NFL Week 13 best bets
Welcome to Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season.Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Friday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETDave Tuley: The Vikings (9-2) continue to roll on in their dream season, but this game means a lot more to the playoff-hopeful Jets (7-4) as the Vikes have opened up a five-game lead in the NFC North on the second-place Lions (yes, you read that right).
The Jets have had a roller-coaster of a season as their No. 5 defense helped them win games in spite of starting QB Zach Wilson. Coach Robert Saleh made the move to Mike White (22-for-28, 315 passing yards, 3 TDs) in Week 12, and it paid off in a 31-10 rout of the Bears. It shouldn’t necessarily get harder for White against a Minnesota defense that is No. 31 in yards allowed per game.
Jets backers were able to grab +3.5 on Sunday. Early money dropped the line to +3 everywhere, and some have gone to Jets +3 -115; however, there’s still hope that the line movement might reverse as 72% of the bets at DraftKings sportsbooks have been on the Vikings -3 as well as 72% of the money (current figures can be found on the VSiN Betting Splits page).
Pick: Jets +3
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5, 38)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETDave Tuley: I can already hear the moans from readers: “You’re betting on the Broncos?” Granted, the Broncos have been a dumpster fire on offense this season, ranking No. 25 in yards per game despite the off-season acquisition of Russell Wilson, but they still have the No. 5 defense that has kept them in several games.
But when it comes down to it, this is more of a bet against the Ravens as they’ve led by 9 points or more in every game so far this season; however, they blew their fourth fourth-quarter lead of the season in Sunday’s 28-27 loss to the Jaguars and are just 5-6 ATS as they tend to let teams stick around.
Besides, if looking for a common opponent, the Broncos beat the Jaguars 21-17 in Week 8, so we see no reason they can’t stay within a TD of the Ravens.
Pick: Broncos +8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 42)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETDave Tuley: We’ve actually seen a change of favorites in this game as the Falcons were -1.5 on the advance line last week at the Westgate SuperBook and -1 when it reopened its Week 13 lines on Sunday afternoon. However, after the Steelers beat the Colts 24-17 on Monday Night Football, this has flipped to the Steelers -1, and I’ll gladly take the Falcons as a home dog (albeit the smallest one you can be).
Steelers (4-7) Head Coach Mike Tomlin is trying to avoid his first losing season while the Falcons (5-7) have overachieved all season as they only trail the Buccaneers by half a game in the NFC South and are 7-5 ATS. The Steelers are No. 27 in yards per game while the Falcons are No. 28. But the Falcons have been far more efficient averaging 22.7 points per game compared to just 17.6 for the Steelers with RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson a threat to break off a huge run at any time (5.2 yards per carry) and with Marcus Mariota spreading the ball around to his receivers (or running himself).
Pick: Falcons +1
Adam Burke: Kenny Pickett is going through some growing pains in his first season as an NFL quarterback, but the task is a lot easier when the running game is putting up numbers. The Steelers have rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the last three games, including 172 yards against the Colts on Monday night. Pittsburgh is up to sixth in Rush EPA and should be able to keep that momentum going against a porous Falcons defense.
Najee Harris is questionable, but he avoided a major injury last week. Even if he can’t go, Benny Snell had 62 yards on 12 carries in relief last week, and Jaylen Warren has rushed for five yards per carry on his 38 attempts. Pickett has also contributed a bit with 35 rushes for 195 yards. There are options for the Steelers, and Pickett should also find more success through the air against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA against and 29th in Dropback Success Rate.
Pittsburgh’s advanced rush defense metrics look decent, but this is a team that has allowed at least 110 yards on the ground in seven of 11 games. They also haven’t faced many potent rushing attacks, but the Falcons have been very solid and rank fifth in Rush EPA. The Browns rank third in Rush EPA and ran for 171 yards against Pittsburgh back in Week 3.
Quietly, the Falcons' pass attack has graded around league average for the season. With the game indoors away from the bad weather across most of the country, there should be points in the forecast at the Georgia Dome. Not surprisingly, Atlanta has managed 0.38 more yards per play at home and has only allowed seven sacks in six games.
Pick: OVER 42
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 44.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETDave Tuley: The Eagles continue to roll along with the NFL’s best record at 10-1, but after starting 3-1 ATS, they’ve been middle of the road at 3-3 ATS their last six games–and that includes a cover by half a point after closing as 6.5-point home favorites in a 40-33 win versus the Packers on Sunday night.
They’ve failed to cover in wins over the Lions, Cardinals, Texans, and Colts in addition to their upset loss to the Commanders in Week 10, so I have no problem fading them against the Titans, who continue to get disrespected in the betting market despite overcoming an 0-2 start to stand at 7-4 SU and an even more impressive 8-3 ATS. And that includes losing 20-16 to the Bengals this past Sunday.
Derrick Henry continues to set the tone as he’s second in the NFL with 1,048 rushing yards to make things easier for Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passes. I also trust Tennessee Head Coach Mike Vrabel to have a scheme to contain Philly QB Jalen Hurts and keep the Titans in a one-score game if not pull the outright upset.
