NFL Week 1: Monday Plays

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Bills @ Patriots
Play: Under 47.5
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The market appears to be much more bullish than I in regards to the success the Bills will have this season. After all, they finished 7-9 last year and now have Owens and a more experienced Edwards, right? Let’s not forget, this team closed out the season with a 2-8 record, and a lot of sabermetric studies have shown Owens has not helped out an offense in years. I will not be surprised in the least that the Bills will finish with one of the worst offenses in the league, and should probably come out of the gates supporting such. The Bills recently fired their offensive coordinator will replaced it with a more simplistic game plan early. The last thing the Bills want is to turn this game into a shootout. Expect them to try to slow down the pace (contrary to opinions in which Van Pelt will try to execute), eat up the clock and grind out yards with their running game. The Patriots are not one of the better defenses in creating three and outs, and may struggle trying to defend the run without their main guy Seymour. This should allow the Bills to have some success on the ground and with short passes. But the bend-don’t break defense will make it hard for the Bills to finish drives with more than field goals.
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The Patriots will once again probably end up being a top 3 offense in football. However, they were ever to struggle, it will more than likely be early in the season, as Brady gets back into rhythm and gets accustomed to his brace. The Bills defense is nothing to get excited about. However, they have shored up their edge rush, which should allow them to have decent success putting pressure on Brady without throwing the kitchen sink at him. Expect the Patriots to be more committed to the running game early in the season as Brady works back into things. The Patriots should find success on offense, but they might not make it look as easy as they did a couple of years ago, and may be more committed to the ground to find this success.
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Chargers @ Raiders
Play: Under 42.5
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
In my opinion, the Chargers will probably end up having the best offense in football this season. So why come out of the gates taking an Under in their game? The Chargers offense has the propensity of peaking late in the season. The only thing about the Raiders that can be construed as reputable is their pass defense. If the Chargers want to find the most success on offense, they will have to be heavily committed to the running game. The success they do have on the ground will be somewhat limited, as <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1:place>Seymour</st1:place></st1:City> was a nice addition to shore up this weakness on the Raiders. The Chargers are also more than likely to have a comfortable lead wire to wire, which should allow them to be determined to eat up clock and run that much more.
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Last year, the Chargers defense was hampered by injuries and underachieved. I am expecting them to be one of the better and more balanced defenses in the league this year. The Raiders offense will simply be overmatched tonight, especially in the passing game. If they do want to find success, it will come from the ground, as Russell simply can not be relied on. However, expecting more than 17 points from this team may be wishful thinking.
 

Snake
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Thanks and GL, BG. Was already leaning that way due to the propensity of unders in week 1's past.
 
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buffet i just saw your thread, after i had made my own, i feel like me and you are really strong on this under as public is driving this up and its all over the forum as well, this looks like maybe the best play tonight do you agree ? i also believe people are sold on the 16-0 tom brady, not the 0-0 back from surgeries and roughed shoulder and picked up fred taylor to start running the ball more Tom Brady.
 

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I dont think 4 national tv games in a row go under, but good luck nonetheless

Are you suggesting there is a correlation between how the Titans offense faired a few days ago and the success of Brady tonight?

You are stepping foot into the territory of one of the more common gamblers fallacy's.
 

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buffet i just saw your thread, after i had made my own, i feel like me and you are really strong on this under as public is driving this up and its all over the forum as well, this looks like maybe the best play tonight do you agree ? i also believe people are sold on the 16-0 tom brady, not the 0-0 back from surgeries and roughed shoulder and picked up fred taylor to start running the ball more Tom Brady.

Yes, I think that it is the best play on the board tonight. I agree with the notion that they market may be pricing in Brady 2007 a bit too prematurely. I also think they are overpricing the Owens effect.
 

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Are you suggesting there is a correlation between how the Titans offense faired a few days ago and the success of Brady tonight?

You are stepping foot into the territory of one of the more common gamblers fallacy's.

I am a conspiracy theorist. I dont believe that it is possible to beat the numbers in any sport as vegas always has the advantage. I think the Bears were supposed to cover last night--phantom illegal contact call, reviewing the 2 pt conversion for a long time trying to find something wrong, etc.

The law of averages also comes into play with the overs as well.

Probably will catch a lot of heat for this post, but it's how i play my games and how i am winning the last 3 years. We do things totally opposite as I see you are a numbers guy as well, and I respect that, to each his own.

I am starting to like the NE under however as i think public is driving this line up with "Brady returning, T.O. as the face of the Buffalo offense, etc".

Good luck

:toast:
 

your worst nightmare
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Best of luck with your 2 MNF totals plays tonight!:toast:
Get the money!

 

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i also like the under as well. might be a little scary at first, but i expect the pats to grab a lead and limit brady's exposure in the 2nd half. if the preseason was any indication, the pats will have no chance of going 11-5 if brady goes down early
 

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Like that UNDER in the Bills/Pats.

To many people still think that this is still the same 16-0 Pats.

Offensive line is very suspect.
 
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superchuck, your falling into the belief that something is DUE, rule number one in sportsbetting, is to believe anything is DUE just because it hasnt occured in a given amount of time. This goes along with how vegas sets certain games at certain lines to get anyone with a coin to bet and a bookie. to suck that money right up. tonights game can and may go over. but to believe one HAS to go over is completely outrageous.
 
superchuck, your falling into the belief that something is DUE, rule number one in sportsbetting, is to believe anything is DUE just because it hasnt occured in a given amount of time. This goes along with how vegas sets certain games at certain lines to get anyone with a coin to bet and a bookie. to suck that money right up. tonights game can and may go over. but to believe one HAS to go over is completely outrageous.

totally agree with you....
 

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superchuck, your falling into the belief that something is DUE, rule number one in sportsbetting, is to believe anything is DUE just because it hasnt occured in a given amount of time. This goes along with how vegas sets certain games at certain lines to get anyone with a coin to bet and a bookie. to suck that money right up. tonights game can and may go over. but to believe one HAS to go over is completely outrageous.

One of these games will go over tonight. I dont want to clutter up bg's thread anymore so i will so you guys later on tonight in the in game threads
 

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buffet, just heard bills gonna use the no huddle nearly the whole game. this is good and bad. good as in maybe get some first downs and stall for fg's, bad, they get down by two tds, and either NE takes one maybe 2 to the house on D and / or new england gets soft zone for a buff late score or two.. opinions ? and wouldnt they be holding the ball to keep brady off the field, im baffled..
 

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