NFL week 1 trends 2023

[itchyback]

follow or fade up to you

Since 2000, underdogs are 175-155-14 (53%) against the spread (ATS) and 117-225 (34%) straight up (SU) in Week 1 games. If you go back even further to 1966 (the beginning of the Super Bowl era), the cover rate stays approximately the same at 402-370-25 ATS (52.1%).

Aaron Rodgers ATS vs. NFC North​

Aaron Rodgers finished his Packers career with a 53-32 ATS record vs. the NFC North.

Aaron Rodgers Home Record​

Aaron Rodgers has posted an elite record at home, with an overall record of 91-23-1 (straight up) prior to the 2023 season.

Aaron Rodgers Road Record​

Rodgers has not been a particularly good road quarterback, as he is only 59-56 (straight up) throughout his career.

Aaron Rodgers vs. AFC East​

Throughout his career, Rodgers is 10-6 outright against the AFC East. That includes 3-1 records against the Jets and Dolphins. He has split four games with both the Bills and Patriots.
Rodgers is 8-8 ATS against the four AFC East teams. The only individual in-division team he has a winning ATS record against is Buffalo, which languished in mediocrity for most of Rodgers’ tenure with the Packers.
Last year, the NFC North happened to draw the AFC East as a divisional matchup, which means Rodgers got an early look at his new divisional rivals. In 2022, his Packers beat the Patriots and Dolphins but lost to the Bills and Jets.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Buffalo Bills​

Aaron Rodgers is 2-2 straight up and 3-1 ATS versus the Buffalo Bills.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Miami Dolphins​

Aaron Rodgers is 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS versus the Miami Dolphins.

Aaron Rodgers vs. New England Patriots​

Aaron Rodgers is 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS versus the New England Patriots.

 

[itchyback]

Home Dogs​

Overall, home underdogs are 56-55 against the spread in Week 1 over the past 20 years. Where we find the value is with divisional home dogs in Week 1.

Divisional home dogs are 25-13 ATS in the past 20 years, including 7-0 ATS since 2018, 15-2 ATS since 2012 and 21-5 ATS since 2009.

 

[five-head]

I don't see much so far. Thanks for posting

 

[itchyback]

Then there are four teams facing a total of four foes who be will playing off a bye, or an added advantage of 11 days of rest this season. The unfortunate four include:

Kansas City 11/20 vs. Eagles, 12/10 vs. Bills, 12/18 @new England and 12/25 vs. Raiders (11 days).

LA Rams 10/15 @browns, 10/29 vs. Bengals, 11/12 @ Jaguars and 12/17 vs. Commandeers.

San Francisco: 10/22 vs. Steelers, 10/29 @cowboys, 12/10 #Ravens and 12/17 @ Carolina. In addition, the Inners will be traveling the second-most air miles this season, nearly 30,000.

Oakland is tasked with three such games – 10/9 vs. Packers, 11/19 @ Miami and 12/10 vs. Vikings, with Minnesota sandwiched in between the Chiefs, the Chargers and the Chiefs, again.

 

[itchyback]

Week 1 underdogs of +6.5 or more points are 47-28 (63%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005,
and Week 1 road 'dogs that didn’t make the previous postseason are 75-47-4 (64%) since 2005.

As profitable as the aforementioned trends have been, they pale in comparison to 'dogs of +3.5 or more points against the Chiefs, which have posted a 26-10 (72%) ATS mark dating back to November 2020.

 

[itchyback]

Entering his sixth season as an NFL head coach, Reich is still winless in Week 1, both ATS and SU.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Home Dogs​

Overall, home underdogs are 56-55 against the spread in Week 1 over the past 20 years. Where we find the value is with divisional home dogs in Week 1.

Divisional home dogs are 25-13 ATS in the past 20 years, including 7-0 ATS since 2018, 15-2 ATS since 2012 and 21-5 ATS since 2009.

Currently there are 4 division home dogs in week one. That being said, the 7-0 streak s/'18 ends this year.

