I am playing an abnormally high amount of games, as I deem a disconnect in this weeks market price and my intrinsic worth, as I see too much stock being put into teams recent performances and weather.
Niners @ Rams
Play: Rams +5.5
The Niners have covered five of their seven games with Singletary as head coach, and covered five of their six games with Hill as their starting quarterback. The Rams on the other hand have gone in a complete opposite direction, covering just one of their last eight games. Why would anyone bet the Rams? Simply put, these two variables have inflated the line drastically, as oddsmakers were put in such a position to reverse in influx of momentum money. The reality is, the Niners are still a below average team, and below average teams don’t warrant being such big favorites on the road.
The Niners offense has improved with Hill as their quarterback. However, let’s not get carried away. They are still one of the worst offenses in the league, and have been unable to surpass ten points in their last two road games. Being without their best offensive weapon (or having him play at well below 100 percent) will only make matters worse for this offense and make it harder for the Niners to capitalize against one of the leagues worst defenses. The Niners are moving the ball decently of late, but once again, are witnessing a year in which red zone struggles have taken points off the board. The Niners struggled against the blitz last week, while the Rams productivity on blitz packages was their best performance last week. This can be another x factor that will keep points off the board.
During their first meeting against the Niners, the Rams were without their best players Jackson. With him, they are a completely different offense. Expect him to be able to establish a running game, take the pressure off of Bulger , and prevent the Niners from establish a heavy dose of blitzes that has given the Rams problems.
The Niners have won just seven road games in the last four seasons. No matter how you slice it, you can’t justifiably make them such a large road favorite. Although the Rams leave a lot to be desired, they should keep this game respectable and possibly win. Too many points to pass up.
Bengals @ Browns
Play: Browns -3
Both teams caught much more attention last week than they are accustomed to getting. The Bengals are coming off a huge home upset victory that knocked the Redskins out of any playoff hope. The Browns got dominated on Monday Night football on a road game where their offense never showed up. What has these two events help lead to? It has lead to the better team being priced as equals, by having to lay just a field goal at home.
Believe it or not, the Browns actually have a decent defense. It is a defense that has been getting progressively better and has shown no signs of let up late in the season when they have had nothing to play for. The Browns defense has the edge in both defending the run and the pass against what might be the most dormant offense in the league. Benson’s performance last week was more of an anomaly than substance. Once again, the Bengals will once again have to rely on Fitzpatrick to win the game, something in which he has not capable of when playing on the road. This has a lot of reason to do with the Bengals only covering one road game all season, and also not being able to surpass the ten point clip in any oft their last three road games. Fitzpatrick has also struggled most against 3-4 defenses this season, including his first meeting against the Browns.
No one wants to back Dorsey, but Sunday may be a good time to do such. He shook off rust during his first two games, and now gets to face one of the worst pass defenses in the league. During his first two, he played against top tier defenses. They were also defenses that were able to shut down the running game, putting pressure on him to produce. The Bengals don’t have the run defense that can shutdown anyone, nor the secondary or pass rush to wreak havoc on Dorsey like his first two opponents.
It is not often that you can lay only three points against the Bengals playing on the road. They have been dead money on the road all season at much more generous odds. I can’t pass up going against them at this price.
Chargers @ Bucs
Play: Bucs -3.5
I haven’t seen a market as stubborn (in some time) with artificially inflating a team like they have been with the Chargers this season. The market had high expectations with them from day one, and no matter how many clues they have given showing they are nothing more than an average team, the market still prices them as a contender. One would think that after needing a miracle victory against the Chiefs to keep their slim playoff hopes alive would probably strike reality to the market, but once again, they are prices as overvalued underdogs.
The market has become gun-shy on the Bucs, but I think it may be premature. After facing a couple solid defenses in a row, they finally get to face one of the worst, a role they have taken advantage of this season. They also have their starting quarterback back behind center to exploit it. The Bucs offense is dependent on the run. Facing a Chargers defense will allow the Bucs to establish the running game to allow the entire offense to work within their means. The Chargers have also struggled most against offenses capable of chipping away at the field, keeping their defense on the field, and thus keeping the Chargers offense off of it. This is exactly what the Bucs offense is designed to do, and should have success doing it against the Chargers.
During the first half of the season, the Chargers sub par play was predominantly predicated on their defense. Recently, the offense has played poorly as well. Their running game can’t get anything going, something unfortunate for their chances, as the Bucs have shown a potential leak in their run defense. However, they still possess a more than solid enough run defense to keep Tomlinson from breaking out. The Chargers only strength is their passing game. However, the Bucs biggest strength is their pass defense. This should limit the production the Chargers have in the air, which should allow the decline they have had on offense to continue.
The Bucs are the better team, playing at home where they have covered four of six, and are more desperate than their opponents. The current market price is a small price to pay for all their favorable advantages. Once again, the Chargers are overpriced. I will once again bet against them.
