A ho-hum 4-3 week last week, producing a +1.3% profit. I say ho-hum because I started out 4-1, only to lose the last two and ruin what seemed like a possible big week. But, a profit is a profit, and I'll take it. The last six weeks have now produced a 31-16-3 66% record. And, the season record is still at 59%, so it's remains a very strong season in the NFL.
All side opinions went 8-7-1 last week and are now 116-97-9 55% over the first fifteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
TAMPA BAY -7.5 Atlanta 38
TB comes in still clinging to hopes of a playoff berth. Those hopes are slim at best but this team will keep fighting to the end. For Atlanta, things looked much better two weeks ago with Michael Vick back. Atlanta defeated Carolina at home and Vick looked tremendous in that outing. But, mid-week last week Dan Reeves was let go and Atlanta played a horrible game at Indy, losing 7-38. It wasn't so much that they lost to a very good Indy team, but they managed to only average 1.0 yps in that game, throwing for just 29 yards on 29 attempts, getting sacked four times. They did put up nice rushing numbers, gaining 125 yards at 4.8 ypr. But, they allowed Indy to rush for 178 yards at 5.7 ypr and throw for 287 yards at 8.7 yps. That totaled 465 yards at 7.3 yppl. That's not good. Was it because of the mid-week firing? Who knows. That certainly didn't help. The Atlanta defense had been playing well lately, allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. The offense continues to struggle but that is mainly in the passing game, where they are averaging just 4.1 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. They are rushing the ball for 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. Now they get TB. TB looked good last week in defeating Houston but that was a banged up Houston squad so let's not get too excited about the victory. The TB offense has been very average over their last five games, averaging just 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl. The defense continues to play well, allowing just 4.3 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but average against the run, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Atlanta should be able to find some success running the ball. Atlanta qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY) and they are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers favor TB by 9.5 (all games) and by six points (last five games) and by five points (Home/Away numbers). I have a tough time taking Atlanta simply because of the prior domination by TB against Michael Vick but Atlanta is the "right" side here and perhaps a look to the under. TAMPA BAY 20 ATLANTA 14
Kansas City -3 MINNESOTA 54
A few weeks ago I had no doubt KC would win this game. But, leading up to this game and now after looking at it closer, I doubt KC can win this game SU. That's very hard for me to say, seeing I bleed Green & Gold and would like to see nothing better than the see Vikings lose this game. But, unfortunately, that's not the way I see this game playing out. The KC defense has been bad all year long and it only gets worse on the road when they are playing above average offenses. KC has played four above average offenses on the road this year (GB, Cin, SD, Denver) and they allowed each of those teams to gain more yards per play than they average for the season. They allowed those four teams to average almost 32 points per game. Laying three points on the road is not a good thing when you are allowing 32 points per game. The median for those four games was 29 points so it's not like the 45 points Denver scored threw those numbers out of whack. They have allowed at least 24 points in each of those games. KC is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.7 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games and those numbers are somewhat similar on the road. In the four games against good offenses, they allowed an average of 32 points per game against teams who average 25 points per game and 6.6 yppl to teams who average 5.5 yppl. That's not a good sign for KC in this game, considering this will be the best offense they have faced all year long. On the road this year, KC has thrived on winning games by forcing interceptions. If they have forced an interception, they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. If they haven't forced an interception, they are 0-2 SU and ATS. Culpepper has thrown but three interceptions at home all year long and one was late in the game against the Giants, when his team was desperately trying to get back into the game. I doubt he throws an interception in this game. Minnesota has faced only a couple of real bad defenses this year and that is Atlanta, whom they scored 39 points against and San Diego, whom they scored 28 points against. Both of those were on the road. So, I think it's fair to suggest Minnesota will score somewhere around 30-35 points in this game. Now you might be saying this KC offense is pretty good itself and will be facing a terrible Vikings defense as well. That is true but Minnesota has played much better on defense, at home this year, than on the road. On the road, they are allowing 28 points per game to teams averaging just 24 points per game and at home, they are allowing just 17 points per game to teams averaging 19 points per game. They are allowing 0.7 yppl less at home than on the road. Most notably different is their pass defense, which allows a whopping 7.1 yps against 6.0 yps on the road but just 5.6 yps against 5.5 yps at home. Now, Minnesota hasn't faced an offense like this yet this year. They did allow 30 points to a good GB offense, only seven points to a good Seattle offense (and no, Seattle's offense hasn't played that bad on the road this year, it's been their defense and turnovers), 20 points to a good Denver offense (who had injuries), and seven points to a good SF offense (who also had injuries). Against poor defense, KC has scored 42 points at Houston, 40 points against an average GB defense, 19 points against a poor Cincinnati defense (who is about as bad as Minnesota, but worse at home than Minnesota), and 28 points against San Diego. Those four average out to about 32 points. But, the numbers vary a little more from 19 points to 42 points. The median is 34 points. KC thrives with their passing game, which consists of their TE, running back and downfield to their receivers, or in other words, a full compliment of bodies to hurt you. Minnesota has played two other teams at home that throw the ball well, on the road, with a full compliment of players to do damage. Those teams are the Giants (when they were healthy) and the Packers. They allowed 29 and 30 points to those two teams. So, it appears this will be a high scoring game, where points are the better option. Minnesota qualifies in some terrific situations this week, while KC qualifies in some negative situations. KC qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 74-38-3 (5-2 TY) play against situation. That same situation played against Minnesota last week. KC also qualifies in another negative scheduling situation, which is a 98-52-3 play against situation. The Vikings are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY) and Minnesota qualifies in a last home game situation, which is 64-32-4. Minnesota also qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 75-30-4 and 46-12-3. Final numbers, before accounting for the situations Minnesota qualifies in, show KC by two points (all games), 3.5 points (last five games) and by two points (home/away numbers). This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 36-13-1. I was reluctant to go over in this game because my general numbers don't support such a high total, showing 55 points (all games), 52 points (last five games) and 46 points (home/away games). But, when I break down the numbers as I have here, against good and bad offenses and defenses, I think we have an excellent chance at both teams reaching 30 points each. The only fear would be Minnesota getting ahead by a comfortable margin and resorting to running the ball to keep their defense off the field. But, I think the KC offense is good enough to stay in this game and force Minnesota to move the ball through the air as well. Lastly, KC hasn't won a road game by more than seven points all year against a good team. That means Minnesota should stay in this game to the end, always having the ability to get a late score and cover. And, Minnesota is now 20-6 ATS as a home dog (or pick) since 1990 and 10-0 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of .800 or greater. MINNESOTA 35 KANSAS CITY 30
New England -3 NY JETS 35