 

[skoda]

Whose the winner.. Steelers/Browns/Colts or Patriots… I say Patriots! We might see another but let’s see who gets the injury bug….

 

[itchyback]

Currently there are 4 division home dogs in week one. That being said, the 7-0 streak s/'18 ends this year.

But does it end 3/4 winners
2/2
1/3
Or 0/4

?

 

[itchyback]

I guess Giants don't cover

 

[BigLouReturns]

One of those games could go from a home dog to a home fav.

 

[itchyback]

no point in holding a ticket in a dead number range
the Browns team's floor is lower with Jacoby Brissett gone and Joshua Dobbs backing up Watson.
wide range of outcomes with Watson , does he return to good or bad
if line significantly moves may be worth betting

 

[itchyback]

Are these the tightest division races in years? Currently, no division betting favorite is -200 or higher — the first time that is the case since 2004 and the second time since 2000.

Current Favorites

+120

+155

-155

-190

-120

+135

+115

+115

Between the Bengals, Ravens, Browns and Steelers, the AFC North win totals add up to 40, which would make it the best "on-paper" division entering a season from a win-total perspective since division realignment in 2002


.

Lions​

Detroit's Man. Who's the most profitable quarterback against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 over the last 20 years?
The answer: Jared Goff, who is 6-0 ATS (4-0 SU — straight-up — and ATS with the Rams and 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS with the Lions). Goff has been the most-profitable QB ATS over the last five years (48-32-2 ATS, +$1,341).

It All Matters. With the Lions opening up the season outdoors at Arrowhead Stadium, this is how Goff has performed ATS indoors and outdoors.

• Indoor: 26-13 ATS (16-5 the last two seasons with Detroit).
• Outdoor: 31-33-2 ATS.
• Lions schedule from Weeks 1-7: three dome, four outdoors. Then, from Week 8 onward: nine dome, one outdoors.

A New Detroit. The Lions' win total is 9.5. They're the only NFL team without a double-digit win total in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Their win total of 9.5 is the team's highest in the Wild Card era.

• 20-1 to win the Super Bowl this year is the shortest SB odds for Detroit since 1996 (15-1).
• +140 to win the NFC North is the shortest division odds for Detroit over the last 20 years.
• The Lions are favored to win NFC North for first time since the current iteration of the division in 2002. The last time Detroit had the best odds for the division it played in was 1992.

Against Mahomes. Teams getting +3.5 points or more against Patrick Mahomes are 37-30-1 ATS, including 10-4 ATS last season and 28-15 ATS over the last three seasons

lean Sheet. If you bet on Goff to throw an interception in every game last season, you would be down 7.3 units (most of any QB). Second worst was Kenny Pickett at -6.3 units. (Interception data via Gilles Gallant.)

Early Overs. Week 1 Lions games have gone over the total 12 straight years (2011-22). They're 15-1 to the over since 2007.

Perfection. Lions went 6-0 ATS vs. the NFC North last season.

The Swift is Gone. Lions with D’Andre Swift last season: 9-5 SU, 12-2 ATS (0-3 ATS without him). He's now on the Eagles.

Chiefs​

Never Dogs. The Chiefs are projected to be favored in every game this season. Their smallest projected spreads are in Week 4 at the Jets (-2) and Week 18 at the Chargers (-2).

"Do You Remember?" Mahomes is 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS in September – 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in openers (over is 5-0 in Mahomes Week 1 openers, going over by 10.9 PPG).

Record Breaker. Mahomes is 64-16 SU in the regular season (80 starts). Through 80 starts …

• Most QB Wins: Mahomes 64; Brady, Lamonica, Stabler, Staubach 60
• TD Passes: Mahomes 192, Marino 181, Rodgers 177

By The Numbers. Mahomes starts by point spread …

• Favorite: 84 (41-42-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
• -10 or higher: 23 (9-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or fewer/or dog: 71 (40-30-1 ATS)
• -3.5 or higher: 68 (30-37-1 ATS) | -3 or fewer/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS)

A Good Spot. Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory over the Eagles …

• Week 1 Thursday night opener: Home teams are 12-7-3 ATS since 2000.
• Beginning in 2004, the reigning Super Bowl champions have kicked off the NFL regular season by hosting 18 weekday primetime games. In those games, they're 10-6-2 ATS.
• The Super Bowl champs are 14-8-1 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000

Hard to Beat K.C. The Chiefs have won eight straight games dating back to last season, including seven straight home games.