Eagles @ Redskins
Play: Redskins +5.5
The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in football and playing for their playoff lives. The Redskins are one of the coldest teams in football, and got their playoff hopes taken away from them last week losing to one of the worst teams in football. However, late in the season, momentum is magnified in the market, and therefore, more times than not creates the value on the team playing against the team that can not lose. In my opinion, this game is no different.
The Eagles are a solid team. However, their offense is still not out of the woodworks. Their two breakout games were against a Cardinals defense that is getting dominated by any offense of late, and against the Browns, who actually held their own against them. Against the Giants, they played average. Prior to that, it appeared that their offense was done. The Redskins defense is still decent and playing with pride. They can hold their own against the Eagles offense.
The Redskins offense has gotten progressively worse and the Eagles defense is one of the best in the league. However, during their downward trend, the Redskins have faced some of the best defenses in the league. They played well against the Eagles during their first meeting, and one of the strengths the Eagles have on defense, complexity, is neutralized by familiarity the Redskins have with them.
Weather in this game could put a damper on the passing game and magnify the run. The Eagles are heavily dependent on the pass, while the Redskins more dependent on the run. Not only does poor weather neutralize teams, hence favoring the inferior Redskins, but also compliments their style of play.
Whenever you combine a team in a “must win” against a team “that can’t buy a win”, the market overloads on the former. This appears to have happened once again in this game. I will take the team that can’t buy a win, and the points that are being compensated for such.
Steelers @ Titans
Play: Titans +2
Once again, I am continuing with this week’s theme that the market is overreacting to what has transpired over the last couple of weeks. This game is a perfect example, as the market has made the AFC’s best team (if the Colts aren’t construed as such), and a team that has covered 11 of 14 games this season, a home underdog. How did this happen? The market can’t get enough of the Steelers, a team that should have lost to both the Cowboys and Ravens, a result that if came to fruition, would have made them large underdogs.
The Steelers offense hasn’t proven anything during their recent run. At best, they proved they are less vulnerable to mistakes compared to earlier in the season. Their running game is still suspect, and even without the Titans two best defensive lineman, the Steelers should once again struggle establishing a ground game. Ben has played better of late, but the Steelers still have a mediocre passing game at best. Their offensive line struggles giving him time, and the lack of depth at receiving makes them much easier to defend. The Titans have an elite pass defense, and should be able to limit the production the Steelers have in the air as well.
Although the Titans offense will also have a tough task this week, they are not only a better offense than their counterparts, but also less prone to making mistakes. The Titans potent running game should do enough in this game to provide the Titans with scoring opportunities. Although their passing attack will be at a disadvantage, it is an ideal passing game to counter the Steelers. Their offensive line has done an excellent job against blitzes and premier pass rushes, while Collins being a manager and not trying to make too much happen is ideal against a Steelers defense that can make you pay if you get greedy.
It should take a lot more than a lucky Steelers team with their fair share of holes to make the Titans home dogs. The Titans are fighting for home field advantage. This should be a game where they use their home field advantage in their favor, and show why it is worth fighting for.
Cardinals @ Patriots
Play: Cardinals +9
Were the Cardinals four point favorites to the Vikings just last week? What has transpired in just six days to make them nearly double digit underdogs to a Patriots team no better than the Vikings. Not much. Once again, the market is overreacting to what they have recently saw, thus allowing value opportunities into backing teams that have looked bad of late.
The Patriots defense is very bad. They just have not been able to really show how bad they are in recent games, as they have not faced the most potent of offenses. Their biggest weakness is their pass defense, which is one of the worst in the league. Their ability to defend the run decently will not matter much against a team that passes more than any other in the league. Expect the Cardinals to attack the Patriots weakness from the onset, and use their talented receiving options to exploit the Patriots lack of depth in their secondary. The result will more than likely be the Cardinals putting up enough points to demand too much out of the Patirots offense to cover the spread.
The Cardinals defense has been struggling very much of late. However, they are not as bad as recent form, although they are being priced as such. Cassell has much less experience than Warner playing in the expected weather conditions. The Cardinals, much like the Patriots are more vulnerable against the pass. However, the Patriots passing attack is not nearly as potent are capable of attacking their opponents pass defenses deficiencies. The Patriots will more than likely have success on offense, but enough to warrant this line is in doubt.
The Cardinals have been slumping of late; have never been a good road team, and dome teams playing in cold weather leaves a lot to be desired. However, even with all these unfavorable intangibles, this line is simply not warranted. The Cardinals are too good of a team to warrant a line like this against an overrated Patriots team. I will take the points.
Bills @ Broncos
Play: Broncos -6
There is so much anti Denver sentiment out right now, that the market is willing to back a Bills team that has not covered six of their last eight games and continue to get more demoralized each week. In my opinion, the anti sentiment is wrongly misguided, at it should be at this Bills team, and not a Broncos team whose inconsistencies all year have made them vulnerable to blowouts similar to last week. Let’s not forget, this is the same Broncos team that had covered four of their last five prior to the Panthers game. in my opinion, it is risky to put too much stock in any recent performance from the Broncos. Last weeks performance has fortunately put enough value on this team that I am now willing to back.