Have to certainly respect what Bill Belichick has done to this point with this NE team. After all, I believe they only have two Pro Bowlers, yet have the best record in the league. That's a testimony to Belichick and his staff. But, as good as NE is and has played, this is not a good spot for them and their games have been much closer than one might think with a 12-2 team. Maybe that's just another credit to Belichick because his teams win the close games, but I think they are ripe to lose a game against a Jets team that is playing well. Over the last ten years in NY, NE has won only three games by more than three points here and only two by more than four points. One was last year, but that was when the Jets still had Vinny at quarterback early in the season. The previous game had a bad defense and good offense (KC) laying points on the road. This game has a below average offense but good defense laying points on the road. NE still can't run the ball, averaging just 2.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games and the offense, as a whole, is averaging just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. The defense continues to play terrific, allowing just 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl over their last five games. And, on the road this year, they have been great, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl. For the Jets, they have been playing solid ball as of late, gaining 5.4 yppl against 4.7 yppl over their last five games. That includes rushing for 4.3 ypr against 3.7 ypr and throwing for 6.4 yps against 5.4 yps. The defense has been average, allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl. NY had allowed a long string of 100 yard rushers this year, doing so in six straight games and ten of eleven games at one point. But, in the three games they haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher, which has been two of their past three, they are 3-0 SU. All three of those games came at home against Buffalo (who was banged up), against Tennessee and last week against Pittsburgh. NE has only rushed for 100 yards in five games this year so it isn't like they need to get to 100 yards to win their games. The Jets pass defense has been below average on the road this year but is above average at home, allowing 5.5 yps against 5.6 yps. It's much different when laying points on the road and despite all the success NE has had this year, this is only the second game they will be laying points on the road. They failed in their first try, winning SU at Houston 23-20 in OT, laying -5.5 points. They did dominate that game from a stats perspective but turnovers and missed opportunities did them in. NE has had what could be considered lucky or close wins this year on the road. They have defeated Philadelphia soundly early in the year when Philly wasn't playing very well. They lost to Washington by three points, defeated Miami by six in OT and should have lost that game if not for missed field goals by Miami. They beat Denver on a last second touchdown by four, beat Houston by three in OT, although they did dominate that game and beat Indy by four, again holding Indy on a last second try for a score, although they led comfortably that whole game. The point being, when getting points on the road, their covers are rather easy, but when being asked to lay points on the road, these games would be much closer to not covering. Surprisingly, Belichick has only been favored on the road in eight games in his career with NE. He is now 2-6 ATS in those games, including being 0-5 ATS when laying less than six points. Meaning, in the real close games, he has failed. Jets haven't lost a home game by more than three points since Pennington came back to start. And, as you would expect, they qualify in some terrific situations this weekend. NY qualifies in a momentum home dog situation, which is 155-105-10 (3-0 TY). They also qualify in a turnover situation, which is 76-29-1 and a turnover table subset, which is 141-82-4. Once again, I have talked all season about teams not covering versus teams who are covering. The play is on the teams not covering and the Jets qualify in a situation, based on that premise, which is 277-183-21 (12-8-2 TY). Final numbers favor the Jets by 3.5 points (all games), by .5 point (last five games) and NE by three points (home/away games). The Jets are playing well and qualify in terrific situations this week against a NE team who has played great "team" ball, but I think their good fortunes run out this week. NY JETS 20 NEW ENGLAND 13
BUFFALO -1.5 Miami 34
Miami is beginning to finish the season just like they seem to do every season, by losing. They are now 20-41-2 ATS in the month of December (regular season) since 1988. That record includes being 16-19-2 at home and 4-22-0 on the road. That record also includes a record of 2-11 on the road in December in northern cities, playing outside, where it is considerably colder than it is in Miami. Nine of those thirteen games, they have lost by three or more points. Miami's offense continues to play below average, gaining just 4.5 yppl against 4.8 yppl. The defense is playing well, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The Bills continue to play better and they are rushing the ball extremely well right now, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. They still struggle throwing the ball, averaging just 4.9 yps against 6.3 yps. Meanwhile, the defense continues to play better than any other teams in the league. They allow only 16 points per game and only TB allows fewer points per game. NE is also allowing only 16 points but they have faced offenses that are averaging 20 points per game, while Buffalo has faced offenses that have averaged 21 points per game. From a yards per play perspective, Buffalo is allowing just 4.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl, which is tied with Baltimore for the best numbers in the league. Buffalo allowed Philadelphia 23 points early in the season, but other than that, they haven't allowed more than 17 points to any team at home. Those 17 points were to Indianapolis, who has a far superior offense to that of Miami. Buffalo has scored at least 10 points in every home game this year. I just don't see Miami scoring more than 13 points and the Buffalo offense has performed well enough to score at least 17 points in this game. Buffalo qualifies in a last home game situation, which is 64-32-4 and they are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers favor Miami by .5 point (all games), Buffalo by 5.5 points (last five games) and this game even (home/away games). This game should also be a low scoring game and I would favor the under here as well. BUFFALO 20 MIAMI 10
Baltimore -3 CLEVELAND 36.5
Baltimore lost at Oakland last week, 12-20, but they controlled that game, stat wise. They simply turned the ball over three times to zero for Oakland and that cost them the game. The Ravens gained 319 yards to 265 for Oakland and 5.2 yppl to 4.0 yppl. The Ravens have won three out of four here in Cleveland since 1999. Baltimore's offense has improved and they are now averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.4 yppl, including 5.7 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games (same time period that Anthony Wright took over). That may not sound like much but it is a huge improvement in their passing game over what they had before. But, during that same time period, their rushing offense is averaging just 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. The defense continues to play well, allowing 4.3 yppl against 5.4 yppl. The problem for Baltimore is they have now played seven road games and lost five of those seven, including the last four in a row at Cincinnati, St. Louis, Miami and Oakland. For Cleveland, they put up a big time effort last week in Denver, only to lose by three in OT. Cleveland only gained 275 yards in that game to 417 yards for Denver but those numbers are very misleading. They actually out gained Denver, 5.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl and those are the important numbers. Cleveland is now averaging 5.3 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games and allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl during that same time span. Baltimore qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 161-91-8 play against situation this week. Cleveland also qualifies in our play on teams not covering the spread against teams covering the spread, which is 277-183-21 (12-8-2 TY). But, Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY) and they qualify in a subset, which is 246-141-13 (18-10-2 TY). The situations go both ways and I will lean with what I think is the better team. Final numbers suggest a pick 'em (all games), Baltimore by .5 point (last five games) and Cleveland by one (home/away games). Numbers lean slightly to Cleveland but I like the fundamental situation Baltimore qualifies in. Cleveland has played three good teams at home this year and lost to all three by three or more. They lost to Indy by three, Cincinnati by seven and St. Louis by six. BALTIMORE 20 CLEVELAND 13
CHICAGO -4.5 Washington 34.5
Not much to play for here but pride. The Bears got the win and cover for me last week, but they were lucky to do so. They were out gained by Minnesota, 393-232 and 5.3 yppl to 4.3 yppl. For Washington, well, it wasn't pretty, losing 0-27 and getting out gained 326-161 and 4.5 yppl to 3.0 yppl. Bears are 3-0 has a home favorite this year, while Washington is 5-2 as a road dog this year. Bears offense continues to be anemic, gaining just 4.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl over the last five games and their defense continues to play well, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.3 yppl. For Washington, the offense is just as anemic, gaining just 4.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl but the defense is worse, allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Washington qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Chicago by 3.5 points (all games), by five points (last five games) and Washington by one point (home/away games). I will lean with Washington based on the situation. CHICAGO 20 WASHINGTON 17