• As Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid is 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU in season openers (won eight straight SU). The last loss? Back in 2014 at home vs. Titans and QB Jake Locker.
• Reid is 44-22 SU in September since 2003, including 16-3 SU since 2017-18. His 44-22 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $1,022, which is the most of any coach in the Bet Labs database.

Win Total. Chiefs are 9-1 to their win total over in the last 10 years. Reid win total results with the Chiefs and Eagles: 9-1 over with K.C. and 9-4-1 over with Philly (18-5-1 overall to over).

K.C. Special. Chiefs have won the AFC West seven consecutive years – it's longest active division streak across the four major sports. The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots, with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.

 

[itchyback]

Panthers​

He's No. 1. Bryce Young will be the 18th first overall pick to start at QB in Week 1 of his draft year (since the merger). The previous 17 QBs went 3-13-1 SU and 5-12 ATS in that Week 1 game.

• Overall, No. 1 picks who start at QB are 4-21-1 SU and 7-19 ATS in their first career start.
• The last No. 1 pick to win his first start? David Carr in 2002. They're 0-13-1 SU and 1-13 ATS since 2003.

Hard To Overcome. Since 2011-12 — the years Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were taken No. 1 overall — 17 QBs have been taken in the top five of the draft.

• Not counting Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, the previous 14 QBs are 22 games under .500 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $4,496.
• Ten of the 14 QBs are .500 ATS or below in their career. The four QBs above .500 ATS are Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa.

Stature. Young measured at 5-foot-10, 204 pounds at the 2023 NFL Combine. Murray, who is recovering from a torn ACL, is the only QB under six feet tall drafted in the first round in the common draft era.

Below 6-feet Tall, Starting QB Rookie Year

• 2020 PJ Walker 1-0 SU
• 2019 Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
• 2012 Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
• 1986 Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
• 1976 Pat Haden 5-2 SU

Early Trouble. Frank Reich is 0-4-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 games as head coach (all with the Colts).

Road Trip! Between Weeks 12-14, the Panthers go on a three-game road trip. Teams on the third or more game of a road trip are 50-54-2 ATS in the last 20 years. In September-November, they're 23-20 ATS, and in December-January, they're 27-34-2 ATS.

Can It Continue? The Panthers went 8-3 ATS after trading Christian McCaffrey last season (third-best ATS record in NFL in that span).

Rollercoaster. The Panthers went over their win total last year (6.5 or seven). They haven’t eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.

ince 2002, there have been 31 instances of teams drafting a quarterback in the top 10 that then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie. Those teams combined to go 11-18-2 (37.9%) toward their win-total over. Over the last 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 4-11-2 (26.7%).

Highest Team Over/Under for a QB Drafted First Overall in WC Era (since 1990)

• 1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft)
• 2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5
• 2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5

Falcons​

Starting Slow. The Falcons haven’t won a Week 1 game since 2017 (five straight SU losses), and they've lost four straight Week 1 games at home SU.

• Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Week 1 games, but they covered — and lost SU — last year.

Schedule & Win Total. Atlanta went over its win total in 2022, breaking a four-year under streak. The Falcons are 7-3 to under in the last 10 years.

• The Falcons have zero games this season with positive rest differential compared to their opponent. They also play on the road before their game in London (Week 4).
• Seven of the Falcons' last 11 games are on the road. Atlanta went 1-7 SU on the road last season, which was its worst year since 2013.

Two Face. Arthur Smith is 5-11 ATS at home as a head coach compared to 10-7-1 ATS on the road or neutral field.