I have said it all year that the Bills are a below average team. They are getting progressively worse, and the return of Edwards won’t make much of a difference, as he too was struggling prior to his injury. The Broncos season has been hampered by their defense. Although they are mostly labeled as a defense that can not stop the run, it is their pass defense that is their biggest Achilles heal. However, the Bills passing game is as dormant as it gets. The possible return of Bailey, the potential weather effects, the rust of Edwards and depreciating offense are all variables that will help mask this deficiency. With the way the Broncos should be able to move the ball against this Bills defense, the Bills having an edge in the running game is simply not enough for them to keep this game close-especially if they are forced to abandon it early due to a potential deficit.
The Broncos possess one of the best offenses in the league. They have become potent on the ground as well as in the air, and laying large points de-magnified by their scoring ability. The Bills defense is bad and getting worse. They also struggle more on the road. Expect the Broncos to consistently pick apart this defense both on the ground and in the air, thus putting a lot of pressure on a struggling Bills offense to keep this game close.
The Bills are one non-playoff team that will find it hard to get up for this game. They are coming off of two divisional rivalry losses that knocked any playoff hope out. They are losers or seven of their last eight, and playing in the cold of Denver will surely not make it any easier to get up for this game. The Broncos want to avoid next weeks game with the Chargers meaning anything. Their high variance of performance makes them good candidates as large favorites, as high variance decreases the importance of points. I will take the home favorite in this game.
Panthers @ Giants
Play: Giants -3.5
The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in football, and have quickly become a legitimate contender. The Giants have gone from the consensus best team in the league to a team that has shown some leaks and incapable of overcoming injuries during the last two weeks. However, once again, the market is acting very fickle. The Giants are still the better team, and have favorable fundamental advantages that magnify their strengths against the Panthers.
Unlike the Giants, the Panthers still have a clear cut weakness that they have to deal with and that can get exploited- their run defense. Unfortunately for their chances, they face if not the best run game in the league, one of the best. The Giants will also be getting back their star running back Jacobs, who has been missed. His return should not only reopen their running game, but will also open up their passing game that has struggled without Burress. However, the Giants recent struggles in the air, has been predicated on the absence of a solid ground game more than the absence of any one reason, as pointed out when they played the Redskins without Burress three weeks back.
The Panthers offense has been on fire of late, but they will meet their toughest test to date. In fact, the Panthers have had one of the softest schedules when it comes to facing quality defenses. The Giants ability to stop both the run and pass should cause problems for a Panthers offense that possesses balance and the ability to attack defensive weaknesses quite well.
Home field advantage magnified? Although the Giants have shown not much of a disparity between home and road games, this game being played at home should pay handsome dividends. The Panthers do not have much experience in this weather. Nor have they proven anything on the road all season. After needing a last play miracle in San Diego, the Panthers got dominated in Minny, in Tampa Bay, won very ugly in Oakland, got beat up in Atlanta, and needed a last minute come back in Green Bay to beat a falling knife team.
Good time to back the Giants. The market apparently underestimated their potency during their hot streak, as they covered 10 of their first 13. Don’t think they will not underestimate them when they are out of favor and struggling to get things going. I like the home favorite in this one.
Totals
Niners @ Rams
Play: Under 43
Here is a good opportunity to bet an Under in a game priced above median points per game despite possessing two of the most dormant offenses in the league. A large reason why this game is being priced so high, as it was priced as such during their first meeting that went Over the total. However, a lot has changed since then.
Firstly, the Rams were without Jackson. One would think that a team having their best offensive weapon would favor the Over. Not necessarily, and not in this case. The Rams were so ineffective and one dimensional during their first meeting against the Niners due to the absence of Jackson, that their three and outs and turnovers allowed the Niners to score early and often. Expect his return to change things around, prolong drives, eat up clock, and force the Niners into less favorable field position. Still, the Rams possess one of the worst offenses in the league, and the Niners possess one of the hottest defenses. The Rams will find it hard getting points.
The Niners offense has gotten better with Hill, but still struggle putting points on the board. Gore likely out won’t help matters. The Niners possess slight advantages in both the ground game and passing game, which is favorable to the Under, as it leads to grind it out drives.
Both offenses are two dormant to expect a high scoring game. I don’t expect the Niners to put up anything near the amount of points they scored during their first meeting. The Rams not much more. I will take the Under.
Dolphins @ Chiefs
Play: Over 37.5
I think the market is putting too much stock into any potential material effect it will have on the outcome of the game, and ignoring key fundamental variables that favor the Over.