ST LOUIS -6.5 Cincinnati 52.5
I've made a habit of going against the Rams this year, and at times, going against Cincinnati as well. While I believe both teams are overrated, at least the Rams are in an environment that favors them much better than Cincinnati. I think Cincinnati has had a great season and their team is certainly on the right track, but they are not there yet. Cincinnati has played just one game on the road this year against a team over .500. They lost that game badly to Baltimore, 13-31. In fact, since 1990, Cincinnati is just 1-16-1 ATS when getting less than 13 points and facing a team on the road with a win percentage of .667 or greater. That includes a 0-3 mark when Cincy is .500 or better. The Cincinnati defense has not played well over their last five games, allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.5 yppl. The offense has performed well, gaining 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl. They'll face a Rams offense, which continues to be just a bit above average, gaining 5.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl, and a Rams defense, which is allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. Cincinnati has run the ball extremely well over their last five games, gaining 5.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr and that could cause trouble against the Rams defense, which is allowing 5.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. At home this year, the Rams have allowed just 4.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr so they have played much better at home, against the rush. On the road this year, Cincinnati has gained just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr, so maybe the home/road dichotomy will prevail here. Cincinnati qualifies in a couple of similar negative late season situations that are based on their poor defensive performances last week and the week before, which are 42-14-2 and 75-32-2 and plays against Cincinnati this week. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is a 304-228-11 (18-12 TY) play. Final numbers favor the Rams by 4.5 points (all games), six points (last five games) and by 11 points (home/away games). Those numbers also predict 53 points (all games), 58 points (last five games) and 49 points (home/away games). ST LOUIS 30 CINCINNATI 17
CAROLINA -9.5 Detroit 37
Carolina won last week but, as usual, it didn't come easy. There really isn't any reason to think they can blow away the Lions this week. Yes, the Lions are one of the two or three worse teams in the league, in all likelihood, but Carolina just doesn't blow anyone away. Carolina's wins this year have been by 1, 3, 20, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, and 3. Those numbers don't look like numbers of a team to cover a -9.5 point spread. Detroit has lost but three road games by more than 10 points. Now, I'm not here to suggest Detroit is a play this week, only to say Carolina isn't blowing anyone away. Carolina, known for their rushing ability, has been terrible running the ball lately. Last week it was for just 67 yards at 3.7 ypr and over their last five games, it has been just 3.3 ypr against 4.6 ypr. Their passing game has been solid, gaining 7.2 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games and that should match up well against a Detroit pass defense, which is allowing 8.0 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. The Lions rush defense is allowing just 4.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. On defense, Carolina has been above average, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.8 yppl and they should have no trouble stopping a Lions offense that is averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Detroit qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY) but they also qualify in a negative late season situation, which plays against teams who suffer poor defensive efforts in their previous game. That situation plays against the Lions and is 75-32-2. Final numbers predict Carolina by 8.5 points (all games), seven points (last five games) and by five points (home/away games). CAROLINA 21 DETROIT 14
JACKSONVILLE -1.5 New Orleans 42
Situations go both ways here as NO qualifies in a situation that plays on teams who get back to .500 after losing their previous game to fall back to .500. That situation is 104-60-4 and won with GB over SF a few weeks back. But, Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-58-8. Both team's offenses are above average, with Jacksonville averaging 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl and NO averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl. But, the big difference here is in the defense, where Jacksonville has a decided advantage. They are allowing just 3.9 yppl against 4.7 yppl over their last five games, including just 3.1 ypr against 3.5 ypr and 4.6 yps against 5.8 yps. NO, on offense, is running the ball well, gaining 5.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr, but they'll find that a little tougher against Jacksonville. And the Saints pass offense is a bit below average, gaining just 5.7 yps against 5.9 yps. The Saints defense has been below average, allowing 5.3 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.3 yps for a total of 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl. That should work just fine for a Jacksonville offense, which is above average with both, the run and the pass, averaging 4.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.5 yps. Final numbers suggest Jacksonville by two (all games), by four (last five games) and NO by two (home/away games). I like Jacksonville. JACKSONVILLE 23 NEW ORLEANS 20
DALLAS -11 NY Giants 35
What can I say? The Giants are decimated with injuries and Dallas needs the win. But, remember this. The Giants are playing to win the game SU. The Cowboys are playing to win the game SU, not cover the spread. They will be content to win this game by ten or seven points, etc. Giants qualify in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY) and are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers show Dallas by 7.5 points (all games), by 13 points (last five games) and the Giants by one point (home/away games). That home/away games number is obviously skewed because of the injuries, etc. The point here is the situations lie with the Giants. You can decide on your own but I will almost always lean with the situations, which are a long term 55%+ winner. DALLAS 23 NY GIANTS 14
Tennessee NL HOUSTON
Very tough to make a call on this game without knowing who will be playing for Tennessee. Houston, meanwhile, has suffered some injuries over the last couple of weeks that have really hurt their performance. Houston qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers suggest Tennessee by 8.5 points (all games), 3.5 points (last five games) and by 10 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, if the total is 38 or higher, that is 304-228-11. I will predict Tennessee to win by seven and let the line decide where I lean. TENNESSEE 21 HOUSTON 14
PITTSBURGH -6 San Diego 39
Yet another game that nobody really cares about. I do have an under situation on this game, which is 79-43-1 (6-2 TY) and almost decided to play this game under, but decided to leave it off the card in the end. The SD defense has actually played much better lately, allowing just 5.1 yppl against 5.5 yppl over their last five games. That includes being above average against both, the run and the pass. At the same time, their offense has slipped back a little, gaining just 5.4 yppl against 5.6 yppl over their last five games, being below average with both, the run and the pass. For Pittsburgh, similar situation. Their offense has been below average, gaining just 4.7 yppl against 5.4 yppl but their defense has been above average, allowing just 5.2 yppl against 5.5 yppl over their last five games. SD qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY). SD also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY) and a subset of that, which is 431-300-24 (33-17-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Pittsburgh by 4.5 points (all games), six points (last five games) and SD by three points (home/away games). I like SD, with the better running game, here. PITTSBURGH 20 SAN DIEGO 17
PHILADELPHIA -7.5 San Francisco 41