• Smith is the Falcons' worst head coach ATS at home over the last 20 years.
• Since being hired in 2021, Smith is the least profitable coach at home ATS in the NFL.

Bijan Value? In 53 seasons since the merger, six rookies have led the NFL in rushing: Earl Campbell (1978), George Rogers (1981), Eric Dickerson (1983), Edgerrin James (1999), Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Kareem Hunt (2017). Bijan Robinson is about +1100 to lead the league in rushing this season.

The Ridder Difference. In a small sample size, Desmond Ridder has been a better QB at home.

• Home: 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) | 25 points per game | TD-INT (2-0) | 7.0 yards per attempt
• Road: 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) | 13.5 points per game | TD-INT (0-0) | 5.3 yards per attempt

Texans​

Double-Digit. We haven't had a double-digit favorite in Week 1 since Eagles vs. Commanders in 2019. The closest right now is the Ravens vs. Texans. The four-year run without a double-digit favorite in Week 1 is the longest such streak since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.

If it does get there, double-digit favorites in Week 1 are 25-5 SU in the Wild Card era, with the biggest upset going to the Texans against the Dolphins as 14-point underdogs in 2003.

Lack of Size. If this closes as the only game with a spread of seven or more points, that would be the fewest games in Week 1 with a spread of seven or more since 2010, when we had no such games.

All Rookies. Since 2002, rookie head coaches are 56-39-2 (58%) ATS in their first road game (stat via Chris Raybon).


Schedule Note. The Texans don’t play in primetime this season, with 16-of-17 games starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Not Again. Houston has won four games or fewer in three straight seasons (2020-22). The last team to do it four straight seasons was the Bears from 1972-75.

Uphill Climb. Nineteen Ohio State QBs have been taken in the NFL or Supplemental Draft. One has been selected to the Pro Bowl thus far: Tom Tupa in 1999 for the Jets, who didn't draft him.

• • Justin Fields will be the only drafted OSU QB to be the primary starter for two or more seasons.
  • All drafted OSU QBs are a combined 42-88 SU, with Craig Krenzel (3-2) being the only one over .500 SU.
  • OSU first-round QBs (Fields, Dwayne Haskins and Art Schlichter) are 8-36 SU.

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Ravens​

High & Early. The Ravens are currently the biggest favorite in Week 1. It's Baltimore's third opener as a double-digit favorite — 2009 as a 13-point favorite vs. Chiefs and 2001 as a 10.5-point favorite vs. Bears (both wins and covers).

King of Prep. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 11-4 ATS in Week 1, making him the most profitable Week 1 coach in the Bet Labs database.

John Harbaugh With Extra Time To Prepare

• 10+ days: 24-8 SU, 18-12-2 ATS
• Week 1: 11-4 SU/ATS

New Man in Town. Todd Monken is Baltimore's new offensive coordinator. This is his fifth OC-type stint in NFL, and his teams' ATS results haven’t been great.

• 2019 CLE: 5-10-1 ATS
• 2018 TB: 5-9-2 ATS
• 2017 TB: 6-9-1 ATS
• 2016 TB: 9-7 ATS
• total: 25-35-4 ATS

Powerhouse. Ravens are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl. They're 20-1 or shorter in that market for the fourth straight season, which is their longest streak since they moved to Baltimore in 1996.

First Half Charm? Lamar Jackson used to be the king of first-half (1H) ATS. Not so much recently.

• 2021-23: 10-13-1 1H ATS
• 2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS

Jackson still tends to cover 1H early in the season. He's 11-4-1 1H ATS in the first four games of the season, including 4-0 Week 1 and 7-1 in the first two weeks.

Dog World. Over the past two seasons, Jackson is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog, but 5-14 (26%) ATS as a favorite, including 1-11 (8%) when favored by more than three points.

