per rush against Chicago this season and have scored only seven rushing touchdowns. The forecast is calling for rain or even snow, so things could get very sloppy, which favors the team who routinely plays in the elements.

Colts against the Raiders this week, with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH] projecting a 63%-win probability for the home team. The Raiders have a 37% chance of winning at Lucas Oil Stadium. Raiders have a weak rush defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL. This is key when considering Indianapolis has a stellar rushing offense that ranks 13th. While Moss is questionable, the Colts have Jonathan Taylor who is more than capable of propelling the offense on the ground. I am not sold on Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell. The rookie has only connected on 58% and 42% of his passes in his last two performances. The Colts have a solid pass defense that ranks above average at 14th.

Seahawks to get the win against the Steelers. After running stats by B&Rs Expert Consensus stats rating of this matchup, the Seattle have a win probability of 65%, with the Steelers at 35%. Seattle has been dominant at home. Even with the defensive struggles for Seattle this season, they are rounding back into form now, which is unfortunate for Pittsburgh. Seattle has covered in three straight in this series and in four of their last five, while Pittsburgh has only covered once in their last four games, as those trends continue into this one. With Mason Rudolph's recent success potentially coming to an end (the arch of the good backup is 1-3 games), and Home-field advantage. That can play a pivotal role in NFL matchups, and then there's the crowd at Lumen Field. Head coach Pete Carroll and the team have demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, and this is as tight as it might get with the playoff race closing very soon.

My Bets

Bills on money line -$950 X 4 with a press

Josh Allen +$100 any touchdown

Bears -2 1/2 X 3 press.

Seahawks -3 buying hook

Bills money line -$950 X 4 with a press if reverse bet Bears -2 1/2 ] In order for the remaining bets to have action you must win the first bet. If the first bet loses or pushes, there will be no subsequent action. As each choice wins, there will be action on the following bet. There may be up to 15 selections in one if bet. Take into account that correlation restrictions for these types of bets are the same as they are for parlays In the same way than a parlay, an if bet links together 2 or more individual plays. However, unlike a parlay, an if bet is not an all-or-nothing bet: the individual plays are still individual wagers and pay at the listed money line if they win. 2 team reverse press consists of multiple overlapping press if bets.>>>

~2 Team 7-point teasers ~

49ers -7 & Bills -7

Chicago + 4 1/2 & Bills -7

49ers -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2

Bills -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2 Round Robin Teaser Parlay X 2 with a press wagered on all
 

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H. Hat....BOL with all your week 17 action buddy....
here's to a successful and profitable New Year.....
enjoy and be safe....indy
 

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Hey Harry, just FYI I live in Chicago and there’s NO chance for rain or snow on Sunday. It’s just gonna be about 34°.
 
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Hey Harry, just FYI I live in Chicago and there’s NO chance for rain or snow on Sunday. It’s just gonna be about 34°.
Well,!!!! that's even better for Chicago. My option Bears with their rushing defense will this match-up!!!!!
 

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Love Chi and Sea. BOL Harry, and a healthy, prosperous new year. At our age, you gotta throw in health with your new years wishes. I also like TB and LV, tho they are playing better teams than Pit and Atl, they have been hot, and have something to play for. No 1-2-3 Cancun, here.
 

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harry, went back and reread your item on Indy. Moss is out, Taylor is back, great news and 20 carries for JT. By this time each week, I have narrowed my list to 5 or 6 games and checking in with you, helps me shuffle the deck. Thank you for your work product, its much appreciated.
 

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And harry oddly enough the forecast has changed again. (Seems like every 15 minutes a new forecast in Chicago!!) there may be light snow now. Just updating. If I see another change I’ll report it back here.
 

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Hey Harry,

Was there a bet on the Colts as well? Didn't see it listed. Happy new year, continue winning.
 
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And harry oddly enough the forecast has changed again. (Seems like every 15 minutes a new forecast in Chicago!!) there may be light snow now. Just updating. If I see another change I’ll report it back here.
Thank You 3pointdog !!!!!!!
 
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Hey Harry,

Was there a bet on the Colts as well? Didn't see it listed. Happy new year, continue winning.
Still looking at the money line movement, no bet yet waiting for Sunday to make my move. Waiting for line to flocculate before I make my bet on the Colts!!!!
 
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My Bets *****All Bets Made including my add on at Circa Sportsbook [ Big D Hotel in Downtown Las Vegas,]

Bills on money line -$950 X 4 with a press

Josh Allen +$100 any touchdown

Bears -2 1/2 X 3 press.

