NFL Week #1 (Sept. 12)

[ppeter]

I know it is WAAAY early, but there are some very weak (IMO) lines out there at Pinny, Oly and the other books with the balls to put up early lines.

For example: Atl -3 (Pinny) over SF. No team is rebuilding more than Frisco. No Garcia, Owens, etc. Not only are they rebuilding, but starting qb Rattay "may" not be ready for the opener. Even if he is, he will probably miss significant preseason time and will be rusty. The backups have never thrown a regular season completion. All the big name free season qbs have been signed, so I think SF is stuck with this weak rotation. SF has "season fade" written all over them. Most outfits are not even offering season o/u totals for SF as they are expected to be so pathetic. Atl is locked and loaded for a superbowl run. Lots of new weapons for Vick and Co. Atl has traditionally played very well at SF, even in the old days when they were bad and SF was good. I expect this line to move to 7 when adjustments are made.

Also, Jax/Buff ov 34.5 (Pinny). This line is assuming Buffy's O begins where it left off last season. That simply will not be the case. Buffy has significantly upgraded its OL, one of the reasons for the offensive dropoff as the season went on. Jax is expected as a darkhorse for the division title this year as qb Leftwich has new weapons to throw to. Weather should not be an issue in Buffy in mid-Sept. I expect this line to go off around 39 when adjustments are made.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

2 great plays

i might some action right now i like those so much


good luck during the pig skin

 

[Oren1]

I'm gonna wait and see what some of these teams do in the preseason before jumping on anything, but I like both these plays. You'd think Buffalo's offense can only get better, you'd think, and 35 points isn't asking to much from these 2 teams. Last year I didn't see much line movement, at least for the sides, between this date and the opening kick-off, so I see no point in betting them now. Actually, I take that back, I had atlanta +2? over dallas I think before Vick's preseason injury and after Vick got hurt did it shift to +3 or something? Not sure how much that total might shift though.

 

[ppeter]

No doubt there is some risk that a star qb like Vick could go down during the preseason but in the case of Vick, I seriously doubt Atl will let lightning strike twice.

 

[ppeter]

Both lines have been creeping up in the last few weeks. Atl as high as -4 in some joints now, -3 -127 at Pinny. Jax/Buff o/u juice has moved to the over at Pinny.

I would advise anyone thinking of playing Atl to take it early, as I expect it to go off around -7 by gametime.

 

[Oren1]

I'm waiting until at least the first week of preseason is over... good luck

 

[THEGAME9000]

frisco covered the opener last year, which makes 1 in the last 7 openers.
atlanta on the other hand covered the last 6 straight openers.
short of a injury repeat of last year it will be safe to give anything less than 7 to sf, maybe more...
but alas we're getting ahead of ourselves, let's just appreciate the fact that, LORD FOOTBALL, is right around the corner.

GAME.

 

[Oren1]

amen, Game. are you ready for some football?!

 

[BigLou+]

I always find it's best to go against "public" teams like Atlanta on Opening Day. New coach and new coordinators usually means adjustment time early in the season. Just my two cents.

Big Lou

 

[panther]

atl vs san fran and atl is the public team???

panther

 

[BigLou+]

panther,

I'm not sure what your definition of a public team is but for me it refers to a team that is over hyped during the off-season. The signing of Jim Mora and the return of Mike Vick seems to have everyone thinking there is no stopping this team.

So far the Falcons have one playoff win since Vick took over and have gone 5-6-1 SU on the road with him as a starter, going 2-1 SU & ATS as a road favorite. Still waiting for this guy to live up to the hype.

Big Lou

 

[Moon88]

I'll have to agree with Big Lou. With the anticipation of Vick coming back making them a fan fav and the 49ers losing key players one should assume that more dollars will be coming in on the Falcons in this game and the season, hence "public" status. Vick is an entertaining QB and the fans love to watch this guy. I have plenty of friends and they have taking a liking to Vick and his Falcons. Is there any value in this week 1 matchup? I have no opinion at the moment.


greek has Atl-3.5
wwts has Atl-4 your on the right side of the move. All the best!

 

[ElIguana]

I agree w/ ppeter that this line will likely move in Atlanta's favor, but I like the dog. Wait for the line to get to Atlanta -6 or -7 and take the home dog. If it stays where it is, no way I'll take an unproven Falcons team giving points on the road.

 

[Drunkn247]

Big Lou are you serious? Vick was injured all of last year what did he play in 4 games if that? Live up to the hype??? Did they not go to Lambeau and beat the almighty Brett Favre on the "Frozen Tundra" in the playoffs 2 years ago. I think that is pretty good in his first real season as a starter. Especially some of those plays he made in that game. Your nuts if you don't think he is something special. Oh I almost forgot your super bowl picking system had the Titans to win it last year so you know exactly what your talking about...

 

[BigLou+]

drunkn247,

Has Atlanta won a Super Bowl? NFC Championship? Divisional round playoff game? A lousy division title? Let's see if he can accomplish any of those milestones before we enshrine him in Canton.

Big Lou

 

[Oren1]

Atlanta's total season wins prop is set at 9, with the under being a slight favorite at -120. Now, here's the fun part. The Whiners are set at 5 1/2 and the UNDER is actually being hit pretty hard, it's at -150, lol. Atlanta is the obvious choice. If you don't want to play a public favorite, I suggest betting a different game.

 

[BigLou+]

One more thing about Mike Vick. Supposedly he is redefining the QB position because of his escapability. I thought we already went down this road with Randall Cunningham back in the late 80's.

This guy was supposed to define the QB position as well because he would run down the field instead of throwing the football. (He was actually a decent punter though. He booted a 91 yarder against the Giants in 1989, the fourth longest punt in NFL history). Between 1986-1990 Cunningham averaged 646 yards rushing per season. His average completion percantage as a passer was 55% over that span. He made the pro bowl in 1988, 1989 & 1990. And the Eagles won how many playoffs games during that stretch? None. It wasn't until 1992 that Philadelphia won a playoff game with Cunningham as the starter, a year after he missed the 1991 seaosn with an injury.

Now it's Mike Vick who is going to change the QB position. In his only full season as a starter he rushed for 777 yards, had a 54.9 completion percentage, made the pro bowl and did win at Lambeau in the Wild Card round. But his "style" of play did him in for most of last season as he got hurt in the pre-season doing what else? Running down the field instead of trying to actually pass the football to a receiver. If he continues to run, run, run he will NEVER, repeat, NEVER, win a championship. Super Bowls are won by QB's who pass the football, not run for 777 yards during the regular season.

Big Lou

 

[Oren1]

Of course he's over-rated. But what do the Niners have to counter his above average talent? not a whole lot at this point that I can see...

 

[ppeter]

Another intangible in Atl's favor that you guys might not be aware of is their new Head Coach and new Offensive Coordinator were SF's Offensive and Defensive Coordinators last year, respectively. They should know SF's personel strengths and weaknesses INTIMATELY.

From what I understand, Erickson is not only clueless as a head coach but is also an SOB. Think Mora Jr. wants to stick it to him?

 

[Oren1]

I have no respect for Erickson, the Seahawks were purely mediocre, going 31-33 over 4 years with him at the helm. Watching one of their games kinda felt like watching paint dry.