True on NYJ. Jets have literally no future value according to the survivorgrid site. Phi, Chi, and Pitts top 3 in that order on yahoo, ofp, and runyourpool
| Team | Yahoo | OFP | RunYourPool | Average | 24hr +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 48.8% | 36.6% | 35.4% | 40.3% | +0.2% |
| CHI | 17.6% | 17.8% | 15.1% | 16.9% | +0.2% |
| PIT | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | - |
| KC | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | -0.1% |
1st week is always smoke and mirrors. Until the dust settles after week 2, try and just "survive". Amazes me how many folks go out week 1 trying to save the teams they believe are locks for later. In a massive pool, I can sort of see that, but, you need to survive to live another week. Don't mess around week 1 or 2....just my 2 cents...
I agree. Bears and Jets for me. Derek Carr will get a rough welcome to the NFL from the New York D. I feel good about the Bears offense but less so about the defense. Henne getting the start for Jax. Why? If I was the owner or a fa I would be pissed. This is tantamount to throwing the game. Even so, I just have a funny feeling about that one...
| Team | Yahoo | OFP | RunYourPool | Average | 24hr +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 48.6% | 40.4% | 38.9% | 42.6% | -0.4% |
| CHI | 20.6% | 20.6% | 18.5% | 19.9% | +0.2% |
| PIT | 8.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | +0.1% |
| NYJ | 4.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | +0.2% |
| KC | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | -0.1% |
| DEN | 1.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | +0.1% |
| DET | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | - |
| NE | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | - |
| SEA | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | -0.2% |
| SF | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | - |
| NO | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | - |
| MIN | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | - |
| STL | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | - |
| HOU | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | - |
| TB | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | - |
| CAR | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | - |
| ARI | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | - |
| BAL | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | - |
| WAS | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | - |
| SD | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | - |
| GB | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | - |
| OAK | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | - |
| CIN | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| NYG | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| JAX | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| CLE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| DAL | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
| BUF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
| ATL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
| IND | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - |
| MIA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - |
| TEN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
| Your current pool size | Win Your Pool | Short Term Success | Survive The Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less Than 50 People |
Detroit
Philadelphia
NY Jets
Chicago |
Detroit
Denver
Philadelphia
New England |
Philadelphia
Detroit
Denver
Chicago |
| 50-200 People |
Detroit
NY Jets
Philadelphia
Denver |
Detroit
Denver
New England
NY Jets |
Philadelphia
Detroit
Denver
Chicago |
| More Than 200 People |
Detroit
NY Jets
Denver
Philadelphia |
Detroit
Denver
New England
NY Jets |
Philadelphia
Detroit
Denver
Chicago |
| These picks maximize expected prize winnings. They often take higher elimination risks to avoid picking popular favorites. | These picks ignore the future value of saving a team for later. They represent the best value picks for this specific week. | These picks ignore both current and future value. They simply show teams with the highest odds to win. |
Week 1 of 2014 is going to test our mettle right off the bat. We've got an overwhelmingly popular pick, Philadelphia, that is worth avoiding unless you're playing multiple entries, and a couple top options that will probably make a few of you gulp.
Top Options (all pool sizes)
Detroit Lions (vs. New York Giants)
TR Elimination Risk: 25% (#3) -- Money Line: -242 (#7)
Popularity: 3% -- Future Value: 0.6 to 1.1
The Lions are currently projected with the third highest win odds of the week according to our models (75%) but are being picked by only 3% of the public, and they don't have a ton of future value (best future options: Week 5 vs BUF, Weeks 13/14/15 vs CHI/TB/MIN). By our numbers, they're the best pick this week for all pool sizes. However, it's worth noting that their money line is only the 7th highest of the week, so this is a pick that relies somewhat on trusting our models, which are high on Detroit. If you go strictly by the betting markets, the Lions are still a solid pick, just not the very best.
New York Jets (vs. Oakland Raiders)
TR Elimination Risk: 31% (#6) -- Money Line: -252 (#6)
Popularity: 5% -- Future Value: 0
The Jets are a bit riskier than the Lions according to our models, though the betting markets put them as basically even with Detroit. New York is also a touch more popular. However, this appears to be the Jets' easiest game of the season, unless the Raiders end up much better than everyone expects, and they have essentially no future value after Week 1. According to our models, the Jets are the second best pick. Ignoring our models and looking only at the Vegas money line, the Jets jump into the top spot.