 

[itchyback]

Bengals​

The Burrow Corner. Some Joe Burrow stats to get you ready for Week 1 and on:

• Burrow is 32-17 ATS (65.3%) in his career, making him the seventh-most profitable entering 2023 over the last 20 years: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith and Burrow.
• The QBs with the highest ATS win percentages over the last 20 years (min. 25 starts): Bridgewater, Shaun Hill and Burrow.
• Burrow is 19-8 ATS road/neutral, including 16-5 the last two seasons.
• Burrow is 19-6 SU as a favorite and he's won eight straight games as a favorite. He's 12-1 SU as a favorite over his last 13 games.
• Burrow is 8-8 SU vs. AFC North and 21-11-1 SU vs. all other divisions.
• Burrow is 1-4 SU vs. Browns compared to 28-15-1 SU vs. all other teams.
• Since Burrow was drafted, the Bengals are 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS without him. Using Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen, they've averaged just 16.3 points per game on offense.

Streak is Over. The Bengals' 11.5 win total is their first double-digit win total since 1989, which ends the second-longest drought without a double-digit win total in the NFL.

Keeping it Close. The Bengals have lost SU by more than three points once in their last 23 games, and they didn’t have Ja'Marr Chase in that game.

White Hot. The Bengals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 regular-season games. The Browns gave them one of those two ATS losses.

Browns​

New Era? The Browns won their opener last year and are now 1-16-1 SU in Week 1 since 2005, and 2-22-1 SU in openers since 1995. No team had lost even 10 straight openers prior.

Cleveland is 0-10-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 2005 and 1-15-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 1999. The Browns' only win was in 2004 vs. Kyler Boller and the Ravens.

QB1. Deshaun Watson is 29-31-2 ATS in his career and 12-17-2 ATS as a favorite. This will be his first game as a home dog with the Browns.

• 
  Watson is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in Week 1 and 2-5 SU and ATS over the first two weeks.
• Watson hasn't finished above .500 ATS since his rookie year in 2017.

Struggle Bus. Browns are 5-13 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 142 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin.

Bad Omen? The Browns have odds of +3500 to win the Super Bowl. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), high expectations have not led to results.

Browns SU Record With 40-1 or Shorter Super Bowl Odds Since 1990

• 2022: 7-10
• 2021: 8-9
• 2019: 6-10
• 2008: 4-12
• 2003: 5-11
• 2002: 9-7
• 1995: 5-11
• 1993: 7-9
• 1992: 7-9
• 1990: 3-13

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[itchyback]

Jaguars​

High Expectations. The Jaguars went over their win total (6.5) last year. Jacksonville's win total under is now 10-2 over the last 12 years. The Jags' win total of 9.5 is their highest win total since 10 in 2008, when they won five games.

• Jacksonville finished the season last year 6-1 SU and ATS in last seven games.
• The Jags are tied with the 49ers and Chiefs for the lowest odds to win any NFL Division this year at -165.

Road Woes. Trevor Lawrence is 4-14 SU and 7-11 ATS on the road. He ended last year on a four-game ATS road win streak. This will be Lawrence’s third career game as a road favorite. The other two came at Houston, where he's 1-1 SU and ATS.


For what it's worth, the Jaguars have won four straight road games ATS entering this season.

Get to Know Trevor.

• Lawrence is 15-21 ATS in his career. He's 10-9 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
• Lawrence is 14-22 against 1H spread for his career. Since he was drafted in 2021, that's the second worst of 85 QBs, ahead of just Tom Brady.
• Lawrence is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in Indianapolis, having lost by six and seven points.

Like a Fine Wine. Pederson is 53-52 ATS in his head-coaching career. He's 29-37 from September-November and 24-15 from January on.

Here We Go Again. The Jaguars are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. This is just the fifth time since 2000 that they're under 30-1 to win it all
Under the Sea. Lawrence is 22-14 to the under in the last two seasons, making him the most profitable QB to the under in the NFL.

Colts​

Tough Start. Since 2008, the Colts are 2-12-1 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in Week 1.

Over the last 20 years, the Colts are 5-13-2 ATS in their season opener, making them the least profitable team ATS in the NFL.