Seahawks -3 buying hook

Bills money line -$950 X 4 with a press if reverse bet Bears -2 1/2 ] In order for the remaining bets to have action you must win the first bet. If the first bet loses or pushes, there will be no subsequent action. As each choice wins, there will be action on the following bet. There may be up to 15 selections in one if bet. Take into account that correlation restrictions for these types of bets are the same as they are for parlays In the same way than a parlay, an if bet links together 2 or more individual plays. However, unlike a parlay, an if bet is not an all-or-nothing bet: the individual plays are still individual wagers and pay at the listed money line if they win. 2 team reverse press consists of multiple overlapping press if bets.>>>

**Add on bet made Bills money line -$950 X 4 with a press if reverse bet] Bears -2 1/2 & If reverse bet Seahawks money line -$178 X 3 with a press
morning/


~2 Team 7-point teasers ~

49ers -7 & Bills -7

Chicago + 4 1/2 & Bills -7

49ers -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2

Bills -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2 Round Robin Teaser Parlay X 2 with a press wagered on all
 
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~B&Rs Expert Consensus Rating Projections with Stat's~

The Seattle Seahawks finally return home this week one game above .500 on the year following back-to-back three-point victories. The Seattle defense did just enough against Tennessee giving up 17 points including just seven in the second half on 207 yards in the game. Offensively Seattle pulled things out compiling 273 yards to score 20 points after 14 came in the fourth quarter.Geno Smith has led the way for the Seattle offense this season with 3,145 yards and 17 scores on 284 completions. Kenneth Walker III has compiled 774 yards and seven scores on 192 carries in 13 games played this season. DK Metcalf is receiver number one with 998 yards and eight scores on 60 grabs, while Tyler Lockett has chipped in 813 yards and four scores on 76 grabs.

Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O'Connell has thrown for 1,675 yards with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Zamir White is the leading active rusher for Las Vegas with 268 yards and one touchdown, while the leading receiver is Devante Adams with 972 yards and five touchdown receptions. The Las Vegas defense has made 40 quarterback sacks and intercepted 12 passes. Indianapolis quarterback Gardner Minshew has thrown for 2,940 yards with 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Zack Moss, who is listed as questionable, is the leading rusher for Indianapolis with 764 yards and five touchdowns. The leading receiver is Michael Pittman Jr (questionable) with 1,062 yards and four touchdowns. The Indianapolis defense has made 47 quarterback sacks and intercepted 15 passes. Colts-4 and cover easier at home.

The Chicago Bears look for a second consecutive victory on Sunday when hosting Atlanta. Chicago is 6-9 and last in the NFC North. The Bears are two games behind the 7th and final qualifying spot for the NFC playoffs with two games remaining. Chicago defeated the Arizona Cardinals 27-16 on Sunday. Chicago's defense held Arizona to 360 yards of total offense and the Bears gained 420 yards of total offense. Chicago quarterback Justin Fields has thrown for 2,146 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine receptions. Fields is the leading rusher with 585 yards and three touchdowns, while Khalil Herbert has rushed for 459 yards and one touchdown. The leading receiver is DJ Moore with 1,141 yards and seven touchdown receptions. Chicago's defense has made 27 quarterback sacks and intercepted 18 passes. Bears cover the spread with a easy win!!!!

Buffalo is far and away better this season than New England. Buffalo has played well in the past during December, covering the number in 10 of the last 15, while New England overall has failed to cover the nut in 15 of its last 19. New England is next to last in points scored at 14.1 points per game and faces a Buffalo offense that is averaging 26.9 points per game which is sixth best. Final Score Prediction, Buffalo Bills wins by big margin

The defense, a cornerstone of San Francisco’s success, concedes a mere 312.3 yards (11th) and 17.8 points per game (3rd). Nick Bosa has been a nightmare for quarterbacks with 10.5 sacks, while Charvarius Ward has snagged 4 interceptions, highlighting a defense that’s as opportunistic as it is stingy. The real Achilles' heel for Washington has been the defense. Allowing 384.3 yards and 30.2 points per game, the Commanders sit at the bottom of the league defensively. Jonathan Allen, with 5.5 sacks, and Kendall Fuller, with 2 interceptions, have been bright spots in an otherwise dim season. Offensively, the Commanders are middle-of-the-pack, with 327.5 yards per game (19th). Sam Howell, at the helm, has thrown for 3624 yards, but consistency has been elusive. San Francisco’ wins by by big margin
 
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harry, went back and reread your item on Indy. Moss is out, Taylor is back, great news and 20 carries for JT. By this time each week, I have narrowed my list to 5 or 6 games and checking in with you, helps me shuffle the deck. Thank you for your work product, its much appreciated.
Thank You for Your Reply and Info!!!! uscmd
 