Top Options (some pool sizes)
Chicago Bears (vs. Buffalo Bills)
TR Elimination Risk: 27% (#4) -- Money Line: -300 (#3)
Popularity: 18% -- Future Value: 0
The Bears have little to no future value (Week 11 vs MIN and Week 12 vs TB seem the only games that might end up as easy as this one), and are a relatively low risk pick, especially according to Vegas. However, their popularity hurts them compared to the Lions and Jets. In short, the Bears are modestly less risky, but 3-6 times as popular. That hurts the most in large pools, where avoiding popular teams and taking smart risks is most important.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
TR Elimination Risk: 19% (#1) -- Money Line: -510 (#1)
Popularity: 43% -- Future Value: 0
The Eagles are clearly the lowest risk pick of the week. Based on what we know now, this is also their easiest game of the season, and our models don't give them much future value either. However, being picked by over 40% of the public is a big, big negative. As a result of their popularity, they have only the 9th highest Immediate EV (a measure of their value as a Survivor pick just for Week 1) in large pools. However, in very small pools, where your pick(s) can actually account for a decent chunk of the overall pool picking percentages, the Eagles look like a reasonable choice.
Worth A Look (all pool sizes)
Denver Broncos (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
TR Elimination Risk: 22% (#2) -- Money Line: -330 (#2)
Popularity: 3% -- Future Value: 5.9 to 7.5
The Broncos are a low risk pick, and they're unpopular, but they have tons of future value. Right now we project five future games where they'll have higher win odds than this one, and several other games where they might still be a legitimate pick option. So it's generally going to be better to save them than to use them this week.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Diego Chargers)
TR Elimination Risk: 34% (#9) -- Money Line: -160 (#12)
Popularity: 1% -- Future Value: 1.1 to 1.3
The Cardinals are highly unpopular, and don't have a ton of future value, which means they are worth a look. But they are also a significantly higher risk pick than any of the teams above.
St. Louis Rams (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
TR Elimination Risk: 38% (#12) -- Money Line: -179 (#11)
Popularity: 1% -- Future Value: 0.3 to 0.6
The Rams are even riskier than the Cardinals according to our models (though not Vegas), but that is balanced out somewhat by their lower future value.
New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins)
TR Elimination Risk: 30% (#5) -- Money Line: -218 (#8)
Popularity: 3% -- Future Value: 3.6 to 5.1
Although unpopular, the Patriots aren't any safer or less popular than our top options, the Lions and Jets. However, the Patriots have much more future value, which means you'll almost certainly want to save them.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
TR Elimination Risk: 35% (#10) -- Money Line: -285 (#4)
Popularity: 9% -- Future Value: 0.2 to 0.5
The Steelers are relatively low risk according to the betting markets, but our models are more pessimistic about their chances against the Browns. But even ignoring our models and going by the betting markets, the Steelers are a worse option than the Jets this week due to their higher popularity and higher future value.
Top Options (all pool sizes)
Detroit Lions (vs. New York Giants)
TR Elimination Risk: 25% (#3) -- Money Line: -242 (#7)
Popularity: 3% -- Future Value: 0.6 to 1.1
The Lions are currently projected with the third highest win odds of the week according to our models (75%) but are being picked by only 3% of the public, and they don't have a ton of future value (best future options: Week 5 vs BUF, Weeks 13/14/15 vs CHI/TB/MIN). By our numbers, they're the best pick this week for all pool sizes. However, it's worth noting that their money line is only the 7th highest of the week, so this is a pick that relies somewhat on trusting our models, which are high on Detroit. If you go strictly by the betting markets, the Lions are still a solid pick, just not the very best.
New York Jets (vs. Oakland Raiders)
TR Elimination Risk: 31% (#6) -- Money Line: -252 (#6)
Popularity: 5% -- Future Value: 0
The Jets are a bit riskier than the Lions according to our models, though the betting markets put them as basically even with Detroit. New York is also a touch more popular. However, this appears to be the Jets' easiest game of the season, unless the Raiders end up much better than everyone expects, and they have essentially no future value after Week 1. According to our models, the Jets are the second best pick. Ignoring our models and looking only at the Vegas money line, the Jets jump into the top spot.
