NFL Week 12

[sds23]

NFL Week 12

3* NE +1 105 (BJ)
2* ATL -1 100 (Dog)
2* SF +10.5 120 (Dog)
2* OAK +10 120 (Dog)
2* IND +3 125 (BJ)
1* GB +3 130 (BJ)

Perhaps one total and one prop to come.



Season Record: 69~51......+32.25 units






GB Note: I really do honestly like GB in the MNF game, but there is something fishy about this line. It opened at -2.5 and has not budged despite what appears to be a lot of public betting. (Perhaps someone with access to reliable public info can confirm or deny that last sentence.) Anyway, now BoDog and BetJam are hanging a +3 at -130 juice. That's usually a really bad sign, with or without my suspicions about the public betting on this contest. I was going to make this a 2*, maybe even a 3* play based upon my capping until I looked at the numbers and prices being offered. Stay tuned I guess. And thank you to anyone with additional (reliable) GB public betting info.




Leans:

TEN, DET, BAL, NYG

 

[sds23]

Week By Week Season Record Tally

Week 1 Record: 6~3........+4.60 units

Week 2 Record: 6~1........+9.90 units

Week 3 Record: 3~5........-5.90 units

Week 4 Record: 8~8........+0.60 units

Week 5 Record: 10~5.......+4.35 units

Week 6 Record: 6~8........-3.75 units

Week 7 Record: 5~9........-3.90 units

Week 8 Record: 6~3........+4.60 units

Week 9 Record: 4~0........+9.10 units

Week 10 Record: 8~1......+13.80 units

Week 11 Record: 7~8.......-1.15 units


-------------------------------------

Season Record: 69~51......+32.25 units<!-- / message -->

 

[takin]

my place doesnt even show the GB game yet

 

[thecruncher]

Tighter lines this week, and it looks like our magnetic fields are forcing us to lean in opposite directions again this week, for heck's sake. BOL...

 

[Primož]

Any thoughts on WAS:think2:

Good luck buddy:toast:

 

[ajreeb]

NFL Week 12

3* NE +1 105 (BJ)
2* ATL -1 100 (Dog)
2* SF +10.5 120 (Dog)
2* OAK +10 120 (Dog)
2* IND +3 125 (BJ)
1* GB +3 130 (BJ)

Perhaps one total and one prop to come.



Season Record: 69~51......+32.25 units






GB Note: I really do honestly like GB in the MNF game, but there is something fishy about this line. It opened at -2.5 and has not budged despite what appears to be a lot of public betting. (Perhaps someone with access to reliable public info can confirm or deny that last sentence.) Anyway, now BoDog and BetJam are hanging a +3 at -130 juice. That's usually a really bad sign, with or without my suspicions about the public betting on this contest. I was going to make this a 2*, maybe even a 3* play based upon my capping until I looked at the numbers and prices being offered. Stay tuned I guess. And thank you to anyone with additional (reliable) GB public betting info.




Leans:

TEN, DET, BAL, NYG

Another good looking card! I really like SF+10.5, I think Dallas is getting a little too much love after edging out Washington last week with Romo coming back.
As far as public bets go, I'd keep an eye out for ACE's thread with the numbers from sportsinsights.com, they seem to be the most reliable.
Good luck, bud!

 

[sds23]

my place doesnt even show the GB game yet

That could be a good thing until we figure out if it's worthy of a significant play or not. BOL this weekend Takin.

 

[sds23]

Tighter lines this week, and it looks like our magnetic fields are forcing us to lean in opposite directions again this week, for heck's sake. BOL...

Not good Crunch, not good! Last week was the same and I pretty much split across the board as a result. Perhaps we need to start sending each other smoke signals earlier in the week to ward off such descrepencies. Either way, BOL as awlays to you sir!

 

[sds23]

Any thoughts on WAS:think2:

Good luck buddy:toast:

Thanks Primoz.

I really didn't see a big advantage or a lot of value one way or the other on that game. I know that it seems like SEA is a pretty weak team and that WA is pretty strong, but a close examination of the stats makes this game look like it could be pretty close. What stands out to me is not the realtive strength versus wekaness of each team, but the relative closeness in which WA pays all of its games. For the season, the stats suggest that all of WA's games will be 20~17 type affairs (they average about 18 ppg both on offense and defense) and the home / away numbers tell the exact same story (20 ppg on offense and 19 ppg on defense). But the most alarming trend is their L3 game stats (WA's offensive ppg drops to 14 ppg and their defensive ppg stays at the season average of 18 ppg).

Trust your gut instincts, but I personally don't see any value here. BOL this weekend Primoz. I like your card.

 

[sds23]

Another good looking card! I really like SF+10.5, I think Dallas is getting a little too much love after edging out Washington last week with Romo coming back.
As far as public bets go, I'd keep an eye out for ACE's thread with the numbers from sportsinsights.com, they seem to be the most reliable.
Good luck, bud!

Thanks AJ.

My thoughts exactly on the DAL game. Because Romo is back everyone assumes that this offense will begin producing big numbers. And I guess it could, but until it actually does I will be happy to lay some $$ on the value they are leaving on the table for us. WA has a nice defense, but 14 points for DAL in that game? Let's face it, there appeared to be something out of sinc with that offense even before Romo's injury and it became too easy for people to justify DAL's recent low offensive ppg average on his abscence. But until I see otherwise.....