Division Foe. The Colts are 14-24-2 ATS vs. Jaguars over the last 20 years (a $100 bettor would be down $1,555), which makes them the least profitable opponent in that span. Indy is 2-13-1 ATS vs. Jaguars since 2015, but the Colts haven't gone 2-0 ATS vs. the Jags in a season since 2014.

New Man. Anthony Richardson threw 24 touchdown passes in his college career, which is the fewest by a first-round pick since Michael Vick in 2001. He has the lowest completion rate (54.7%) by a first-round QB since Jake Locker in 2011 (54.0).


Same Old Colts. For Indy, it's a new quarterback every single season.

Most Consecutive Years With Different Week 1 Starting QB

• 1987-93 Chargers, seven
• 1997-03 Ravens, seven
• 2013-19 Browns, seven
• 2017-23 Washington, seven
• 2017-23 Colts, seven

Back at the Bottom. Colts have the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).

• The third time with 100-1 odds or higher to win it all since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
• Their win total of 6.5 is the lowest since 2012.

 

[itchyback]

Bucs​

The Old Bucs. Tampa Bay has lost six straight road games ATS entering this season.

Bad Bowles. Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches as an underdog.

• Bowles is 12-36 SU and 18-27-3 ATS as an underdog (22-15 SU as a favorite).
• He was 0-4 SU as a dog last season and is 10-34 SU since 2016.
• Of 144 head coaches, Bowles’ 18-27-3 ATS mark as a dog is 140th (-$994 for a $100 bettor).

Bad Baker. Baker Mayfield is 29-41-1 (41.4%) ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,323. Over the last 20 years, he’s the seventh-least profitable QB ATS of 272 QBs. Since 2018, he’s the third-worst of 116 QBs behind Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz.

Most Consecutive Week 1 Starts by QB With Different Team

• • 2021-23 Baker Mayfield, 3
  • 2020-22 Carson Wentz, 3
  • 2009-11 Donovan McNabb, 3
  • 2007-09 Brett Favre, 3
  • 2003-05 Kurt Warner, 3
    

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    Vikings​

    Captain Kirk. Cousins is 69-70-2 ATS in his career. He was 30-28 ATS with Washington and is 39-42-2 ATS with Minnesota.
    
    • The Vikings won only two games by more than one score last year, including 11-1 SU in one-score games. They ended up with a -10 point differential.
    • Cousins is 10-16 ATS at home since 2020, which is 83rd of 85 QBs.
    • Cousins has had his issues on Monday Night Football. This year, Minnesota is slated to play on Monday night against the 49ers (Oct. 23) and the Bears (Nov. 27). In his career, Cousins is 2-10 SU and ATS on Monday Night Football.
      Over The Mark.
    The over is 22-12 in Cousins’ 34 starts since 2021 – making him the most profitable QB to the over in that span (of 85 QBs).
    
    Worst Point Differential Among 13+ Win Teams Since Merger
    
    • 2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total
    • 1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
    • 1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
    • 1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

 

[itchyback]

Titans​

Mike & the Mad Dog. Mike Vrabel is 48-34 (59%) SU and 42-38-2 (53%) ATS as Titans coach.

• As an underdog, Vrabel is 20-19 (51%) SU and 23-15-1 (61%) ATS, including 22-9-1 (71%) when the spread is +3 or higher.
• The Titans will be underdogs in each of their first four games, and they play the Browns in Week 3 when Cleveland is coming off a road Monday night game in Pittsburgh.
• Vrabel is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in Week 1, but he's 11-6 ATS in games with more than a full week of rest during the regular season.

All About Ryan. In his career, Ryan Tannehill is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU vs. the Saints.

• Tannehill is 72-72-4 ATS in his career: 31-27-2 ATS with the Titans and 41-45-2 with the Dolphins.
• Tannehill is 53-43-2 ATS from September-November and 19-29-2 from December on.
• He's 29-18 to the 1H spread over the past three seasons, which is the best in the NFL.
• Tannehill has started three Week 1 games for the Titans, and he's 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by 11.8 points per game. With the Dolphins, he was 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in Week 1.