The Chiefs offense has gotten progressively better since Thigpen has taken over the quarterback duties. They have averaged 22 points per game in their last five games, and put forth 20 or more points in every one of their home games expect for their first. Both their running game and passing game has gotten progressively better, and although they don’t really have any fundamental edge against the Dolphins defense, the Dolphins defense may be vulnerable in this game. It is a defense not used to playing in freezing weather, and also a defense that is coming off a long travel and a game in which they were on the field for nearly 40 minutes. The Dolphins defense is solid, but this is a good time to play them. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs open up the playbook a bit to take Thigpen for a test drive.
The Chiefs defense has not been improving as the season progressed, and in fact has allowed 30 points per game over their last ten games. Their vulnerability against both the run and the pass should pose problems against a well balanced offense like the Dolphins. One has to wonder how much effort they are going to put forth in this game, coming off three divisional games and a heartbreaking loss. Any early deficit can allow the Dolphins to really pile on points.
Everyone wants a piece of the Under in any Dolphins game after their last three games, and the weather is just icing on the cake for these bettors. I will go the other way. The weather won’t be terribly influential. The Dolphins offense should be too much for the Chiefs, while the Chiefs upward trending offense is catching the Dolphins defense at just the right time. This one should surpass the 40 point clip.
Cardinals @ Patriots
Play: Over 44
Here is another game in which the weather variable effect is over inflated, thus creating value on the Over. Expect the favorable Over fundamentals to overcome the weather. The Patriots have the most overrated defense in the league. It is also a defense that is much more vulnerable to the passing game than the running game, encouraging teams to air it out against them. The Cardinals offense is as one dimensional as it gets already, a trend that should only be magnified against the Patriots. Although the Cardinals passing game has cooled off of late, expect them to have enough success to put up their fair share of points against this Patriots defense. Even if they have regressed, the regression is not necessarily Under friendly, as it has resulted in a lot of three and outs and turnovers.
The Cardinals defense has really been slumping, and traveling east to playing in unfamiliar cold weather against an upward trending offense won’t help matters much. Although their run defense has been especially struggling of late, it is their pass defense that is most vulnerable and deficient. Nonetheless, the Patriots have advantages in both aspect on offense, and should continue their solid play of late against the Cardinals defense.
Both these teams combined have finished Over the market 57% of their games. It is going to take more than weather to reverse course. The best way to get this rate back down is an inflated line. In my opinion, this line is far from inflated. I like the Over in this one.
Bills @ Broncos
Play: Over 45
Once again, the weather has created value on the Over. Out of the three games in which I deemed value due to the weather, this game provides the tamest of weather, and should have an immaterial effect on the outcome of the game. As mentioned in my Broncos write up, the Bills defense is bad, injured, and has nothing to play for. More importantly, they are decisively outmatched in every facet of the game. Expect the Broncos to use their aggressive style to their advantage and pick apart the Bills in the air. The Bills inability to defend the run will allow the Broncos to establish a ground game as a compliment to their passing game. This is a good spot for the Broncos to light up the scoreboard.
If the Broncos had a defense as good as their offense, they would be a Super Bowl contender. However, in reality, their defense is polar opposites of their offense, and is one of the worst in the league. Although the Bills offense is nothing to write home about, it is an offense that has proven capable of putting up a lot of points against poor defenses, including Edwards last complete game as quarterback. The Bills should move the ball well on both the ground and in the air, and are prone to implementing a high passing rate that should benefit the Over if they fall behind early.
Both offenses have the edge in this game, with the Broncos offense having a dominant edge. Expect the Broncos passing game to be too much for the Bills defense, which should put the Bills in a spot in which they have to match points and implement a more aggressive game plan than accustomed too. The result should be this game going Over the mark.
Panthers @ Giants
Play: Over 37
Here is a game whose weather conditions are very commensurate to the games in which I am taking the Over in. The trend continues, as I once again deem the market overreacting to the weather, thus creating value on the Over. Both teams are recognized for having solid defenses, and rightfully so. What I don’t think the market is factoring in is that both offenses deem elite status and have left both opposing defenses with no fundamental edge in this game. As mentioned in my Giants write up, the return of Jacobs is huge. Not only does it open up the running game and allow the Giants to attack the Panthers only weakness, their run defense, but the Giants passing game is heavily predicated on the success of their run game, thus should also benefit from the return of Jacobs. With the Panthers more than likely forced to stack the box, expect Manning to once again be put in position to put forth one of his solid games. The Panthers pass defense has performed well this season on an aggregate level, but aside from last week, they have proven vulnerable against solid passing teams. In my opinion, the Giants should have success in both the running game and the passing game, allowing them to put up a good amount of points.
The Panthers have one of the hottest offenses in the league. Their success has been predicated on their running game, which typically is not beneficial to the Over. However, their home run ability on the ground as well as their passing game being reliant on the run should allow their advantage on the ground to pay off for the Over.
In my opinion, both these offenses are top five best in the league. How this game can warrant a total set below 40 is beyond me. Even with the weather slowing them down a bit, both teams should manage enough points to send this one Over the depressed market price.