Philly continues to play exceptional football. They have now won nine straight games and are averaging a remarkable 6.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. The defense has been below average during that time, allowing 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Their rushing defense, which has been talked about for some time now, is allowing 5.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The pass defense is allowing 5.4 yps against 5.4 yps. Perhaps some of this poor defense, if you will, is because their offense has performed so well. The offense is averaging 5.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 8.0 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. That is outstanding. For the 49ers, it's a very similar scenario to Philly, minus the wins, of course. Their offense is averaging 6.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl, gaining 5.1 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 7.0 yps against 6.1 yps. On defense, they are allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.7 yps for a total of 5.1 yps against 5.0 yps. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 304-228-11 and 18-12 this year. But, having said that, this game also has everything I look for when playing an over, including great value, suggesting 44 points (all games), 62 points (last five games) and 45 points (home/away games). It isn't often I will suggest to go against the great situations I use, but this is one of them. The total in this game is 41 points. Since their loss to NE, Philly has now scored at least 24 points in every home game this year, including 36 and 33 in their two previous home games. They have now scored at least 26 points in each of their last five games. SF has allowed 35 points at Minnesota, 44 points at Baltimore and 41 points at Cincinnati. Those three teams are the only teams they have played on the road this year, who are average to above average in their home contests in terms of yards per play. That averages out to 40 points per game. Philly has averaged 28 points at home against the four below average defenses they have played at home this year. That should amount to Philly being able to score around 30-34 points in this game. SF has averaged about 19 points per game on the road against the three average-to-below average defenses they have faced this year. Philly has also allowed about 19 points per game to the five teams they have played at home this year, who are above average on offense in their road games. As for the side, SF qualifies in a contrary situation, which has been fantastic, going 107-52-2, including 5-0 this year. SF also qualifies in a late season situation, which plays against road teams after poor defensive efforts in their previous game, which is 75-32-2. That situation plays against SF, so the situations cancel each other out. But, I will lean with SF, despite their 0-7 SU road record, because I believe they might be able to run the ball enough to keep this game close, even though the breakdown I just went through above doesn't necessarily support them. I do like the over in this game, despite the situation playing against it. You won't find me going against my own situations very often. PHILADELPHIA 33 SAN FRANCISCO 26
SEATTLE -13.5 Arizona 43.5
See the Giants write-up. Nothing I can say here can justify taking Arizona, from a fundamental standpoint. After all, they have lost their previous seven road games by an average of 24 points per game. Seattle has gone 7-0 SU at home and averaged winning those games by 12 points per game, including by an average of 24 points per game against the two teams with four or fewer wins this season (Arizona has three wins). So, this certainly has the makings of being about a 24 point game. Arizona qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-228-11 (15-11-1 TY) and they are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers suggest Seattle by 12.5 points (all games), by 12 points (last five games) and by 23 points (home/away games). I'll lean with Arizona because of the situations, but you have to have a lot of balls to take Arizona this week. If this line were less than 10 points, Seattle would qualify in a bounce back situation that is 30-10-1. SEATTLE 31 ARIZONA 20
INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 Denver 48
I doubt Clinton Portis will play in this game. I've sprained my knee before and, although every sprain is different, I find it hard to believe he can come back in just one week, and attempt to take the beating running backs take in the NFL. Denver does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY), including the best subset, which is 141-60-6 (12-6-1 TY). Denver is playing well right now, averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including rushing for 5.5 ypr against 4.6 ypr and passing for 6.0 yps against 5.9 yps. Their defense has also played well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Indy is also playing well, gaining 5.6 yppl against 4.7 yppl, including 7.0 yps against 5.7 yps. The defense is another story, however, allowing 5.0 yppl against 4.8 yppl, which includes allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr. All of these numbers are significant because Denver runs the ball well (5.5 ypr against 4.6 ypr last five) and will face an Indy rush defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr. And the great passing offense of Indy, averaging 7.0 yps against 5.7 yps (last five games) faces a good Denver pass defense, which is allowing just 5.2 yps against 6.1 yps (last five games). The situation favors Denver as does the match-up, regardless if Portis plays or not, I believe. Final numbers favor Indy by 3.5 points (all games), by two points (last five games) and Denver by four points (home/away games). Denver lost by one against a similar Kansas City team on the road and they were blown out at Minnesota and Baltimore but those games were without Plummer. Indy lost to the only other team they have played at home this year that runs the ball well and is a decent team (or was running the ball well when they played them) and that is Carolina. I like Denver here getting the points. I also have a situation, which plays on the under and is 226-123-6 (10-6 TY). Final points, however, suggest about 53 points (all games), 57 points (last five games) and 46 points (home/away games). That's enough to keep my from playing the under. Unlike the Philly game, I will still lean to the under. Going under 48 points is much easier than 41 points and there is one good defense in this game. INDIANAPOLIS 24 DENVER 23
Green Bay -5 OAKLAND 44
Another game, which just like last week, Oakland qualifies as a best bet, but GB has a pretty good situation favoring them that I am not eager to go against. Baltimore qualified in the same situation last week, although they also qualified in subsets of that situation, which GB doesn't qualify in this week. I passed last week and it cost me a win, but I will remain consistent and pass again this week, although the overall situations favor Oakland to cover this game. The Packers season has been a strange season in that nobody could stop their running game for a four game stretch earlier in the year. Now, all of a sudden, they can't run the ball, but they are throwing the ball very well. That probably bodes well for them because teams will not be able to game plan against just one facet of their offense. I suspect they will try very hard to get their running game going this week. The Packers were in control for the majority of the game last week, lost the lead for two plays, and then took the lead back and were in control the rest of the way. They averaged 6.0 yppl last week and allowed 5.5 yppl to SD. Take out a broken coverage 68 yard touchdown toss to Tomlinson and they allowed just 4.7 yppl. The Packers offense is averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games but 6.5 yps against 5.8 yps over that same time span. The defense has played well over their last five games, allowing just 3.9 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.7 yps for a total of 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Included in that was allowing a SD offense, which is averaging 5.0 ypr for the season and 5.2 ypr at home, to gain just 3.3 ypr last week. The addition of Grady Jackson has really helped the Packers defense. For Oakland, they lost a game to the Broncos three games ago, 8-22, but out played Denver in that game, only to lose because of multiple turnovers. Last week, they defeated Baltimore, 20-12, but were out played in that game, losing the yardage battle, 265-319, the yards per play battle, 4.0-5.2, but won the turnover battle 3-0. The numbers really aren't that impressive for Oakland, gaining just 4.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games and allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl, including 6.9 yps against 6.3 yps. The Packers recent success, both in the win column and on offense, sets them up in a negative situation, which is a 82-42-5 (4-2 TY) play against them here. The Raiders also qualify in a turnover situation, which is a 76-29-1 play that plays against teams who have been successful in the turnover battle over their last couple of games. Chances are that luck/good fortune will not continue this week. Once again, teams not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread, are profitable plays, and Oakland qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 277-183-21 (12-8-2 TY). GB does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY) but they don't qualify in the better subsets of that situation. Final numbers favor GB by six points (all games), by 4.5 points (last five games) and by six points (home/away games). Because of the fundamental rushing situation, I will not play Oakland this week, but they do qualify as best bet potential. GREEN BAY 21 OAKLAND 20