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Saints​

Familiar Territory. The Saints open the season at home as four-point favorites. New QB Derek Carr has struggled mightily as a favorite in his career.

• Carr is 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite, all with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. That makes him the fourth-least-profitable QB as a favorite in the last 20 years. He’s ahead of just Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan.
• Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime for the fifth time in his career. He was 8-8 ATS in 2015, 5-8-2 ATS in 2017, 6-10 ATS in 2018 and 7-8 ATS in 2022.

Dennis the Menace. In his coaching career, Dennis Allen is 15-38 (28%) SU and 21-31-1 (40%) ATS. Allen-coached teams are 0-4 toward the over on their preseason win total.

Dennis Allen NFL Coaching Career

• Allen is 7-5 (58%) SU and 4-8 (33%) ATS as a favorite.
• As an underdog of more than a field goal, Allen is 5-23 SU.

Not So Fast. Since the NFL switched to the current divisional format in 2002, there have been 49 teams listed as the sole favorite to win their division at plus-money odds like the Saints this year. Only 15 of those teams, or 30.6%, went on to win the division (via Chris Raybon).

Easy Bounce Back? Saints went under their win total last year for the first time since 2015, and they now have a relatively easy schedule. They don’t face a single team with Super Bowl odds lower than 20-1.

No Voodoo. The Superdome isn’t scary anymore. The Saints are 6-9 SU at home over the last two seasons, and only three teams have won fewer than six home games in that span.

Saints QB Fantasy Ranking by Year With Taysom Hill

• 2017 Brees 262 (ninth)
• 2018 Brees 303 (eighth)
• 2019 Brees 224 (21st)
• 2020 Brees 209 (21st)
• 2021 Jameis 117 (32nd)
• 2022 Dalton 174 (22nd)

 

[itchyback]

49ers​

The Shanahan System. San Francisco is 20-11 ATS as a road dog under Kyle Shanahan (third best in NFL since he became head coach). As a road favorite, S.F. is just 10-11 ATS.

• San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in Week 1 under Shanahan (2-4 SU).
• The 49ers went 7-0 ATS vs. NFC West last season.

Efficient. The 49ers are 25-15 ATS over the last two seasons, making them the fourth-most profitable team in the NFL during the span (CIN, DET, DAL, SF).

• In games Christian McCaffrey started last season, the 49ers went 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS.

Next Step? At the moment, Brock Purdy is the third-most profitable San Francisco starting QB ATS over the last 20 years. The most profitable 49ers QBs over the last 20 years have been Jimmy Garoppolo (35-25-1), Shaun Hill (12-4), and then Purdy (6-2).

If We See Sam. Darnold is 22-32-1 ATS in his NFL career. In the last 20 years, he is one of just nine QBs to post a record at least 10 games under .500 ATS (Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins, Baker Mayfield, Colt McCoy and Sam Darnold).

• Darnold was 4-2 ATS in 2022, his first season above .500 ATS (below 2018-21).
• Darnold is 9-19 ATS on the road, which is the second-worst mark of 257 QBs over last 20 years, only ahead of Matt Hasselbeck.

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Steelers​

Rare Situation. The last time the Steelers were home dogs in Week 1 was back in 2010 vs. the Falcons and Matt Ryan. They've only been a home dog in Week 1 twice since 2000 (2010, 2000 vs. Ravens). Not to mention, this is the Steelers' first Week 1 home game since 2014 (eight straight Week 1 road games).

Some Momentum. The Steelers have a four-game ATS win streak entering this season, which is the longest of any team (won four straight games SU, second longest behind Kansas City).

• Pittsburgh has won three straight Week 1 matchups under Mike Tomlin (3-0 SU/ATS).
• Kenny Pickett posted a record of 8-4 ATS as a rookie last year, which included three straight ATS wins to close the season.

New Year? Diontae Johnson hasn’t scored a TD in 17 straight games (all of last season).

The Tomlin Way. The Steelers are 53-30-4 ATS (64%) as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,099, which makes him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years.