Niners @ Rams
Play: Rams +5.5
The Niners have covered five of their seven games with Singletary as head coach, and covered five of their six games with Hill as their starting quarterback. The Rams on the other hand have gone in a complete opposite direction, covering just one of their last eight games. Why would anyone bet the Rams? Simply put, these two variables have inflated the line drastically, as oddsmakers were put in such a position to reverse in influx of momentum money. The reality is, the Niners are still a below average team, and below average teams don’t warrant being such big favorites on the road.
The Niners offense has improved with Hill as their quarterback. However, let’s not get carried away. They are still one of the worst offenses in the league, and have been unable to surpass ten points in their last two road games. Being without their best offensive weapon (or having him play at well below 100 percent) will only make matters worse for this offense and make it harder for the Niners to capitalize against one of the leagues worst defenses. The Niners are moving the ball decently of late, but once again, are witnessing a year in which red zone struggles have taken points off the board. The Niners struggled against the blitz last week, while the Rams productivity on blitz packages was their best performance last week. This can be another x factor that will keep points off the board.
During their first meeting against the Niners, the Rams were without their best players Jackson. With him, they are a completely different offense. Expect him to be able to establish a running game, take the pressure off of Bulger , and prevent the Niners from establish a heavy dose of blitzes that has given the Rams problems.
The Niners have won just seven road games in the last four seasons. No matter how you slice it, you can’t justifiably make them such a large road favorite. Although the Rams leave a lot to be desired, they should keep this game respectable and possibly win. Too many points to pass up.
Bengals @ Browns
Play: Browns -3
Both teams caught much more attention last week than they are accustomed to getting. The Bengals are coming off a huge home upset victory that knocked the Redskins out of any playoff hope. The Browns got dominated on Monday Night football on a road game where their offense never showed up. What has these two events help lead to? It has lead to the better team being priced as equals, by having to lay just a field goal at home.
Believe it or not, the Browns actually have a decent defense. It is a defense that has been getting progressively better and has shown no signs of let up late in the season when they have had nothing to play for. The Browns defense has the edge in both defending the run and the pass against what might be the most dormant offense in the league. Benson’s performance last week was more of an anomaly than substance. Once again, the Bengals will once again have to rely on Fitzpatrick to win the game, something in which he has not capable of when playing on the road. This has a lot of reason to do with the Bengals only covering one road game all season, and also not being able to surpass the ten point clip in any oft their last three road games. Fitzpatrick has also struggled most against 3-4 defenses this season, including his first meeting against the Browns.
No one wants to back Dorsey, but Sunday may be a good time to do such. He shook off rust during his first two games, and now gets to face one of the worst pass defenses in the league. During his first two, he played against top tier defenses. They were also defenses that were able to shut down the running game, putting pressure on him to produce. The Bengals don’t have the run defense that can shutdown anyone, nor the secondary or pass rush to wreak havoc on Dorsey like his first two opponents.
It is not often that you can lay only three points against the Bengals playing on the road. They have been dead money on the road all season at much more generous odds. I can’t pass up going against them at this price.
Chargers @ Bucs
Play: Bucs -3.5
I haven’t seen a market as stubborn (in some time) with artificially inflating a team like they have been with the Chargers this season. The market had high expectations with them from day one, and no matter how many clues they have given showing they are nothing more than an average team, the market still prices them as a contender. One would think that after needing a miracle victory against the Chiefs to keep their slim playoff hopes alive would probably strike reality to the market, but once again, they are prices as overvalued underdogs.
The market has become gun-shy on the Bucs, but I think it may be premature. After facing a couple solid defenses in a row, they finally get to face one of the worst, a role they have taken advantage of this season. They also have their starting quarterback back behind center to exploit it. The Bucs offense is dependent on the run. Facing a Chargers defense will allow the Bucs to establish the running game to allow the entire offense to work within their means. The Chargers have also struggled most against offenses capable of chipping away at the field, keeping their defense on the field, and thus keeping the Chargers offense off of it. This is exactly what the Bucs offense is designed to do, and should have success doing it against the Chargers.
During the first half of the season, the Chargers sub par play was predominantly predicated on their defense. Recently, the offense has played poorly as well. Their running game can’t get anything going, something unfortunate for their chances, as the Bucs have shown a potential leak in their run defense. However, they still possess a more than solid enough run defense to keep Tomlinson from breaking out. The Chargers only strength is their passing game. However, the Bucs biggest strength is their pass defense. This should limit the production the Chargers have in the air, which should allow the decline they have had on offense to continue.
The Bucs are the better team, playing at home where they have covered four of six, and are more desperate than their opponents. The current market price is a small price to pay for all their favorable advantages. Once again, the Chargers are overpriced. I will once again bet against them.