Pick: Titans +5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 51.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETAdam Burke: This one was a winner for me against the Bills last week in our BetsGiving contest, and I’ll go right back to the well again. Jared Goff will be playing indoors at Ford Field, and his cold-weather splits are well-documented. At home this season, the Lions have 15 passing touchdowns. On the road, they have two. Detroit has played one more game at home than on the road, but this is the second-ranked red-zone offense by touchdown percentage, and Goff has had at least two passing touchdowns in five of the six home games. In the game, he didn’t. He threw for 321 yards, so the chances were there.
Jacksonville has a below-average pass defense by EPA and Success Rate while having a really strong run defense, so the Lions should look to the pass as their best means of scoring and creating some explosive plays.
Pick: Jared Goff OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (+100)
Cleveland Browns (-7, 47) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: Nobody knows exactly how Deshaun Watson will look in his NFL return, but we have a pretty good idea of how the Texans will look. The Browns may not hit 7.5 to be more than a touchdown favorite on the road for the first time since 1995, but this is still pretty rare air for a Cleveland team that could barely win games not that long ago. Even if Watson looks merely pedestrian here, they are far and away the better team.
This is actually a top-10 offense by EPA/play and a top-five offense in Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate. The Texans are the worst offense in the NFL by EPA/play and are not a passing threat at all, allowing a suspect Cleveland defense to flood the box to stop Dameon Pierce and the running game.
Houston pairs that atrocious offense with a below-average defense against both the pass and the run. A couple of turnovers would help Cleveland’s cause here, as the Browns have only forced eight takeaways this season, but they should still be able to wear Houston down enough to come away with a win and cover, despite the big spread.
Pick: Browns -7
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 41) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: There are two reasons why I like Kenneth Walker III OVER his rushing yards. The first is that Aaron Donald is out for the Rams, and he is a mountain of a man that takes up a ton of space on that defensive line. His absence should help open up the middle of the field for the Seahawks to run the ball. The second is because of the likely game state that we’ll see here.
The Seahawks are a touchdown favorite. It remains to be seen if they’ll face John Wolford or Bryce Perkins, but they’re going to get an inefficient quarterback on the other side regardless. This is the type of game where Seattle can build up a lead and run the football to keep that clock moving. Also, there must be some serious questions about the Rams and their effort level moving forward, especially from a physicality standpoint in the trenches. Taking Donald out of the mix heightens my concerns on that front, so I’m looking for Walker to have a nice game.
Pick: Kenneth Walker III OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 50.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETAdam Burke: Corey Linsley didn’t practice on Wednesday, which means the Raiders become a much more attractive bet. Linsley grades as one of the two best centers in the NFL and might be the most important offensive lineman in the league. The Chargers weren’t going to be able to run the ball against the Raiders regardless, as Las Vegas ranks fourth in Rush EPA on defense, but now the Chargers are likely to have pass protection problems as well.
Los Angeles has been ravaged by injuries all season. Linsley is joined by RT Trey Pipkins among the offensive line injuries, but the Chargers are also missing WR Mike Williams, S Derwin James and CB Bryce Callahan, among others. Between the injuries and a lack of execution, the Chargers have been outgained by 0.8 yards per play this season and have been outscored by 30 points. Despite all that, they are 6-5.
Compare that to the Raiders, who have averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowed 5.9 yards per play on defense. They have been outscored by 11 points. They are 4-7, despite being sixth in points scored per drive. The Raiders take better care of the football than any other team with just nine turnovers. Of course, they’ve only forced eight, which is why their mediocre defense has given up a lot of points.
But a strong case can be made that the Raiders are the superior team statistically. Add in the likely absence of Linsley, and the wrong team is favored here in my estimation.
Pick: Raiders +1.5
Adam Burke: There’s a prop I like in this game as well. Many will just assume that Justin Herbert has a big day against the Raiders, but that may not be the case. Offensive line injuries are a huge deal this week for the Chargers, as they are likely to be without Linsley and Pipkins. As mentioned, Linsley is a top-two center and Pipkins has started 10 games this season. Herbert is also thin at wide receiver right now with Mike Williams out of the lineup.
Keenan Allen is back, but Herbert has still been under six yards per pass attempt in five of the last six games. He had 35 completions on 47 attempts last week against the Cardinals and still wound up going UNDER this total. He’s gone under this total in each of the last four games and six of his last seven. This is a gamble with the Raiders’ pass defense, but Herbert is likely to be under duress most of the game, and he has not been putting up prolific numbers all season long.
Pick: Justin Herbert UNDER 289.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-11, 43.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETDave Tuley: This line has gotten way out of control (opening Cowboys -9.5 on Sunday afternoon prior to the Colts’ 24-17 Monday Night Football loss to the Steelers), but we’ll gladly take the Colts as a double-digit underdog. NFL double-digit dogs are 11-6 ATS (64.7%) so far this season—and that’s with the Texans +14 and Rams +15.5 both coming up short this past Sunday. The Colts haven’t been a double-digit dog until now, but the Cowboys just failed after closing as a 10-point favorite in their 28-20 win vs. the Giants on Thanksgiving.
The Colts are playing much better since Jeff Saturday replaced Frank Reich, beating the Raiders and covering as 6.5-point dogs in a 17-16 loss to the Eagles before the MNF loss. If the Giants could stay within single digits of the Cowboys, so can the Colts.
Pick: Colts +11
