NFL Week 1

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I can't believe the NFL season is about to kick off. I've been so busy that September just kind of snuck up on me. I will post some plays a little later in the week, but do have one that sticks out already without even running my numbers:

4* GB OV 46 -110
 

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I like it.. I will have some kind of play either on the Pack or the Over depending on where the lines end up.. best of luck this season
 

the shit... simply put
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what up sds ... nice to see your posting again this yr. Don't forget the shoe rule . lol

joc
 

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Hello again, my friend. Good to see you coming out the chute with a 4*, great way to get things started. Looking forward to the rest of your plays this week, and BOL this season! :103631605
 

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Best of luck this year and im definitely on over as well. gbay should score at least 30 in this game.
 

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Looking forward to enjoying a high school football game tonight after a tedious work week. Then I plan on finally diving into some numbers tonight and tomorrow morning with hopes of posting some games by Saturday night. I am very excited about the commencement of week one in the NFL!

midman ~ Thank you sir. It's great to see you again and looking forward to seeing your picks. Knock 'em dead this year!

WVUCarter & Prestige ~ Thank you very much. BOL with all of your week one action.

JOC ~ Hey buddy! I would never forget about the Shoe Rule! And if I ever did forget, I know that I can count on you generously reminding all of us. BOL this season brother!

MET ~ I know we keep in touch, but it's always great to come back and see friendly faces like yours, mid, JOC, Huego, AJ and all the others. You must be pretty fired up about Sanchez, huh? Forget Favre! You've got yourself a young stud to build around in the years to come. BOL with all your action MET!

AJ ~ Thank you my friend. It's always hard to squeeze off those first shots of the year for some reason.....but this play immediately stood out to me without even running any numbers. I hope I can indeed get things started off with a bang. Looking forward to exchanging thoughts and ideas as always this season. Great to see you and BOL!

Maniax ~ Thank you and BOL to you also. And I agree....this Packer offense is potent! Now, there's a very good chance that there will be some initial jitters (first week of the season, under the lights, nationally televised, versus a hated rival, etc.) but there will definitely be some points in this contest. And the Bears should be able to move the ball as well. I am worried about GB's run defense getting exposed.

See you all later!
 

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BOL this season my man!

Thanks Sean. You are definitely part of that group (mentioned above) of friendly faces that I look forward to seeing again every year. BOL to you also my friend!
 

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BOL sds, you are one of the people I have watched for the past few seasons. I'm liking the GB/Chi O 46, should be a high offense game!
 

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Packers vs Bears - gonna go UNDER! ??

errr , ..... doesn't Chicago and Green Bay pretty decent defenses ? ... Sure Aaron Rodgers is gonna be in BETTER Sync than Jay Cutler (Newby) and his receivers, ... So, ... shouldn't this be UNDER LIKE THUNDER ? Look at Thursday's game, fellows were thinking OVER - but it went WAY UNDER , ... I think that UNDER in the GBay vs CHICAGO game is THE BET!
 

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Week 1 Trend

6. In games with extremely high totals, or those at 45.5 or more, the UNDER is an astonishing 18-4 (82%) since ’01.
 

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errr , ..... doesn't Chicago and Green Bay pretty decent defenses ? ... Sure Aaron Rodgers is gonna be in BETTER Sync than Jay Cutler (Newby) and his receivers, ... So, ... shouldn't this be UNDER LIKE THUNDER ? Look at Thursday's game, fellows were thinking OVER - but it went WAY UNDER , ... I think that UNDER in the GBay vs CHICAGO game is THE BET!

You are certainly entitled to your opinion. And obviously anything can happen in a football game. However, I challenge your thinking on your first and most primary point.

I would definitely not call the GB and CHI defenses "pretty decent". The GB and CHI defenses were ranked #20 and #21 respectively in total yards allowed per game last season. GB allowed 334.3 ypg and CHI allowed 334.7 ypg. These two teams did not fare much better in terms of points allowed per game either. GB was ranked #22 (allowing 23.8 ppg) and CHI was ranked #17 (allowing 21.9 ppg).

Now, lets examine each team's biggest weakness and contrast it with their opponent's strength: GB is obviously an aerial machine and CHI was ranked #30 versus the pass last season (30th!) allowing 241.2 passing yards per game. And while Cutler brings obvious passing power, CHI will still always want to establish a strong ground attack and should have no problem doing so versus a GB defense that was ranked #26 versus the run last season (26th!) allowing 131.6 rushing yards per game.

Furthermore, GB switching to 3~4 will take a little bit of time to work. There's a lot of talent on that defense, but it may take a number of games to gel. Don't be fooled by their high propensity to create turnovers.....there are some serious holes to fill in terms of their front 3. Right now their front 3 are a liability. The talented LBs and DBs behind them can only do so much in terms of support. I expect the GB defense to get exposed once again against the run this season. They will continue to create turnovers, but may struggle to be anything better than average in terms of rushing yards and points allowed per game this season.
 

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6. In games with extremely high totals, or those at 45.5 or more, the UNDER is an astonishing 18-4 (82%) since ’01.

That's a pretty impressive stat. It doesn't change my mind in the slightest, but that is a very respectable stat.
 

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BOL sds, you are one of the people I have watched for the past few seasons. I'm liking the GB/Chi O 46, should be a high offense game!

Thank you B. That's great to hear and I'm glad you stopped by. I hope we're right about this one. BOL with your action this week!
 

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Adding:

3* DAL -5 105
2* MIN -4 105
2* DEN OV 42.5 110

Leans:

SF, ATL, CAR & NO Under


Might post one or two more tomorrow before gametime
 

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Adding:

3* DAL -5 105
2* MIN -4 105
2* DEN OV 42.5 110

With you on Big D as well. A little nervous after seeing some reverse line movement the past 24 hours, but I'm sure you remember how well that strategy worked out for me last year...
Anyway, added GB-4 and the over to the card.
Good luck!
 

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