Eagles @ Redskins
Play: Redskins +5.5
The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in football and playing for their playoff lives. The Redskins are one of the coldest teams in football, and got their playoff hopes taken away from them last week losing to one of the worst teams in football. However, late in the season, momentum is magnified in the market, and therefore, more times than not creates the value on the team playing against the team that can not lose. In my opinion, this game is no different.
The Eagles are a solid team. However, their offense is still not out of the woodworks. Their two breakout games were against a Cardinals defense that is getting dominated by any offense of late, and against the Browns, who actually held their own against them. Against the Giants, they played average. Prior to that, it appeared that their offense was done. The Redskins defense is still decent and playing with pride. They can hold their own against the Eagles offense.
The Redskins offense has gotten progressively worse and the Eagles defense is one of the best in the league. However, during their downward trend, the Redskins have faced some of the best defenses in the league. They played well against the Eagles during their first meeting, and one of the strengths the Eagles have on defense, complexity, is neutralized by familiarity the Redskins have with them.
Weather in this game could put a damper on the passing game and magnify the run. The Eagles are heavily dependent on the pass, while the Redskins more dependent on the run. Not only does poor weather neutralize teams, hence favoring the inferior Redskins, but also compliments their style of play.
Whenever you combine a team in a “must win” against a team “that can’t buy a win”, the market overloads on the former. This appears to have happened once again in this game. I will take the team that can’t buy a win, and the points that are being compensated for such.
Steelers @ Titans
Play: Titans +2
Once again, I am continuing with this week’s theme that the market is overreacting to what has transpired over the last couple of weeks. This game is a perfect example, as the market has made the AFC’s best team (if the Colts aren’t construed as such), and a team that has covered 11 of 14 games this season, a home underdog. How did this happen? The market can’t get enough of the Steelers, a team that should have lost to both the Cowboys and Ravens, a result that if came to fruition, would have made them large underdogs.
The Steelers offense hasn’t proven anything during their recent run. At best, they proved they are less vulnerable to mistakes compared to earlier in the season. Their running game is still suspect, and even without the Titans two best defensive lineman, the Steelers should once again struggle establishing a ground game. Ben has played better of late, but the Steelers still have a mediocre passing game at best. Their offensive line struggles giving him time, and the lack of depth at receiving makes them much easier to defend. The Titans have an elite pass defense, and should be able to limit the production the Steelers have in the air as well.
Although the Titans offense will also have a tough task this week, they are not only a better offense than their counterparts, but also less prone to making mistakes. The Titans potent running game should do enough in this game to provide the Titans with scoring opportunities. Although their passing attack will be at a disadvantage, it is an ideal passing game to counter the Steelers. Their offensive line has done an excellent job against blitzes and premier pass rushes, while Collins being a manager and not trying to make too much happen is ideal against a Steelers defense that can make you pay if you get greedy.
It should take a lot more than a lucky Steelers team with their fair share of holes to make the Titans home dogs. The Titans are fighting for home field advantage. This should be a game where they use their home field advantage in their favor, and show why it is worth fighting for.
Cardinals @ Patriots
Play: Cardinals +9
Were the Cardinals four point favorites to the Vikings just last week? What has transpired in just six days to make them nearly double digit underdogs to a Patriots team no better than the Vikings. Not much. Once again, the market is overreacting to what they have recently saw, thus allowing value opportunities into backing teams that have looked bad of late.
The Patriots defense is very bad. They just have not been able to really show how bad they are in recent games, as they have not faced the most potent of offenses. Their biggest weakness is their pass defense, which is one of the worst in the league. Their ability to defend the run decently will not matter much against a team that passes more than any other in the league. Expect the Cardinals to attack the Patriots weakness from the onset, and use their talented receiving options to exploit the Patriots lack of depth in their secondary. The result will more than likely be the Cardinals putting up enough points to demand too much out of the Patirots offense to cover the spread.
The Cardinals defense has been struggling very much of late. However, they are not as bad as recent form, although they are being priced as such. Cassell has much less experience than Warner playing in the expected weather conditions. The Cardinals, much like the Patriots are more vulnerable against the pass. However, the Patriots passing attack is not nearly as potent are capable of attacking their opponents pass defenses deficiencies. The Patriots will more than likely have success on offense, but enough to warrant this line is in doubt.
The Cardinals have been slumping of late; have never been a good road team, and dome teams playing in cold weather leaves a lot to be desired. However, even with all these unfavorable intangibles, this line is simply not warranted. The Cardinals are too good of a team to warrant a line like this against an overrated Patriots team. I will take the points.
Bills @ Broncos
Play: Broncos -6
There is so much anti Denver sentiment out right now, that the market is willing to back a Bills team that has not covered six of their last eight games and continue to get more demoralized each week. In my opinion, the anti sentiment is wrongly misguided, at it should be at this Bills team, and not a Broncos team whose inconsistencies all year have made them vulnerable to blowouts similar to last week. Let’s not forget, this is the same Broncos team that had covered four of their last five prior to the Panthers game. in my opinion, it is risky to put too much stock in any recent performance from the Broncos. Last weeks performance has fortunately put enough value on this team that I am now willing to back.