BEST BETS
YTD 55-38-5 +30.80%
3% MINNESOTA +3
3% NY JETS +3
2% KC/MINNESOTA OVER 53.5
2% BUFFALO -2
STRONG OPINION
SF/PHILADELPHIA OVER 41
All side opinions went 8-7-1 last week and are now 116-97-9 55% over the first fifteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
TAMPA BAY -7.5 Atlanta 38
TB comes in still clinging to hopes of a playoff berth. Those hopes are slim at best but this team will keep fighting to the end. For Atlanta, things looked much better two weeks ago with Michael Vick back. Atlanta defeated Carolina at home and Vick looked tremendous in that outing. But, mid-week last week Dan Reeves was let go and Atlanta played a horrible game at Indy, losing 7-38. It wasn't so much that they lost to a very good Indy team, but they managed to only average 1.0 yps in that game, throwing for just 29 yards on 29 attempts, getting sacked four times. They did put up nice rushing numbers, gaining 125 yards at 4.8 ypr. But, they allowed Indy to rush for 178 yards at 5.7 ypr and throw for 287 yards at 8.7 yps. That totaled 465 yards at 7.3 yppl. That's not good. Was it because of the mid-week firing? Who knows. That certainly didn't help. The Atlanta defense had been playing well lately, allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. The offense continues to struggle but that is mainly in the passing game, where they are averaging just 4.1 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. They are rushing the ball for 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. Now they get TB. TB looked good last week in defeating Houston but that was a banged up Houston squad so let's not get too excited about the victory. The TB offense has been very average over their last five games, averaging just 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl. The defense continues to play well, allowing just 4.3 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but average against the run, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Atlanta should be able to find some success running the ball. Atlanta qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY) and they are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers favor TB by 9.5 (all games) and by six points (last five games) and by five points (Home/Away numbers). I have a tough time taking Atlanta simply because of the prior domination by TB against Michael Vick but Atlanta is the "right" side here and perhaps a look to the under. TAMPA BAY 20 ATLANTA 14
Kansas City -3 MINNESOTA 54
A few weeks ago I had no doubt KC would win this game. But, leading up to this game and now after looking at it closer, I doubt KC can win this game SU. That's very hard for me to say, seeing I bleed Green & Gold and would like to see nothing better than the see Vikings lose this game. But, unfortunately, that's not the way I see this game playing out. The KC defense has been bad all year long and it only gets worse on the road when they are playing above average offenses. KC has played four above average offenses on the road this year (GB, Cin, SD, Denver) and they allowed each of those teams to gain more yards per play than they average for the season. They allowed those four teams to average almost 32 points per game. Laying three points on the road is not a good thing when you are allowing 32 points per game. The median for those four games was 29 points so it's not like the 45 points Denver scored threw those numbers out of whack. They have allowed at least 24 points in each of those games. KC is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.7 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games and those numbers are somewhat similar on the road. In the four games against good offenses, they allowed an average of 32 points per game against teams who average 25 points per game and 6.6 yppl to teams who average 5.5 yppl. That's not a good sign for KC in this game, considering this will be the best offense they have faced all year long. On the road this year, KC has thrived on winning games by forcing interceptions. If they have forced an interception, they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. If they haven't forced an interception, they are 0-2 SU and ATS. Culpepper has thrown but three interceptions at home all year long and one was late in the game against the Giants, when his team was desperately trying to get back into the game. I doubt he throws an interception in this game. Minnesota has faced only a couple of real bad defenses this year and that is Atlanta, whom they scored 39 points against and San Diego, whom they scored 28 points against. Both of those were on the road. So, I think it's fair to suggest Minnesota will score somewhere around 30-35 points in this game. Now you might be saying this KC offense is pretty good itself and will be facing a terrible Vikings defense as well. That is true but Minnesota has played much better on defense, at home this year, than on the road. On the road, they are allowing 28 points per game to teams averaging just 24 points per game and at home, they are allowing just 17 points per game to teams averaging 19 points per game. They are allowing 0.7 yppl less at home than on the road. Most notably different is their pass defense, which allows a whopping 7.1 yps against 6.0 yps on the road but just 5.6 yps against 5.5 yps at home. Now, Minnesota hasn't faced an offense like this yet this year. They did allow 30 points to a good GB offense, only seven points to a good Seattle offense (and no, Seattle's offense hasn't played that bad on the road this year, it's been their defense and turnovers), 20 points to a good Denver offense (who had injuries), and seven points to a good SF offense (who also had injuries). Against poor defense, KC has scored 42 points at Houston, 40 points against an average GB defense, 19 points against a poor Cincinnati defense (who is about as bad as Minnesota, but worse at home than Minnesota), and 28 points against San Diego. Those four average out to about 32 points. But, the numbers vary a little more from 19 points to 42 points. The median is 34 points. KC thrives with their passing game, which consists of their TE, running back and downfield to their receivers, or in other words, a full compliment of bodies to hurt you. Minnesota has played two other teams at home that throw the ball well, on the road, with a full compliment of players to do damage. Those teams are the Giants (when they were healthy) and the Packers. They allowed 29 and 30 points to those two teams. So, it appears this will be a high scoring game, where points are the better option. Minnesota qualifies in some terrific situations this week, while KC qualifies in some negative situations. KC qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 74-38-3 (5-2 TY) play against situation. That same situation played against Minnesota last week. KC also qualifies in another negative scheduling situation, which is a 98-52-3 play against situation. The Vikings are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY) and Minnesota qualifies in a last home game situation, which is 64-32-4. Minnesota also qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 75-30-4 and 46-12-3. Final numbers, before accounting for the situations Minnesota qualifies in, show KC by two points (all games), 3.5 points (last five games) and by two points (home/away numbers). This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 36-13-1. I was reluctant to go over in this game because my general numbers don't support such a high total, showing 55 points (all games), 52 points (last five games) and 46 points (home/away games). But, when I break down the numbers as I have here, against good and bad offenses and defenses, I think we have an excellent chance at both teams reaching 30 points each. The only fear would be Minnesota getting ahead by a comfortable margin and resorting to running the ball to keep their defense off the field. But, I think the KC offense is good enough to stay in this game and force Minnesota to move the ball through the air as well. Lastly, KC hasn't won a road game by more than seven points all year against a good team. That means Minnesota should stay in this game to the end, always having the ability to get a late score and cover. And, Minnesota is now 20-6 ATS as a home dog (or pick) since 1990 and 10-0 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of .800 or greater. MINNESOTA 35 KANSAS CITY 30
New England -3 NY JETS 35