• The Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016, and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
• The Steelers are 16-4-3 ATS as home dogs under Tomlin (+$1,136, 14-9 SU).
• 
  The Steelers are 30-19-3 ATS and have covered the spread by an average of 2.4 PPG since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger.

TJ Matters. The Steelers were 8-2 SU and ATS with T.J. Watt last season, and they were 1-6 SU without him (2-4-1 ATS).

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  ATS cover margin with & without Watt last season: With: +5 PPG | W/O: -4.7 PPG

Steel Outlook. The Steelers are 66-1 to win the Super Bowl this season, their second-longest odds to win it all in the last 20 years.

• The Steelers have posted 19 consecutive non-losing seasons, which is tied with New England for the second-longest streak of that nature. Dallas currently holds the record with 21 straight under Tom Landry (1965-1985). The Steelers have posted 16 straight under Tomlin to begin coaching career (NFL record).

 

[itchyback]

Dog for Life. The Cardinals are projected to be underdogs in every game this season.

Lowest projected spreads for Arizona: Week 10 vs. Falcons and Week 11 at Texans.

Backup Time. With Kyler Murray sidelined, Arizona will start a backup — either Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune — in Week 1. The Cards are 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS with a backup QB in the Kyler Murray era (since 2019).

• Points scored in Arizona games last year without Murray: 13, 19, 16, 15, 10, 27.

Winter is Coming. The Cardinals play three cold-weather games on the road against Pittsburgh, Chicago and Philadelphia in December. Over the last 20 years, Arizona is 15-24 SU in temperatures that are 50 degrees or colder.

Long Shot. Over the last 20 years, only three teams have won their division with preseason odds of 20-1 or higher – and two have done it since 2020 Washington (2020) and Cincinnati (2021). The only team 20-1 or higher this year? The Cards.

20-1 or Longer – Win Division Last 20 Years

• 2021 Bengals, 25-1
• 2008 Dolphins, 25-1
• 2020 Washington, 22-1

Desert Drought. For the Cardinals, it has been a long time.

Longest Active Championship Drought – Four Major Sports

• NFL — Cardinals, 1948 (75 years)
• MLB — Guardians, 1949 (74 years)
• NBA — Kings, 1952 (72 years)
• NFL — Lions, 1958 (65 years)
• NBA — Hawks, 1959 (65 years)

Low, Low, Low. The Arizona Cardinals have the lowest win total this season at 4.5. Since 1990 (WC era), Arizona is the 26th team with a win total below five. The over is 14-9-2 as the 25 previous teams went over by 0.6 wins per season. This is the lowest Cardinals win total since 1992 (also 4.5).

Lowest Win Total in 17-Game Schedule Era (Since 2021)

• 4 — 2021 Texans (3 wins)
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  4.5 — 2023 Cardinals
• 4.5 — 2022 Falcons (7 wins)
• 4.5 — 2022 Texans (3 wins)
• 4.5 — 2021 Lions (4 wins)

Commanders​

Summer of Sam. With Sam Howell at quarterback, the Commanders are seven-point favorites in Week 1.

• The last two times Washington was at least a six-point favorite in Week 1 was in 2002 and 2005, and the last time it was higher than a six-point favorite in Week 1 was in 2000 (10.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers).
• It's Washington's first game as a seven-point favorite or higher since the Kirk Cousins/Eli Manning matchup in November 2017.

Riverboat Ron. Ron Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse in nine of 12 seasons. However, he's won Coach of the Year in two of the other three seasons.

Secretary of Defense. In the Commanders’ last 24 home games, the under is 18-5-1, which includes an 18-7-1 record since 2020. That’s No. 2 in the NFL behind the Giants at 18-6-1.

Similar Situation. Like the Colts, Washington has struggled to find stability at quarterback.

Most Consecutive Years With Unique Week 1 Starting QB

• 1987-93: Chargers (7)
• 1997-03: Ravens (7)
• 2013-19: Browns (7)
• 2017-23: Washington (7)
• 2017-23: Colts (7)
  

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