I have said it all year that the Bills are a below average team. They are getting progressively worse, and the return of Edwards won’t make much of a difference, as he too was struggling prior to his injury. The Broncos season has been hampered by their defense. Although they are mostly labeled as a defense that can not stop the run, it is their pass defense that is their biggest Achilles heal. However, the Bills passing game is as dormant as it gets. The possible return of Bailey, the potential weather effects, the rust of Edwards and depreciating offense are all variables that will help mask this deficiency. With the way the Broncos should be able to move the ball against this Bills defense, the Bills having an edge in the running game is simply not enough for them to keep this game close-especially if they are forced to abandon it early due to a potential deficit.
The Broncos possess one of the best offenses in the league. They have become potent on the ground as well as in the air, and laying large points de-magnified by their scoring ability. The Bills defense is bad and getting worse. They also struggle more on the road. Expect the Broncos to consistently pick apart this defense both on the ground and in the air, thus putting a lot of pressure on a struggling Bills offense to keep this game close.
The Bills are one non-playoff team that will find it hard to get up for this game. They are coming off of two divisional rivalry losses that knocked any playoff hope out. They are losers or seven of their last eight, and playing in the cold of Denver will surely not make it any easier to get up for this game. The Broncos want to avoid next weeks game with the Chargers meaning anything. Their high variance of performance makes them good candidates as large favorites, as high variance decreases the importance of points. I will take the home favorite in this game.
Panthers @ Giants
Play: Giants -3.5
The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in football, and have quickly become a legitimate contender. The Giants have gone from the consensus best team in the league to a team that has shown some leaks and incapable of overcoming injuries during the last two weeks. However, once again, the market is acting very fickle. The Giants are still the better team, and have favorable fundamental advantages that magnify their strengths against the Panthers.
Unlike the Giants, the Panthers still have a clear cut weakness that they have to deal with and that can get exploited- their run defense. Unfortunately for their chances, they face if not the best run game in the league, one of the best. The Giants will also be getting back their star running back Jacobs, who has been missed. His return should not only reopen their running game, but will also open up their passing game that has struggled without Burress. However, the Giants recent struggles in the air, has been predicated on the absence of a solid ground game more than the absence of any one reason, as pointed out when they played the Redskins without Burress three weeks back.
The Panthers offense has been on fire of late, but they will meet their toughest test to date. In fact, the Panthers have had one of the softest schedules when it comes to facing quality defenses. The Giants ability to stop both the run and pass should cause problems for a Panthers offense that possesses balance and the ability to attack defensive weaknesses quite well.
Home field advantage magnified? Although the Giants have shown not much of a disparity between home and road games, this game being played at home should pay handsome dividends. The Panthers do not have much experience in this weather. Nor have they proven anything on the road all season. After needing a last play miracle in San Diego, the Panthers got dominated in Minny, in Tampa Bay, won very ugly in Oakland, got beat up in Atlanta, and needed a last minute come back in Green Bay to beat a falling knife team.
Good time to back the Giants. The market apparently underestimated their potency during their hot streak, as they covered 10 of their first 13. Don’t think they will not underestimate them when they are out of favor and struggling to get things going. I like the home favorite in this one.
Totals
Niners @ Rams
Play: Under 43
Here is a good opportunity to bet an Under in a game priced above median points per game despite possessing two of the most dormant offenses in the league. A large reason why this game is being priced so high, as it was priced as such during their first meeting that went Over the total. However, a lot has changed since then.
Firstly, the Rams were without Jackson. One would think that a team having their best offensive weapon would favor the Over. Not necessarily, and not in this case. The Rams were so ineffective and one dimensional during their first meeting against the Niners due to the absence of Jackson, that their three and outs and turnovers allowed the Niners to score early and often. Expect his return to change things around, prolong drives, eat up clock, and force the Niners into less favorable field position. Still, the Rams possess one of the worst offenses in the league, and the Niners possess one of the hottest defenses. The Rams will find it hard getting points.
The Niners offense has gotten better with Hill, but still struggle putting points on the board. Gore likely out won’t help matters. The Niners possess slight advantages in both the ground game and passing game, which is favorable to the Under, as it leads to grind it out drives.
Both offenses are two dormant to expect a high scoring game. I don’t expect the Niners to put up anything near the amount of points they scored during their first meeting. The Rams not much more. I will take the Under.
Dolphins @ Chiefs
Play: Over 37.5
I think the market is putting too much stock into any potential material effect it will have on the outcome of the game, and ignoring key fundamental variables that favor the Over.