I am pretty sure we will trade more comments between now and gametime, but in case we don't......BOL this weekend my friend!!

 

[sds23]

Any thoughts on WAS:think2:

Good luck buddy:toast:

Some more info regarding Portis:



Portis limited in practice, listed as questionable

Associated Press

ASHBURN, Va. -- Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis was limited in practice Friday with his sprained knee and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks.
<TABLE width=230 align=right><TBODY><TR><TD> The polls are open! Fans can vote now for their favorite players for the 2009 NFL Pro Bowl, to be played Feb. 8 at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii. Vote here!

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Coach Jim Zorn said Portis will be a game-time decision, although Portis has given every indication that he will play. He ran for 68 yards on 15 carries in last week's game against the Dallas Cowboys despite not practicing at all.
"Clinton is game-time because he's really not full speed," Zorn said.
Receiver Antwaan Randle El is also questionable with a sprained ankle.
"He was a little ginger," Zorn said, "but I think by game time he'll be ready to go."
Linebacker Marcus Washington (sprained ankle) has already been ruled out for Sunday. Defensive tackle Anthony Montgomery (Achilles) is also questionable.
The Redskins flew to Seattle after practice to give them a full day to recover from the long flight before Sunday's game.

Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press

 

[Primož]

Some more info regarding Portis:



Portis limited in practice, listed as questionable

Associated Press

ASHBURN, Va. -- Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis was limited in practice Friday with his sprained knee and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks.
<table align="right" width="230"><tbody><tr><td> The polls are open! Fans can vote now for their favorite players for the 2009 NFL Pro Bowl, to be played Feb. 8 at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii. Vote here!

</td></tr></tbody></table>Coach Jim Zorn said Portis will be a game-time decision, although Portis has given every indication that he will play. He ran for 68 yards on 15 carries in last week's game against the Dallas Cowboys despite not practicing at all.
"Clinton is game-time because he's really not full speed," Zorn said.
Receiver Antwaan Randle El is also questionable with a sprained ankle.
"He was a little ginger," Zorn said, "but I think by game time he'll be ready to go."
Linebacker Marcus Washington (sprained ankle) has already been ruled out for Sunday. Defensive tackle Anthony Montgomery (Achilles) is also questionable.
The Redskins flew to Seattle after practice to give them a full day to recover from the long flight before Sunday's game.

Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press

Thanks buddy:toast:

 

[ATLSLIM]

Good picks this week!! Except for 1 or 2!! Thanks for having my back in the find my dime from Mac Fiasco!! Like I said in my thread, I'll split it with you, but I got to talk to ,ATLSLIM first. Good luck, sir!! Crush em!!!!!
ATLSLIM

 

[uscmd]

bol Sds

 

[sds23]

Thanks buddy:toast:

Anytime my friend.

 

[sds23]

Good picks this week!! Except for 1 or 2!! Thanks for having my back in the find my dime from Mac Fiasco!! Like I said in my thread, I'll split it with you, but I got to talk to ,ATLSLIM first. Good luck, sir!! Crush em!!!!!
ATLSLIM

Thank you sir and BOL right back at ya. CRUSH 'EM!!

 

[sds23]

bol Sds

Thanks Doc. And BOL with all of your Week 12 action!

 

[sds23]

Adding:

2* TEN -5.5 105 (Dog)

 

[sds23]

NFL Week 12

3* NE +1 105 (BJ)
2* ATL -1 100 (Dog)
2* SF +10.5 120 (Dog)
2* OAK +10 120 (Dog)
2* TEN -5.5 105 (Dog)
2* IND +3 125 (BJ)
1* GB +3 130 (BJ)



Season Record: 69~51......+32.25 units



Leans: DET, NYG, BAL

 

[sds23]

Interesting......



Through the NFL's first 11 weeks, here are the league's top five in best point margin in any half:


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width=450 border=1 _extended="true"><TBODY><TR class=blog_thead _extended="true"><TD> Team</TD><TD align=middle>Half</TD><TD align=middle>PF</TD><TD align=middle>PA</TD><TD align=middle>Margin</TD></TR><TR class=blog_odd _extended="true"><TD> JETS</TD><TD align=middle>1st</TD><TD align=middle>175</TD><TD align=middle>95</TD><TD align=middle>plus-80</TD></TR><TR class=blog_even _extended="true"><TD> Tennessee</TD><TD align=middle>2nd</TD><TD align=middle>130</TD><TD align=middle>54</TD><TD align=middle>plus-76</TD></TR><TR class=blog_odd _extended="true"><TD> Giants</TD><TD align=middle>1st</TD><TD align=middle>167</TD><TD align=middle>93</TD><TD align=middle>plus-74</TD></TR><TR class=blog_even _extended="true"><TD> Atlanta</TD><TD align=middle>1st</TD><TD align=middle>144</TD><TD align=middle>85</TD><TD align=middle>plus-59</TD></TR><TR class=blog_odd _extended="true"><TD> San Diego</TD><TD align=middle>2nd</TD><TD align=middle>142</TD><TD align=middle>86</TD><TD align=middle>plus-57</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>