Have to certainly respect what Bill Belichick has done to this point with this NE team. After all, I believe they only have two Pro Bowlers, yet have the best record in the league. That's a testimony to Belichick and his staff. But, as good as NE is and has played, this is not a good spot for them and their games have been much closer than one might think with a 12-2 team. Maybe that's just another credit to Belichick because his teams win the close games, but I think they are ripe to lose a game against a Jets team that is playing well. Over the last ten years in NY, NE has won only three games by more than three points here and only two by more than four points. One was last year, but that was when the Jets still had Vinny at quarterback early in the season. The previous game had a bad defense and good offense (KC) laying points on the road. This game has a below average offense but good defense laying points on the road. NE still can't run the ball, averaging just 2.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games and the offense, as a whole, is averaging just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. The defense continues to play terrific, allowing just 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl over their last five games. And, on the road this year, they have been great, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl. For the Jets, they have been playing solid ball as of late, gaining 5.4 yppl against 4.7 yppl over their last five games. That includes rushing for 4.3 ypr against 3.7 ypr and throwing for 6.4 yps against 5.4 yps. The defense has been average, allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl. NY had allowed a long string of 100 yard rushers this year, doing so in six straight games and ten of eleven games at one point. But, in the three games they haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher, which has been two of their past three, they are 3-0 SU. All three of those games came at home against Buffalo (who was banged up), against Tennessee and last week against Pittsburgh. NE has only rushed for 100 yards in five games this year so it isn't like they need to get to 100 yards to win their games. The Jets pass defense has been below average on the road this year but is above average at home, allowing 5.5 yps against 5.6 yps. It's much different when laying points on the road and despite all the success NE has had this year, this is only the second game they will be laying points on the road. They failed in their first try, winning SU at Houston 23-20 in OT, laying -5.5 points. They did dominate that game from a stats perspective but turnovers and missed opportunities did them in. NE has had what could be considered lucky or close wins this year on the road. They have defeated Philadelphia soundly early in the year when Philly wasn't playing very well. They lost to Washington by three points, defeated Miami by six in OT and should have lost that game if not for missed field goals by Miami. They beat Denver on a last second touchdown by four, beat Houston by three in OT, although they did dominate that game and beat Indy by four, again holding Indy on a last second try for a score, although they led comfortably that whole game. The point being, when getting points on the road, their covers are rather easy, but when being asked to lay points on the road, these games would be much closer to not covering. Surprisingly, Belichick has only been favored on the road in eight games in his career with NE. He is now 2-6 ATS in those games, including being 0-5 ATS when laying less than six points. Meaning, in the real close games, he has failed. Jets haven't lost a home game by more than three points since Pennington came back to start. And, as you would expect, they qualify in some terrific situations this weekend. NY qualifies in a momentum home dog situation, which is 155-105-10 (3-0 TY). They also qualify in a turnover situation, which is 76-29-1 and a turnover table subset, which is 141-82-4. Once again, I have talked all season about teams not covering versus teams who are covering. The play is on the teams not covering and the Jets qualify in a situation, based on that premise, which is 277-183-21 (12-8-2 TY). Final numbers favor the Jets by 3.5 points (all games), by .5 point (last five games) and NE by three points (home/away games). The Jets are playing well and qualify in terrific situations this week against a NE team who has played great "team" ball, but I think their good fortunes run out this week. NY JETS 20 NEW ENGLAND 13
BUFFALO -1.5 Miami 34
Miami is beginning to finish the season just like they seem to do every season, by losing. They are now 20-41-2 ATS in the month of December (regular season) since 1988. That record includes being 16-19-2 at home and 4-22-0 on the road. That record also includes a record of 2-11 on the road in December in northern cities, playing outside, where it is considerably colder than it is in Miami. Nine of those thirteen games, they have lost by three or more points. Miami's offense continues to play below average, gaining just 4.5 yppl against 4.8 yppl. The defense is playing well, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The Bills continue to play better and they are rushing the ball extremely well right now, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. They still struggle throwing the ball, averaging just 4.9 yps against 6.3 yps. Meanwhile, the defense continues to play better than any other teams in the league. They allow only 16 points per game and only TB allows fewer points per game. NE is also allowing only 16 points but they have faced offenses that are averaging 20 points per game, while Buffalo has faced offenses that have averaged 21 points per game. From a yards per play perspective, Buffalo is allowing just 4.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl, which is tied with Baltimore for the best numbers in the league. Buffalo allowed Philadelphia 23 points early in the season, but other than that, they haven't allowed more than 17 points to any team at home. Those 17 points were to Indianapolis, who has a far superior offense to that of Miami. Buffalo has scored at least 10 points in every home game this year. I just don't see Miami scoring more than 13 points and the Buffalo offense has performed well enough to score at least 17 points in this game. Buffalo qualifies in a last home game situation, which is 64-32-4 and they are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers favor Miami by .5 point (all games), Buffalo by 5.5 points (last five games) and this game even (home/away games). This game should also be a low scoring game and I would favor the under here as well. BUFFALO 20 MIAMI 10
Baltimore -3 CLEVELAND 36.5
Baltimore lost at Oakland last week, 12-20, but they controlled that game, stat wise. They simply turned the ball over three times to zero for Oakland and that cost them the game. The Ravens gained 319 yards to 265 for Oakland and 5.2 yppl to 4.0 yppl. The Ravens have won three out of four here in Cleveland since 1999. Baltimore's offense has improved and they are now averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.4 yppl, including 5.7 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games (same time period that Anthony Wright took over). That may not sound like much but it is a huge improvement in their passing game over what they had before. But, during that same time period, their rushing offense is averaging just 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. The defense continues to play well, allowing 4.3 yppl against 5.4 yppl. The problem for Baltimore is they have now played seven road games and lost five of those seven, including the last four in a row at Cincinnati, St. Louis, Miami and Oakland. For Cleveland, they put up a big time effort last week in Denver, only to lose by three in OT. Cleveland only gained 275 yards in that game to 417 yards for Denver but those numbers are very misleading. They actually out gained Denver, 5.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl and those are the important numbers. Cleveland is now averaging 5.3 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games and allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl during that same time span. Baltimore qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 161-91-8 play against situation this week. Cleveland also qualifies in our play on teams not covering the spread against teams covering the spread, which is 277-183-21 (12-8-2 TY). But, Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY) and they qualify in a subset, which is 246-141-13 (18-10-2 TY). The situations go both ways and I will lean with what I think is the better team. Final numbers suggest a pick 'em (all games), Baltimore by .5 point (last five games) and Cleveland by one (home/away games). Numbers lean slightly to Cleveland but I like the fundamental situation Baltimore qualifies in. Cleveland has played three good teams at home this year and lost to all three by three or more. They lost to Indy by three, Cincinnati by seven and St. Louis by six. BALTIMORE 20 CLEVELAND 13
CHICAGO -4.5 Washington 34.5
Not much to play for here but pride. The Bears got the win and cover for me last week, but they were lucky to do so. They were out gained by Minnesota, 393-232 and 5.3 yppl to 4.3 yppl. For Washington, well, it wasn't pretty, losing 0-27 and getting out gained 326-161 and 4.5 yppl to 3.0 yppl. Bears are 3-0 has a home favorite this year, while Washington is 5-2 as a road dog this year. Bears offense continues to be anemic, gaining just 4.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl over the last five games and their defense continues to play well, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.3 yppl. For Washington, the offense is just as anemic, gaining just 4.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl but the defense is worse, allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Washington qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Chicago by 3.5 points (all games), by five points (last five games) and Washington by one point (home/away games). I will lean with Washington based on the situation. CHICAGO 20 WASHINGTON 17