The Chiefs offense has gotten progressively better since Thigpen has taken over the quarterback duties. They have averaged 22 points per game in their last five games, and put forth 20 or more points in every one of their home games expect for their first. Both their running game and passing game has gotten progressively better, and although they don’t really have any fundamental edge against the Dolphins defense, the Dolphins defense may be vulnerable in this game. It is a defense not used to playing in freezing weather, and also a defense that is coming off a long travel and a game in which they were on the field for nearly 40 minutes. The Dolphins defense is solid, but this is a good time to play them. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs open up the playbook a bit to take Thigpen for a test drive.
The Chiefs defense has not been improving as the season progressed, and in fact has allowed 30 points per game over their last ten games. Their vulnerability against both the run and the pass should pose problems against a well balanced offense like the Dolphins. One has to wonder how much effort they are going to put forth in this game, coming off three divisional games and a heartbreaking loss. Any early deficit can allow the Dolphins to really pile on points.
Everyone wants a piece of the Under in any Dolphins game after their last three games, and the weather is just icing on the cake for these bettors. I will go the other way. The weather won’t be terribly influential. The Dolphins offense should be too much for the Chiefs, while the Chiefs upward trending offense is catching the Dolphins defense at just the right time. This one should surpass the 40 point clip.
Cardinals @ Patriots
Play: Over 44
Here is another game in which the weather variable effect is over inflated, thus creating value on the Over. Expect the favorable Over fundamentals to overcome the weather. The Patriots have the most overrated defense in the league. It is also a defense that is much more vulnerable to the passing game than the running game, encouraging teams to air it out against them. The Cardinals offense is as one dimensional as it gets already, a trend that should only be magnified against the Patriots. Although the Cardinals passing game has cooled off of late, expect them to have enough success to put up their fair share of points against this Patriots defense. Even if they have regressed, the regression is not necessarily Under friendly, as it has resulted in a lot of three and outs and turnovers.
The Cardinals defense has really been slumping, and traveling east to playing in unfamiliar cold weather against an upward trending offense won’t help matters much. Although their run defense has been especially struggling of late, it is their pass defense that is most vulnerable and deficient. Nonetheless, the Patriots have advantages in both aspect on offense, and should continue their solid play of late against the Cardinals defense.
Both these teams combined have finished Over the market 57% of their games. It is going to take more than weather to reverse course. The best way to get this rate back down is an inflated line. In my opinion, this line is far from inflated. I like the Over in this one.
Bills @ Broncos
Play: Over 45
Once again, the weather has created value on the Over. Out of the three games in which I deemed value due to the weather, this game provides the tamest of weather, and should have an immaterial effect on the outcome of the game. As mentioned in my Broncos write up, the Bills defense is bad, injured, and has nothing to play for. More importantly, they are decisively outmatched in every facet of the game. Expect the Broncos to use their aggressive style to their advantage and pick apart the Bills in the air. The Bills inability to defend the run will allow the Broncos to establish a ground game as a compliment to their passing game. This is a good spot for the Broncos to light up the scoreboard.
If the Broncos had a defense as good as their offense, they would be a Super Bowl contender. However, in reality, their defense is polar opposites of their offense, and is one of the worst in the league. Although the Bills offense is nothing to write home about, it is an offense that has proven capable of putting up a lot of points against poor defenses, including Edwards last complete game as quarterback. The Bills should move the ball well on both the ground and in the air, and are prone to implementing a high passing rate that should benefit the Over if they fall behind early.
Both offenses have the edge in this game, with the Broncos offense having a dominant edge. Expect the Broncos passing game to be too much for the Bills defense, which should put the Bills in a spot in which they have to match points and implement a more aggressive game plan than accustomed too. The result should be this game going Over the mark.
Panthers @ Giants
Play: Over 37
Here is a game whose weather conditions are very commensurate to the games in which I am taking the Over in. The trend continues, as I once again deem the market overreacting to the weather, thus creating value on the Over. Both teams are recognized for having solid defenses, and rightfully so. What I don’t think the market is factoring in is that both offenses deem elite status and have left both opposing defenses with no fundamental edge in this game. As mentioned in my Giants write up, the return of Jacobs is huge. Not only does it open up the running game and allow the Giants to attack the Panthers only weakness, their run defense, but the Giants passing game is heavily predicated on the success of their run game, thus should also benefit from the return of Jacobs. With the Panthers more than likely forced to stack the box, expect Manning to once again be put in position to put forth one of his solid games. The Panthers pass defense has performed well this season on an aggregate level, but aside from last week, they have proven vulnerable against solid passing teams. In my opinion, the Giants should have success in both the running game and the passing game, allowing them to put up a good amount of points.
The Panthers have one of the hottest offenses in the league. Their success has been predicated on their running game, which typically is not beneficial to the Over. However, their home run ability on the ground as well as their passing game being reliant on the run should allow their advantage on the ground to pay off for the Over.
In my opinion, both these offenses are top five best in the league. How this game can warrant a total set below 40 is beyond me. Even with the weather slowing them down a bit, both teams should manage enough points to send this one Over the depressed market price.