Top Options (some pool sizes)
Chicago Bears (vs. Buffalo Bills)
TR Elimination Risk: 27% (#4) -- Money Line: -300 (#3)
Popularity: 18% -- Future Value: 0
The Bears have little to no future value (Week 11 vs MIN and Week 12 vs TB seem the only games that might end up as easy as this one), and are a relatively low risk pick, especially according to Vegas. However, their popularity hurts them compared to the Lions and Jets. In short, the Bears are modestly less risky, but 3-6 times as popular. That hurts the most in large pools, where avoiding popular teams and taking smart risks is most important.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
TR Elimination Risk: 19% (#1) -- Money Line: -510 (#1)
Popularity: 43% -- Future Value: 0
The Eagles are clearly the lowest risk pick of the week. Based on what we know now, this is also their easiest game of the season, and our models don't give them much future value either. However, being picked by over 40% of the public is a big, big negative. As a result of their popularity, they have only the 9th highest Immediate EV (a measure of their value as a Survivor pick just for Week 1) in large pools. However, in very small pools, where your pick(s) can actually account for a decent chunk of the overall pool picking percentages, the Eagles look like a reasonable choice.
Worth A Look (all pool sizes)
Denver Broncos (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
TR Elimination Risk: 22% (#2) -- Money Line: -330 (#2)
Popularity: 3% -- Future Value: 5.9 to 7.5
The Broncos are a low risk pick, and they're unpopular, but they have tons of future value. Right now we project five future games where they'll have higher win odds than this one, and several other games where they might still be a legitimate pick option. So it's generally going to be better to save them than to use them this week.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Diego Chargers)
TR Elimination Risk: 34% (#9) -- Money Line: -160 (#12)
Popularity: 1% -- Future Value: 1.1 to 1.3
The Cardinals are highly unpopular, and don't have a ton of future value, which means they are worth a look. But they are also a significantly higher risk pick than any of the teams above.
St. Louis Rams (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
TR Elimination Risk: 38% (#12) -- Money Line: -179 (#11)
Popularity: 1% -- Future Value: 0.3 to 0.6
The Rams are even riskier than the Cardinals according to our models (though not Vegas), but that is balanced out somewhat by their lower future value.
New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins)
TR Elimination Risk: 30% (#5) -- Money Line: -218 (#8)
Popularity: 3% -- Future Value: 3.6 to 5.1
Although unpopular, the Patriots aren't any safer or less popular than our top options, the Lions and Jets. However, the Patriots have much more future value, which means you'll almost certainly want to save them.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
TR Elimination Risk: 35% (#10) -- Money Line: -285 (#4)
Popularity: 9% -- Future Value: 0.2 to 0.5
The Steelers are relatively low risk according to the betting markets, but our models are more pessimistic about their chances against the Browns. But even ignoring our models and going by the betting markets, the Steelers are a worse option than the Jets this week due to their higher popularity and higher future value.
Not much movement on consensus
| Team | Yahoo | OFP | RunYourPool | Average | 24hr +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 48.6% | 40.1% | 38.7% | 42.5% | -0.5% |
| CHI | 20.6% | 20.7% | 18.7% | 20.0% | +0.2% |
| PIT | 8.5% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | +0.2% |
| NYJ | 4.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | +0.3% |
| KC | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | -0.1% |
| DEN | 1.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | +0.1% |
| DET | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | - |
| NE | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | - |
| SEA | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| SF | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | - |
| NO | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | - |
| MIN | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | - |
| STL | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | - |
| HOU | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | - |
| TB | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | - |
| CAR | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | - |
| ARI | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | - |
| BAL | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | - |
| WAS | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | - |
| SD | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | - |
| GB | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | - |
| OAK | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | - |
| CIN | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| NYG | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| JAX | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| CLE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| DAL | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
| BUF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
| ATL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
| IND | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - |
| MIA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - |
| TEN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - |
Your current pool size Win Your Pool Short Term Success Survive The Week Less Than 50 People
50-200 People
More Than 200 People
These picks maximize expected prize winnings. They often take higher elimination risks to avoid picking popular favorites.
These picks ignore the future value of saving a team for later. They represent the best value picks for this specific week.
These picks ignore both current and future value. They simply show teams with the highest odds to win.
This are very helpful....where do u get this from?
Love Chicago even more then I did when I had to lock in 1/2 the pools on Thursday...not just being a homer either....Bears receivers all have height over the defense...Cutler can just throw it up and these guys will go get it....Plus...with the tough schedule, don't like them much down the road. So Chicago a very solid pick imo....Also used the jets in a few because quite frankly..they usually suck but today, Oakland is like 0-13 going east...plus a rookie QB = diasaster for Oakland....BOL gang....