ST LOUIS -6.5 Cincinnati 52.5
I've made a habit of going against the Rams this year, and at times, going against Cincinnati as well. While I believe both teams are overrated, at least the Rams are in an environment that favors them much better than Cincinnati. I think Cincinnati has had a great season and their team is certainly on the right track, but they are not there yet. Cincinnati has played just one game on the road this year against a team over .500. They lost that game badly to Baltimore, 13-31. In fact, since 1990, Cincinnati is just 1-16-1 ATS when getting less than 13 points and facing a team on the road with a win percentage of .667 or greater. That includes a 0-3 mark when Cincy is .500 or better. The Cincinnati defense has not played well over their last five games, allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.5 yppl. The offense has performed well, gaining 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl. They'll face a Rams offense, which continues to be just a bit above average, gaining 5.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl, and a Rams defense, which is allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. Cincinnati has run the ball extremely well over their last five games, gaining 5.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr and that could cause trouble against the Rams defense, which is allowing 5.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. At home this year, the Rams have allowed just 4.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr so they have played much better at home, against the rush. On the road this year, Cincinnati has gained just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr, so maybe the home/road dichotomy will prevail here. Cincinnati qualifies in a couple of similar negative late season situations that are based on their poor defensive performances last week and the week before, which are 42-14-2 and 75-32-2 and plays against Cincinnati this week. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is a 304-228-11 (18-12 TY) play. Final numbers favor the Rams by 4.5 points (all games), six points (last five games) and by 11 points (home/away games). Those numbers also predict 53 points (all games), 58 points (last five games) and 49 points (home/away games). ST LOUIS 30 CINCINNATI 17
CAROLINA -9.5 Detroit 37
Carolina won last week but, as usual, it didn't come easy. There really isn't any reason to think they can blow away the Lions this week. Yes, the Lions are one of the two or three worse teams in the league, in all likelihood, but Carolina just doesn't blow anyone away. Carolina's wins this year have been by 1, 3, 20, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, and 3. Those numbers don't look like numbers of a team to cover a -9.5 point spread. Detroit has lost but three road games by more than 10 points. Now, I'm not here to suggest Detroit is a play this week, only to say Carolina isn't blowing anyone away. Carolina, known for their rushing ability, has been terrible running the ball lately. Last week it was for just 67 yards at 3.7 ypr and over their last five games, it has been just 3.3 ypr against 4.6 ypr. Their passing game has been solid, gaining 7.2 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games and that should match up well against a Detroit pass defense, which is allowing 8.0 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. The Lions rush defense is allowing just 4.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. On defense, Carolina has been above average, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.8 yppl and they should have no trouble stopping a Lions offense that is averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Detroit qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY) but they also qualify in a negative late season situation, which plays against teams who suffer poor defensive efforts in their previous game. That situation plays against the Lions and is 75-32-2. Final numbers predict Carolina by 8.5 points (all games), seven points (last five games) and by five points (home/away games). CAROLINA 21 DETROIT 14
JACKSONVILLE -1.5 New Orleans 42
Situations go both ways here as NO qualifies in a situation that plays on teams who get back to .500 after losing their previous game to fall back to .500. That situation is 104-60-4 and won with GB over SF a few weeks back. But, Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-58-8. Both team's offenses are above average, with Jacksonville averaging 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl and NO averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl. But, the big difference here is in the defense, where Jacksonville has a decided advantage. They are allowing just 3.9 yppl against 4.7 yppl over their last five games, including just 3.1 ypr against 3.5 ypr and 4.6 yps against 5.8 yps. NO, on offense, is running the ball well, gaining 5.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr, but they'll find that a little tougher against Jacksonville. And the Saints pass offense is a bit below average, gaining just 5.7 yps against 5.9 yps. The Saints defense has been below average, allowing 5.3 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.3 yps for a total of 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl. That should work just fine for a Jacksonville offense, which is above average with both, the run and the pass, averaging 4.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.5 yps. Final numbers suggest Jacksonville by two (all games), by four (last five games) and NO by two (home/away games). I like Jacksonville. JACKSONVILLE 23 NEW ORLEANS 20
DALLAS -11 NY Giants 35
What can I say? The Giants are decimated with injuries and Dallas needs the win. But, remember this. The Giants are playing to win the game SU. The Cowboys are playing to win the game SU, not cover the spread. They will be content to win this game by ten or seven points, etc. Giants qualify in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY) and are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers show Dallas by 7.5 points (all games), by 13 points (last five games) and the Giants by one point (home/away games). That home/away games number is obviously skewed because of the injuries, etc. The point here is the situations lie with the Giants. You can decide on your own but I will almost always lean with the situations, which are a long term 55%+ winner. DALLAS 23 NY GIANTS 14
Tennessee NL HOUSTON
Very tough to make a call on this game without knowing who will be playing for Tennessee. Houston, meanwhile, has suffered some injuries over the last couple of weeks that have really hurt their performance. Houston qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers suggest Tennessee by 8.5 points (all games), 3.5 points (last five games) and by 10 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, if the total is 38 or higher, that is 304-228-11. I will predict Tennessee to win by seven and let the line decide where I lean. TENNESSEE 21 HOUSTON 14
PITTSBURGH -6 San Diego 39
Yet another game that nobody really cares about. I do have an under situation on this game, which is 79-43-1 (6-2 TY) and almost decided to play this game under, but decided to leave it off the card in the end. The SD defense has actually played much better lately, allowing just 5.1 yppl against 5.5 yppl over their last five games. That includes being above average against both, the run and the pass. At the same time, their offense has slipped back a little, gaining just 5.4 yppl against 5.6 yppl over their last five games, being below average with both, the run and the pass. For Pittsburgh, similar situation. Their offense has been below average, gaining just 4.7 yppl against 5.4 yppl but their defense has been above average, allowing just 5.2 yppl against 5.5 yppl over their last five games. SD qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-218-11 (15-11-1 TY). SD also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY) and a subset of that, which is 431-300-24 (33-17-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Pittsburgh by 4.5 points (all games), six points (last five games) and SD by three points (home/away games). I like SD, with the better running game, here. PITTSBURGH 20 SAN DIEGO 17
PHILADELPHIA -7.5 San Francisco 41