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This one is going to be too much for the Raiders. The Colts are dominant on both sides of the ball, and Las Vegas is not consistent enough to keep up. They will allow Carson Wentz, Taylor, and the Colts offense too many drives, which should result in at least 28 points. That’s a total I just can’t see the Raiders hitting right now, no matter how much Carr tries to will it into existence.
In my opinion, the Raiders would have to be absolutely flawless to cover the spread in this one. I think it gets away from them, and the Colts score roughly 30 points, so I’ll take Indy in a 3 game 7-point teaser with it looking like Wentz will start, the Colts shouldn't have too much trouble winning or covering teaser. Besides it's not like Frank Reich and Co. haven't figured out how to win weird or ugly these last two months. This one shouldn't enter either territory. Teaser late bet>>> 49ers -7 & Bills -7 & Colts+ 3 1/2
 

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GL Harry but those players aren’t playing today for them

I’m on the Colts also
 
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My Bets *****All Bets Made including my add on at Circa Sportsbook [ Big D Hotel in Downtown Las Vegas,]

Bills on money line -$950 X 4 with a press

Josh Allen +$100 any touchdown

Bears -2 1/2 X 3 press.

Seahawks -3 buying hook

Bills money line -$950 X 4 with a press if reverse bet Bears -2 1/2 ] In order for the remaining bets to have action you must win the first bet. If the first bet loses or pushes, there will be no subsequent action. As each choice wins, there will be action on the following bet. There may be up to 15 selections in one if bet. Take into account that correlation restrictions for these types of bets are the same as they are for parlays In the same way than a parlay, an if bet links together 2 or more individual plays. However, unlike a parlay, an if bet is not an all-or-nothing bet: the individual plays are still individual wagers and pay at the listed money line if they win. 2 team reverse press consists of multiple overlapping press if bets.>>>

**Add on bet made Bills money line -$950 X 4 with a press if reverse bet] Bears -2 1/2 & If reverse bet Seahawks money line -$178 X 3 with a press
morning/


~2 Team 7-point teasers ~

49ers -7 & Bills -7

Chicago + 4 1/2 & Bills -7

49ers -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2

Bills -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2 Round Robin Teaser Parlay X 2 with a press wagered on all

My Bets *****All Bets Made including my add on at Circa Sportsbook [ Big D Hotel in Downtown Las Vegas,]

Bills on money line -$950 X 4 with a press

Josh Allen +$100 any touchdown

Bears -2 1/2 X 3 press.

Seahawks -3 buying hook

Bills money line -$950 X 4 with a press if reverse bet Bears -2 1/2 ] In order for the remaining bets to have action you must win the first bet. If the first bet loses or pushes, there will be no subsequent action. As each choice wins, there will be action on the following bet. There may be up to 15 selections in one if bet. Take into account that correlation restrictions for these types of bets are the same as they are for parlays In the same way than a parlay, an if bet links together 2 or more individual plays. However, unlike a parlay, an if bet is not an all-or-nothing bet: the individual plays are still individual wagers and pay at the listed money line if they win. 2 team reverse press consists of multiple overlapping press if bets.>>>

**Add on bet made Bills money line -$950 X 4 with a press if reverse bet] Bears -2 1/2 & If reverse bet Seahawks money line -$178 X 3 with a press
morning/


~2 Team 7-point teasers ~

49ers -7 & Bills -7

Chicago + 4 1/2 & Bills -7

49ers -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2

Colts+ 3 1/2 & 49ers -7 [ add on bet early this morning]

Bills -7 & Seahawks +3 1/2>>> Round Robin Teaser Parlay X 2 with a press wagering on all teaser bets.
 

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And harry oddly enough the forecast has changed again. (Seems like every 15 minutes a new forecast in Chicago!!) there may be light snow now. Just updating. If I see another change I’ll report it back here.
Snow is falling as I sit here drinking my morning tea. Shouldn’t be the kind to effect the game but the field will be wet
 

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Snow is falling as I sit here drinking my morning tea. Shouldn’t be the kind to effect the game but the field will be wet
I see!! And agree. But it was weird that a few days ago I swear I looked at the weather and it said NO snow… wtf!! I have Atlanta …can’t stand the bears. (Except in 85’)
 

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This one is going to be too much for the Raiders. The Colts are dominant on both sides of the ball, and Las Vegas is not consistent enough to keep up. They will allow Carson Wentz, Taylor, and the Colts offense too many drives, which should result in at least 28 points. That’s a total I just can’t see the Raiders hitting right now, no matter how much Carr tries to will it into existence.
In my opinion, the Raiders would have to be absolutely flawless to cover the spread in this one. I think it gets away from them, and the Colts score roughly 30 points, so I’ll take Indy in a 3 game 7-point teaser with it looking like Wentz will start, the Colts shouldn't have too much trouble winning or covering teaser. Besides it's not like Frank Reich and Co. haven't figured out how to win weird or ugly these last two months. This one shouldn't enter either territory. Teaser late bet>>> 49ers -7 & Bills -7 & Colts+ 3 1/2
Horrible copy and paste. Wentz plays for the Rams. Carr plays for the Saints. Reich just got fired from Carolina.
 

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