Philly continues to play exceptional football. They have now won nine straight games and are averaging a remarkable 6.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. The defense has been below average during that time, allowing 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Their rushing defense, which has been talked about for some time now, is allowing 5.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The pass defense is allowing 5.4 yps against 5.4 yps. Perhaps some of this poor defense, if you will, is because their offense has performed so well. The offense is averaging 5.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 8.0 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. That is outstanding. For the 49ers, it's a very similar scenario to Philly, minus the wins, of course. Their offense is averaging 6.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl, gaining 5.1 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 7.0 yps against 6.1 yps. On defense, they are allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.7 yps for a total of 5.1 yps against 5.0 yps. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 304-228-11 and 18-12 this year. But, having said that, this game also has everything I look for when playing an over, including great value, suggesting 44 points (all games), 62 points (last five games) and 45 points (home/away games). It isn't often I will suggest to go against the great situations I use, but this is one of them. The total in this game is 41 points. Since their loss to NE, Philly has now scored at least 24 points in every home game this year, including 36 and 33 in their two previous home games. They have now scored at least 26 points in each of their last five games. SF has allowed 35 points at Minnesota, 44 points at Baltimore and 41 points at Cincinnati. Those three teams are the only teams they have played on the road this year, who are average to above average in their home contests in terms of yards per play. That averages out to 40 points per game. Philly has averaged 28 points at home against the four below average defenses they have played at home this year. That should amount to Philly being able to score around 30-34 points in this game. SF has averaged about 19 points per game on the road against the three average-to-below average defenses they have faced this year. Philly has also allowed about 19 points per game to the five teams they have played at home this year, who are above average on offense in their road games. As for the side, SF qualifies in a contrary situation, which has been fantastic, going 107-52-2, including 5-0 this year. SF also qualifies in a late season situation, which plays against road teams after poor defensive efforts in their previous game, which is 75-32-2. That situation plays against SF, so the situations cancel each other out. But, I will lean with SF, despite their 0-7 SU road record, because I believe they might be able to run the ball enough to keep this game close, even though the breakdown I just went through above doesn't necessarily support them. I do like the over in this game, despite the situation playing against it. You won't find me going against my own situations very often. PHILADELPHIA 33 SAN FRANCISCO 26
SEATTLE -13.5 Arizona 43.5
See the Giants write-up. Nothing I can say here can justify taking Arizona, from a fundamental standpoint. After all, they have lost their previous seven road games by an average of 24 points per game. Seattle has gone 7-0 SU at home and averaged winning those games by 12 points per game, including by an average of 24 points per game against the two teams with four or fewer wins this season (Arizona has three wins). So, this certainly has the makings of being about a 24 point game. Arizona qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 302-228-11 (15-11-1 TY) and they are a turnover table play, which is 805-625-36 (36-29-4 TY). Final numbers suggest Seattle by 12.5 points (all games), by 12 points (last five games) and by 23 points (home/away games). I'll lean with Arizona because of the situations, but you have to have a lot of balls to take Arizona this week. If this line were less than 10 points, Seattle would qualify in a bounce back situation that is 30-10-1. SEATTLE 31 ARIZONA 20
INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 Denver 48
I doubt Clinton Portis will play in this game. I've sprained my knee before and, although every sprain is different, I find it hard to believe he can come back in just one week, and attempt to take the beating running backs take in the NFL. Denver does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY), including the best subset, which is 141-60-6 (12-6-1 TY). Denver is playing well right now, averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including rushing for 5.5 ypr against 4.6 ypr and passing for 6.0 yps against 5.9 yps. Their defense has also played well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Indy is also playing well, gaining 5.6 yppl against 4.7 yppl, including 7.0 yps against 5.7 yps. The defense is another story, however, allowing 5.0 yppl against 4.8 yppl, which includes allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr. All of these numbers are significant because Denver runs the ball well (5.5 ypr against 4.6 ypr last five) and will face an Indy rush defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr. And the great passing offense of Indy, averaging 7.0 yps against 5.7 yps (last five games) faces a good Denver pass defense, which is allowing just 5.2 yps against 6.1 yps (last five games). The situation favors Denver as does the match-up, regardless if Portis plays or not, I believe. Final numbers favor Indy by 3.5 points (all games), by two points (last five games) and Denver by four points (home/away games). Denver lost by one against a similar Kansas City team on the road and they were blown out at Minnesota and Baltimore but those games were without Plummer. Indy lost to the only other team they have played at home this year that runs the ball well and is a decent team (or was running the ball well when they played them) and that is Carolina. I like Denver here getting the points. I also have a situation, which plays on the under and is 226-123-6 (10-6 TY). Final points, however, suggest about 53 points (all games), 57 points (last five games) and 46 points (home/away games). That's enough to keep my from playing the under. Unlike the Philly game, I will still lean to the under. Going under 48 points is much easier than 41 points and there is one good defense in this game. INDIANAPOLIS 24 DENVER 23
Green Bay -5 OAKLAND 44
Another game, which just like last week, Oakland qualifies as a best bet, but GB has a pretty good situation favoring them that I am not eager to go against. Baltimore qualified in the same situation last week, although they also qualified in subsets of that situation, which GB doesn't qualify in this week. I passed last week and it cost me a win, but I will remain consistent and pass again this week, although the overall situations favor Oakland to cover this game. The Packers season has been a strange season in that nobody could stop their running game for a four game stretch earlier in the year. Now, all of a sudden, they can't run the ball, but they are throwing the ball very well. That probably bodes well for them because teams will not be able to game plan against just one facet of their offense. I suspect they will try very hard to get their running game going this week. The Packers were in control for the majority of the game last week, lost the lead for two plays, and then took the lead back and were in control the rest of the way. They averaged 6.0 yppl last week and allowed 5.5 yppl to SD. Take out a broken coverage 68 yard touchdown toss to Tomlinson and they allowed just 4.7 yppl. The Packers offense is averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games but 6.5 yps against 5.8 yps over that same time span. The defense has played well over their last five games, allowing just 3.9 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.7 yps for a total of 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Included in that was allowing a SD offense, which is averaging 5.0 ypr for the season and 5.2 ypr at home, to gain just 3.3 ypr last week. The addition of Grady Jackson has really helped the Packers defense. For Oakland, they lost a game to the Broncos three games ago, 8-22, but out played Denver in that game, only to lose because of multiple turnovers. Last week, they defeated Baltimore, 20-12, but were out played in that game, losing the yardage battle, 265-319, the yards per play battle, 4.0-5.2, but won the turnover battle 3-0. The numbers really aren't that impressive for Oakland, gaining just 4.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games and allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl, including 6.9 yps against 6.3 yps. The Packers recent success, both in the win column and on offense, sets them up in a negative situation, which is a 82-42-5 (4-2 TY) play against them here. The Raiders also qualify in a turnover situation, which is a 76-29-1 play that plays against teams who have been successful in the turnover battle over their last couple of games. Chances are that luck/good fortune will not continue this week. Once again, teams not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread, are profitable plays, and Oakland qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 277-183-21 (12-8-2 TY). GB does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-406-33 (44-26-4 TY) but they don't qualify in the better subsets of that situation. Final numbers favor GB by six points (all games), by 4.5 points (last five games) and by six points (home/away games). Because of the fundamental rushing situation, I will not play Oakland this week, but they do qualify as best bet potential. GREEN BAY 21 OAKLAND 20
BEST BETS
YTD 55-38-5 +30.80%
3% MINNESOTA +3
3% NY JETS +3
2% KC/MINNESOTA OVER 53.5
2% BUFFALO -2
STRONG OPINION
SF/PHILADELPHIA OVER 41
